Business Futures 2010

Business Futures 2010
A Roux
(Editor)
October 2010
Copyright Warning
All rights reserved.

This publication is confidential and reserved for use by Associates of the Institute for Futures Research only.
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Contents
Contents
List of Figures ..................................................................................................................................................... vii
List of Tables .................................................................................................................................................... xiii
List of Exhibits .................................................................................................................................................... xviii
List of Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................................. xx
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................. xxvii
Institute for Futures Research Associates .......................................................................................................... xxviii
Institute for Futures Research Personnel ............................................................................................................. xxx
Chapter 1: Thinking about the Future and Strategic Transformation

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................1-3
Business foresight .................................................................................................................................................1-4
Introduction: Strategy and futures thinking ...................................................................................................1-4
Barriers to a futures thinking mode ...............................................................................................................1-5
Forecasting, planning and strategy...............................................................................................................1-8
The need for sound judgement and purposefulness.....................................................................................1-8
Knowledge and foresight ..............................................................................................................................1-9
Measuring and making the future ...............................................................................................................1-11
Conceptual frameworks for foresight .........................................................................................................1-11
Long-range forecasting: Methods and techniques ...............................................................................................1-17
Statistical forecasting/extrapolation ............................................................................................................1-18
Environmental scanning .............................................................................................................................1-19
Delphi studies .............................................................................................................................................1-23
Scenarios ...................................................................................................................................................1-23
Global certainties, uncertainties and challenges.........................................................................................1-26
Using the systems approach in thinking about the future ...................................................................................1-33
Systems and systems thinking ...................................................................................................................1-33
Idealised redesign ...............................................................................................................................................1-36
Idealised redesign defined .........................................................................................................................1-36
The process of idealised redesign .............................................................................................................1-36
The contributions of idealised redesign to organisational transformation ...................................................1-37
Managing complexity through corporate governance ..........................................................................................1-38
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................1-38
Corporate governance ................................................................................................................................1-38
Catalysts for change in corporate governance in South Africa ...................................................................1-39
The triple bottom line ..................................................................................................................................1-40
References .................................................................................................................................................1-40
Chapter 2: The Social Environment

Executive summary ...............................................................................................................................................2-3
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................2-4
Socio-political challenges: Development, democracy and diversity .......................................................................2-7
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................2-7
Social identities, political maturity, equality and diversity............................................................................2-10
Identities constructed; identities reconstructed; identities in flux.................................................................2-12
Race and issues of resource distribution ...................................................................................................2-19
Identity, nation-building and democracy .....................................................................................................2-29
Language ...................................................................................................................................................2-31
Movements of faith, religion and the world .................................................................................................2-36
Religion in the history of South Africa .........................................................................................................2-51
Religious disaffiliation and religious association: Global and national trends .............................................2-53
Families and society ...................................................................................................................................2-56
References .................................................................................................................................................2-65
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Human development: People are the real wealth of a nation ..............................................................................2-69

Understanding human development ...........................................................................................................2-69
The Human Development Reports and measuring human development ...................................................2-70
The links between human development and economic growth ..................................................................2-74
Human development in South Africa ..........................................................................................................2-75
Millennium Development Goals ..................................................................................................................2-78
Happiness and human development ......................................................................................................... 2082
References .................................................................................................................................................2-83
Demography ........................................................................................................................................................2-85
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................2-85
Global population trends .............................................................................................................................2-85
Sub-Saharan Africa and SADC population trends ......................................................................................2-95
South African population trends..................................................................................................................2-99
Implications of longer term demographic trends .......................................................................................2-109
Population policies....................................................................................................................................2-111
References ...............................................................................................................................................2-112
Urbanisation ......................................................................................................................................................2-114
Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................2-114
Global urbanisation trends ........................................................................................................................2-114
African urbanisation trends .......................................................................................................................2-121
South African urbanisation trends.............................................................................................................2-125
Urban problems in the world and South Africa .........................................................................................2-129
Implications of urbanisation trends ...........................................................................................................2-136
Urban management and governance .......................................................................................................2-137
References ...............................................................................................................................................2-139
Health and health care ......................................................................................................................................2-141
Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................2-141
Health indicators .......................................................................................................................................2-141
Infectious disease patterns .......................................................................................................................2-152
Health care resources ..............................................................................................................................2-167
Implications of health trends .....................................................................................................................2-172
Health care policy .....................................................................................................................................2-173
References ...............................................................................................................................................2-175
Crime and violence ............................................................................................................................................2-179
Global crime trends ..................................................................................................................................2-179
Crime trends in Africa ...............................................................................................................................2-184
Crime trends in South Africa .....................................................................................................................2-187
The South African criminal justice system ................................................................................................2-195
The South African correctional services ...................................................................................................2-197
Initiatives to prevent and combat crime and violence in South Africa .......................................................2-198
References ...............................................................................................................................................2-202
Education and training .......................................................................................................................................2-205
Introduction: Why is education and training important? ............................................................................2-205
Global and regional education trends .......................................................................................................2-205
South African education and training trends .............................................................................................2-216
Socio-economic implications ....................................................................................................................2-236
Education policy developments ................................................................................................................2-241
References ...............................................................................................................................................2-245
Chapter 3: The Political Environment

A globalising, world: Opportunities, security threats and South Africa ...................................................................3-6
Introduction: Globalisation and globalism .....................................................................................................3-6
Trends ........................................................................................................................................................3-11
Issues .........................................................................................................................................................3-15
Inequality and the marginalisation of the majority world .............................................................................3-21
Democracy .................................................................................................................................................3-23
(In)Stability and social cohesion .................................................................................................................3-25
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Policy choices .............................................................................................................................................3-26

Key countries and global re-polarisation? ...................................................................................................3-28
South Africas external relations ..........................................................................................................................3-37
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................3-37
South Africas foreign policy: Issues and uncertainties ...............................................................................3-38
Relations in Southern Africa .......................................................................................................................3-53
SADC as a regional integrative initiative .....................................................................................................3-54
Africa and the future ............................................................................................................................................3-56
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................3-56
Historical considerations .............................................................................................................................3-56
African initiatives.........................................................................................................................................3-58
Democratisation and human rights in Africa ...............................................................................................3-65
South Africa and the developmental state ...........................................................................................................3-72
The South African transition .......................................................................................................................3-72
A South African developmental state ..........................................................................................................3-74
South Africa and democratic consolidation .................................................................................................3-78
The provincial political environment in South Africa ...................................................................................3-86
Local government transformation ...............................................................................................................3-90
Black economic empowerment ...................................................................................................................3-97
Land reform ................................................................................................................................................3-99
References ...............................................................................................................................................3-105
Chapter 4: The Technological Environment

The nature and importance of technology .............................................................................................................4-5
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................4-5
Technological change and forecasting: The technology S-curve and curves of growth .............................4-7
Technological innovation and the competitive advantage of nations ............................................................4-8
Does a better technological situation lead to increased wealth and a better standard
of living? ................................................................................................................................................4-10
Infrastructural indicators .............................................................................................................................4-11
The strategic management of technology ............................................................................................................4-14
Why manage technology? ..........................................................................................................................4-14
The management of technology .................................................................................................................4-15
Responsibility for technology management ................................................................................................4-16
The enabling and new technologies: Developments and trends ............................................................................4-18
Technological progress and technological transformations ........................................................................4-18
The enabling and new technologies ...........................................................................................................4-20
Information and communication technologies ......................................................................................................4-23
Biotechnology, genetic engineering and proteomics ............................................................................................4-36
Materials technologies .........................................................................................................................................4-44
Emerging energy technologies ............................................................................................................................4-50
Transport technologies ........................................................................................................................................4-56
Environmentalism ................................................................................................................................................4-59
Africas and South Africas position in R&D: Expenditure and manpower ...........................................................4-61
Expenditure on R&D ...................................................................................................................................4-62
S&T in Africa indicators and observations ...............................................................................................4-63
Science and technology research excellence at South African institutions ................................................4-66
Centres of excellence .................................................................................................................................4-67
Skilled manpower .......................................................................................................................................4-68
Science and technology policy ............................................................................................................................4-71
Technology policy: Purpose and definition .................................................................................................4-71
Key points regarding national science and technology policies ..................................................................4-71
Science and technology policy in South Africa ...........................................................................................4-72
South Africa is implementing a national technology strategy, but challenges remain .................................4-81
References ..........................................................................................................................................................4-82
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Chapter 5: Natural Environment

