City of Cape Town

DISCUSSION PAPER

DEMOGRAPHICS SCENARIO
August 2010

Disclaimer/Caveat:
PLEASE NOTE THE STATUS OF THE DOCUMENT: This document is an internal discussion document and has been prepared as a background document and informant to a number of strategies and processes currently underway in the City of Cape Town. These include a Strategic Framework for a City Development Strategy, the draft Spatial Development Framework and others. The document has not been formally approved by Council or any of its political structures. Should there be an expert who would like to refine or improve it, the City would welcome such submissions or comments. These can be sent to: Carol Wright Manager: Strategic Information Strategy and Planning Directorate carol.wright@capetown.gov.za

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS

Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper

Updated 27th August 2010 1

City of Cape Town DISCUSSION PAPER

27 August 2010
th

DEMOGRAPHICS SCENARIO

1.

Introduction

Information on Cape Towns population and how the citys demographic profile may change in the future is an important yet highly challenging trend to establish and understand. Demographics concern human populations - their sizes, compositions, distributions, densities, growth, and other characteristics, as well as the causes and consequences of changes in these factors. Demography is the basis of all planning activities and developmental processes, and has important implications for policymakers in both the public and private sectors (Institute for Futures Research (IFR), 2009). Reliable demographic analysis depends on good and current data. This has been and continues to be one of the major challenges for Cities in South Africa. Detailed and comprehensive city level data is only available via the national census processes which have defined timeframes, with the last census being 2001 and the next planned for 2011 (data expected to be available in 2013). In the absence of complete, recent population data for Cape Town, the approach used for this discussion paper in the preparation time and data sources available, is to present detailed national population projection data and trends produced by the Institute for Futures Research (Haldenwang, 2010; IFR, 2009; 2010;) as a context and informant for a section on Cape Towns population and population projections. Current and available Cape Town population and trend information, although limited, is then reported drawing on the Citys reports (2008, 2009, 2010) using Statistics South Africa (STATS SA), data, including the trends analysis completed for the City by Dorrington (2000, 2005). Additional supporting information is drawn from recent population reports produced by the Provincial Government of the Western Cape (2009) and the South African Cities Network (SACN, 2006). The discussion paper concludes with high-level implications of the demographics information and an indication of possible actions in the short term to address the Citys demographics information needs. Note related to the use of demographic data and projections: Dorrington (2005) and other demographers warn users of demographic projections that projections are not predictions but rather vehicles for better understanding the way the population may change in future. This warning is particularly relevant to projections of regional populations within South Africa today where the needed city-level information on fertility, mortality and migration and the prevalence and future patterns of HIV and AIDS (taking into account possible interventions) is most challenging and usually not available or comprehensive.

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS

Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper

Updated 27th August 2010 2

2.

Demographic Trends for South Africa 1985 - 2030

The Institute for Futures Research recently produced new population projections for South Africa covering the period 1985 - 2040 by using the Spectrum Policy Modelling System of The Futures Group International. (Spectrum is a useful computer programme to determine the demographic impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic since it consists of two models, viz, DemProj, a demographic model that produces population projections in the absence of AIDS, and AIM, an AIDS impact model that projects the impact of the epidemic. Data about the base-year population by age, sex and population group were derived from the ASSA2003 model of the Actuarial Society of South Africa. (IFR, 2010). STATS SA also uses Spectrum) . 2.1 Summary of Overall Trends - South Africa
(Source: Data and text - Haldenwang, 2010; IFR, 2010)

2.1.1

Key Population Size Trends

The total SA population will continue to grow in absolute numbers over the next 20 years, but significantly slower than over the past 25 years and significantly slower than in the absence of AIDS Over the past 20 years South Africas population has grown rapidly: 1990 - 36.1 million, 2010 49.1 million (ie, by 13 million) as a result of high fertility and in-migration rates. However, although the population is projected to continue growing in absolute numbers over the next 20 years, reaching 52.2m by 2030, the growth will be significantly slower than over the past two decades (refer figure below)

(Source: Haldenwang, Institute for Futures Research, 2010)

