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Africa Research Bulletin

Political Social and Cultural Series


Volume 49 Number 11 November 1st30th 2012
As the country awaits the announcement of nal results, the Secretary-General calls on Sierra Leones political leaders, parties and their supporters to accept the will of the people and to put their country above any other interests so as not to jeopardise Sierra Leones hard-won peace, it added. Mr. Ban also urged all sides to work together and uphold their commitment to the people of Sierra Leone to bolster stability and unity. The elections were the countrys third since the end of its civil war, and the second since the withdrawal of the peacekeeping operation known as the UN Mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL) in December 2005. The vote is seen as an indicator of progress towards recovery. (UN News Service 18/11) PANA(17/11) reported voters started queuing early, eager to prove to the world that democracy had come to stay in the country, and that they were ready to consolidate the peace that had gradually returned since the end of the war in 2002. Incumbent President Ernest Bai Koroma, who was seeking another ve-year mandate, faced eight opposition candidates, the most prominent of whom was Julius Bio, a retired army general who once briey served as the countrys head of state. To win outright and avoid a runoff, a candidate had to garner 55% of the votes. Though the election campaign had been largely devoid of violence, the authorities took no chances, as security was tightened across the country of 6m people. The sub-regional bloc, ECOWAS, which played the lead role in restoring peace to the country, sent 150 observers to monitor the election, headed by former Ghanaian president John Kufuor.

SIERRA LEONE
High Poll Turnout The election is seen as a test of stability; a consolidation of the peace established after the brutal civil war.
The United Nations (UN) SecretaryGeneral Ban Ki-moon on November 18th congratulated the people of Sierra Leone for the peaceful and orderly elections held on November 17th, the rst one run entirely by the government since the end of the West African nations brutal civil war 10 years ago, in which around 50,000 people died. The voter turnout was reportedly high for the four elections presidential, parliamentary, local council and mayoral, the results of which would not be known for about 10 days. The high voter turnout and the remarkable calm displayed by the countrys citizens as they cast their votes are a clear manifestation of their desire for peace, democracy and development, said a statement issued by Mr. Bans spokesperson.
125 mi 125 km Kabala

This issue pp. 19475510


Egypt Mursis New Powers Jihadi Organisations 19482 19490

Gaza Israel Mediation 19506 DR Congo M23 Takes Goma Kenya Policemen Massacred Sudan Sabotage Plot Foiled Israel Bombs Arms Factory Tunisia Death of Hunger Strikers 19505 19502 19507 19492 19487

Contents
Continental Alignments 19477 Internal Developments 19479 National Security Military Overseas Relations Social and Cultural Rates Index 19486 19504 19505 19508 19509 19510

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19476 Africa Research Bulletin

In its preliminary report on November 19th, ECOWAS hailed the elections as being free, fair and credible: The vast majority of the qualied Sierra Leonean population, who wished to do so, were provided the required freedom and space to exercise their constitutional rights to vote or to be voted for. The mission said, however, that there were a few isolated incidents that could have marred the smooth and peaceful conduct of the polls. (PANA, 17,19/11) A coalition of non-governmental organisations, National Election Watch, said the voting went well, with some delays in opening polling stations. (BBC News
Online 17/11)

Main Presidential Candidates


Ernest Bai Koroma: Aged 59, Koroma is a Temne, one of the two largest ethnic groups in Sierra Leone, born in northern Makeni in 1953. After graduating he taught briey before going into the insurance business. Having joined the APC as a student in 1974, Koroma was elected its leader in the run up to the 2002 presidential elections, which he lost against outgoing President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah. His running mate is vice-president Samuel Sam-Sumana. Julius Maada Bio: Bio was born in 1964 in the Bonthe District. He is an ethnic Mende. He joined the army, graduating in 1987 and later served in the west African bloc ECOWAS Peacekeeping Force (ECOMOG) in neighbouring Liberia. After the 1992 coup he served as Minister of Information and Broadcasting. Following the transition to democracy in 1996 he left the country and earned a masters degree from the School of International Service at the American University in Washington in the United States. Bios running mate is Dr Kadi Sesay, a university lecturer and rights campaigner. ( AFP 15/11 2012)

expected to add 21% growth in 2012 to its US$2.2bn gross domestic product, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates. If well-managed, these resources could change the fortunes of a nation which has one of Africas lowest life expectancies at 47 years, according to the World Bank, and highest rates of maternal mortality. Youth unemployment levels hover at 60%. ( AFP 17/11 2012) Koroma Wins As the country awaited the results, on November 19th, Julius Bio complained that his party had evidence of poll fraud. There (is) evidence of rampant ballot stufng in several polling centres, especially in the northern region, Kono and Freetown with full complicity of NEC (National Electoral Commission) staff, Bio said in a press statement. Following the complaints, the head of the election commission, Christiana Thorpe, said around 10% of the votes from the tightly contested elections had been set aside because of alleged fraud. She said the votes might have to be recounted following the oppositions allegations. Although the results had been expected by November 24th, public anxiety about the delay started to grow. The governments Ofce of National Security, along with the UK and US embassies, appealed to people to stay calm while the election commission dealt with the complaints. Out of the 9,493 polling stations, 90% of polling station results have been processed, Ms Thorpe said in a statement. The remaining 10% of results have been quarantined and may require opening of [the] affected ballot boxes and a recount of the ballot papers. On November 23rd, the NEC announced that President Ernest Bai Koroma had won the presidential election outright, receiving almost 59% of the votes cast. Julius Maada Bio took 38% of the ballots, with an average turnout of 87.3%. This will be Koromas second and nal term in ofce. His supporters ooded the streets of the capital as news of his comfortable win became known. (BBC
News Online 22,23/11)

Nine parties contested the presidential election, but the biggest test for the country would be for one of the two main parties that have moved in and out of power since independence from Britain in 1967 to accept defeat. Richard Howitt, head of a European Union (EU) observer mission, urged a speedy announcement of results to avoid potential violence. At this stage the integrity (of the count) appears to be very high, he told AFP. A lot of people have said they are very concerned about reactions as results become known and that could be a ashpoint in terms of potential conict between rival groups of supporters. I am concerned an undue delay in results being announced could risk conict in a society where rumour plays a big role. There are some risks at the moment for Sierra Leone.