Land Resources ....................................................................................................................................................5-5
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................5-5
Land-use patterns and change .....................................................................................................................5-5
Climate change and African agriculture ......................................................................................................5-14
Food production trends in South Africa ......................................................................................................5-16
Food security trends ...................................................................................................................................5-19
Policy action to achieve food security for all ...............................................................................................5-24
Land reform ................................................................................................................................................5-27
Grasslands and forest resources ................................................................................................................5-30
References .................................................................................................................................................5-36
Water Resources .................................................................................................................................................5-39
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................5-39
Global water resources ...............................................................................................................................5-39
South Africas water resources ...................................................................................................................5-45
Water resource management and policy ....................................................................................................5-52
Implications and conclusion ........................................................................................................................5-56
References .................................................................................................................................................5-57
Ocean and fish resources ....................................................................................................................................5-60
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................5-60
Global fish resources ..................................................................................................................................5-60
South Africas fish resources ......................................................................................................................5-67
South Africas estuaries ..............................................................................................................................5-71
References .................................................................................................................................................5-72
Mineral resources ................................................................................................................................................5-74
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................5-74
The global economy: From crisis to recovery .............................................................................................5-75
The mining industry growth, development and employment task team ......................................................5-83
Contribution of mining to the economy of South Africa ...............................................................................5-86
References .................................................................................................................................................5-89
Energy resources ................................................................................................................................................5-91
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................5-91
Total energy................................................................................................................................................5-92
Oil ...............................................................................................................................................................5-95
Coal ............................................................................................................................................................5-97
Natural gas .................................................................................................................................................5-98
Uranium and nuclear energy ......................................................................................................................5-99
Renewable energy....................................................................................................................................5-100
Electricity ..................................................................................................................................................5-106
Energy security in the South African context ............................................................................................5-108
Energy legislation in South Africa .............................................................................................................5-110
Global climate change and energy use ....................................................................................................5-110
References ...............................................................................................................................................5-114
Biodiversity ........................................................................................................................................................5-116
Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................5-116
Global biodiversity loss .............................................................................................................................5-117
st
Biodiversity futures for the 21 century.....................................................................................................5-122
Biodiversity in Africa .................................................................................................................................5-123
Biodiversity in South Africa .......................................................................................................................5-123
Biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration ...............................................................................5-126
Ecotourism................................................................................................................................................5-129
References ...............................................................................................................................................5-130
Waste and pollution ...........................................................................................................................................5-132
Introduction: Increasing pollution ..............................................................................................................5-132
The worlds worst pollution problems ........................................................................................................5-132
Solid waste ...............................................................................................................................................5-137
Water pollution..........................................................................................................................................5-142
Atmospheric (air) pollution ........................................................................................................................5-149
Noise pollution ..........................................................................................................................................5-157
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Space pollution .........................................................................................................................................5-158

Light pollution ...........................................................................................................................................5-158
Legislation for the management of waste .................................................................................................5-159
Commercial opportunities in the management of waste and pollution ......................................................5-161
References ...............................................................................................................................................5-165
Global climate change .......................................................................................................................................5-171
Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................5-171
Background ..............................................................................................................................................5-171
Driving forces: Greenhouse gas emissions ..............................................................................................5-172
Radiative forcing .......................................................................................................................................5-173
Observable changes in the environment ..................................................................................................5-174
Climate change trends ..............................................................................................................................5-175
Impacts of climate change ........................................................................................................................5-177
Climate change and risk ...........................................................................................................................5-180
Business exposure to climate change and associated risks .....................................................................5-181
Sector-specific impacts of global climate change .....................................................................................5-185
Dangers of abrupt climate change ............................................................................................................5-188
Possible impacts of extreme or abrupt climate changes ...........................................................................5-189
The current state of the carbon market .....................................................................................................5-190
Mitigation: Biofuels and renewables .........................................................................................................5-191
The governance of climate change...........................................................................................................5-191
South African national strategy on climate change ...................................................................................5-200
Long-term mitigation scenarios: Strategic options for South Africa ..........................................................5-201
Climate change politics .............................................................................................................................5-202
Concluding remarks..................................................................................................................................5-203
References ...............................................................................................................................................5-203
Environmental scenarios for South and Southern Africa ...................................................................................5-208
Environmental scenarios for South Africa .................................................................................................5-208
Four possible environmental futures .........................................................................................................5-208
Lessons and guidelines ............................................................................................................................5-211
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................5-211
Environmental scenarios for Southern Africa ...........................................................................................5-212
Market Forces Scenario ...........................................................................................................................5-212
Policy Reform Scenario ............................................................................................................................5-216
The Fortress World Scenario ....................................................................................................................5-218
References ...............................................................................................................................................5-221
Chapter 6: The Economic Environment

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................6-4
Economics and strategy ...............................................................................................................................6-4
Layout of the chapter ....................................................................................................................................6-5
The global context ................................................................................................................................................6-6
The broad structure of the world economy ...................................................................................................6-6
The benefits of global economic integration .................................................................................................6-8
The more negative view of global economic integration .............................................................................6-10
Winners and losers in globalisation .........................................................................................................6-12
The 2008/2009 financial and economic meltdown: From crisis to hesitant recovery ..................................6-14
Opportunities, challenges and risks in the global economic and financial system ......................................6-16
SA is not immune to global economic headwinds: New challenges and new imperatives ..........................6-18
Outcomes and implications.........................................................................................................................6-20
The African context ..............................................................................................................................................6-22
Africa: Reasons for poor economic performance........................................................................................6-22
South Africa in Africa ..................................................................................................................................6-24
Prospects for Africa ....................................................................................................................................6-26
The changing structure of the South African economy ...............................................................................6-28
More prudent fiscal policy since the mid-1990s ..........................................................................................6-30
Monetary policy remains tight .....................................................................................................................6-32
A structurally higher economic growth path? ..............................................................................................6-34
Inflation .......................................................................................................................................................6-36
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Household income trends ...........................................................................................................................6-38

Household consumption trends ..................................................................................................................6-40
Gross fixed capital formation ......................................................................................................................6-42
Economic infrastructure ..............................................................................................................................6-44
The balance of payments: Current account ................................................................................................6-46
The balance of payments: Financial account .............................................................................................6-48
The balance of payments: Foreign exchange reserves ..............................................................................6-50
The exchange rate......................................................................................................................................6-52
Unemployment: The basic figures ..............................................................................................................6-54
Unemployment: Causes .............................................................................................................................6-56
Unemployment: Prospects .........................................................................................................................6-58
Poverty .......................................................................................................................................................6-60
The growing black African middle-class .....................................................................................................6-62
Inequality and service delivery....................................................................................................................6-64
Labour unions and industrial relations: International trends .......................................................................6-66
Labour unions and industrial relations: Labour market flexibility and unemployment .................................6-68
Labour unions and industrial relations: Key indicators influencing the labour landscape in South Africa ...6-70
Labour unions and industrial relations: Possible future developments and trends .....................................6-72
Capital deepening.......................................................................................................................................6-74
The quality of labour ...................................................................................................................................6-76
Productivity .................................................................................................................................................6-78
Provincial overview .....................................................................................................................................6-80
The two economies of South Africa ............................................................................................................6-82
Economic policy challenges........................................................................................................................6-84
The accelerated and shared growth initiative of South Africa .....................................................................6-86
References ..........................................................................................................................................................6-88
Chapter 7: Sustainable Development

Sustainable development ......................................................................................................................................7-5
The concept of sustainable development .....................................................................................................7-5
Related concepts of resilience, adaptability and transformability in social-ecological systems ..................7-10
Systemic unsustainability ...........................................................................................................................7-11
Unsustainable trends: Patterns identified by the IFR ..................................................................................7-12
High-level panel on global sustainability .....................................................................................................7-15
National strategies for sustainable development ........................................................................................7-15
Business and sustainable development .....................................................................................................7-18
The evolution of sustainability reporting .....................................................................................................7-23
Sustainability, strategy and innovation .......................................................................................................7-25
Towards a more sustainable future: Transition to a new sustainability paradigm .......................................7-29
References .................................................................................................................................................7-31
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List of Figures
List of Figures
Figure 1.1:
1.2:
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Images of the future ................................................................................................................... 1-8

A classification of knowledge about the future ........................................................................... 1-9
Different kinds of futures .......................................................................................................... 1-11
Long-term cycles as a basis for business foresight .................................................................. 1-13
The life cycle of evolution ......................................................................................................... 1-14
A hierarchy of influence and control in the environment of an organisation ............................. 1-19
Multiple perspectives in environmental scanning ..................................................................... 1-20
Assumption plotting graph: Importance and certainty .............................................................. 1-22
Corporate governance and related terminology ....................................................................... 1-38