In the early 2030s, the population is projected to start declining in absolute size, mainly as a result of significantly lower fertility rates and the impact of the AIDS epidemic. In the absence of AIDS, the South African population would currently (2010) total 53,8m instead of 49.1m. The general trend of increasing numbers and proportions of black Africans versus declining numbers and proportions of whites will continue. KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng will remain the most populous provinces in South Africa, followed by Limpopo, the Eastern and the Western Cape.
City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper Updated 27th August 2010 3

2.1.2. Population growth rate trends The annual population growth rate of the total SA population is declining, but will remain positive until 2030 Although the South African population is projected to continue to increase in size, at least until 2030, the annual population growth rate has been declining since the early 1990s, and is projected to continue declining, starting to turn negative by around 2030 (refer figure below). In the absence of HIV and AIDS, the population growth rate is projected to be significantly higher, but nevertheless also declining. AIDS thus slows down population growth in South Africa.

(Source: Haldenwang, Institute for Futures Research, 2010)

All four population groups will experience declining population growth rates, with whites already experiencing negative growth The declining population growth rates reflect declining fertility rates and the impact of HIV and AIDS, especially in the case of black Africans. Whites have been experiencing negative population growth rates since the 1990s as a result of extremely low fertility rates (rates well below the replacement level of 2.1) and relatively high emigration rates. All provinces will experience declining population growth rates, with Limpopo and the Western Cape currently growing the fastest and the Free State already experiencing negative growth

2.1.3

Fertility trends

Total fertility rates (TFRs) have, and will continue to decline over the next 20 years TFR is the number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years. The TFRs have been declining among all four population groups in South Africa since the 1950s, reflecting the impact of education, urbanisation, rising income levels and contraceptive use. It is expected that TFRs will continue to decline over the next three decades, although at a significantly slower rate.
City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper Updated 27th August 2010 4

Whites and Asians experience already below replacement level TFRs. Blacks will continue to have the highest TFR, although declining and projected to reach replacement level after 2030, around 2040 (refer figure below)

(Source: Haldenwang,Institute for Futures Research, 2010)

All provinces are projected to experience declining TFRs, with the highest TFRs currently in Limpopo and the Eastern Cape and the lowest TFRs in Gauteng and Western Cape.

2.1.4

Mortality trends

Declining trend in mortality rates of the 1950-1990 period has been reversed and mortality rates will continue to increase among black Africans and coloureds due to AIDS, and due to population ageing among whites and Asians (refer to figure below)

(Source: Haldenwang,Institute for Futures Research, 2010)

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper Updated 27th August 2010 5

As in the rest of the world, mortality has been declining, reflecting improved living and health conditions, as well as better access to water sources and sanitation facilities. However, since the 1990s, crude death rates (CDRs) the number of deaths per 1 000 of the population - have been increasing among all four population groups. In the case of black Africans (and to a lesser degree also coloureds) this is as a result of the direct impact of the AIDS epidemic which causes an excess of deaths, and in the case of whites and Asians due to the impact of population ageing. All provinces will experience increasing mortality AIDS has reversed the declining trend in child mortality experienced since the 1950s, especially among black Africans during 1990-2000 Between now and 2030, child mortality rates are expected to decline in all provinces

2.1.5

Life expectancy trends

Worldwide life expectancy at birth (the average number of years a new-born infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of birth were to stay throughout the childs life) has been increasing due to declining death rates, reflecting success in combating mortality and morbidity. However, in South Africa this trend has been reversed since the 1990s, especially among black Africans and coloureds as a direct result of AIDS. In the case of black Africans, the epidemic is projected to result in 24.7 years of life lost, on average, by 2030. In the absence of AIDS, life expectancy at birth among black Africans is projected to reach 74.2 years by 2030, instead of 51.5 years. Whites and Asians will continue to have the highest life expectancy From 2020 onwards, life expectancy amongst all population groups and provinces is expected to slowly resume its increasing trend of the 1950 -1995 period Although the difference in life expectancy between males and females is declining due to severe impact of AIDS on women, females will continue to experience higher life expectancy than males (refer to figure below)