The incoming government will be tasked with stewardship of a lucrative windfall from a boom in the countrys mining industry, notably iron-ore, and possible oil production. Though still one of the worlds poorest countries, Sierra Leone is rich in mineral resources and massive iron-ore stores are

Sierra Leone Presidential Election National Results


After counting results from 97.6% (9,269) of all polling stations, excluding those that were invalidated, the average national turnout was 87.3%. Total number of valid votes: 2,350,626 Total number of invalid votes: 108,898 (4.7%)

Candidate Ernest Bai Koroma Joshua Albert Carew Gibrilla Kamara Kandeh Baba Conteh Charles Francis Margai Eldred Collins Julius Maada Bio Mohamed Bangura James Obai Fullah

Party All Peoples Congress (APC) Citizens Democratic Party (CDP) Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Peoples Liberation Party (PLP) Peoples Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC) Revolutionary United Front Party(RUFP) Sierra Leone Peoples Party (SLPP) United Democratic Movement (UDM) United National Peoples Party (UNPP)

Votes 1,314,881 22,863 8,273 6,144 28,944 12,993 837,517 5,069 5,044

Percentage 58.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.6% 37.4% 0.2% 0.2%

In response, Bio denounced the election as riddled with fraud. The process was fraudulent and the results do not reect the will of Sierra Leoneans, he said.
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The party has raised concerns about electoral irregularities including faked and unstamped reconciliation and results forms, pre-marked ballot papers, ballot stufng and over-voting in Kono (diamond-rich east), the western area and the northern province.

These and many more instances of malpractice undermines the credibility of the results, he added. Bio did not indicate what his next move would be in challenging the results but urged his supporters to remain calm and law abiding.

International observers widely praised the poll as free, peaceful and wellconducted. They did, however, note some shortcomings in the voting process and said that Koroma enjoyed an unequal playing eld given that he dominated media coverage and had used state resources for campaigning. ( AFP
24/11 2012)

Continental Alignments
CONFERENCES AND COMMISSIONS
AFRICAN UNION
Mali Readmitted A national body to open talks with armed groups must be set up.
The African Union has readmitted Mali, after suspending it from the pan-African bloc following a March coup by army ofcers (p. 19183), and has backed plans for the authorities to recapture the north from radical Islamists (see p. 19496). On October 25th the AU also endorsed a plan urging the restoration of state authority of the northern part of the country. The plan, which calls for free elections in Mali early in 2013, is to be presented to the United Nations (UN) Security Council for endorsement. During a meeting in Bamako to devise a strategy to defeat rebels in the north, attended by the UN, the AU, Mali and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the AU called for Malis authorities to set up a national body to open talks with any armed groups in the north willing to engage in dialogue to nd the political solution to the crisis. On October 25th the AU named former Burundi president Pierre Buyoya as its High Representative for Mali and the Sahel. The two-time president will work with an AU mission soon to open in Bamako. ( AFP, Addis Ababa 25/10) New Representative for Somalia: The AU named Mahamat Saleh Annadif of Chad as the new special representative for Somalia, shifting Boubacar Gaoussou Diarra of Mali to the Great Lakes region. As part of his mission, Annadif will head the 17,000-strong AU Mission (Amisom). Annadif is a former Chadian presidential chief of staff and foreign minister,
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who stepped down earlier in 2012 after corruption allegations, but was later cleared of the charges. ( AFP, Addis
Ababa 2/11)

IN BRIEF
EAC: The East African Communitys long search for the ultimate goal of political Federation is starting to take shape. Member States have broken new grounds with a proposal by a team of experts to adopt a structure similar to the Tanzanian model (Tanganyika/Zanzibar) headed by a single president, ruling for a year. (The Standard, Nairobi 13/11)

nity of West African States (ECOWAS), and 75,000 CFA francs and a ve-day journey through Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria will get them to the coastal town of Calabar on the border of Cameroon. There, most of them, being unable to afford a visa, will go underground. Many of the transport companies have a web of contacts highly experienced in getting people across borders, stretching as far as Kinshasa. The journey to Johannesburg is usually interrupted at stop-off points where travellers stay from a few days to a few years while they save the money to continue. Every year, 25,000 West Africans almost all mentry their luck on the overland route to South Africa. So do 20,000 Ethiopians and Somalis and hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans and Mozambicans. For many, the journey stops in Gabon, Angola or Equatorial Guinea, which have become so rich from oil. (Le Monde Diplomatique, November)

POLITICAL RELATIONS
AFRICA
Southerly Migration Only 5% of African migrants go to the West, 95% migrate within Africa.
Thousands of illegal immigrants from the north of sub-Saharan Africa come to Messina, a small South African town near the border with Zimbabwe, overland every year. Some take a plane from Senegal to Democratic Republic of Congo, another to Lubumbashi, and then wander around Zambia and Zimbabwe for a month. Zimbabwean people smugglers charge a few hundred rand to cut through three barbed-wire fences and get them across the Limpopo. In the past, migrants looked to Europe. But emigration is now economic rather than cultural. Immigration requirements in Europe have become tougher and Moroccans, Kenyans and Angolans now look towards the emerging economies, especially South Africa, the centre of future growth. Some migrants, too poor to y, travel overland. There are dozens of transport companies ready to help. A passport and a vaccination certicate are all Ivoirians need to travel in the Economic CommuB

REFUGEES
Burundi More than a thousand return home almost every day.
Close to 8,000 former refugees returned from Mtabila refugee camp in Tanzania in the rst two weeks of November, on convoys organized by UNHCR, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and other partners. They were taking advantage of a last opportunity for assistance to make the journey, having lost their refugee status in Tanzania. A further 2,715 are being allowed to remain in the country as refugees. The decision followed interviews with some 40,000 Burundian refugees conducted by panels made up of UNHCR staff and Tanzanian government ofcials over 11 months, giving consideration to developments in Burundi since they ed nearly 20 years ago. All returnees are registered by UNHCR and receive a months food ration as well as a small cash grant. They also receive a number of useful household items, such as sleeping mats, mosquito nets, buckets, jerry cans, some clothing and sanitary
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materials, and begin the process of getting a vital government ID card.