Figure 2.1:
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The five interdependent dimensions of redesigning social systems and defining

the state of social systems (SSS) .......................................................................................... 2-4
Integration (homogenisation) and differentiation as necessary qualities of societal
development .......................................................................................................................... 2-6
Representation of employees at senior management level by race and sex, 2000-2008 ........ 2-21
South Africas home languages, 2001 ...................................................................................... 2-33
Christian growth per continent, 1900-1995 .............................................................................. 2-50
Discrepancies in HDI and income for South Africa, Namibia and Brazil................................... 2-74
Size and annual population growth rates of the world population, 1950-2050 ......................... 2-86
Population size and annual population growth rates of more and less developed regions,
1950-2050 ............................................................................................................................. 2-86
Countries with the highest projected annual net migration gains, 2005-2050 .......................... 2-90
Countries with the highest projected annual net migration losses, 2005-2050 ......................... 2-90
Major refugee hosting countries, end 2009 .............................................................................. 2-91
Proportion of children and older people in the world, 1950-2050 ............................................. 2-91
World population age pyramids, 1950, 2010 and 2050 ............................................................ 2-92
The population of Europe and Africa by broad age groups, 1950-2050 ................................... 2-93
Annual population growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa, 2005-2015 ......................................... 2-97
Sex composition in South Africa during census years 1904-2001, with projections
to 2040 .............................................................................................................................. 2-101
Ranking of provinces by projected population growth rates, 2006-2010 and 2036-2040 ....... 2-103
Population age pyramid of the South African population, 2010 and 2040 .............................. 2-105
Ranking of provinces by percentage children, adults aged 15-64 and older persons,
2010 and 2040 .................................................................................................................. 2-106
South Africa: Net migration gains and losses, 1940-2003 ...................................................... 2-107
Brain drain and gain in South Africa, 1940-2003 .................................................................... 2-107
Estimated internal migration in South Africa, 2001-2006 and 2006-2011 .............................. 2-108
Official deportation of illegal immigrants by South Africa, 1994-2009 .................................... 2-108
Urban and rural populations of the world, 1950-2050 ............................................................ 2-114
Urban populations of more and less developed regions, 1950-2050 ..................................... 2-115
Rural populations of more and less developed regions, 1950-2050....................................... 2-116
Urbanisation levels of major regions, 1950, 2010 and 2050 .................................................. 2-117
The worlds 10 largest urban agglomerations, 1950, 1995, 2010 and 2025 ........................... 2-119
Urban population distribution of the world and more and less developed regions by urban
settlement size, 1970, 2010 and 2025............................................................................... 2-120
Urban and rural populations of Africa, 1950-2050 .................................................................. 2-121
Urban and rural populations in South Africa, 1950-2050 ........................................................ 2-126
Urbanisation levels in South Africa by population group, 1904-2008 ..................................... 2-127
Ranking of provinces by urbanisation level, 2008 .................................................................. 2-127
Actual and estimated size of South Africas largest cities ...................................................... 2-128
Annual population growth rates of South Africas largest cities, 1970-1996 and
2001-2007 ........................................................................................................................... 2-129
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List of Figures
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Slum population as percentage of urban population by region, 2010..................................... 2-130

Proportion of urban populations without access to improved drinking-water sources
and sanitation, 2008 .......................................................................................................... 2-132
Percentage of households in South Africas nine largest cities without water on site,
2001 and 2007 .................................................................................................................. 2-133
Percentage of households in South Africas nine largest cities with VIP toilets or
less, 2001 and 2007 .......................................................................................................... 2-133
Percentage of households in South Africas nine largest cities without refuse collection,
2001 and 2007 .................................................................................................................. 2-134
Life expectancy at birth in African countries, 2005-2015 ........................................................ 2-142
Projected life expectancy at birth in South Africa by population group, 1985-2040 ................ 2-144
Crude mortality rates in African countries, 2010-2015............................................................ 2-144
Percentage distribution of age at death by region, 2004 ........................................................ 2-145
Percentage distribution of cause of death by region, 2004 ..................................................... 2-146
Projected crude death rates in South Africa by population group, 1985-2040........................ 2-148
Child mortality rates in African countries, 2010-2015 ............................................................. 2-151
Projected child mortality rates in South Africa by population group, 1985-2040..................... 2-151
Malaria incidence in the world, 2006 ...................................................................................... 2-153
Annual notifications of malaria in South Africa, 1990-2007 .................................................... 2-154
Number of notified TB cases in South Africa, 1995-2008....................................................... 2-156
Ranking of provinces by TB incidence, 2007 ......................................................................... 2-156
HIV prevalence among adults, 2009 ...................................................................................... 2-158
HIV prevalence in antenatal clinic attenders in South Africa, 1990-2008 ............................... 2-159
Estimated HIV prevalence in antenatal clinic attenders by age in South Africa,
2006-2008 ......................................................................................................................... 2-160
The waves of the AIDS epidemic in South Africa according to the ASSA2003-model,
1990-2030 ......................................................................................................................... 2-161
Projected population age structure with and without the AIDS epidemic in
South Africa, 2025 ............................................................................................................. 2-162
Impact of HIV/AIDS on a business ......................................................................................... 2-164
Conceptual framework for the impact of HIV/AIDS on the health sector ................................ 2-166
Membership of restricted and open medical schemes in South Africa, 1990-2008 ................ 2-170
Trends in the number of beneficiaries, 1997-2008 ................................................................. 2-171
Risk and medical savings accounts contributions and claims per beneficiary per
month for registered schemes, 2000-2008 ......................................................................... 2-171
South African health expenditure, 1990-2013 ........................................................................ 2-172
Six sectors and institutions most affected by corruption in sub-Saharan Africa and the
total sample according to the TI Global Corruption Barometer 2009 ................................. 2-183
Number of reported piracy attacks, 2004-2009 ...................................................................... 2-186
Total recorded crime rates in South Africa, 1994/1995 to 2008/2009 .................................... 2-188
Reported number of murder cases and murder rates in South Africa, 1994/1995 to
2008/2009 ......................................................................................................................... 2-188
Reported number of attempted murder cases and attempted murder rates in South
Africa, 1994/1995 to 2008/2009 ........................................................................................ 2-189
Reported number of sexual offence cases and sexual offence rates in South Africa,
2003/2004 to 2008/2009 .................................................................................................. 2-190
Reported number of violent robbery cases and violent robbery rates in South Africa,
1994/1995 to 2008/2009 ................................................................................................... 2-190
The trio crimes in South Africa, 2002/2003 to 2008/2009 ..................................................... 2-191
Reported number of violent assault cases and violent assault rates in South Africa,
1994/1995 to 2008/2009 ................................................................................................... 2-191
Property-related crime rates in South Africa, 1994/1995 to 2008/2009 .................................. 2-192
Ranking of provinces by commercial crime rates, 1994/1995 and 2008/2009 ....................... 2-193
Attacks and murders on farms and smallholdings, 1991 to 2006/2007 .................................. 2-195
Number of cases to court, withdrawn, prosecuted and convicted, 1996-2008/2009 .............. 2-195
Origin of mobile students, 2007 .............................................................................................. 2-215
Number of learners enrolled in primary education and the potential primary school-age
population, 2000-2008....................................................................................................... 2-221
Number of learners enrolled in primary education by grade and the potential primary
school-age population, 2008 ............................................................................................. 2-221
Number of learners enrolled in secondary education and the potential secondary
school-age population, 2000-2008 .................................................................................... 2-223
viii
IFR
List of Figures
2.81:
2.82:
2.83:
2.84:
2.85:
2.86:
2.87:
2.88:
2.89:
2.90:
2.91:
2.92:
Number of learners enrolled in secondary education by grade and the potential

secondary school-age population, 2008 ............................................................................ 2-223
Number of grade 12 learners enrolled vs the potential grade 12 population, 2000-2009 ....... 2-224
Throughput of learners from grade 10 to grade 12 ................................................................. 2-224
Number of grade 12 learners enrolled and writing exam, 2000-2009 ..................................... 2-224
Number of grade 12 learners writing matric exam, passing matric and pass rate,
2000-2009 ......................................................................................................................... 2-225
Number of grade 12 learners passing matric, passing with endorsement and
endorsement rate, 2000-2009 ........................................................................................... 2-226
Enrolment by gender at public higher education institutions, 1986-2008................................ 2-231
Enrolment by race at public higher education institutions, 1986-2008 .................................... 2-231
Number of students enrolled at public higher education institutions by major field of
study, 2001-2008 ................................................................................................................ 2-232
Number of graduates/diplomates at public higher education institutions by major
field of study, 2001-2008 ................................................................................................... 2-232
Tertiary throughput rate, first-year class of 2002 .................................................................... 2-233
Schematic presentation of the South African 18-24 year-old cohort in need of
post-school education, 2007 .............................................................................................. 2-235

Figure 3.1:
Export performance by key destination .................................................................................... 3-42

Figure 4.1:
4.2:
4.3:
4.4:
4.5:
4.6:
4.7:
4.8:
4.9:
4.10:
4.11
4.12:
4.13:
4.14:
4.15:
4.16:
4.17:
4.18:
4.19:
4.20:
4.21:
4.22:
4.23:
4.24:
4.25:
4.26:
4.27:
4.28:
The technology S-curve ............................................................................................................. 4-7