(Source: Haldenwang, Institute for Futures Research, 2010)

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper Updated 27th August 2010 6

2.1.6 Age structure/ageing trends Although still in the early stages, population ageing in SA is a demographic reality The age structure of a population is extremely important for planning purposes. In demographic terms, the South African population has moved from being a very young population (with 40% children <15 years and only 3.6% aged 65+) in 1985 to one of intermediate age (with 31% children and 5% aged 65+) in 2010. In less than a decade - by 2018, South Africa will have moved into the most advanced stage of population ageing with more than 7% aged 65+ and will be classified as an old population in demographic terms. By 2030, it is projected that 8% of the population will be older persons and 27% children thus an ageing population (refer table below)

(Source: Haldenwang, Institute for Futures Research, 2010)

Declining proportions of children and increasing proportions of older persons and increasing median ages Since the four population groups in South Africa have different fertility and mortality trends (different stages in the demographic transition), their age structures also differ significantly. Although black Africans have the youngest age structure and whites the oldest, the projections indicate that all four groups are experiencing population ageing with increasing numbers and proportions of older persons, declining numbers and proportions of children and increasing median ages Note that almost two-thirds of the South African population is, and will continue to be, aged 1564, the potentially economically active part of a population (refer also table above) This is referred to as the demographic dividend or window of opportunity for accelerated economic development. However, this opportunity for economic growth can only be realised if the challenge of creating gainful employment for the large numbers of persons of working age is met. Since 1985, age dependency ratios (the number of children <15 years plus the number of older persons aged 65+ as a percentage of those aged 15-64) have been declining among all four population groups, reflecting declining numbers and proportions of children. However, as the four population groups move through the population ageing process and the proportions of older persons increase, the age dependency ratios are also expected to rise, especially among whites and Asians, the populations most advanced in the ageing process. AIDS is slowing down population ageing, especially among black Africans.
City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper Updated 27th August 2010 7

2. 2 Key Demographic Trends South Africa 2010 2030 Continued population growth until 2030 Declining growth rates Declining fertility rates Increasing mortality rates Slowly increasing life expectancy at birth Population ageing Changing age structures Increasing median ages Rising dependency ratios The HIV and AIDS epidemic is projected to continue to have a significant impact on the demography of South Africa

Key demographic indicators for the South African population for the period 2010 - 2040 are summarised in the table below.
(Note: the figures may differ from those quoted above due to the differing outer projection year ie 2040. The projection model was run using 1985-2040 as the study period.)

Key demographic indicators for the South African population, 2010 - 2040 Indicator 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Population size 50 725 52 015 52 971 53 565 53 809 (m) Racial composition % Asian/ 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 % Black African 79.5 79.7 79.9 80.2 80.5 % Coloured 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.3 % White 9.0 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.8 Sex ratio 98.0 99.4 100.6 101.6 102.4 (males/100 females) Annual population 0.60 0.39 0.29 0.17 0.07 growth rate (%) Total fertility rate 2.38 2.31 2.23 2.15 2.15 Crude mortality 15.1 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.1 rate Life expectancy 50.8 50.4 50.8 51.4 51.8 at birth (years): Total Male 51.4 51.5 51.9 52.4 53.0 Female 50.2 49.2 49.7 50.2 50.7 Age composition: 29.1 27.7 26.6 25.6 24.7 % <15 % 15-64 65.2 65.8 65.8 65.3 64.8 % 65+ 5.7 6.5 7.6 9.1 10.5 Median age 26.1 27.6 29.2 30.7 32.1 (years) Age dependency 53.3 51.9 52.1 53.2 54.3 ratio Old-age 8.7 9.8 11.6 13.9 16.3 dependency ratio

2035 53 741

2040 53 288

2.3 80.8 9.3 7.6 103.3

2.3 81.0 9.4 7.3 104.0

-0.03 2.07 17.4 52.4

-0.15 1.98 17.7 52.8

53.5 51.1 23.7 64.7 11.6 33.4 54.5 17.9

54.1 51.6 22.8 64.8 12.4 34.6 54.3 19.2

(Source: Institute for Futures Research, 2010)

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS

Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper

Updated 27th August 2010 8

3.