(UNHCR 14/11)

Ethiopia
Massive refugee camps, the size of cities, do untold environmental damage. Ethiopians would like to continue to be good Samaritans to the hundreds of thousands seeking refuge from drought and conict in neighbouring Somalia, but massive camps in fragile environments have done irreversible damage, turning wooded areas into barren land. The situation has sparked concern among both the government and the people sharing space with the refugees. Ethiopias Somali region is now home to the worlds second-largest refugee complex, Dollo Ado, and it saw the worlds largest inux of Somali refugees in 2012. Melkadida, a rural settlement in southern Ethiopia, about 75km from Somalia and from Dollo Ado, offers a vivid illustration of the problems. Until 2011, Melkadidas 20,000-odd residents led lives largely untouched by development, with few shops and no school or clinic. Then drought struck the Horn of Africa in 2011, driving more than 40,000 Somali refugees into their kebele, or neighbourhood. Their arrival, and the subsequent attention of the international aid community, brought positive developments, including a school and medical facilities. But it also did considerable harm, destroying the environment and introducing a culture of consumerism and waste. Somalis continue to arrive in Dollo Ado, driven by poor rains and the threat of the insurgent group al Shabaab at home. Their numbers have fallen from the peak 2,000 per day in July 2011 to an average of 30 per day. By October 2012, more than 25,000 Somalis had ed to Ethiopia making it the largest recipient of Somali refugees in the region so far, according to UNHCR. There are ve camps already full and a sixth camp is being planned. (UN
humanitarian analysis and news service, IRIN 12/11)

The disputed border remains a major sticking point in the talks, as violence has erupted sporadically in several ashpoint states. Both sides accuse the other of supporting rebel groups. The AU has called on Sudan to negotiate with one of the principle rebel groups, the Southern Peoples Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), and condemned Khartoum for not moving ahead with peace talks. ( AFP, Addis
Ababa 24/10)

Intractable conicts surfaced during the AUPSC examination of the recent Addis Ababa agreement (p. 19443) and observers see little scope for progress, warned The Citizen (Khartoum). Observers warned that this lack of agreement could derail the recent agreements. The outstanding issues will now be in the hands of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which sources say will likely adopt the solution proposed by the AU. Others, however, warn that any solution may be stalled by divisions within the UN. (The Citizen,
Khartoum, 8/11)

Khartoum insists that the SPLA-N be disarmed before normalising relations. However, that is not in Jubas gift: SPLA-N has its own independent structure and programme. Moreover, as the SPLA-N and its Darfur and other allies in the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) now control at least half of the Sudanese side of the border, any attempt by Juba or Khartoum to demilitarise it would mean little. Again, Juba complains of international double standards and argues that it is paying the price of failed CPA implementation the international failure to democratise Sudan, as the CPA promised. (Africa Condential
16/11)

By November 26th, the two presidents having engaged in two days of extensive discussions, the crisis showed signs of easing. It was agreed to speed up dialogue on the issue of Abyei in order to reach a deal that brings stability and security to the region. (Suna news agency
website, Khartoum 26/11)

SOUTH SUDAN SUDAN


Agreement Under Threat? A seemingly intractable argument is causing concern.
The African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) gave Sudan and South Sudan six weeks to reach a deal on the ashpoint state Abyei, ofcials said on October 24th.
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WESTERN SAHARA
UN Envoys Tour His mission to facilitate negotiations made no progress.
United Nations envoy Christopher Ross on November 15th wrapped up his month-long regional tour aimed at rekindling stalled Western Sahara peace talks. Ross visited Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, France and Spain to evaluate ve
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years of negotiations, examine causes of failure to make progress and look ahead to see how they can change. His purpose was to amend the approach of negotiations in order to achieve something tangible toward the desired goal, which is self-determination of the Sahrawi people. Ross said he backed a solution that would allow for the building of a unied Maghreb and enhancing security and stability in the Maghreb and the Sahel. In a region in transition, a conict such as the one in the Western Sahara cannot be allowed to stand still, he said, urging the parties to move swiftly into serious negotiations. Moroccan King Mohammed VI reiterated the kingdoms commitment to nding a solution to the conict over Western Sahara as part of Moroccos proposal for general autonomy, according to MAP. A few days after the meeting, Mohammed VI said in a speech to mark the 37th anniversary of the Green March that annexed Western Sahara, that the autonomy plan was consistent with international legitimacy and would grant all the regions populations extensive administration of their local affairs. He added, Morocco conrms its keen desire to proceed with the negotiations on the basis of the criteria and objectives dened by the Security Council, and which have been conrmed to me by His Excellency Mr. Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary-General. Ross spent three days in Laayoune (or El Ayoun), the main city in Western Sahara, where he met with members of pro-Moroccan groups as well as proPolisario Front associations, the local governor and tribal leaders, AFP reported. (Magharebia.com 15/11) Sahrawi citizens, eager to assert their right to free expression and to independence, the Polisario Front reported, clashed with Moroccan police in Laayoune during Rosss visit. In May (p. 19263), Morocco demanded Rosss replacement as envoy, accusing him of being unbalanced and biased but Ban Ki-moon refused, and UN ofcials in turn accused Morocco of seeking to undermine the work of the peacekeeping mission. The Polisario Front, supported by neighbouring Algeria, controls a small part of the desert interior and has bases over the border around Tindouf. The UN brokered the 1991 ceasere but a settlement of the conict remains elusive.