The curve of growth for a given technology................................................................................ 4-8
Technological substitutions as shown by multiple curves of growth ........................................... 4-8
Share of world wealth by type of country illustrating the role of human resources
and thus innovation in contributing to wealth ........................................................................ 4-9
The relationship between productivity and national wealth for selected countries, 2006 ........ 4-10
The dependence of wealth on technology ................................................................................ 4-10
The dependence of living standards on technology ................................................................. 4-10
The importance of national education in applying technology for competitive advantage ........ 4-11
Links between technology, economic growth and human development ................................... 4-13
Forces that affect competition .................................................................................................. 4-14
Technology management ......................................................................................................... 4-15
The technology life cycle .......................................................................................................... 4-17
The effect of technological transformations on the world population ........................................ 4-18
Minimum integrated circuit line size (in production), actual and forecast ................................. 4-23
Growth in telephone lines and cellular phone subscribers worldwide ...................................... 4-26
The growth of the Internet in number of hosts .......................................................................... 4-29
Telephone penetration in Africa per 100 people....................................................................... 4-33
Africa telecoms services and infrastructure markets analysis and forecasts ......................... 4-33
Global plantings of genetically modified crops, 1995-2009 and trend ...................................... 4-40
Worldwide spending on nanotechnology, 2004-2010............................................................... 4-47
Global clean-energy projected growth, 2008-2018................................................................... 4-50
Forecast of world traffic volumes .............................................................................................. 4-56
R&D per capita as a function of GDP per capita (PPP) for 51 selected countries ................... 4-62
The trend in R&D expenditure, South Africa ............................................................................ 4-63
Royalty payments to and receipts from overseas countries by South Africa ............................ 4-65
Distribution of R&D expenditure by broad discipline in South Africa for 2004/5
2005/6 and 2006/7 .............................................................................................................. 4-65
R&D workforce in South Africa by race and gender, 2007 ...................................................... 4-68
Overview of the national governments Science and Technology System ............................... 4-73
ix
IFR
List of Figures
Chapter 5: The Natural Environment

Figure 5.1:
5.2:
5.3:
5.4:
5.5:
5.6:
5.7:
5.8:
5.9:
5.10:
5.11:
5.12:
5.13:
5.14:
5.15:
5.16:
5.17
5.18:
5.19:
5.20:
5.21:
5.22:
5.23:
5.24:
5.25:
5.26:
5.27:
5.28:
5.29:
5.30:
5.31:
5.32:
5.33:
5.34:
5.35:
5.36:
5.37
5.38:
5.39:
5.40:
5.41:
5.42:
5.43:
5.44:
5.45:
5.46:
5.47:
5.48:
5.49:
5.50:
5.51:
5.52:
5.53:
5.54:
5.55:
5.56:
The trend in arable land used globally, 1700-1990 .................................................................... 5-7

Land use for field crop and horticultural production in Africa, 1961-2008................................. 5-11
Yields for the major field crops in Africa, 1961-2008 ................................................................ 5-11
Total and per capita agricultural production in Africa, 1964-2006 ............................................ 5-11
Index of per capita agricultural production in Africa by region, 1964-2006 ............................... 5-11
Index of per capita food production in Africa by region, 1964-2006 ......................................... 5-11
Index of per capita cereal production in Africa by region, 1964-2006....................................... 5-12
Africas food imports and exports, 1961-2006 .......................................................................... 5-12
Africas net imports of wheat and maize, 1961-2006................................................................ 5-12
Africas net imports of processed field crops, 1961-2006 ......................................................... 5-12
Africas net imports of meat, 1961-2006 ................................................................................... 5-13
Africas net imports of selected high value agricultural products, 1961-2006 ........................... 5-13
Real gross value of field crops ................................................................................................. 5-17
Real gross value of animal products ........................................................................................ 5-17
Real gross income of the agricultural sector ............................................................................ 5-17
Real intermediate input expenditure......................................................................................... 5-18
Real gross value added of the agricultural sector .................................................................... 5-18
Real net farming income .......................................................................................................... 5-18
Real agricultural debt ............................................................................................................... 5-19
Number of undernourished people in the major developing regions, 2004/06 and 2009 ......... 5-20
Low-income food-deficit countries, Nov 2006........................................................................... 5-20
Distribution of the worlds grasslands ....................................................................................... 5-30
Designated functions of forests, 2010 ...................................................................................... 5-32
Projected global freshwater stress and scarcity, 1990-2050 .................................................... 5-41
Freshwater stress and scarcity in Africa, 2025 ......................................................................... 5-42
Global annual freshwater withdrawals by sector, 1900-2025 ................................................... 5-43
Water consumption in South Africa by sector, 2000................................................................. 5-49
Global fish production, 1950-2009 ........................................................................................... 5-60
Ten leading countries in marine and freshwater fisheries production, 2008 ............................. 5-61
Ten leading countries in aquaculture production, 2008 ............................................................ 5-63
Annual demersal and pelagic fishery catches in South African coastal waters,
1990-2008 ........................................................................................................................... 5-67
Annual rock lobster catches in South African coastal waters, 1965-2008 ................................ 5-68
Aquaculture production in South Africa, 1996-2008 ................................................................. 5-69
Economic growth in key regions, 2001-2015............................................................................ 5-75
World economic growth trends, 1998-2011 .............................................................................. 7-75
Growth rates in world trade in goods and services, year-on-year and
quarter-on-quarter, 2002-2010 ............................................................................................ 5-76
Composite leading indicator for key economies, 2006-2010 .................................................... 5-76
Global manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, 2006-2010............................................... 5-76
Global steel production 2007-2010 .......................................................................................... 5-77
Unemployment rates in the industrialised countries, 2006-2010 .............................................. 5-77
Government structural fiscal deficits as percentage of GDP, 2001-2015 ................................. 5-78
Gross government debt as percentage of GDP, 2001-2015 .................................................... 5-78
Commodity prices, recovery after the 2009 crash, 2005-2011 ................................................. 5-78
Economists All Metals Index, US$ terms, base indexed, Oct 2001 to Aug 2010 ..................... 5-78
Worlds urbanised population, 1950-2050 ................................................................................ 5-79
Chinas urban population, 2005 and 2025 ................................................................................ 5-79
Chinas share of global commodity demand............................................................................. 5-79
World investment trends, gross fixed capital formation as percentage of GDP,
1990-2011 ........................................................................................................................... 5-79
Large-scale non-ferrous global exploration, 1991-2009 ........................................................... 5-80
PWC survey of top 40 mining companies, 2003, 2009 ............................................................. 5-81
Capital investment by top 40 mining companies by commodity, 2008-2009 ............................ 5-81
Industry value creation in South Africa and the world, 2001-2008, real compound
annual growth rate percentages .......................................................................................... 5-82
Global in situ mineral resource holders, US$ value.................................................................. 5-83
Projected mineral weighted production of the South African mining sector, 2010-2020........... 5-84
South African reserves of key minerals, 2008 .......................................................................... 5-84
Competitiveness drivers of South Africas mining sector .......................................................... 5-85
x
IFR
List of Figures
5.57:
5.58:
5.59:
5.60:
5.61:
5.62:
5.63:
5.64:
5.65:
5.66:
5.67:
5.68:
5.69:
5.70:
5.71:
5.72:
5.73
5.74:
5.75:
5.76:
5.78:
5.79:
5.80:
5.81:
5.82:
5.83:
5.84:
5.85:
5.86:
5.87:
5.88:
5.89:
5.90:
5.91:
5.92:
income and expenditure of the SA mining industry, 2009 ........................................................ 5-87

GDP per sector, 1993-2009 ..................................................................................................... 5-88
World primary energy consumption, 1999-2009....................................................................... 5-92
World energy intensity by region, reference case scenario, 2007-2035 ................................... 5-93
World energy-related CO2 emissions by region, 2007-2035 .................................................... 5-93
Primary energy consumption in South Africa, 2009 ................................................................. 5-93
The Low Carbon Competitiveness Index ................................................................................. 5-94
Current (2009) proved oil reserves, OPEC and non-OPEC ..................................................... 5-96
South African oil production and consumption, 1988-2008 ...................................................... 5-96
World consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewables in the context of all
other sources of energy, 2007 to 2035 .............................................................................. 5-101
Renewable energys share of global final energy consumption, 2008 .................................... 5-103
World electricity generating capacity by source, 2008 ........................................................... 5-103
Projected global growth in the clean energy industry, 2009-2019 .......................................... 5-103
South Africas electricity capacity and demand outlook, 2006-2026....................................... 5-108
Economic cost of outages in selected countries ..................................................................... 5-109
Forecast liquid fuels supply shortfall for South Africa, 2008-2030 .......................................... 5-109
Sector contribution to total GHG emissions, 2000.................................................................. 5-111
Sectoral contribution to fuel combustion emissions ................................................................ 5-111
Scope 1 & 2 emissions by company: CDP 2009 vs CDP6 (2008), in tonnes of CO 2-eq ........ 5-113
Linking biodiversity to human well-being ................................................................................ 5-116
The Living Planet Index, terrestrial, marine and freshwater LPIs, 1970-2005 ........................ 5-119
The Red List Index for corals, birds, mammals and amphibians, 1980-2010 ......................... 5-120
Disability-adjusted life years attributed to environmental health risks .................................... 5-136
Municipal waste per person, kg per capita for 2007, or latest available year ......................... 5-138
Top ten marine debris items globally (1989-2007 combined) ............................................... 5-147
Quantities of oil spilled, 1970 to 2009 .................................................................................... 5-148
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, and F-gases for three reference
scenarios, 2000-2100 ........................................................................................................ 5-153
Sectoral contributions to GHG emissions in South Africa ...................................................... 5-153
Waste hierarchy ..................................................................................................................... 5-159
Process to be followed for industry waste management plans ............................................... 5-160
The monthly average carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii ....... 5-173
Variations of the earths surface temperature, 1000-2100 ..................................................... 5-192
Drivers of environmental change ............................................................................................ 5-208
Four scenarios of South Africas future environment.............................................................. 5-209
The environmental implications of the four scenarios ............................................................ 5-210