Key Demographic Trends - Cape Town 2030

The City monitors the estimated population of Cape Town between the census years using data from various surveys conducted by Statistics South Africa. These include Labour Force Surveys, General Household Surveys and the 2007 Community Survey. Whilst these surveys do provide some data, they have limitations as they are based on samples and also do not include the full range of demographic data needed for the Citys planning. The absence of city level data continues to be a challenge. 3.1 Cape Town Estimated Population and composition 1996 2007 In line with South Africas population growth trends, the Cape Towns population has also increased over the past decades, with the population estimates from the 2007 Community Survey indicating that the citys population had grown by 20, 9% since 2001 and 36.4 % since 1996. In 2007 the citys population was estimated to be close to 3.5 m people. (City of Cape Town, 2008) The table below also indicates that the number of Black Africans showed the largest increase (89.4%) since 1996 followed by 64.6% for Asians. The number of Whites increased by 24.3% and Coloureds by 24.1%.

(Source: Community Survey 2007, STATS SA)

The current estimated population figures (2009) for Cape Town by ethic group indicates that the 47% of the population are Coloureds, 38% Black Africans, 15% White and less than 1% Asian. These are percentages are showing similar trends in distributions to the 2007 data.

Black Year African Coloured Asian White June Number 1,395,670 1,720,293 14,656 541,407 2009 38.01% 46.85% 0.40% 14.74% (Source: Labour Force Survey Q2 2009(a), STATS SA)

Total 3,672,026 100.00%

The increase in Cape Towns population over a period of time and the more rapid growth in since 2001 can also be noted from the graph below, which also provides a break down of population by gender. The continuing trend from 1996 is that there are more females than males (Provincial Government of the Western Cape (PGWC), 2009).

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS

Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper

Updated 27th August 2010 9

Cape Town metro population

2100000

1800000

1500000

1200000

900000

600000

300000

0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Female Male

(Source: PGWC, 2009)

3.2 Age Distribution The age distribution of the Cape Town population indicates that the percentage of the population in the potentially economically active group (aged 15 to 64 years) has increased since 1996 while that of the youth (aged 0 to 14 years) has decreased. The percentage of aged (65 years and older) remained constant from 1996 to 2001 and then increased in 2007.

(Source: Community Survey 2007, STATS SA)

3.3 Migration Migration is an important demographic process in shaping the age structure and distribution of the population. The 2007 Community Survey indicates that a total of 190,256 people moved into Cape Town after October 2001 from all provinces other than the Western Cape as well as from outside of South Africa. This includes 30,964 who were born after October 2001 and whose place of birth was not the Western Cape. From the data available it is not possible to determine the number of people who moved into Cape Town from other areas of the Western Cape. The largest percentage came from the Eastern Cape (44.9%), followed by those who came from outside of South Africa (19.5%) and from Gauteng (17.3%) (refer table below)
City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper Updated 27th August 2010 10

(Source: Community Survey 2007, STATS SA)

The number of people moving into Cape Town from other provinces in South Africa declined from the period October 1996/September 2001 to October 2001/February 2007. During both periods the largest number came from the Eastern Cape followed by Gauteng. The number of people in the period October 2001/February 2007 excludes those born after October 2001 and those who in migrated from other Countries or regions.

(Source: Community Survey 2007, STATS SA)

The 2009 STATS SA mid year estimates indicate that for the period 20062011, it is estimated that Gauteng and Western Cape are estimated to experience a net inflow of migrants of approximately 364 400 and 94 600 respectively (STATS SA, 2009, 2010)

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS

Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper

Updated 27th August 2010 11

3.4 Cape Town Population Projections 1996-2031

In 1999 and 2005, the City commissioned projections of the population of Cape Town to assist with its planning processes. Factors taken into account when determining the projected population were birth rate, death rate, migration and the incidence of HIV. As migration was the most uncertain variable three options were calculated based on high, medium and low migration rates. The 1999 projection was based on the 1996 population census and the 2005 update was based on the 2001 population census but only projected the population to 2021.