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NURSO) has also been in place since 1991. The envoy said the current status quo is threatened by developments in West Africas Sahel region, which has seen the growing presence of Islamist extremists and militants, including a branch of Al-Qaeda. Ross said Spanish ofcials were keen to contribute to the mediation efforts and he would also make stops in Paris, Washington D.C., London and Moscow where he plans to address the issue with his counterparts in those Western capitals before returning to North Africa.
(UN News Service 13/11)

fundamentalists, Al Shabaab, which Eritrea has been accused of backing. (PANA, Nairobi 29/10) Rwanda, Peace Award: Rwandan President Paul Kagame was voted African Peace Personality, winning the 2012 award after an online vote by African students/youth across the continent. Kagame was shortlisted for the prestigious award alongside President, Ernest Bai Koroma of Sierra Leone, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia, and, former president of Nigeria, Olesugun Obasanjo. Kagame was recognized for his ingenuity and style of leadership to unite the people of Rwanda and seek peaceful means to stabilise the country after the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi. (The New Times, Kigali 30/10) South Sudan Uganda: Tension is mounting at the Elegu border post in Atiak sub-county [northern Uganda] after authorities in South Sudan ordered a stop to developments, claiming that the area belongs to their country. The South Sudanese claim that the construction of a border market and other permanent structures on their land is a breach of bilateral understanding between the two countries. The border currently boasts a high-level of trade between the two countries. (Daily Monitor website, Kampala 23/11)

IN BRIEF
Morocco has proposed broad autonomy for the region under its sovereignty but Polisario rejects the plan and insists on what it says is the right of the Sahrawi people to self-determination through a referendum. ( AFP, Algiers 2/11) The UN has been involved in mediation efforts to nd a settlement in Western Sahara since 1976. A UN peacekeeping force, known as the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MIEritrea Kenya: Eritrean President Isaias Aferwerki has asked Kenya to lift a visa referral demand slapped on its nationals after the expiry of a visa abolition agreement between the two countries. Eritrean truck drivers and travellers are among those affected by the agreement, with at least 300 truck drivers now stranded on the Ugandan side of the common border. Kenya has been acting tough on the security front after a series of attacks by the Somali

Internal Developments
GOVERNMENT APPOINTMENTS
^ COTE DIVOIRE
Government Dissolved The move reects differences over a draft marriage law.
President Alassane Ouattara on November 14th dissolved the government formed in March and charged with reviving the country after the political and military crisis of 20102011, the presidency said. The head of the presidents ofce, Amadou Gon Coulibaly, later explained at a press conference that the dissolution was the consequence of growing differences among the governing parties Ouattaras RDR, former president Henri Konan Bedies PDCI and the small UDPCI party. PDCI and UDPCI parliamentary groups voted against a draft marriage law submitted by the government when it was examined by a parliament committee on November 13th, said OuattA
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maintains a powerful presence, especially on security matters. ( AFP 14,21/


11 2012)

aras chief of staff. The contentious text gives both a man and woman equal footing in a marriage. This is a problem as it affects the solidarity expected from a government coalition, he added. The outgoing government, formed on March 13th, was led by prime minister Jeannot Kouadio Ahoussou (PCDI) who also served as Justice Minister. Coulibaly said Ouattara had made contacts with the leaders of the parties that so far backed the government to form a new administration, but did not give a date when a new cabinet would be presented. On November 21st former Foreign Minister Daniel Kablan Duncan was appointed Prime Minister. The 69-year-old is from the PCDI party. He is a trained economist who already served as prime minister under Konan Bedie between 1993 and 1999. Observers say the former premier, Ahoussou, had failed to make his mark on the political scene and was overshadowed by a powerful president, autonomous ministers and Guillaume Soro, his predecessor and ex-rebel chief who today heads the national assembly and
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Duncans government was published by the online website of the governmentowned newspaper, Fraternit Matin, on e November 22nd as follows:
President of the Republic, Minister of Defence: Alassane Ouattara Prime Minister, Minister of the Economy and Finance: Daniel Kablan Duncan Ministers of State Interior and Security: Hamed Bakayoko Foreign Affairs: Charles Kof Diby Planning and Development: Albert Mabri Toikeusse Employment, Social Affairs and Professional Training: Moussa Dosso Ministers Guardian of the Seals, Justice, Human Rights and Public Liberties: Gnnma e e Mamadou Coulibaly In the Prime Ministers ofce, in charge of Economy and Finance: Nial Kaba e African Integration and Ivorians Abroad: Ally Coulibaly Oil, Mines and Energy: Adama Toungara Environment, Town Cleansing and Sustainable Development: Rmy Allah e Kouadio Economic Infrastructure: Patrick Achi Public Health and Administrative Reform: Konan Gnamien National Education and Technical Instruction: Mme Kandia Kamissoko Camara Trade, Industry and the Promotion of SMEs: Jean-Louis Billon Higher Education and Scientic Research: Ibrahima Ciss Bacongo e Transport: Gaoussou Tour e

19480 Africa Research Bulletin


Animal and Fishing Resources: Kobenan Kouassi Adjoumani Health and the Fight Against AIDS: Mme Raymonde Goudou Cofe Agriculture: Mamadou Sangafowa Coulibaly Construction, Housing, Town Planning Development: Mamadou Sanogo Industry: Jean-Claude Brou Solidarity, the Family, Women and Children: Anne Dsire Ouloto e e Culture and Francophonie: Maurice Bandaman Posts, ICT, government spokesman: Bruno Nabagn Kon e e Water and Forests: Mathieu Babaud Darret Communications, deputy government spokesperson: Mme Affoussiata Bamba Lamine Tourism: Roger Kakou Promotion of Youth, Sports and Leisure: Alain Michel Lobognon Deputy Minister in the Presidents ofce, in charge of Defence: Paul Kof Kof Secretary General of the Presidents Ofce: Amadou Gon Coulibaly

