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Indian Transformer Market

Transformer Industry Status


Transformer industry is suffering since last 2 years with low recovery and cash loss and phase is worst then 1997-2001 phase due to higher installed capacity Transformer Market is growing 10% in volumes but price recovery is lower by 15% to 20% compared with 2006-07 Also growth is 20% for voltage higher then 220kV like HVDC 765kV & Reactors that is where Tier-1 player get better recovery 2013 will see small recovery as pent up demand for 220kV and below will increase and market will grow by 15% , prices should improve by 3% point

Capacity & Demand


Contribution pts 200 180 160 140 Demand Capacity

Loss Zone

Profit Zone

Capacity is 280000 MVA 300000


Loss Zone
Capacity
250000 200000

Demand is 200000 MVA Demand


150000 100000

MVA

Index

120 100 80 60 prior to 94-95

Addition of 50 % +

50000

0 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 Note Index taken with base of Prior 94-96 years, Source IEEMA

Additional capacity of 50% Is the trigger

Movement of Material Cost & Sales Price & Contribution


Sales Price (Comparison) Material cost (Comparison) Contibution Points 200 180

160

Expected to improve In 2013-14 by %

Index

140

33

13

120

100

Price drop is 20%+ thus shrinking contribution to avg. 16% or less

80

60

While Material cost has increase by 7%, the Sales price has come down 20%, this explains present crisis of industry.

Identical graph, when Demand & Capacity & Contributions seem together
Sales price (Comparison) Material cost (Comparison) Contribution pts Demand Capacity

Loss Zone
160

Profit Zone

Loss Zone/BE or marginal profit


Capacity

300000

140

250000

MVA

Index

120

Demand

200000

150000 100 100000 80

50000

60 prior to 94-95 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 94-96 years, Source IEEMA Note Index taken with base of Prior 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16

This will trigger action from the industries in year 2012-13 and in 2014-15, which will be a)Capacity reduction b)Cost cutting c)Better terms of payment d)Price increase by 3-4%

Manufacturers Across India


Technical Associates, Uttaranchal , Accurate Transformers, Uttaranchal Kerala Electrical & Allied Engg. EFG Danish Private Limited ABB Transformers & Rectifiers Voltamp Transformer AREVA T&D Rajasthan Transformers & Switchgears , Delhi PME, UP

Uttaranchal Rajasthan

Kotsons, UP East India Udyog,

Uttar Pradesh Delhi

Mirzapur Electrical Ind Tesla Transformers Limited

Gujarat
Bharat Bijlee EMCO Kirloskar Power Equipment Ltd High Volt Electricals

Madhya Pradesh

West Bengal Orissa

Crompton Greaves BHEL Andrew Yule & Co

Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh

Alfa Transformers Ltd Orissa Transformers Ltd Aarkay Transformers

Marson's Limited RTS Power Corporation

Universal Transformers Southern Power Equipment Company Kamath Transformers

Karnataka

Vijai Electricals Pan-Electro Technic Enterprises The Thana Electric Supply Company Venkateswara Electrical Industries (p) ltd Indo Tech transformers P.S Electricals

Tamil Nadu
Transformers & Electricals Kerala

Kerala

Competitor Market Matrix


PGCIL KV Ranges 765 kV Total 400kV Total Reactors Total Units 20 10 30 24 6 30 30 10 40 6 MVA 270 500 315 500 80 120 100 Total 5400 5000 10400 7560 3000 10560 2400 1200 3600 600 Units 20 10 30 14 10 24 5 5 10 15 NTPC+ Large IPP MVA 270 270 270 315 80 120 80 Power Transformer Market Segmentation STATE UTILITY IPP renewable part Total 5400 2700 8100 3780 3150 6930 400 600 1000 1200 Units 10 10 48 6 54 MVA 270 Total 2700 2700 15120 3000 18120 Units 10 10 10 10 MVA 270 Total 2700 2700 2700 2700 Units 10 10 15 10 25 INDUSTRY MVA 270 Total 2700 2700 4050 1600 5650 Grand Total (MVA)

23900
315 500 270 270 160

41260 4600

220kV

Total

6 10

100

600 1000

15 30

80 50

1200 1200 1500

132kV & 66kV

Total Grand Total (MVA)

10

1000

45

2700

68 20 40 114 242 240 60 200 30 54 44 628

160 200 50 100 50 63 40 50 16 10

10880 4000 2000 11400 28280 12000 3780 8000 1500 864 440 26584

40

50

2000

30

50

1500

33580
40 2000 20 50 100 50 50 100 50 40 20 2000 3500 5000 2000 1000

39284
0 0 100 300 10 1000 9000

26160

19930

75684

7400 to 9000 MVA

20850 to 25000 MVA

142624

Total production for MPT & LPT is around 175,000MVA + Imports around 20,000 MVA & Export around 20,000MVA = 215,000MVA

Competitor Focus by End User Segment


Production by end User (MVA)
Prolec GE Tech Asso MVA BBL Vijai T&R EMCO Voltamp AREVA ABB Siemens IMP Kanohar TELK BHEL CGL Kirloskar

