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Cautionary statement
This presentation has been prepared by Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited (Rio Tinto) and consisting of the slides for a presentation concerning Rio Tinto. By reviewing/attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions. Forward-looking statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this presentation, including, without limitation, those regarding Rio Tintos financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations (including development plans and objectives relating to Rio Tintos products, production forecasts and reserve and resource positions), are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Rio Tinto, or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forwardlooking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding Rio Tintos present and future business strategies and the environment in which Rio Tinto will operate in the future. Among the important factors that could cause Rio Tintos actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others, levels of actual production during any period, levels of demand and market prices, the ability to produce and transport products profitably, the impact of foreign currency exchange rates on market prices and operating costs, operational problems, political uncertainty and economic conditions in relevant areas of the world, the actions of competitors, activities by governmental authorities such as changes in taxation or regulation and such other risk factors identified in Rio Tinto's most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") or Form 6-Ks furnished to the SEC. Forward-looking statements should, therefore, be construed in light of such risk factors and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match or exceed its historical published earnings per share.
OECD financial fragility Loose monetary conditions - Quantitative Easing and potential unwinding Cost escalation and supply cycles
Modest US recovery while Eurozone and Japan still weak 65 Above 50 = Expansion 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 Jan-08 US Eurozone Japan
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
Spain
Italy
Below 50 = Contraction
4.0 May-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Jan-12 Jan-13 Apr-12 Feb-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Mar-12 Feb-13 Jul-12
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Expectations for a strong first half in China and moderation in the second half
A sharp increase in bank credit and bankers acceptances is supporting current pick up
2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 J-10 J-10 J-11 J-11 J-12 J-12 J-13 New Banker's Acceptance Bills New Trust and Entrusted Loans New Bank Loans
Inflation is benign but residential housing costs are a leading indicator of a pick-up in CPI
108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 J-10 J-11 CPI J-12 CPI Residence J-13
Inflation
Leading indicators have picked up pace; decline in flash February PMI likely due to CNY effects
60
RMB Billion
Land sales have increased sharply with the pick up in residential sales and prices
110
55
105
50 J-08 45 HSBC 40 Economic Climate Leading Index-RHS J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13
100
10% J10
95
D10
J11
D11
J12
D12
30% 50%
90
Strong growth in China alumina imports has been due to concerns over availability of imported bauxite
3500 China bauxite and alumina imports (expressed as Kt AL2O3 equivalent)
2000
1500
1000
500
Jan-2011
Jul-2011
Jan-2012
Jul-2012
Copper short term small surplus, but longer term supply response required in an increasingly challenged industry
LME stocks have been rising, particularly in Europe as warehouse owners attract material to earn rent
500,000 450,000 120,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 20,000 50,000 5 0 Jan 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Feb 12 Jan 13 Jul 12 Oct 12 May 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Mar 12 Apr 12 0 0 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 60,000 20 100,000 30 Highly Probable Projects 80,000 25 Base Case Production Capability Primary Demand 35 Possible Projects Probable Projects LME Copper inventories by location, t 140,000
Expectations of near term supply growth, but still a need for significant new supply in long term
40 Global copper production and primary demand Mt
40,000
15
10
Global
Alternative to blast furnace technology unlikely at long run HCC prices below $200/t based on consensus prices
250 HCC $/t FOB Australia
250
250
200
200
200
150
150
150
100
100
100
50
50
50
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0 DRI (Gas) + EAF with carbon DRI (Gas) + EAF without carbon
Source: Salva, GTIS, Global Coal Error bars are +/- 2 Stdevs
10
Indian exports continue to be constrained. We expect a return to market, at much lower levels
Annualised(Mt)
200 Westcoast 35.0% 40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
15.0%
Dec10
Sep11
Jun12
Mar13
Dec13
Sep14
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
0.0% Jan13
11
Steep iron ore cost curve provides scope for price fly-ups
2012 Industry cost curve
($/wmt CFR)
250
$/wmtCFR
200
FMGPilbara
Vale
BHPPilbara
150
RTIOassets
100
IOC
50
RT Pilbara
0 0 500 1,000
Cumulative capacity
1,500
2,000
2,500
Mtpa
Source: Rio Tinto Note: Includes shipping and sustaining capital expenditure and is adjusted for inflation and FX
12
Global peaks: finished steel per capita intensities ASEAN, Brazil, India and Africa unlikely to peak <2040
Kg per person
1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Singapore Taiwan Hong Kong Japan Sweden USA Belgium-Luxembourg Germany Norway Canada Italy Spain South Korea
Forecast
China
India Size = population at peak India and ASEAN economies expected to increase in steel intensity progressively but not peak before 2040.
Denmark Austria Finland Greece Switzerland UK France Portugal Ireland Netherlands Australia
13
Harvester
>100 HP
Combined harvester
21.2Mt 3.3%
Appendix
15
Top down and bottom up approach leads to consistent stories across commodities demand
Intensity factors
Exports
Power Generation Agriculture Mining Construction New demand required to satisfy production
16
While HP-driven components are concentrated in the engine and transmission, weight-driven components are found throughout the tractor - U.S. Advanced Automotive expert
Source: Expert surveys, Rio Tinto analysis