Internal Developments

Meanwhile, Hamat Bah, the leader of the opposition National Reconciliation Party (NRP), has called on Nigerian President, Goodluck Jonathan, to step in and help Gambia start national dialogue. Mr. Bahs call came on the heels of the release of 27 prisoners by President Yahya Jammeh which he said should be the beginning of a genuine national reconciliation programme. According to the opposition leader, such a programme should revolve around a national dialogue across the board involving politicians, civil society groups, professional bodies, among others. Other political observers have also pointed out the need for dialogue between the Gambian government and the opposition. (PANA, Dakar 5/11) The government list is now as follows:
President: Sheikh Alhaji Capt Yahya A. J. J. Jammeh Vice-President: Isatou Njie-Saidy Ministers Agriculture: Solomon Owens Basic and Secondary Education: Fatou Lamin Faye Finance and Economic Affairs: Abdou Kolley Fisheries and Water Resources: Mass Axi Gaye Foreign Affairs, International Cooperation and Gambians Abroad: Susan Waffa-Ogoo Forestry and the Environment: Fatou Ndeye Gaye Health and Social Welfare: Fatim Badjie Higher Education, Research, Science and Technology: Momodou Tangara Information and Communications: Bala Garba Jahumpa Interior: Ousman Sonko Justice and Attorney-General: Lamin A.M. S. Jobarteh Petroleum: Teneng Mba Jaiteh Presidential Affairs and National Assembly Matters, Secretary-General and Head of the Civil Service: Njogou Lamin Bah Tourism and Culture: Fatou Mass Jobe-Njie Womens Affairs: Isatou Njie Saidy Works, Construction and Infrastructure: Francis Liti Mboge Youth and Sports: Alieu K. Jammeh

two-thirds of the assemblys 200 members attended the session on October 31st, and after the vote the session abruptly adjourned for prayers. The head of Congress and Libyas interim leader, Mohammed Magarief, said he had been advised by security guards to end the session early. About 100 protesters stood outside the Congress building, but there was no repeat of earlier disturbances. The new government has representatives from the two biggest blocs in the Congress the Alliance of National Forces, led by liberal former Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril, and the Muslim Brotherhoods Justice and Construction Party. Mr Zidane said he had tried to strike a balance between Libyas different regions in making the appointments. According to his list, the defence and interior ministries would be headed by ministers from the eastern city of Benghazi, considered to be the cradle of the 2011 revolution that ended Mouammar Gaddafys rule. Two women are also among the ministers proposed by Zidane. (BBC News
Online 31/10)

(www.fratmat.info/ 22/11)

THE GAMBIA
Series of Changes President Jammeh makes several appointments within a month, including a female Foreign Minister.
President Yahya Jammeh swore into ofce two new cabinet ministers on November 6th. Mass Axi Gaye, formerly ambassador to Senegal, was appointed the Fisheries and Water Resources Minister. Susan WaffaOgoo, who until recently was Gambias Permanent Representative to the United Nations, was sworn in as the new Minister of Foreign Affairs and Gambians in the Diaspora. AFP added that Waffa-Ogoo is the rst woman to hold the post during Jammehs 18-year rule. She replaces Momodou Tangara, who has been appointed Minister of Higher Education, Research, Science and Technology, a post that had been vacant since September. Wafa-Ogoo served as Tourism and Culture Minister from 2005 to 2008 and was also briey Gambias high commissioner to India. Jammeh often shakes up his cabinet, in what observers have described as a sign of paranoia, and runs several key ministries himself. PANA reported on November 14th that Bala Garba Jahumpa had been appointed Minister of Information and Communication Infrastructure with effect from the 12th. He was previously ambassador to Spain. The country had been without an Information Minister since the dissolution of the last cabinet after the 2011 presidential election. (PANA, 6,14/11;

AFP (31/10) said that the new government faces many challenges in a country still awash with arms and struggling for reconciliation more than a year after the end of the armed uprising. Its chief task is organising fresh elections within 12 months on the basis of a new constitution. Most of the new cabinet was sworn in on November 14th at the National Assembly, although eight contested nominees were absent. The new cabinet only included 23 of the 31 nominated ministers. Eight others were not approved and four were rejected by Libyas anti-corruption body. The Integrity and Patriotism Commission decided against candidates for the Interior Ministry, the Ministry of Electricity, the Ministry of Higher Education and the Ministry for Relations with the GNC. Members of Congress had reservations on the nominees for the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Social Affairs, the Ministry of Religious Affairs and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
(Magharebia.com 16/11; AFP 31/10)

(gambia.gov.gm)

LIBYA
Cabinet Approved Will the new team endure and meet the multiple and complex challenges it faces?
Libyas General National Congress approved a new government led by Prime Minister Ali Zidane on October 30th. The vote came a day after protesters, unhappy at the make-up of the proposed cabinet, disrupted proceedings. Zidanes list includes a mixture of liberal gures and Islamists as he tries to build a coalition acceptable to all parties. Only
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The new government is as follows:


Prime Minister: Ali Zidane Deputy Prime Ministers Al-Sidiq Abd-al-Karim Abd-al-Rahman Karim Awad Ibrik al-Baasi Abd-al-Salam Muhammad al-Mahdi al-Qadi Ministers

AFP 2/11 2012)

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Justice: Salah Bashir Abash Mirghani International Cooperation: Muhammad Amuhammad Abd-al-Aziz Martyrs and Missing People: Sami Mustafa Al-Saidi Higher Education: Abd-al-Salam Bashir al-Duwaibi Local Administration: Abu-Bakr al-Hadi Muhammad Social Affairs: Kamilah Khamis Abdallah al-Muzaini Communications: Usamah Abd-al-Rauf Sayala Defence: Muhammad Mahmud Musa al-Barghathi Youth and Sports: Abdallah Muhammad Ghuaylah Interior: Ashur Sulayman Salih Shawayl Education: Muhammad Hasan Abu-Bakr Agriculture: Ahmad Ayad Ali al-Aru Foreign Affairs: Ali Sulayman al-Ugali Finance: Qilani Abd-al-Karim Kilani Industry: Sulayman Ali Al-Latif al-Fituri Tourism: Akram Abd-al-Salam Bash Imam Labour and Rehabilitation: Muhammad alFituri Ahmad Suwalim Transport: Abd-al-Qadir Muhammad Ahmad al-Ayib Economy: Mustafa Muhammad Abu-Funas Oil: Abd-al-Bari Ali al-Hadi al-Arusi Health: Nur-al-Din Daghman Electricity: Ali Muhammad Amhariq Water Resources: Al-Hadi Sulayman Hanshi Religious Endowments and Islamic Affairs: Abd-al-Salam Muhammad Abu-Sad Housing and Utilities: Ali Hasan al-Sharif Planning: Mahdi al-Tahir Ugniyah Culture: Habib Muhammad Amin Ministers of State General National Congress affairs: Muiz Fathi al-Khawjah Affairs of the Wounded: Ramadan Ali Mansur Zarmuh

