Forecasting in Uncertainity MKmetric Presentation Cracow 20110309-Final

Air Transport Market Forecasting in Dynamic Market Environment Air Transport Market Forecasting inwith Uncertain Data Dynamic
Market Environment with Uncertain Data

System Approach (x-via, SONAR) System Approach 1992 SONAR) MKmetric (x-via,
MKmetric 1992
Dr. Benedikt Mandel

Cracow, 10-11.03.2011
Dr. Benedikt Mandel

Karlsruhe, 28.02.2011
C O N F I D E N T I A L | www.mkm.de
Agenda
MKmetric Methodology Application x-via web Applikation SONAR Examples from former MKmetric studies Results of network simulations for Airport Pozna (POZ)
1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011
MKmetric Company profile

MKmetric was founded 1993 as spin-off of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology based on the idea to apply science. The organisation is an independent institute. Special fields of business: - air transport analysis and forecasting, - simulation of strategic, tactical and political decisions in air transport, - transport systems consulting, - provision of software systems for transport forecasting and strategic analysis, - provision of online solutions and tools for tactical air transport system analysis, - development of web applications. Experience: 20 years research, 17 years transport consulting. Special fields of scientific interest are the development and application of: - level & discrete choice algorithms, - OR routines for process optimisation, - programs to encounter system interdependencies. Major qualification: - data and data gap handling, - multimodal demand & supply modelling, - analysis & simulation as well as - the development & test of policy instruments and forecasts, - design, programming and establishment of related software and - assignment of tailor made hardware components.
MKmetric Project References / Clients

Know how in EC Framework Program work (DG TREN): STEMM, BRIDGES, ASSEMBLING, Spotlights, TEN PAN, Forecast 2020, APRON, STAC, ETIS-Base, -Agent, -Link, ETISplus, Worldnet - global air cargo, Toolqit, Interconnect; i.g. responsible for data/network/models/analysis/forecast/scenarios, pax (all modes), air cargo Know how in Interreg Program work (DG Regio): SEABIRD (Baltic Sea), SEAPLANE (North Sea), EUROPLANE (CEE) - air transport market potential and route potential forecast and EC policy issues. Air transport market potential and route potential analyses and forecasts for several airports (hubs, intl. network, regional), airlines (network, regional, charter, LCC) in 20 European countries (since 1993) Numerous projects for railway operators (high speed, airport connectivity, line service, track), consultancies (assistance, data) and universities (research, data) as well as Ministries of Transport (national, federal) and regional authorities Active as: Project-Coordinator, WP-leader, Task-leader and Trustee. Air transport projects in Poland: - Airport Pozna - Airport d - LOT Polish Airlines > Route potential forecast ex-post (2005), update with scenarios (2007/2008) > Route potential forecast ex-post (2008) > Route potential forecast ex-post for Warsaw Task 1 (2007-2008) forecast split for PLL LOT and CENTRALWINGS
- Ministry of Infrastructure > Analyses of the Polish air transport system with scenarios (2009/2010) Forecast all airports 2015, 2025, 2035 with simulation of 18 scenarios
For further details please visit our web site: www.mkm.de
1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011 3
Agenda
MKmetric Method Application x-via web Application SONAR Examples from former MKmetric studies Results of network simulations for Airport Pozna (POZ)
Method The situation of the travellers and their behaviour are the main issue.
Trip yes or no? Where to? Which modality? What carrier? When?
Car, train or plane? STR, FRA or MUC? Departure, when? By Metro to Airport or ...?
decision
Transparency taken from the presentation: Data for network planing in air transport; IVT-Seminar; Dr. Karl Echtermeyer; DLH AG June 2000; ETH Zrich 1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011 5
Method Data background - IATA Strategy Symposium 2010
!
Method Poor data supply background - SITA Trends Survey 2010 (Airline IT)
Today 40,8 % of tickets are direct sales from the airline to the traveller. Thereof - 25,8% by internet - 10,7% by call centre - 4,3% by interlining In 2013 the following targets are envisaged: - 55,1% direct sales whereby - 33,9% are by internet but - call centre and interlining remains stable Increasing activities by airlines using Smartphones features in 2013 for - ticket sales - 70% of all airlines / 85% of the big airlines (today) - flight status information - 86% - mobile online check-in - 80% (today 28%) - mobile electronic boarding pass - 76% - travel offers - 68% Increasing self service up to 2013 - agent check-in reducing from today 50,7% to 28,9% - kiosk check-in remains stable at 20% - kiosk ticket sales - 80% - more kiosks - 47% Introduction of booking portals by airlines up to 2013 - for travel agencies - 84% (today 41%) - for business clients - 82% (today 44%) - social networking functions - 55% (today 21%)
All activities listed will reduce within 2 years further the sample size, coverage and quality of the database used by classical forecast models!
7
Method Data background Air transport market information