The figure below presents population trends information from 1996 to 2031 including current information and the 1999 and 2005 high and medium population growth projections.

Figure: Cape Town Population Trends and Projections 1996 -2031

Dorrington 1999 - High Dorrington 1999 - Medium Dorrington 2005 - High Dorrington 2005 - Medium Population

5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200

Thousands

4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400

Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Jun-26 Jun-27 Jun-28 Jun-29 Jun-30 Jun-31 Jun-32

(Sources: Dorrington 200, 2005; STATS SA 1996, 2001. 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010)

The current data from Statistics South Africa (2009; 2010) shows that the population is currently increasing faster that that projected in the 2005 projection study and the estimated population is already higher than that projected at the 2005 high migration rate. The current population estimates are in line with the medium migration projection from the 1999 projections. Based on the information available, the population projection done in 1999 gives the best estimate of the population of Cape Town to 2031. The table below from the Dorrington 2000 report is a comparison of projections of the Cape Town population predicated on High, Medium and Low assumptions of the input variables of fertility, mortality, migration and the prevalence patterns as well as the future spread of HIV/AIDS.

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS

Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper

Updated 27th August 2010 12

It is interesting to note that the total population of the Cape Town is expected to grow by almost 60% over the 35 year projection period. The medium projection is highlighted in bold as the possible best estimate of the population estimates for Cape Town for the period 2011-2031

High/medium/low projections: Cape Town population (Dorrington, 1999)

HIGH MEDIUM LOW 2001 3 186 938 3 154 238 3 121 532 2006 3 646 156 3 547 055 3 447 946 2011 4 008 402 3 820 847 3 633 286 2016 4 292 446 3 997 718 3 702 990 2021 4 538 385 4 119 504 3 700 595 2026 4 769 669 4 208 444 3 647 071 2031 4 976 987 4 255 857 3 534 371

(Dorrington, 2000)

The table below reflects estimated growth of the different population groups within Cape Town in terms of Medium case assumptions. By the end of 2031, the Black population is expected to just exceed the Coloured population. Each of these groups will constitute approximately 40% of the total Cape Town population.

Table: Medium projections: Cape Town Population Groups (Dorrington, 1999)

Population Group Num % Num Black % Num Coloured % Num White % Num TOTAL % (Dorrington, 2000) Asian 2001 47,252 1.50% 984,452 31.21% 1,454,346 46.11% 668,188 21.18% 3,154,238 100.00% 2006 57,742 1.63% 1,225,695 34.56% 1,572,766 44.34% 690,851 19.48% 3,547,054 100.00% 2011 67,388 1.76% 1,387,606 36.32% 1,655,042 43.32% 710,811 18.60% 3,820,847 100.00% 2016 75,546 1.89% 1,496,267 37.43% 1,697,148 42.45% 728,756 18.23% 3,997,717 100.00% 2021 82,334 2.00% 1,581,397 38.39% 1,711,661 41.55% 744,113 18.06% 4,119,505 100.00% 2026 88,383 2.10% 1,653,399 39.29% 1,712,078 40.68% 754,584 17.93% 4,208,444 100.00% 2031 93,541 2.20% 1,703,802 40.03% 1,698,536 39.91% 759,977 17.86% 4,255,856 100.00%

3.4.1

High-level review of use of Dorrington Population Projections 2000 or 2005.