Figure 6.1:
6.2:
6.3:
6.4:
6.5:
6.6:
6.7:
6.8:
6.9:
6.10:
6.11:
6.12:
6.13:
6.14:
6.15:
6.16:
6.17:
6.18:
6.19:
6.20:
6.21:
Foreign direct investment as share of GDP, 1995 and 2007 ...................................................... 6-9
Foreign direct investment by income group, 1995 and 2008 .................................................... 6-11
G-7 debt is close to post-war highs .......................................................................................... 6-15
Gross world product, 1950-2020 .............................................................................................. 6-17
Gross world product per capita, 1950-2020 ............................................................................. 6-17
Share of population living on less than $1.25 per day, by selected countries .......................... 6-23
Sector share of change in real GDP, 2002-2007, % ................................................................ 6-27
Macro-economic stability measure ........................................................................................... 6-27
Share of households in each income bracket........................................................................... 6-27
Infrastructure financing in sub-Saharan Africa ......................................................................... 6-27
Structure of the SA economy by primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, 1960-2009 ............. 6-29
Government (public) debt as a percentage of GDP, 1961-2009 .............................................. 6-31
Prime rate, inflation rate and real prime rate ............................................................................ 6-33
Growth in total domestic credit extension and the prime rate ................................................... 6-33
Current account and financial account as percentage of GDP, 1970-2009.............................. 6-33
Household debt and savings as percentage of disposable income, 1970-2009 ....................... 6-33
GDP growth and GDP per capita growth, 1950-2009 .............................................................. 6-35
Real GDP, GDP per capita and population .............................................................................. 6-35
Consumer price index inflation, 1980-June 2010 ..................................................................... 6-37
Real total and per capita disposable income ............................................................................ 6-39
FCE as percentage of GDP...................................................................................................... 6-41
xi
IFR
List of Figures
6.22:
6.23:
6.24:
6.25:
6.26:
6.27:
6.28:
6.29:
6.30:
6.31:
6.32
6.33:
6.34:
6.35:
6.36:
6.37:
6.38:
6.39:
6.40:
6.41:
6.42:
6.43:
6.44:
6.45:
6.46:
6.47:
6.48:
6.49:
6.50:
6.51:
6.52:
Components of FCE ................................................................................................................. 6-41

Real gross fixed capital formation, Rm and as percentage of GDP, 1960-2009 ...................... 6-43
Real fixed capital stock, total and per capita, 1960-2009 ......................................................... 6-43
Composition of gross capital formation, 1985-2009 ................................................................. 6-43
Foreign investment as percentage of gross capital formation, 1960-2009 ............................... 6-43
Real GFCF in economic infrastructure, total and as percentage of GDP, 1960-2009 .............. 6-45
Real fixed capital stock of economic infrastructure, total and per capita, 1960-2009 ............... 6-45
Real GFCF in electricity, gas and water, total and as percentage of total GFCF, 1960-2009 .. 6-45
Real fixed capital stock of electricity, gas and water, total and per capita, 1960-2009 ............. 6-45
Exports of goods and services, 1960-2009 .............................................................................. 6-47
Imports of goods and services, 1960-2009 .............................................................................. 6-47
International Trade Openness Index ........................................................................................ 6-47
Export and import prices, and terms of trade, 1960-2009 ........................................................ 6-47
Net financial flows as percentage of GDP, 1960-2009 ............................................................. 6-49
Net financial flows by type, 1960-2009 ..................................................................................... 6-49
South Africas current account and financial account as percentage of GDP,
1970-2009 .......................................................................................................................... 6-51
South Africas foreign debt as percentage of GDP and of exports of goods and
services, 1985-2008 ............................................................................................................ 6-51
Weighted average exchange rate of the rand, 1980-2009 ....................................................... 6-53
Real weighted average exchange rate of the rand, 1990-2009 ................................................ 6-53
Unemployment rates by population group, 2001-2010............................................................. 6-55
Employment and gross value added to the private non-agricultural formal economy,
1960-2009 ........................................................................................................................... 6-57
Number of households as percentage of all households in high-middle and high
income groups..................................................................................................................... 6-63
Percentage of black African households in each income group ............................................... 6-63
Trade union density for selected countries, 1999-2008............................................................ 6-67
Average annual hours actually worked per worker................................................................... 6-67
Determinants of labour market flexibility .................................................................................. 6-69
Unemployment rates ................................................................................................................ 6-69
South Africas average capital-labour ratio in the non-agricultural formal private economy,
1960-2009 ............................................................................................................................ 6-75
Employment intensity in the South African non-agricultural formal private economy,
1960-2009, at constant 2005 prices .................................................................................... 6-75
Real average annual economic growth by province, 2000-2008 .............................................. 6-81
Provincial contribution to South Africas economy, 1995, 2002 and 2008 ................................ 6-81

Figure 7.1:
7.2:
Reasons for reporting on sustainability .................................................................................... 7-20

Vision 2050 .............................................................................................................................. 7-30
xii
IFR
List of Tables
List of Tables
Table
1.1:
1.2:
1.3:
1.4:
1.5:
1.6:
Continuum of futures methods and techniques ........................................................................ 1-17

Environmental analysis techniques .......................................................................................... 1-21
Characteristics of classical forecasting compared with those of the prospective approach ..... 1-24
The 2020 Project compared to Global Trends 2025................................................................. 1-27
The 2025 global landscape: Relative certainties and their likely impact................................... 1-28
The 2025 global landscape: Key uncertainties and their political consequences ..................... 1-28