Marketing Information Data Tapes / Billing and Settlement Process
Classic air transport forecast
100%
Ticket / Coupon data 50%
Why? - direct sales, e.g. internet - cost reduction - consolidators - GDS (Global Distribution System*)
Trend
Booking data
Ticket/Coupon, Booking data
Up to 1995
Size, type and structure of the market are well known.
Today
Up to 1995
Today
Fragmented market, new products, type, structure, faster shock waves, global drivers, new sales structure, limited rights using airline ticket sales data.
8
* Global Distribution System, z.B. AMADEUS, GALILEO, SABRE, TRAVELPORT
Method Market dynamics and Data supply

The market situation changed - differentiation inside the airline world (network, charter, LCC, all business) - consolidation by mergers and acquisitions (Lufthansa, BA & Iberia, AF & KLM, etc.) - development of global airline alliances (North & South America, Gulf, Asia, Russia?) - growing influence of Gulf Arab Airlines (huge aircraft orders) - new aircraft types (A380, B787, A350, A320 neo, B797?, CS-Series ) - new products on board (new classes, changes in fare structure, tariff decomposition) - new markets (short trips, migrations, multiple leisure trips, VF&R trips) Stable markets are going unstable - change of schedule faster (try & error) - growing power of economic drivers (GDP, kerosene, bank crises) - global disease effects (SARS, bird flue) - environmental catastrophes (volcano, hurricanes, earth quakes, flooding) - regulations (taxes, emission trading, environmental fees) New links to the customer - changing distribution channels (direct sales, GDS, non- GDS, Google -ITA) - new customer behaviour (social media Facebook, Twitter, YouTube) Changing competition - between airlines, alliances on flight segments and routes, between airports (hub, spoke) - with other modes (HSR, car, bus)
Trend based forecasts neither reflect the changes nor cope with the data leakage.
Method Data background for all MKmetric systems (VIA, SONAR, x-via web)
Volume observations e.g. - detailed Eurostat, national statistics (on flight, on stage) - airport, airline publications, IATA samples, - associations of airports and airlines, - link counting for road - transport figures for rail, ...
Consumer elasticity e.g. - airport surveys across Europe, - DE - KONTIV survey, mobility survey, - DK - national mobility survey, - CH - national travel survey, - EU - Dateline mobility survey, ...
Mode networks e.g. - air schedules (OAG, Cedion, ...), - information from the air transport industry, - surface networks (road, bus), - railway, ferry schedules , - MKm extensions, ...
Regional attractors e.g. - socio-economy (UN, IWF, OECD, EZB, ...), - satellite data (Corine aggregates), - tourist information - land use data, - meteorological data, ...
10
Method The point of view turns from the airport to the region as starting point of the trip decision. Therefore the traditional static view becomes a consumer oriented dynamic one.
Conventional / Traditional Modelling (Airport-Airport with fixed Isochrones)
Enriched point of view (System approach: Region-Region via multiple Routes)
11
Method MKmetric system approach MKmetric explains transport in a consistent way. No transport activity appears or vanishes unexplained.
Transport is embedded in its determinants
Air transport model
Model layers
Scenarios Determinants
Method MKmetric system approach Which modality? - Which mode? - Which route?
Types of modality Forms of modality*
Multimodality
For a trip from Poznan to Brussels use - the plane - the train - the private car or a coach
MultiMultimodality modality
Intermodality
For a trip from Poznan to Brussels by air starting from an airport in Berlin - and use the train to Berlin Zoo (+ Bus) - the private car to Berlin-Tegel
InterIntermodality modality
Intramodality
For a trip from Poznan to Brussels use the plane either on the route - POZ - FRA - BRU or - POZ - WAW - BRU or - WAW - BRU or - THF - BRU or ...
IntraIntramodality modality
MKmetric
13
Method MKmetric system approach APC Bielefeld - Hong Kong (business)
14
Method MKmetric system approach Display of consumer cost elasticity for a specific route.
15
Method MKmetric system approach Travellers consumer behaviour is non-linear. Thresholds influence the decision and activate changes in product choice. Thus consumers elasticity is a key issue to understand.
16
Method MKmetric system approach Travellers consumer behaviour is non-linear. Thresholds influence the decision and activate changes in product choice. Thus consumers elasticity is a key issue to understand.
Logit
:x
( )
( x k 1) k = ln( x )
k 0 k = 0
i, jCn
P(i) n =
U in U jn j
Point elasticity
Ceteris paribus variation of the demand for alternative i by a 1% change of the characteristic value of alternative i.
P(i) n x kin (P(i) n , x kin ) = x P(i) kin
Cross elasticity
Ceteris paribus variation of the demand for alternative j by a 1% change of the characteristic value of alternative i.
P(i) n x kjn (P(i) n , x kjn ) = x P(i) kjn n
17
Method MKmetric system approach - Excursus The price elasticity diversified by markets in the year 1991. Travel market (Hamburg base year 1991) research results from 1992/93 World-wide first scientific explanation for LCC- success
Domestic
Hamburg 1991
100% 80% 60% 40%
Europe
Hamburg 1991
Intercontinental
Hamburg 1991
80%
Vacation Vacation
40%
Change of passenger demand
60%
20%
40%
Vacation
0%
20%
Private
20%
0%
0%
Business
-20%
Business
Business
-20% -40% -60% -80%
-20%
-40%
-40%
Private Private
-60%
-60%
-100
-50
50
100
150
-80% 200 -100
-50
50
100
150
-80% 200 -100
-50
50
100
150
200
Price
Price variation per passenger in DM