CEN UTILITY

550 6050 2200 2200

1100 6600 2200 1100

2500 4000 2000 1500

900 4500 1800 1800

375 1500 2250 3375 7500 300 750 1800

8750 3750 6250 6250

3600 1600 1200 1600

4000 800 800 2400 8000

500 3000 750 750 5000

400 2400 800 600 4000

0 3150 0 350 3500

600 4500 600 300

11200 8400 9800 2800 1400 8400 4200 7000 240 240 1920

SEB

EPC

INDUSTRIAL

PROD

11000 11000 10000 9000

3000 25000 8000

6000 28000 28000 2400

Tier-1 players like AREVA, Siemens, ABB etc., concentrate on Central Utilities. Whereas Tier 2 players like BBL, Vijay, T&R, EMCO concentrate on SEBs BHEL and CGL are prominent in both Central and State Utilities Industry segment is small market size about 35000 MVA+

Indian Transformer Market


Transformer Market, India 250,000MVA

REC, 36,000, 14%

Dry type, 10,000, 4%

Oil DT, 29,000, 12%


Oil PT, 175,000, 70%

Imports 20000 MVA extra so 195000 MVA

Indian Transformer Market


Power Transformer Market, India 175,000 MVA+ 20,000 Import + 20,000 MVA export

Industrial 21%

Cental 25%

EPC 15% SEBs 39%

SEBs (State Utilities) are 40% of the market 400kV, 765kV are 42% of the market Industry only 20 %

Central Utility 43,000 MVA


Others 10% CGL 20% T&R 6% BHEL 26%

Power Transformer Market -170,000MVA

State Utility - 70,000MVA


TELK 7% BHEL 16% CGL 14% Others 7% BBL 10% Vijai 11%

Areva 21% ABB 8%

Techasso 5% Kanohar 4% IMP 5% Areva 6% EMCO T&R 8% 7%

Siemens 9%

Industrial 35,000 MVA


Prolec GE 5% ABB 5% Kirloskar 6% EMCO 5% BBL 6% Voltamp Siemens 10% 7% Others 18% Areva 18% CGL 14%

EPC 29,000 MVA


Others 24% BBL 7% Vijai 8% T&R 7% Voltamp 8%

BHEL 10% CGL 20% Areva 22%

ABB, Siemens, BHEL, CGL, ALSTOM focus on central utility & Industrial Market + 765kV and 400kV + Reactor + HVDC Tier 2 players concentrate on EPC & State utility market

765kV - 24,000MVA
BHEL 10% T&R 10%

400kV - 40,000MVA
Vijay 5% TELK 5% BHEL 17% Siemens 15% 765kV 16% 400kV 26% Others 11% CGL 17% ABB* 15% Areva 15%

Chinese 20%

Areva 22% ABB* 13%

CGL 25%

220kV 26% Others 132kV & 66kV - 50,000MVA 132kV 10% 32% 220kV - 40,000MVA Areva Techasso Areva 6% 4% CGL 9% Others 8% IMP IMP BHEL 15% 7% 5% 8% Power Transformer Market 170,000 MVA TELK Kanohar Kanohar BHEL 6% 5% 7% 13% Emco Voltamp Vijay 9% 4% Vijay 10% BBL 10% T&R TELK Emco 10% T&R 10%Voltamp 5% BBL 9% 7% 8% 9%

CGL 6%

400kV & 765kV market is covered by ABB, AREVA, Siemens, CGL, T&R & Chinese manufacturers 230kV & 132kV are crowded market with many players

Distribution Transformer Matrix (by MVA)


Total MVA 10000MVA Total MVA 29000 MVA

Voltamp Voltamp

Distribution Transformer Matrix


Total Value $M680 Total MVA 39000MVA

Competitors Production & Revenue


35000 Sales to other 30000 EPC 25000 Own System consumption 20000 Industry State Central 15000 10000 5000 0

Own Consumption and Central Focus

Mainly State Focused

Range Own production

BHEL

CGL

Areva

ABB 10000

Siemens 8000

L&T

Vijai

Emco

T&R

BBL Voltamp IMP Kanohar Tech Ass 7500 5000 4000 3500

Prolec GE Kirloskar Aditya 3000 2400 2000

28000 25000 21000

11000 9000 10000 10000

MPT 500, DT Outsourced (MVA) 500 Total Sales (MVA)

Nil

MPT - MPT MPT MPT 800, DT 800, DT - 2000, DT 4000, DT - 1000 200 500 -500 11300 10500 5000

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil 7500

Nil 5000

Nil 4000

Nil 3500

Nil 3000

Nil 2400

Nil 2000

29000 25000 22000

11000 9000 10000 10000

Notes - ABB, Siemens When HVDC order comes, own system becomes major part, Aditya Produces 1000 MVA for CGL

Siemens has EPC, the own consumption is around 3000MVA, they procure 2500MVA from outside ABB having order for HVDC from their own EPC 3000MVA, they procure 2500MVA from outside Areva has EPC, the own consumption is around 4000MVA, they procure 2500MVA from outside L&T procure 4000MVA from outside + 5000MVA smaller EPC very competitive = 16500MVA

Thank you very much