Table
2.1:
2.2:
2.3:
2.4:
2.5:
2.6:
2.7:
2.8:
2.9:
2.10:
2.11:
2.12:
2.13
2.14:
2.15:
2.16:
2.17:
2.18:
2.19:
2.20:
2.21:
2.22:
2.23:
2.24:
2.25:
2.26:
2.27:
2.28:
2.29:
2.30:
2.31:
2.32:
2.33:
2.34:
2.35:
2.36:
2.37:
Human aspirations and the obstructions to the development of societies .................................. 2-5
Representation of employees by race, sex and occupational level, 2008/2009 ....................... 2-21
The three most dominant home languages in South Africa by race, 2001 ............................... 2-33
Proportional distribution of home languages by province, 2001 ............................................... 2-34
Growth in the major world religions, 1900-2000, with projections for 2025 .............................. 2-50
Religious affiliation in South Africa, 2001 ................................................................................. 2-52
Number of registered marriages and published divorces in South Africa, 1999-2008 .............. 2-59
Marital status of the SA population, 2001 ................................................................................. 2-60
Number and proportion of child-headed households by province, 2002 and 2007................... 2-61
Children living in income poverty by province and race, 2007.................................................. 2-62
Presence of father of children by race, 1993-2002................................................................... 2-63
HDI rankings and related indicators for South Africa, Brazil, Norway, Niger and
Libya, 2007.......................................................................................................................... 2-71
Summary of South Africas poverty measurements ................................................................. 2-74
Population size and annual population growth rates of major regions, 1975-2050 .................. 2-87
Ranking of the 11 most populous countries, 1950, 2010, 2030 and 2050 ................................ 2-88
Percentage distribution of the world population within three age groups by major region,
1950-2050 ........................................................................................................................... 2-92
Median age of the world population by major region, 1950-2050 ............................................. 2-93
Labour force participation among older persons by major region, 2009 ................................... 2-94
Population size and annual population growth rates of sub-Saharan African countries
and SADC countries, 1970-2050 ......................................................................................... 2-96
Various projections of the total population of South Africa, 2000-2040 .................................... 2-99
Projected size of the South African population by race and sex, 2000-2040 ......................... 2-100
Actual and projected size of the provincial populations, 2000-2040 ....................................... 2-100
Racial composition in South Africa during census years 1980-2001, with projections
to 2040 .............................................................................................................................. 2-102
Racial composition in South Africa by province, 2010 ............................................................ 2-102
Actual and projected annual population growth rates of the South African population
by race, 1996-2040 ........................................................................................................... 2-103
Projected age distribution, median ages and old age dependency ratios of the South
African population by race, 1990-2040 .............................................................................. 2-104
Estimated internal migration in South Africa by population group, 2001-2006 ....................... 2-107
Major population concerns of governments in 2009 ............................................................... 2-111
Urban and rural population size by major region, 1975-2050 ................................................. 2-115
Urban and rural growth by major region, 1970-2050 .............................................................. 2-117
Urban population size and urbanisation levels of African countries, 1970-2050 .................... 2-122
Africas urban and rural growth rates by major region, 1970-2050 ......................................... 2-124
Africas urban population distribution by urban settlement size, 1970-2025 ........................... 2-125
Trends in urbanisation level, and urban and rural growth rates in South Africa, 1950-2050 ...... 2-126
Access of households to housing in South Africa, 1996, 2001 and 2007 ............................... 2-131
Number of households in South Africas nine largest cities living in informal dwellings,
1996, 2001 and 2007 ........................................................................................................ 2-131
Life expectancy at birth by major region, 1950-2050 ............................................................. 2-142
xiii
IFR
List of Tables
2.38:
2.39:
2.40:
2.41:
2.42:
2.43:
2.44:
2.45:
2.46:
2.47:
2.48:
2.49:
2.50:
2.51:
2.52:
2.53:
2.54:
2.55:
2.56:
2.57:
2.58:
2.59:
2.60:
2.61:
2.62:
2.63:
2.64:
2.65:
2.66:
2.67:
2.68:
2.69:
2.70:
2.71:
2.72:
2.73:
2.74:
2.75:
2.76:
2.77:
2.78:
2.79:
2.80:
Projected life expectancy at birth in the 10 worst HIV-affected African countries, 1985-2025 ... 2-143
Projected life expectancy at birth of the South African population by province, 1990-2040 ....... 2-144
Crude mortality rates by major region, 1950-2050 ................................................................. 2-145
Ten leading causes of death in the world, 2004, with projections for 2030 ............................ 2-146
Projected crude mortality rates of the South African population by province, 1990-2040....... 2-148
Ten leading underlying causes of death by sex in South Africa, 2007 ................................... 2-149
Child mortality rates by major region, 1970-2050 ................................................................... 2-150
Projected child mortality rates of the South African population by province 1990-2040 ......... 2-152
Ranking of the 10 countries with the highest TB burden by number of new cases and
incidence, as well as HIV prevalence in TB cases, 2008 .................................................. 2-155
HIV/AIDS indicators by major region, 2008 ............................................................................ 2-158
HIV prevalence and AIDS deaths in the 10 worst-affected sub-Saharan countries, 2007 ...... 2-159
Estimated HIV prevalence in antenatal clinic attenders by province in South Africa,
1999-2008 ......................................................................................................................... 2-160
Projected number of HIV-infected people and AIDS deaths per province, 2005-2030 ........... 2-161
Projected demographic impact of HIV/AIDS on the total South African population,
2010-2030 ......................................................................................................................... 2-162
Public sector health care personnel in South Africa by province, 2010 .................................. 2-169
Distribution of public and private hospitals and hospital beds, as well as primary
health care facilities ........................................................................................................... 2-170
Provincial health expenditure in real terms, 2005/2006 to 2011/2012 .................................... 2-172
The 10 highest ranked countries, South Africa and the 10 lowest ranked countries
according to the Corruption Perceptions Index, 2009 ....................................................... 2-182
Ranking of countries according to the Bribe Payers Index, 2008 ........................................... 2-182
Incidence of corruption and perceived corruption in sub-Saharan African countries .............. 2-187
Violent crime rates by province, 1994/1995 and 2008/2009 .................................................. 2-189
Ranking of provinces according to property-related crime rates, 2008/2009 ......................... 2-192
Estimated number of adult illiterates and adult literacy rates by major region in
1985-1994 and 2000-2007, with projections to 2015 ........................................................ 2-207
Pre-primary enrolment and gross enrolment ratios by major region 1999 and 2007 .............. 2-208
New entrants to grade 1, primary education enrolment and net enrolment ratios by
major region, 1999 and 2007 ............................................................................................ 2-209
Estimated number of out-of-school children by major region, 1999 and 2007 ....................... 2-210
Rates of transition to, and participation in, secondary education by major region,
1999 and 2007 .................................................................................................................. 2-211
Teaching staff and learner/educator ratios in primary and secondary education by
major region, 1999 and 2007 ............................................................................................ 2-212
Tertiary education enrolment and gross enrolment ratios by major region, 1999
and 2007 ........................................................................................................................... 2-214
Tertiary education enrolment by field of study for major regions, 2007 .................................. 2-214
Top 20 universities according to the THES and SJTU world rankings, 2009 ......................... 2-216
Percentage of the adult population by level of education and by race, 1996, 2001
and 2007 ........................................................................................................................... 2-217
Training ratios by employment status, gender, race and enterprise size, 2002/2003
and 2006/2007 .................................................................................................................. 2-218
Enrolment in pre-grade R and grade R levels by province, 2005 and 2009 ........................... 2-220
Number of learners, educators and ordinary schools, as well as learner/educator
ratios and learner/school ratios by province, 2000 and 2009 ............................................ 2-220
Numeracy and literacy attainment in grades 3 and 6 systemic evaluations, 2001-2007 ........ 2-222
Current and projected learner enrolments for primary and secondary education by
province............................................................................................................................. 2-223
NSC results by province, 2007, 2008 and 2009 ..................................................................... 2-225
Condition of education facilities, 1996, 2006 and 2009 .......................................................... 2-227
Enrolment at public higher education institutions by race, 2008............................................. 2-231
Enrolment and educators at private higher education institutions by province, subjects
and programmes, 2009 ..................................................................................................... 2-233
Enrolment and educators, pass rates and drop-out rates at public FET institutions
by province, 2008 .............................................................................................................. 2-234
Returns to investment in education by level ........................................................................... 2-236
xiv
IFR
List of Tables
2.81:
2.82:
Highest level of education for population aged 20 years and above, by population
group, 1996 and 2007 ....................................................................................................... 2-240
Provincial education expenditure, 2005/2006 to 2011/2012 ................................................... 2-241

Table
3.1:
3.2
3.3:
3.4:
3.5:
Top ten trade partners by total trade descending, 2005 and 2008 ........................................... 3-41
Proportion of households with piped water in dwelling or on site by province, 2002-2008 ....... 3-88
Proportion of households using bucket system and without sanitation facilities by
province, 2002-2008 ........................................................................................................... 3-89
Households residing in informal settlements by province, 1996-2008...................................... 3-89
Households with and without electricity by province, 2008 ...................................................... 3-90

Table
4.1:
4.2:
4.3:
4.4:
4.5:
4.6:
4.7:
4.8:
4.9:
4.10:
4.11:
4.12:
4.13:
4.14:
4.15:
4.16:
4.17:
4.18:
4.19:
4.20:
4.21:
Selected indicators of technological competitiveness potential ................................................ 4-12

Management tasks in managing technology ............................................................................ 4-17
Forecasts of some microprocessor parameters, 2010-2022 .................................................... 4-24
The ten most powerful supercomputers ................................................................................... 4-25
Worldwide VoIP subscribers, actual and estimates.................................................................. 4-27
Broadband: Top ten countries by broadband subscribers per 100 population, 2009 ............... 4-28
Broadband: Top ten countries by number of lines .................................................................... 4-28
Global Internet usage and penetration, by region .................................................................... 4-29
e-Readiness Index top 50, 2009 .............................................................................................. 4-30
Information penetration in Africa .............................................................................................. 4-32
Some landmark events in genetic engineering......................................................................... 4-36
Area under genetically modified crops in million hectares by major country, 1996-2008 ......... 4-41
Landmark events in materials technology ................................................................................ 4-44
Comparative performance of internal combustion, hybrid and fuel cells for car engines .......... 4-58
Indicators of technological competitiveness potential for some countries ................................ 4-61
R&D and high technology in Africa........................................................................................... 4-63
R&D expenditure by province................................................................................................... 4-66
NRF rated researchers at South African institutions, ranked by ratings within
institution type ...................................................................................................................... 4-67
Education and S&T personnel in Africa .................................................................................... 4-69
Government funding public entities and programmes .............................................................. 4-75
Selected DST performance indicators ...................................................................................... 4-79
Chapter 5: The Natural/Physical Environment

Table
5.1:
5.2:
5.3:
5.4:
5.5:
5.6:
5.7:
5.8:
5.9:
5.10:
5.11:
5.12:
5.13:
5.14:
Global land availability by territory/country ................................................................................. 5-6