Method MKmetric system approach Linking the model steps by a quasi-direct format (QDF) in the forecasting system
Each change in one layer of the econometric model will be re-calculated and considered in the next layer.
Generation/distribution
Modal split
total sum of utilities over all modes
Airport choice
total sum of utilities over all alternatives
Access/egress choice
total sum of utilities over all modes
Slot choice
total sum of utilities over all alternatives
Logical sequence but computed in reverse order

Method MKmetric system approach MKmetric approach to market investigation using multi level econometric models for simulation. Procedure to establish the reference case and its use for the simulation of scenarios.
Detailed information about the MKmetric System Approach can be found at www.mkm.de
Socioeconomy
Infrastructure
Urbanisation
Transport policy
Scenario definition
Reference Status
System Approach - generation - distribution - mode choice - airport/route choice - assignment
Statistics, observations, surveys, ...
Ex ante Assessment, evaluation, analyses of results
Ex post
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Method MKmetric system approach Iterative calibration process.
Generation
Model / Input adjustment Matrix Bounding
Distribution
Base statistic evaluation Matrix evaluation
Modal split
Mode choice assessment
Route choice
Airport / Route choice Assessment Statistic evaluation
Assignment
Link load assessment
The calibration is an iterative process where data from various sources and model results are assessed to detect irregularities, inconsistencies and errors. The arrows symbolise the principle process flow but due to the complexity the recursive parts and their nesting can not be displayed.
Method MKmetric system approach Principle scenario types at the different model stages. Generation of traffic: Socio-economic framework data (e.g. population, structure, GDP) Political decisions (e.g. taxes, security, noise charges) Distribution of traffic : Regional attractivities (e.g. type of region, temperature, sea, mountains) Political decisions (e.g. traffic rights, subsidies) Mode choice: Network / Service characteristics (e.g. time, cost, frequency, transfer, operation days) Political decisions (e.g. PSO, infrastructure investments) Airport / Route choice: Service-Structure (e.g. new route / closure, MCT, airline base, transfer node) Infrastructure (e.g. access / egress by surface modes, inter-modal routes) Assignment: Infrastructure networks (e.g. new airports, new HSR services) and/or changes of network attributes (e.g. capacity, speed, charges, tolls, fees)
Please note that the examples may as well be applicable in other model stages. 1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011 22
Method MKmetric system approach Excursus: Complexity and coverage. Regions: Europe on NUTS 3 level World (aggregates of administrative units) Relations: Region to Region demand matrix About 1900 x 1900 relationships Airports: Europe all scheduled services (e.g. delivered by OAG, HAFAS, web sites, own research) World - representative airports with scheduled services for all world regions Surface modes (Feeders / Competitors): Road - network ca. 2,8 Mio. links, up to county road level Rail whole network with real Europe-wide schedule data Alternatives: Intercontinental destinations represented by 16 alternatives per relation European destinations represented by 10 alternatives per relation National destinations represented by 7 alternatives per relation Trip purposes: business non-business (private u. vacation trips)