Africa Research Bulletin 19481

Zidane said Libya would maintain strong links with Africa, and that its role in the continent would now be guided by new principles based on mutual respect, non-interference in the affairs of other countries and cooperation with the African Union (AU).
(PANA, Tripoli 16/11)

Thioune, a prominent leader of the Mouride brotherhood, one of four Su brotherhoods followed in the 95% Muslim nation, had been arrested on April 23rd after the death of two of his disciples during a brawl at his house the previous evening. The education, trade, infrastructure, sports and other portfolios were also shufed. Among the new arrivals is journalist and writer Abdou Latif Coulibaly, who will head up a new Ministry for the Promotion of Good Governance and be a government spokesman. Sports Minister El Hadji Malick Gakou was replaced days after national football coach Joseph Koto was sacked over a violence-tainted 2013 Africa Cup of Nations qualier against C^te dIvoire o earlier in October. Senegal was formally disqualied from the 2013 Nations Cup after Ivorian players and fans were subjected to a hail of stones, bottles and chairs with res lit in the stands and recrackers thrown. World music icon Youssou Ndour sees the culture brief removed from his culture and tourism portfolio, one of several such tweaks which sees the cabinet expand from 25 ministers to 30. The reshufe comes seven months after Sall named Abdoul Mbaye as Prime Minister. The new government list as published on the ofcial government website is as follows:

(WAL news agency, Tripoli 30/10)

Priorities Security, national reconstruction, economic development and health are the main priorities of the new government, said Ali Zidane. The Prime Minister also promised to work toward reconciling Libyans by preserving justice and forgiveness, without neglecting the protection of individual rights. In this regard, he called on all national forces, religious leaders, elders and civil society organisations to participate actively and effectively in the achievement of national reconciliation. On foreign policy, he reiterated the commitment of his government to building strong and successful relationships with sisterly and friendly countries. These relationships, he said, will be based on mutual respect and cooperation to strengthen peace and international security, while preserving the Islamic, Arab and African identity of Libya. He said Libya would also comply with the United Nations Treaties and all international agreements and conventions.
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Federalist Demonstrations: Hundreds of backers of federalism gathered in Benghazi on November 2nd calling for autonomy for the oil-rich east. More than 1,000 demonstrators, demanding greater autonomy for the Cyrenaica region, gathered outside the Tibesti Hotel after weekly Muslim prayers, an AFP journalist at the scene said. Members of the movement would like to see Benghazi become the economic capital of Libya, with key institutions such as the central bank and the ministries of oil and nance based in the city. The demonstrators also circulated a statement calling for a return to the 1951 constitution and expressing support for the new government of Prime Minister Ali Zidane. Libya was a federal union from 1951 to 1963 under King Idris I, which divided the country into three administrative states, Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan. Cyrenaica, which runs from the Mediterranean coast south to Chad, comprises roughly half of the countrys territory and holds about three-quarters of Libyas vast oil reserves. Federalism backers feel the region was neglected by Gaddafys regime. ( AFP
2/11 2012) p. 19445B Prime Minister removed

Nigeria

SENEGAL
Government Reshufe Ministers perceived not to performed well are dropped.
have

According to a decree published on October 29th, President Macky Sall dismissed his foreign and interior ministers in a major government reshufe, just days after admitting errors in managing a violent protest against the detention of a religious leader. Foreign Minister Alioune Badara Cisse leaves the government and is replaced by Mankeur Ndiaye, formerly Senegals ambassador to France. Retired army General Pathe Seck was named as Interior Minister, replacing Mbaye Ndiaye who came under heavy criticism over the violent protests by hordes of devout disciples of Cheikh Bethio Thioune at the end of October.
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Minor Cabinet Change: President Goodluck Jonathan, on October 31st, effected a minor cabinet reshufe with the Minister of State for Niger Delta Affairs, Hajia Zainab Kuchi, swapping places with the Minister of State in the Ministry of Power, Mr. Darius Dickson Ishaku. The move was reportedly because the President was dissatised with Ishakus performance. He had taken over running the Power Ministry when the substantive Minister, Barth Nnaji, resigned in August over alleged conicts of interest, but the tempo of reform in the power sector and supply of electricity has stalled since then. (PANA, Abuja 31/10) Olusola Saraki Dies: The politician, 79, who served as leader of the Senate from 197983, died in Lagos on November 14th after a brief illness. President Jonathan described Saraki as a political colossus who had worked with political sagacity, dedication and wholesome commitment to the service of his people as he extended his condolences to his family. (PANA, Lagos 14/11)

19482 Africa Research Bulletin


President: Macky Sall Prime Minister: Abdoul Mbaye Ministers Agriculture and Rural Equipment: Abdoulaye Balde Animal Husbandry: Aminata Mbengue Ndiaye Communication, Telecommunications and the Digital Economy: Cheikh Mamadou Abiboulaye Dieye Civil Service, Labour and Relations with Institutions: Mansour Sy Culture: Abdoul Aziz Mbaye Defence: Augustin Tine Ecology and Sustainable Development: Ali Haidar Economy and Finance: Amadou Kane Education: Serigne Mbaye Thiam Energy and Mining: Aly Ngouille Ndiaye Fisheries and Maritime Affairs: Pape Diouf Foreign Affairs and Senegalese Abroad: Mankeur Ndiaye Health and Social Action: Eva Marie Coll Seck Higher Education and Research: Mary Teuw Niane Infrastructure and Transport: Alassane Thierno Sall Interior: Pathe Seck Justice and Keeper of the Seals: Aminata Toure Planning and Local Government: Arame Ndoye Promotion of Good Governance: Abdou Latif Coulibaly Restructuring and Areas of Flooding: Khadim Diop Sport: Mbagnick Ndiaye Minister of State, Secretary-General of the Presidency: Aminata Tall Tourism and Leisure: Youssou Ndour Town Planning and Housing: Khoudia Mbaye Trade, Industry and the Informal Sector: Malick Gackou Training, Learning and Crafts: Mamadou Talla Water and Sanitation: Oumar Gueye Womens Affairs, Childhood and Womens Entrepreneurship: Mariama Sarr Youth, Employment and Promotion of Civic Values: Benoit Sambou Minister Delegate to Economy and Finance responsible for the Budget: Abdoulaye Daouda Diallo Minister Delegate to Foreign Affairs and responsible for Senegalese Abroad: Seynabou Gaye Toure Government Spokesman: Abdou Latif Coulibaly Government Secretary-General: Seydou Gueye

