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Tension is growing on the Pak-India borders what with India all set to launch another
atomic explosion to check the credibility of her nuclear device. The news is based on the
evidence gathered by the American spy satellite. The satellite recorded extraordinary
activities around Pokran in Rajistan where India detonated its first nuclear device on May
18,1974. Although, Indian officials have denied all these reports altogether and are called
them speculations. Same sort of statements were given by the Indian officials at the time
of first explosion. The US congress report revealed that India has the capability to
develop its nuclear arms within on time. And later reports also confirmed that India is
preparing for another atomic explosion, therefore, it is not a matter of speculations but a
matter of fact.

The South Asian region has the great geo-political importance for the world. The balance
of power in this region is always shaky. The two major regional countries, Pakistan and
India, have fought three wars and are struggling for power since the division of the Sub-
Continent. The mania for acquiring nuclear weapons is as old as the time Bhutto sought
funding for a plutonium reprocessing plant in 1965 followed by India's commissioning a
plutonium reprocessing plant in 1964. By the time this factor of nuclearisation became a
crucial necessity for both countries. This is why that both are reluctant to sign Non-
Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and stipulate the possession of nuclear weapons1 with their
security.

No'.v the question is that if India goes ahead for conducting its second nuclear explosion
then what should be Pakistan's reaction. Traditional rivals, Pakistan and India always
followed each other's military intentions for developing their army competency. If one
goes to acquire weapons from one country then the other will go to next country for the
counter-measures. Thus, the question of power has become vital for both and they always
tried to counter each other.

It is fact that both countries are now trying more for power arrct nuclear capabilities as
compared to past but since the start of

nuclear race no major armed conflict took place between them. But during the last decade
the tension between both sides reached at crisis level twice and that could have converted
in full-fledged war and two sides could use their all means to survive.

First, when India conducted it military exercise sin December 1986 -- January 1987 in the
name of "Brastack Exercises" were more serious and could be triggered the war between
the two*countrics. The exercise were one of the big best of its nature in South Asian
region involving about 10 division military forces. Pakistan alarmed by this situation and
thought the situation a great threat for the sovereignty of the country, developed its forces
along with the Indian borders. Later on, both moved so closer that a minor incident in
those prevailing circumstances could wage war between them. After long negotiations
both countries agreed to withdraw their forces from borders to their respective positions.
The crisis was the worst in relationship of both countries sine 1971.

Secondly the relation of both nations came at crisis level again when Pakistan begin it's
exercises "Zerb-e-Momin" in the early months of 1990. That again created the situation
that had brought the two sides on the edge of another arm conflict. Alarmed by that
dangerous turn in Indo-Pak relations the Bush administration launched its successful
diplomatic effects to calm down the both countries and stop the situation became
worsening.

The anxiety on both sides is content feature until the problem and issues like Kashmir
and Siachin should no be settled. The negotiations and -bilateral talks can abstain them
from an immediate war but have not long lasting effects in their respective stand.
Although, the question of following the Indian action is a crucial one for Pakistan. Doing
so, Pakistan would have to face a huge international pressure and could might face trade
sanctions too. But, not countering the action might generate more
complications for Pakistan. Obviously, it would mean to giver India , a free hand to enjoy
its nuclear programme. And secondly it would invoke strong reaction among the people
who relate the vital issue of National security with the nuclear weapons to deter their
traditional rival India.

In this context Islamabad should have a close look on two dimension: American attitude
towards ^Pakistan in past years and possible change in Indian behaviour if'BJP come into
power in forthcoming elections in India.

There are always ups and downs in the relations between Islamabad and Washington.
Americans always altered their policies towards Pakistan due to its changing geo-political
importance and

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Emporium Current Essays

regarding their interests in minds. As interests increased in the region they admired
Pakistan's policies and provide financial support to her. Pakistan had stretched her hand
for friendship towards America when she provided Air Basis to United States to make
operational its global containment policy against the Soviet Union. But Pakistan soon
found American's changing colour when Washington signed a Security Pact with
New Delhi in 1962 after the Sino-Indian war to help India against China in future.
Obviously that Pact provided the bases on India for another armed conflict between both.
The resentment among Pakistan's people grew when America stayed aloof in the war of
1971 and did not respond , favourable for Pakistan.
American always behave clearly and used Pakistan as a pup state on every front. United
States always adopted discriminatory strict policies towards the nuclear states by
amending Foreign Assistance Act for the countries to leave or cap their nuclear
capabilities twice. First she was entrapped by Glen Symington Amendment in 19 and
deprived from all the assistance from America, she was pendent on. But soon escaped
1979 due to the Russian invasion in Afghanistan. And secondly American assistance was
again suspended in 1990 under the Pressler Amendment when refused to issue a
certificate non-nuclear state to Pakistan keeping in mind that Russian forces had started
their withdrawal from

« Afghan soil. And lastly a narrow escape to be called terrorist state

due to which Pakistan would had to face trade embargo against her.

American legislation was not bad idea to discourage the

countries going for nuclear weapons/But due to its improper

application, especially in South Asian has became discriminatory

xand Pakistan have paid the price heavy.

The traditional rival of Pakistan, India have a Foreign

policy with objective to keep Pakistan weak, under pressure and

defenceless. The general elections of 1996 in India would be the real

.test for the future relations between Pakistan ancd.Inilfa, Indian

attitude .towards minorities and as well as for the Indian policies in

.... the South Asian region.

The rise of Hindu extremists in form of $Hiv SenHand , Bharti JantaParty (BJP) in past
few years, have eventually ; weekend the Congress I's position in the country. And it is
widely !

hoped that Hindu extremists will emerge as a strong wing in the

• country., Hindu extremists always' adopted a very sharp attitude *.,

towards the minorities. Especially, the Muslim of India always Jisuflcrcd due .to their
religions from the hands of the Hindus. y

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Destruction of Babri Mosque and in Hindu-Muslim riots in various citiev of India,

Muslims suffered heavy casualties and loss of properties. BJP have the intention to
change the pasture of so-called secularism to a pure Hindu state. Where the minorities
would have no place to.live with their religious entity. The Hindu extremists are also
biased towards the acquisition of atomic weapons to threat Pakistan due to its religious
posture.

Indian premier Gowda Deve is in .vulnerable position against the Hindu extremists and is
struggling to retain the premiership in harmony. This is physiological fact that popularity
rating in both Pakistan and India is related with the aggressiveness v against rival
country. More aggressive the pasture adopts by someone, the higher is his popularity
rating. Therefore, Gowda, a weak premier in the centre, can use an atomic explosion as
an election stunt to win the-sympathies and support of his public. Whatever the case may
be, nuclear weapons in the hands of Hindus would mean a constant threat for Pakistan's
security in future.

Therefore, the 19% elections should have grave effects on the Indian policies from so-
catted' secularism to Hindu fundamentalism, and on the Indian political dimensions in the
South Asian region, and if BJP or Shiv Sena will come into power in the centre in future
then they would certainly try to dictate Pakistan on their given directions due to their
military supremacy.

,, •••.*•;-- -".,'•' '

"Nations attend to their security in way that they think

best". Obviously, Pakistan's security and national interests have the

top priority in thc,agenda of every premier in the centre. Therefore,

~ Pakistan should .pursue the Indian action at any cost without taking

any outside; pressure because nothing is superior than our survival.