Agricultural land availability ........................................................................................................ 5-6
South Africas relative land availability ....................................................................................... 5-6
The regional share of arable land, 1700-1990............................................................................ 5-7
Global land-use areas unchanged and conversions, 1987-2006 ............................................ 5-8
Percentage distribution of estimated sources of growth in crop production in developing
countries, 1961-2005 and 2005/07-2050............................................................................... 5-9
Potential arable land and arable land in use in developing countries, 1997/1999 and 2030........ 5-10
Potential irrigated land and irrigated land in use in developing countries, 1997/1999 and
2030 .................................................................................................................................... 5-10
Average annual growth in the amount of land under irrigation, 1961-2007 .............................. 5-13
Logistics Performance Index rankings, 2009............................................................................ 5-14
Yield effects by crop and management system ........................................................................ 5-14
World food prices in 2000 and 2050 ......................................................................................... 5-15
The impact of increased crop prices on food consumption, availability and child
malnutrition .......................................................................................................................... 5-15
The Global Hunger Index, 1990 and 2009 ............................................................................... 5-19
xv
IFR
List of Tables
5.15:
5.16:
5.17:
5.18:
5.19:
5.20:
5.21:
5.22:
5.23:
5.24:
5.25:
5.26:
5.27:
5.28:
5.29:
5.30:
5.31:
5.32:
5.33:
5.34:
5.35:
5.36:
5.37:
5.38:
5.39:
5.40:
5.41:
5.42:
5.43:
5.44:
5.45:
5.46:
5.47:
5.48:
5.49:
5.50:
5.51:
5.52:
5.53:
5.54:
5.55:
5.56:
Trends in food aid in Africa, 2000/02 to 2004/06 ...................................................................... 5-20

Growth in demand for, and production of, agricultural products, 1991-2050 ............................ 5-21
Per capita food consumption, 1969/1971-2050 ........................................................................ 5-22
Fertiliser consumption and growth in developing countries, 1961/63-2030 .............................. 5-26
Land restitution to 2008/09 ....................................................................................................... 5-28
Land redistribution to 2008/2009 .............................................................................................. 5-29
Trends in production and consumption of sawnwood, 1965-2030 ........................................... 5-33
Production of bioenergy, 1970-2030 ........................................................................................ 5-33
Plantation area by species and ownership ............................................................................... 5-35
Freshwater resource availability versus population distribution by major region,
2010 and 2030 .................................................................................................................... 5-41
The Millennium Development Goal target: Past performance and future targets for
water and sanitation ............................................................................................................ 5-44
Natural mean annual runoff, ecological reserve and available freshwater yield
by water management area, 2000 ...................................................................................... 5-46
Freshwater availability and requirements in South Africa by water management area,
3
2000 and 2025 in million m per annum .............................................................................. 5-47
World fish production, utilisation and consumption, 2007-2009, with estimates for 2010......... 5-63
South African mineral production growth rates......................................................................... 5-82
Proved reserves of non-renewable energy resources, at the end of 2009 ............................... 5-92
World energy consumption by energy source, reference case scenario, 2005-2035 ............... 5-93
Energy efficiency of South Africa and selected countries, and CO2 emissions ........................ 5-94
Oil reserves, production and consumption as a percentage of the world total, 2009 ............... 5-95
Coal reserves, production and consumption in selected countries, 2009 ................................. 5-97
Natural gas reserves, production and consumption in selected regions, 2009 ........................ 5-98
Known recoverable resources of uranium, 2009 ...................................................................... 5-99
Current and potential use of renewable energy sources, in TWh per annum ........................ 5-100
Key regional renewables indicators for 2004 ......................................................................... 5-101
Renewable energy added and existing capacities, 2009 ....................................................... 5-102
Investment in renewable energy and renewable energy policies, 2007-2009 ........................ 5-103
Global clean energy jobs for the solar and wind industry, 2009-2019 .................................... 5-103
Potential contribution of renewable energy in South Africa, different assessments ............... 5-105
South African energy sector jobs in 2010, 2020 and 2030 ..................................................... 5-106
Per capita electricity consumption, percentage change in per capita electricity
consumption, carbon intensity and change in carbon intensity, South Africa
and selected countries ...................................................................................................... 5-106
Eskom power station net maximum capacity ......................................................................... 5-107
Capacity and demand-side management requirements for 2009 to 2013 .............................. 5-108
World CO2 emissions by fuel type, 2007-2035, in million tonnes of CO2................................ 5-110
Fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions in South Africa, 1997-2007 ............................................... 5-111
Environmental impact of electricity generation in South Africa ............................................... 5-112
South Africa and the ten countries with the highest ecological footprints, 2005 ..................... 5-119
Number of extinct and threatened species by major groups of organisms in the
world, 2010........................................................................................................................ 5-120
Ecosystem status in South Africa, 2004 ................................................................................. 5-124
Quantity of e-waste generated in tonnes/year, selected countries ......................................... 5-139
Diseases and water-borne pollution ....................................................................................... 5-143
Projected premature annual deaths due to urban air pollution, total and by economic
group or region, 2001-2020 ............................................................................................... 5-150
Illustrative estimates of the global order of magnitude of potential additional
sustainability-related business opportunities in key sectors in 2050 ................................. 5-162

Table
6.1:
6.2:
6.3:
6.4:
Population and economic output by region and selected countries............................................ 6-7

Structure of output, 1995 and 2008 ............................................................................................ 6-7
Structure of demand, 2008 ......................................................................................................... 6-7
Economic growth, export and import volume growth, and international trade in
goods and services ............................................................................................................... 6-9
xvi
IFR
List of Tables
6.5:
6.6:
6.7:
6.8:
6.9:
6.10:
6.11:
6.12:
6.13:
6.14:
6.15
6.16:
6.17:
6.18:
6.19:
6.20:
6.21:
6.22:
6.23:
6.24:
6.25:
6.26:
6.27:
6.28:
6.29:
6.30:
6.31:
6.32:
6.33:
6.34:
6.35:
6.36:
6.37:
6.38:
6.39:
6.40:
6.41:
6.42:
6.43:
6.44:
6.45:
6.46:
6.47:
6.48:
6.49:
6.50:
Share of World GNI and world population, and GNI per capita by income and region, 2008 ... 6-11
Structure of output for various countries, regions and the world, 1995 and 2008..................... 6-13
Changes in the labour force for selected countries, 1950-2008 ............................................... 6-13
The global outlook in summary ................................................................................................ 6-15
Projections for GDP and GDP per capita, 2000-2050 .............................................................. 6-17
The 20 largest economies in the world in 2008, according to PPP GNI in US$ ....................... 6-19
Business environment, June 2009 ........................................................................................... 6-19
Sub-Saharan Africa in a global context: Socio-economic fact sheet ........................................ 6-23
Dimensions of income distribution, latest survey year .............................................................. 6-23
The economies of Africa and the provinces of South Africa: Comparative statistics, 2008 ...... 6-25
Sectoral contribution to total value added in constant 2005 terms ........................................... 6-29
Selected items of general government expenditure as percentage of total government
expenditure, 1979/1980-2009/2010 .................................................................................... 6-31
Government expenditure as a share of GDP, 1960-2008 ........................................................ 6-31
Percentage contribution of various kinds of taxes to total tax revenue, 1970-2010.................. 6-31
The purchasing power of R1 000, 1940-2009 .......................................................................... 6-37
Consumer price inflation for selected countries, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2008,
mid-2009 and mid-2010 ...................................................................................................... 6-37
Annual household income by decile, 2005/2006 ...................................................................... 6-39
Average annual income of households by population group .................................................... 6-39
Distribution of household income across deciles, 2005/2006 ................................................... 6-39
Average annual growth in the various components of FCE, 1960-2009 .................................. 6-41
Total foreign liabilities and assets of South Africa by region and selected countries,
31 December 2008 .............................................................................................................. 6-49
South Africas gross gold and foreign exchange reserves and import cover ratio,
1975-2009 ........................................................................................................................... 6-51
External debt as percentage of GNI: International comparison, 1995 and 2007 ...................... 6-51
Exchange rate value of the rand expressed in terms of the rands value in foreign
exchange markets, 1957-2009 ............................................................................................ 6-53
Average annual change in the exchange rate of the rand, 1980-2009 ..................................... 6-53
Labour force participation, absorption and unemployment by sex, Mar 2001, Mar 2003,
Mar 2008 and Mar 2010 ...................................................................................................... 6-55
Unemployment rate by province, Mar 2001, Mar 2003, Mar 2008 and Mar 2010 .................... 6-55
Employment by sector, Mar 2001, Mar 2003, Mar 2008 and Mar 2010 ................................... 6-55
Employment by main industry, Mar 2001-2010 ........................................................................ 6-57
Job losses/gains in the non-agricultural sectors between 1989 and 2009 ............................... 6-57
Employment scenarios to 2014 ................................................................................................ 6-59
Employment scenarios to 2024 ................................................................................................ 6-59
Poverty measures by population group and gender, 1993, 2000 and 2008 ............................. 6-61
Social assistance support grants, 1996/1997-2008/2009 ......................................................... 6-61
South Africas black African middle-class aged 16 years and older ......................................... 6-63
Annual per capita personal income by population group in 2000 rands and relative to
white levels, 1917-2008...................................................................................................... 6-65
Gini coefficients by population group and location, 1993, 2000 and 2008 ............................... 6-65
Basic services in South Africa, 1996-2008 ............................................................................... 6-65
Employment in South Africa by sex and number of hours worked, Jun 2010 .......................... 6-67
Projected changes in the size of the labour force, 2000-2015 ................................................. 6-71
South Africas capital-output ratio, 1960-2009, at constant 2000 prices ................................... 6-75
Employment by occupation, Mar 2001-Mar 2010 ..................................................................... 6-77
Highest level of education of the employed in March 2010 ...................................................... 6-77
Highest level of education of the unemployed in March 2010 .................................................. 6-77
GNI per worker, selected regions and countries, 2008 ............................................................ 6-79
Provincial contribution to South Africas GDP by sector, 2008 ................................................. 6-81