Internal Developments

Somalia Lean Government


After a long delay, the Prime Minister, Abdi Farah Shirdoon, announced a cabinet consisting of just 10 ministers on November 4th. Only three of the appointees were from the administration of former premier Muhammad Abdullahi. Abdihakim Muhammad Haji Fiqi retains his post at the Defence Ministry, while Abdullahi Abyan Nur was appointed Minister for Justice, Religious Affairs and Endowment. Maryan Qasim who was previously the Minister for Gender, is now the Minister for Development of Social Services. (Radio Bar-Kulan website, Nairobi 4/11) Parliament endorsed all 10 ministers on November 13th, approving one of the smallest ever cabinets for the war-ravaged nation. There are two women, including Somalias rst female Foreign Minister, Fowsiyo Yusuf Haji Adan, who is from the self-declared independent state of Somaliland. Lawmakers have endorsed the new cabinet with a majority vote, 219 members out of the 225 who attended the session gave the yes vote to the new cabinet, said parliament speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari. The new government faces tough challenges as it seeks to install order in a country wracked by decades of war, and with AlQaeda-linked al Shabaab insurgents vowing to overthrow the Western-backed administration. ( AFP 13/11 2012) The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon welcomed the swearing in of the newlyappointed Somali cabinet. This marks another important step in the determined efforts by Somalias new leadership to bring about a positive change in Somalia, the UN Chief said. The statement said the Secretary-General and his Special Representative in Somalia, Dr. Augustine P. Mahiga, look forward to working with Somali President Hassan Sheikh and the government to implement the six-pillar policy that will guide the country to democratic elections in the next four years. (PANA, Nairobi 16/11) The government, as published on various local websites, is as follows:
President: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Prime Minister: Abdi Farah Shirdoon, alias Saaid Ministers Defence: Abdihakim Haji Mahmoud Haji, known as Fiqi Finance and Planning: Mahmud Hasan Suleyman Awil Foreign Affairs: Fowsiyo Yusuf Haji Adan Industry: Prof Ahmed Mahmud Wehliye Information, Public Awareness and Coordination: Abdullahi Ciilmooge Hirsi Justice, Religious Affairs and Endowment: Abdullahi Abyan Nur Local Affairs and National Security: Abdihakim Husein Guled Natural Resources: Abdirizaq Umar Muhammad Public Works and National Reconstruction: Muhiyadin Muhammad Kalmoy Social Development: Maryan Kasim

Commenting on the new team, Africa Condential noted that all the cabinet is drawn from a tight circle of Hassan Sheikhs family friends, and his most trusted political allies. He risked appearing elitist and non-inclusive because he wanted to be sure of his team. He is signalling that this government is here to stay and in no mood for compromise on sovereignty. The ruling group has set up commissions at Villa Somalia to plan the restructuring of key ministries: the idea is to establish longterm administrative structures rather than allow the ministries to respond in an ad hoc fashion to the demands of the minister of the day. () The new cabinet got mixed reviews. Diplomats and UN ofcials were pleased when the appointments were nally made but clan loyalists in Mogadishu were bitterly disappointed and claimed the cabinet was too small and clan representation unacceptably minimal. () Some say Hassan Sheikh did not wish to make his government broader and more socially inclusive because he feared appointing ministers whose loyalty he could not be completely sure of in the long run. Problems could emerge if he is trying to engineer a shift from clan politics to party politics. (Africa Condential 16/11) PM appointed p. 19447B

(www.gouv.sn/ 29/10)

CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES
EGYPT
Mursis New Powers A storm of protest greets the move to exert control over all the states institutions.
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Opposition leaders in Egypt called for large protests after President Mohammed Mursi passed a decree giving himself sweeping new powers on November 22nd. The decree states the presidents decisions cannot be revoked by any authority including the judiciary. It also opens the way for a retrial of people convicted of killings during Egypts 2011 uprising which toppled President Hosni Mubarak. Mr Mursis critics denounced the move as a coup against legitimacy. In a joint
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news conference, Sameh Ashour, head of the lawyers syndicate, and key opposition gures Mohamed ElBaradei and Amr Moussa accused Mr Mursi of monopolising all three branches of government and overseeing the total execution of the independence of the judiciary. We are calling on all Egyptians to protest in all of Egypts squares on Friday [November 23rd], they said. Mr ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, wrote on his Twitter account that the President had appointed himC

November 1st30th 2012

Africa Research Bulletin 19483

Egypt November 22nd Declaration


 All investigations into the killing of protesters or the use of violence against them will be re-conducted; trials of those accused will be re-held.  All constitutional declarations, laws and decrees made since Mr Mursi assumed power cannot be appealed or cancelled by any individual, or political or governmental body.  The public prosecutor will be appointed by the president for a xed term of four years, and must be aged at least 40.  The constituent assemblys timeline for drafting the new constitution has been extended by two months.  No judicial authority can dissolve the constituent assembly or the upper house of parliament (Shura Council).  The president is authorised to take any measures he sees t in order to preserve the revolution, to preserve national unity or to safeguard national security.