Agenda
MKmetric Method MKmetric applications SONAR, x-via web Application x-via web Application SONAR Examples from former MKmetric studies
24
x-via web - Online analyse and simulations tool Approach and focus. MKmetric approach : Best possible consistent reflection of the market based on determined information in an uncertain environment. Understanding of consumer reaction by their elasticities (price, time, frequency, alliance, comfort, ...). Assistance for independent analyses by an easy to use intuitive interface and download of all tables and graphs to the own desktop for further use. Tool optimised for online usage by clients with no browser restrictions, mobile access and fast response time. Focus of the x-via web tool: Concentration on the mode air transport. Coverage of commercial air traffic inbound, outbound, across and within Europe for all air service types (FSC, LCC, Charter carrier). Exploring the problem of intra-modality, the competition in the air transport system. Enhancing the transparency of the air transport market by own data maintenance, harmonisation and processing embedding multiple data sources (socio-economic, survey, mobility data, ...) circumventing GDS gaps e.g. due to internet sales providing full scaled interregional demand matrices matching latest statistics. Analyses of the competition among airports. Analyses of the competition among routes. Flexible scenario definition and conservative simulation. Benchmarking demand effects at the objective reference case displaying a full market picture of the previous year.
x-via web Scenario definition and simulation. Flexibility in the scenario definition: Add / delete air services. Change flight schedules. Change air service characteristics like time, frequency, day of operation, airline, alliance, aircraft, terminal. Change airport characteristics minimum connecting times in general and detailed. Modulate market volumes by introducing your expertise and ideas. Upload of multiple schedules (network, nodes, waves). Simulation of: non-linear consumer behaviour (consideration of thresholds), demand effects for one route or a network, an airport or market, local and transfer passengers.
26
x-via web The tool allows analyses out of three different point of view; the airport, the region and the route (airline). Region: Airport / Route choice of the traveller by route and trip purpose. Diffusion diagram of competing airports. Accessibility of regions. Airport: Catchment of the airport or a route for OD and transfer travellers. Proportional distribution of the demand in space. Airlines and air services at an airport. Route: Demand by routes at an airport (Spider). Feeder-Information of a flight segment (Sheaf). Top transfer destinations. Data coverage: Analyses available for all European airports with commercial traffic and regions.
27
x-via web Requirements of the tool usage.
Technical standard: - Internet access, - Browser - Firefox >=1.5 or Internet Explorer 6+ - or Opera mobile with UMTS. Cooperation between client and customer to benefit the further tool development: - analyses types, simulation types, - tool-handling, format, - content of working processes and / or standard reports, story, - statistics, airport surveys, - response about errors and difficulties. Availability: - 365 days 24 hours, except maintenance time and Force majeure, - assistance during the general working hours, exclusive vacation time.
28
Agenda
29
SONAR - Scan Of New Air Routes Approach and focus.