Table
7.1:
Sustainability challenges, competencies and opportunities ..................................................... 7-27
xvii
IFR
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits
Exhibit 1.1:
1.2:
1.3:
1.4:
1.5:
1.6:
1.7:
A selection of paradoxical statements .......................................................................................1-15

Mind sets required to anticipate future change ..........................................................................1-15
Taxonomy of futures research methods ....................................................................................1-18
Three areas that will touch the lives of everyone during the next 30 years ...............................1-30
15 global challenges ..................................................................................................................1-30
Large-scale problems that the world faces ................................................................................1-31
Organisational models and their implications for management .................................................1-35

Exhibit 2.1:
2.2
2.3:
2.4:
2.5:
2.6:
2.7:
2.8:
2.9:
2.10:
2.11:
2.12:
2.13:
2.14:
2.15:
2.16:
2.17:
2.18:
2.19:
Diversity tensions: Challenges, lessons learnt and social action ...............................................2-11

How the MPI is calculated: The Alkire Foster method ...............................................................2-73
Official list of MDG goals and targets ........................................................................................2-78
Chinas one-child policy .............................................................................................................2-89
Demographic profile of the emerging black African middle class ............................................2-105
The Gauteng Urban Region ....................................................................................................2-128
The global tobacco epidemic some facts..............................................................................2-147
Alcohol abuse some facts.....................................................................................................2-147
The determinants of health in South Africa .............................................................................2-149
Key elements of an HIV/AIDS workplace policy and an HIV/AIDS workplace programme ......2-167
Public health-care sector vs private health-care sector: Some shortcomings, strengths
and challenges ..................................................................................................................2-168
The 10-point health priority areas for the 2009/2010 2013/2014 period ...............................2-174
Policy proposals for sustainable corporate integrity ................................................................2-184
Conclusions regarding the crime situation in South Africa ......................................................2-201
The Education For All goals and the education-related MDGs ................................................2-206
The National Benchmark Tests, 2009 .....................................................................................2-226
National Schools Violence Study.............................................................................................2-229
Recommendations for an improved implementation of the NCS .............................................2-243
Strategic recommendations for education reform in South Africa by the OECD report ...........2-244

Exhibit 3.1:
3.2:
3.3:
3.4:
Regional integration schemes in Southern Africa ......................................................................3-64

Chinas top ten African trading partners in 2008........................................................................3-67
Chinese investment in Africa .....................................................................................................3-69
The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa 1996 ............................................................3-100

Exhibit 4.1:
4.2:
4.3:
The five technological transformations ......................................................................................4-19

A brief history of nanotechnology ..............................................................................................4-46
Major flows of funding for R&D in South Africa, 2006/07 ...........................................................4-65
Chapter 5: The Natural/Physical Environment

Exhibit 5.1:
5.2:
5.3:
5.4:
5.5:
5.6:
5.7:
Hunger is increasing ................................................................................................................ 5-19

Actions to overcome water-food-environment issues and challenges ...................................... 5-53
Strategies to alleviate water scarcity in South Africa ................................................................ 5-54
Fish and aquaculture scenario for sub-Saharan Africa, 2006-2015 ......................................... 5-64
The impact of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture .................................................... 5-65
Strategic plan for the environmental sector 2008-2013: Marine and coastal
management ....................................................................................................................... 5-70
Estimated timelines for IRP2010 ............................................................................................ 5-107
xviii
IFR
List of Exhibits
5.8:
5.9:
5.10:
5.11:
5.12:
5.13:
5.14:
5.15:
5.16:
5.17:
5.18:
5.19:
5.20:
5.21:
5.22:
5.23:
5.24:
5.25:
5.26:
5.27:
5.28:
5.29:
5.30:
5.31:
5.32:
Examples of emission reduction activities by selected high emitter companies ..................... 5-114
Trends shown by agreed indicators of progress towards the 2010 biodiversity target ........... 5-118
Protected areas ...................................................................................................................... 5-127
Ecosystem restoration ............................................................................................................ 5-127
Twenty of the worlds worst pollution problems ...................................................................... 5-133
Other top pollution problems .................................................................................................. 5-133
Understanding pollutants and their sources ........................................................................... 5-134
Water quality problems in South Africa .................................................................................. 5-143
Possible health and environmental effects of major air pollutants .......................................... 5-155
Sound levels and human response ........................................................................................ 5-157
South African legislation impacting on four waste-related international conventions. ............ 5-161
Green jobs progress to date and future potential ................................................................... 5-163
Commercial opportunities in South Africas environmental industry ....................................... 5-164
Global greenhouse gas emission by sector ........................................................................... 5-172
A summary of measurement of changes in the earths temperature ...................................... 5-176
Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend, and projections for
th
extreme weather events for which there is an observed late 20 century trend ................ 5-177
Risks and opportunities for different economic sectors .......................................................... 5-185
Summary of sector risks ......................................................................................................... 5-186
Highest priority climate change impacts on the UK energy industry....................................... 5-187
Climate drivers, thresholds, climate shifts and social consequences ..................................... 5-189
Key landmark events in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ...... 5-192
Summary of the Kyoto Protocol.............................................................................................. 5-194
Typical projects that could qualify for CDM financing ............................................................. 5-197
Indicators in support of the project approval criteria ............................................................... 5-198
CDM project status ................................................................................................................ 5-199

Exhibit 6.1:
6.2:
6.3:
6.4:
6.5:
6.6:
6.7:
6.13:
A new world order? ...................................................................................................................6-21

Employment equity in South Africa: Arguments for and against ...............................................6-71
South Africas global competitiveness .......................................................................................6-79
South Africas two economies ...................................................................................................6-83
Ingredients for sustained and high economic growth ................................................................6-83
IMF comments about South Africas economy, Sep 2010 ........................................................6-85
The NIPF vision for South Africas industrialisation trajectory ...................................................6-87
The NIPF and its links with other policy initiatives .....................................................................6-87

Exhibit 7.1:
7.2:
Core challenges of sustainable development..............................................................................7-6

The sustainable development timeline ........................................................................................7-7
xix
IFR

Business Futures 2010

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2010 Institute for Futures Research

Chapter 1: Thinking about the Future and Strategic Transformation

Chapter 2: The Social Environment

Human development: People are the real wealth of a nation ..............................................................................2-69

Chapter 3: The Political Environment

Policy choices .............................................................................................................................................3-26

Chapter 4: The Technological Environment

Chapter 5: Natural Environment

Space pollution .........................................................................................................................................5-158

Chapter 6: The Economic Environment

Household income trends ...........................................................................................................................6-38

Chapter 7: Sustainable Development

Images of the future ................................................................................................................... 1-8

Chapter 2: The Social Environment

The five interdependent dimensions of redesigning social systems and defining

Slum population as percentage of urban population by region, 2010..................................... 2-130

Number of learners enrolled in secondary education by grade and the potential

Chapter 3: The Political Environment

Export performance by key destination .................................................................................... 3-42

Chapter 4: The Technological Environment

The technology S-curve ............................................................................................................. 4-7

Chapter 5: The Natural Environment

The trend in arable land used globally, 1700-1990 .................................................................... 5-7

income and expenditure of the SA mining industry, 2009 ........................................................ 5-87

Chapter 6: The Economic Environment

Components of FCE ................................................................................................................. 6-41

Chapter 7: Sustainable Development

Reasons for reporting on sustainability .................................................................................... 7-20

Continuum of futures methods and techniques ........................................................................ 1-17

Chapter 2: The Social Environment

Chapter 3: The Political Environment

Chapter 4: The Technological Environment

Selected indicators of technological competitiveness potential ................................................ 4-12

Chapter 5: The Natural/Physical Environment

Global land availability by territory/country ................................................................................. 5-6

Trends in food aid in Africa, 2000/02 to 2004/06 ...................................................................... 5-20

Chapter 6: The Economic Environment

Population and economic output by region and selected countries............................................ 6-7

Chapter 7: Sustainable Development

Sustainability challenges, competencies and opportunities ..................................................... 7-27

A selection of paradoxical statements .......................................................................................1-15

Chapter 2: The Social Environment

Diversity tensions: Challenges, lessons learnt and social action ...............................................2-11

Chapter 3: The Political Environment

Regional integration schemes in Southern Africa ......................................................................3-64

Chapter 4: The Technological Environment

The five technological transformations ......................................................................................4-19

Chapter 5: The Natural/Physical Environment

Hunger is increasing ................................................................................................................ 5-19

Chapter 6: The Economic Environment

A new world order? ...................................................................................................................6-21

Chapter 7: Sustainable Development

Core challenges of sustainable development..............................................................................7-6

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