As noted above, based on the trends information available and in the absence of any updated projections or detailed demographic analysis, the Dorrington 1999 population projection (2000 report) gives the best estimate of the population of Cape Town to 2031. The explanation for this suggestion is based on the following: Currently, the projection in the Dorrington 2000 report is the only projection the City has that goes to 2031. (The 2005 report only projected estimated population to 2021) A review of the base population, fertility, mortality and migration assumptions used in the Dorrington 2000 and 2005 models, indicates that the main assumption variations between the two models are the use of an updated the ASSA2003 model for HIV mortality in 2005 and different migration assumptions, in 2000, the 1991-1996 rate was used and in 2005 the 1996 2001 rate.
Updated 27th August 2010 13

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS

Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper

The observation that in 2008, the population estimate for Cape Town was already closest to the high migration projection from Dorrington 2005 and with a seemingly steep up-ward trend (refer to graph above), suggests that the population of Cape Town is increasing at a higher rate than that projected in the 2005 Dorrington model. The reasons for this increase will be varied, complex and interacting, however a main reason could be the different migration patterns experienced since 2001 namely in-migration from a range of destinations international, continental, regional and national. In addition, based on the estimated population for Cape Town from the Statistics South Africa data (General Household Surveys and Labour Force Surveys in particular) as well as the population estimate from the Citys Urban Growth Monitoring System, the estimated population is at present closest to the medium migration projection from Dorrington 2000. This supports the suggestion that without access to any updated or refined population projections for Cape Town, the medium Dorrington 1999 population is used as the possible best estimate of the population estimates for Cape Town for the period 2011-2031. The above suggestion has also been used in the chapter on Drivers of Urban Growth in the draft Spatial Development Framework, which is in line with the corporate approach of encouraging the use of a consistent set of demographic figures by City Departments as inputs to strategic and operational planning processes. 3. 5 Cape Towns population trends in relation to other large Citys in South Africa. Using the 1996 Census, 2001 Census and 2007 Community Survey data population growth rates for the three largest South African urban and economic centres Johannesburg, Cape Town and eThekweni (Durban), are as follows:

Municipality Cape Town Johannesburg eThekweni Municipality

19962001 12.84% 22.32% 12.32%

Growth 19962007 36.44% 47.46% 26.06%

20012007 20.91% 20.55% 12.23%

Population 1996 2001 2007 Cape Town 2,563,095 2,892,243 3,497,097 Johannesburg 2,636,770 3,225,309 3,888,180 eThekweni 2,751,193 3,090,122 3,468,086
(Sources: STATS SA, 1996. 2001, 2007)

Over the period since the last Census in 2001, Cape Town has experienced a similar growth to Johannesburg during the period 2001-2007, with a higher comparative growth rate of 20.91% and a significantly higher growth in relation to eThekweni (Durban). Johannesburg remains the city with the highest population. This trend is supported by the South African Cities , State of Cities Report 2006 which highlights that the populations of the nine major cities in South Africa have grown considerably since the mid1990s at an average annual rate of 1,92%. The report also highlights that Cape Towns population growth rate has been consistently higher than the total population growth rate for the country. This is partially confirmed by the interCity of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper Updated 27th August 2010 14

provincial migration analyses presented by Statistics SA (2009), which indicates that Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal had a positive net migration rate during the period 20012006. The Statistics SA estimates suggest that the major metropolitan areas in these three provinces have experienced a positive net in migration. The slowdown in city and national growth rates can probably be ascribed to reduced fertility levels over the last decade and the impact of recent Aids deaths. The explanation for this counter-intuitive finding lies in relative urban growth outside the nine major cities. Secondary cities and other towns experienced relatively high population growth compared to the major cities and rural areas, confirming a trend identified in the 2004 State of the Cities Report. (SACN State of Cities report 2006 (pages 3-2 3-5) 3.6 Key Demographic Trends Cape Town Overall Trends 2010 - 2030 The overall trend is that Cape Towns population has grown and will continue to grow significantly each year, both from natural births (although at a slower rate, with fertility levels declining) as well as in-migration. Average household sizes have been slowly decreasing from 3.92 in 1996 to 3.72 in 2001, with the current average of 3.55 (General Household Survey, 2008), likely to continue to decline into the future. One of the largest unknown variables is the nature and extent of migration, both internal and trans-national. Whilst current migration data is very difficult to access, migration researchers agree that the various types of migration flows as a broad trend and driver are likely to remain and possibly increase in Southern Africa into the future. According to the IFR (2009), the primary flows of international migrants are and will continue to be from less developed to more developed countries and between less developed countries. Africa will be a large source of migrants resulting in a continued brain drain. Cape Town will continue to experience a lot of internal and external migration The number of refugees and displaced persons is likely to increase possibly adding to Cape Towns in migration into the future. HIV and AIDS also influence the growth of population and recent trends indicate a lower mortality rate than originally predicted. The female population exceeds and will continue to exceed the male population Although still in the early stages, population ageing in South Africa is a demographic reality 4. Initial possible implications for City Planning The future population although ageing, will have increasing proportions of persons of working age the so-called window of opportunity, which should be taken into account in future strategies. There needs to be substantial investments in health and education, and a stable and effective government to support the stimulation of economic growth and achieve the benefits of demographic dividends ie where a relatively large share of the population is in work and boosting income and savings - producing more than they are consuming