MKmetric approach: Best possible reflection of the market based on determined information, containing: traffic and infrastructure data for all transport modes, socio-economic data and other determinants. Understanding of consumer reaction by elasticity (price, time, frequency, alliance, comfort, ...). Successive dual-scan of the demand side for air passenger potentials and the supply side for competitive air passenger destinations. Iterative simulation of air passenger demand potential on the identified routes by optimised procedures under variation of the air service characteristics (e.g. carrier, schedule, frequency, ...). Conservative expert assessment and evaluation of each detected route after each simulation iteration. Focus of SONAR: Concentration on air transport. Coverage of commercial air traffic inbound, outbound, across and within Europe for all air service types (FSC, LCC, Charter carrier). Consideration of intra-modality and on request demand generation. Full scaled interregional demand matrices based on multiple data sources matching latest statistics and circumventing GDS data gaps (e.g. due to internet sales). Diversified market investigation of an airport, airline or region for the acquisition and route inauguration. Identification of potential new destinations, conservative assessment as base for financial calculation. Benchmarking demand effects at objective reference case displaying full market picture of previous year. Route specific analyses using standard formats for simplified comparison. Adaptable parameters for the definition of SONAR in respect of airline / air alliance, airport / terminal, air service types and predefined routes or networks.
SONAR - Scan Of New Air Routes The analyses is structured in four sections and are displayed in a standard format reflecting different point of views. 1. Theory (popular scientific explanation of the system approach) 2. Information and analyses of the airport location in focus - catchment, accessible GDP, population and employment, actual air services 3. Analyses for the identified and selected routes - Network sheaf - graph including successor and predecessor segments - by total pass. - Estimated demand, table - total, local, transfer, business, non-business pass. figures - Technical route information, table - distance, suggestion of airline, aircraft and schedule including corresponding capacity, frequency and load factor - Spatial distribution of passengers, maps - for both airports connected by the route - Top transfer destinations, table - from-via-to airport transfer connections by frequency - Airport choice - graph - identified route and competing alternative routes - Airlines market position at the destination airport, table - market shares of airlines serving the destination airport - European destinations linked by destination airport, status quo, graph - by frequency - Destinations served outside Europe by the destination airport, list of airports 4. Effects upon the airport in focus - catchment and its changes, aircraft movements, passengers, accessibility and its change - summary with recommendations
Examples of analyses displayed by SONAR can be found at www.mkm.de.
31
32
Examples - MKmetric long term forecast

Selected long term forecasts for small, medium and large airports (1993, 1995 and 2003 for the period up to 2010).
Berlin Brandenburg International Airport, planned new airport, forecasted in 1993. Hamburg Airport forecasted in 1995. Frankfurt Airport forecasted in 2003.
33
Results network simulations for Airport Pozna (POZ)

Example: Results of first route potential analysis for POZ (INTERREG project EUROPLANE 2004-2006)
New route POZ-DUB MKmetric forecast for 2006: Airport statistics POZ-DUB (04 - 12.2006):
= 61.208 pax = 55.853 pax (Aer Lingus 2x7, Ryanair 3x7)
Route POZ- DUB: Forecast from 2005 = Reality 2006!


Example: Historic reference from MKmetric forecast for POZ (2006) airport statistics
1)
Forecast for Barcelona BCN scheduled Centralwings. Operation: Barcelona Girona - scheduled Centralwings. Forecast for Paris CDG scheduled Air France or LOT with code share Air France. Operation: Paris Beauvais - scheduled Centralwings. Forecast for Rome FCO scheduled AlItalia or Air One or LOT with code share Air One. Operation: Rome CIA - scheduled Centralwings.
2)
3)
R) Remark:
The charter destinations Antalya, Heraklion and Tenerife (Pax 49.453) in operation show in total the charter potential indicated by the MKm forecast of 51.163 pax for all charter destinations (see next slide with orig. forecast). If vacationists can just select 3 out of 7 destinations the demand concentrates to a certain extent on the services available.

Example: Historic reference from MKmetric forecast for POZ (2006) simulation results
36
Examples - MKmetric route forecast

Selected route forecasts for small, medium and large airports. Final decision is with the airline.
Late but finally achieved.
37
Examples - MKmetric route forecast

Selected route forecasts for small, medium and large airports.
Suggested by MKm in 2004 2004 2004 2004 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Route HAJ-RJK OST-LPA OST-PMI SVG-TRD BRE-AGP BRE-ALC POZ-DUB POZ-TFS GOA-MAD MUC-BIO MUC-SIN MUC-TLL POZ-EDI Forecast Airline Actually Pax 2009 Pax [p.a.] suggested inaugurated in [p.a.] 10.000 14.000 11.000 69.000 50.000 42.000 61.000 5.000 47.000 100.000 103.000 48.000 61.000 Charter Charter Charter Braathens Air Berlin Air Berlin Ryanair Charter Iberia Lufthansa Lufthansa Lufthansa Ryanair 2005 2007 2007 2005 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 21.000 16.000 16.000 65.000 56.000 33.000 56.000 5.000 39.000 140.000 114.000 57.000 44.000 Airline flying Tuifly Jetairfly Jetairfly SAS Ryanair Ryanair Ryanair Charter Iberia Lufthansa Lufthansa Estonian Ryanair Remarks
Partly stopover flights
Stopped 2009, alternative e.g. HRG, ATY Larger A/C and lower frequency as suggested Parallel service to OVD assumed (78000 forecast)
Lower frequency, other competing UK routes
Late but finally achieved.