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS

Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper

Updated 27th August 2010 15

There will be a need for skills development and retention strategies to support and encourage the economically active population and the older population to play an optimal role in Cape Towns economic development. There will be a need to simultaneously address the needs of a young, vulnerable population, including orphans and vulnerable children and an aging population Multiple social structures and different population groups will have different needs and services A focus on improved child and maternal health would have multiple benefits. A growing population will place pressure on: - land requirements - housing - health services - freshwater resources - scarce natural resources and energy requirements - food security - bio-habitats - greenhouse emissions which will require particular attention and planning (IFR, 2009) There will be a slowdown in meeting the primary target of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), viz, to reduce the proportion of populations living in poverty and inhumane conditions by 2015.

5. Conclusion The discussion paper suggests complex and dynamic population and demographic trends for Cape Town into the future. Information derived from the next Census in 2011 will be critical as it will assist with providing a better understanding of the way the population in Cape Town is changing, including fertility, mortality, migration and HIV and AIDS patterns. However, as the Census 2011 data will only be available in 2013, there is an urgent need for detailed and updated demographic data for Cape Town. Initial discussions have been held with the PGWC Department of Social Development to explore a possible joint project to update Cape Town projections. PGWC has the capacity for demographic modelling. The key positives around this collaborative work are that PGWC uses a similar approach to the City with regard to demographic data i.e. as far as possible using official data from STATS SA and other official sources and that resources would be shared, there would be little financial cost to the City and skills would be mutually developed. Another option is to commission a specialist organisation or individual to assist with the update (e.g. the IFR, Dorrington and others).
Prepared by: Strategy and Planning Directorate Strategic Development Information and GIS Strategic Information Branch

Contact Person: Carol Wright Email: carol.wright@capeown.gov.za

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper Updated 27th August 2010 16

References: 1. City of Cape Town, 2008: Demographic and Socio-economic Trends for Cape Town 19962007, Author K Small 2. Haldenwang, B, 2010: Key Demographic Trends for South Africa to 2030. Institute for Futures Research. 3. Dorrington, R. E. 2000: Projection of the Population of the Cape Metropolitan Area 1996-2031 4. Dorrington, R. E. 2005 Projection of the Population of the City of Cape Town 2001 2021 5. Institute for Futures Research 2009: Business Futures A Roux (ed) 6. Institute for Futures Research 2010: Key Demographic Trends for South Africa to 2040. Strategy Insights, Social Compiled by B Haldenwang, Vol 15 No 2 June 7. Provincial Government of the Western Cape (PGWC) (2009): Population Projections in the district municipalities of the Western Cape Province, 1996 2016 Compiled by N Zinyakatira Directorate Research and Population Development, Department of Social Development 8. South African Cities Network 2006: State of Cities Report 9. Statistics South Africa (STATS SA) 1996 and 2001: Census 1996; Census 2001 10. STATS SA 2007: Community Survey 11. STATS SA 2008: General Household Survey 12. STATS SA 2009(a): Labour Force Survey Quarter 2 13. STATS SA 2009: Statistical Release P0302 Mid Year Population Estimates June 2009 14. STATS SA 2010: Statistical Release P0302 Mid Year Population Estimates June 2010

City of Cape Town Strategy and Planning Strategic Information and GIS

Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper

Updated 27th August 2010 17