Suggested by Mkm in 2004 2004 2006 2007 Route Forecast Airline Actually Pax 2009 Pax [p.a.] suggested inaugurated [p.a.] Air Berlin Charter dba Lufthansa 2011 2011 2011 2011 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Airline flying Remarks
HAJ-CIA VXO-AGP 9.000 BRE-OPO 32.000 MUC-TRD 39.000
Germanwings will offer 976 seats on 4/7 frequency to FCO Ryanair will offer 756 seats on 2/7 frequency to ALC Ryanair will offer 756 seats on 2/7 frequency Lufthansa will offer 432 seats on weekends
38
39

Example: Scenario v.12 New LO flights to AMS, BRU, CDG; BZG WAW, shuttle BZG-POZ
40

Example: Scenario Timetable for new LO flights (2xEMB175), BZG to WAW (LO), shuttle BZG-POZ
41

Example: Winners and losers, demand effects across the air services at POZ
42

Example: New destination AMS, O&D and transfer passengers
43

Example: New destination ZRH, O&D and transfer passengers
44

Example: New destination DUS, O&D and transfer passengers
45

Example: Influence of new scenario for POZ on traffic in WAW
46

Example: Demand effects across the air services at WAW due to the POZ scenario
47

Example: Influence of new scenario for POZ on traffic in FRA
48

Example: Influence of new scenario for POZ on traffic in MUC
49

Example:
50

Example:
51
MKmetric Gesellschaft fr Systemplanung mbH www.mkm.de mandel@mkm.de
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Forecasting in Uncertainity MKmetric Presentation Cracow 20110309-Final

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Air Transport Market Forecasting in Dynamic Market Environment Air Transport Market Forecasting inwith Uncertain Data Dynamic

Market Environment with Uncertain Data

Dr. Benedikt Mandel

Dr. Benedikt Mandel

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

MKmetric Company profile

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

MKmetric Project References / Clients

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

Method Data background - IATA Strategy Symposium 2010

Method Data background Air transport market information

Classic air transport forecast

Ticket / Coupon data 50%

Ticket/Coupon, Booking data

* Global Distribution System, z.B. AMADEUS, GALILEO, SABRE, TRAVELPORT

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

Method Market dynamics and Data supply

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

Conventional / Traditional Modelling (Airport-Airport with fixed Isochrones)

Enriched point of view (System approach: Region-Region via multiple Routes)

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

Air transport model

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

Method MKmetric system approach APC Bielefeld - Hong Kong (business)

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

P(i) n x kin (P(i) n , x kin ) = x P(i) kin

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

P(i) n x kjn (P(i) n , x kjn ) = x P(i) kjn n

Change of passenger demand

-80% 200 -100

-80% 200 -100

Price variation per passenger in DM

total sum of utilities over all modes

total sum of utilities over all alternatives

total sum of utilities over all modes

total sum of utilities over all alternatives

Logical sequence but computed in reverse order

Statistics, observations, surveys, ...

Ex ante Assessment, evaluation, analyses of results

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

Method MKmetric system approach Iterative calibration process.

Model / Input adjustment Matrix Bounding

Base statistic evaluation Matrix evaluation

Mode choice assessment

Airport / Route choice Assessment Statistic evaluation

Link load assessment

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

x-via web Requirements of the tool usage.

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

SONAR - Scan Of New Air Routes Approach and focus.

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

Examples - MKmetric long term forecast

1st Polish Regional Airport Association Conference, Cracow 10-11.03.2011

Results network simulations for Airport Pozna (POZ)

= 61.208 pax = 55.853 pax (Aer Lingus 2x7, Ryanair 3x7)

Route POZ- DUB: Forecast from 2005 = Reality 2006!

Results network simulations for Airport Pozna (POZ)