On November 25th, a teenager died and 60 people were injured in clashes in the Nile Delta town of Damanhour, between the Presidents supporters and opponents. Other clashes saw police ring tear gas in Cairos Tahrir Square area. However, the trouble had died down on November 26th and there were no further reports of clashes. (BBC News
Online 26/11)

Ghana Presidential Candidates


Presidential and parliamentary elections are to be held on December 7th, with the two main parties running almost neck and neck. However, the centre-left National Democratic Congress (NDC) under President John Dramani Mahama has maintained a slight lead, according to local and international pollsters. John Dramani Mahama of the NDC. He came to power on July 24th after the death of President John Atta Mills. Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) Henry Herbert Lartey Papa Kwesi Nduom Akwasi Addai Odike Ayariga Hassan Michael Abu Sakara Foster Jacob Osei Yeboah (Africa Condential 16/11) Former Vice President Dies: Aliu Mahama, 66, died in hospital in Accra on November 16th. President John Mahama declared ve days of national mourning. His body was interred at Asomdwee Park. Mahama had been vice-president for eight years under former President John Kufuor. (PANA, Accra 17/11)

Transport Minister Resigns: President Mursi has accepted the resignation of the Transport Minister Rashad al-Matini in relation to an accident in which a train rammed into a school bus, killing 47 children and injuring 13 others near Asyut. (Nile News TV, Cairo
17/11)

ELECTIONS
GUINEA
Electoral Commission This is the rst step towards preparing long-delayed elections.

self Egypts new pharaoh. A major blow to the revolution that could have dire consequences. On November 25th, 22 Egyptian rights groups called on Mursi to withdraw the decree granting himself extensive new powers, saying he had dealt a lethal blow to the Egyptian judiciary. The announcement of the decree sparked angry and violent demonstrations and attacks on Mursis Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) ofces. Police red tear gas to disperse crowds as supporters of the judges faced off against pro-Mursi demonstrators who tried to disrupt the meeting. (BBC News
Online 25/11)

Guineas electoral commission has been sworn in and is ready to begin moving the country towards long-delayed legislative elections. The opposition, which contested the commissions membership, took part in the swearing-in on November 1st, but said major hurdles remained before Guinea can hold a free, transparent poll. The government-decreed membership list, which sparked a protest when it was released on October 30th, includes nine of the 10 people delegated by the opposition. Under Guinean law the commission is to have 10 members from the ruling party, 10 from the opposition. Fod Oussou Fofana, vice-president of e the UFDG party, and a leading member of Guineas opposition coalition, says the governments move was aimed at provoking the opposition. The government wants to give the international community the impression that the opposition does not want to go to elections. Fofana adds that this is in part why the opposition decided to participate in the launch of the electoral commission. Still, opposition members say the commission does not yet conform to the law and they will continue their appeal to get their 10th member included. Beyond membership issues, though, a longstanding grievance of the opposition remains; the company that will manage electoral lists. Guineas opposition for months has argued that the current operator was unilaterally hand-picked by President Alpha Cond and must be e
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replaced. Opposition leaders say this must be one of the electoral commissions rst priorities. For its part the Guinean government says it is committed to an election that will be free, fair and transparent. Guinea was to have elected a parliament six months after President Cond came e to power at the end of 2010. The incomplete political transition has some donors suspending development assistance. On November 1st, members of the commission elected Bakary Fofana as commission president. Long active in Guinean civil society, Fofana was a minister in a transitional government in 2010. The commission must now come up with a timeline for legislative elections.
(News Agencies 2/11) Cabinet reshufe p. 19445A

BBC News Online (26/11) reported that Mursi had met with senior judges in an effort to ease the crisis over the extent of his powers. The President said on November 25th that his decree was temporary and not intended to concentrate power in his hands. He was committed to nding common ground with other parties, he said. He also hoped to reach consensus on a new constitution currently being drafted, he added, and the decree was intended to prevent democratically elected bodies from being undermined. While the Judges Club, which represents judges throughout the country, called for a nationwide strike to protest against the decree, the top judicial body, the Supreme Judicial Council, appeared not to reject the decree outright, saying it should only apply to sovereign matters, and urged judges to return to work.
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KENYA
Voter Registration This is the rst test of unity since the 2008 poll violence.
President Mwai Kibaki on November 19th launched the registration of voters,
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Internal Developments

targeting 18m people who will vote to chose his successor in March 2013. Kenyan voters will also choose a new parliament, senate and local representatives during the March 4th vote. In a speech urging Kenyans to register massively for the polls, President Kibaki warned of a crackdown against preelection and post election violence ahead of the vote, the rst of its kind under the 2010 constitution and the rst test of national unity since the 2008 violence. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) launched the registration as part of a 30-day plan to compile a new voters register to replace the one that existed in 2007, when the country last held its general election. The IEBC is the seventh African electoral body to adopt a voter registration plan using biometric voter registers. This will be done through the 25,000 registration centres across Kenya. President Kibaki assured the IEBC of its plan to conduct free and fair polls, saying We shall support the IEBC to conduct a free, fair, peaceful exercise. We will provide adequate security, nancing, human and physical, to ensure this is carried out as planned. Justice Minister Eugine Wamalwa said the government should call off its pending military operation in the Rift Valley to allow more people to register as voters. The Kenyan government is planning to deploy the military into Baragoi, in Samburu county, to counter an attack against the police, which left 46 police ofcers dead as they pursued cattle rustlers. (PANA, Nairobi 19/11)

Progressive Party (DPP). (PANA, Blantyre 19/11)

friends or to form a new party and we have opted to form a new party.
(PANA, Blantyre 6/11)

On November 12th, Atupele Muluzi had resigned his position as Economic Planning Minister, after President Banda told him he did not have what it took to run for the highest ofce. It is with enormous regret that I resign from the post of Minister of Economic Planning, appalled and mortied by the verbal tirade on me by leaders of the (ruling) Peoples Party, he said. President Banda was earlier quoted by state media as telling a rally in southern Mangochi, a district where Muluzi is popular, that he does not even speak the local Yao dialect and yet he wants to become president. Home Affairs Minister Uladi Mussa told the same rally that Atupele was serving two masters and that he should choose between being a minister and resigning. Atupele said the attacks showed that Banda and some ministers lacked the courtesy, mutual respect and dignity that is expected between colleagues. As a matter of principle, I do not believe that I can continue to serve as a member of the cabinet with the honour and dignity that is a requisite for the performance of such duties. He is the rst minister to leave Bandas inclusive government, which was formed seven months ago with the aim of achieving economic recovery and regaining donor condence. ( AFP 12/11 2012) In a separate development, a UDF splinter group announced it had formed a new party on November 6th. Addressing a press conference in Blantyre, former UDF interim president Friday Jumbe identied the new grouping as the Labour Party. Jumbe was anked by former senior UDF ofcials, Zililo Chibambo, Nicholas Kachingwe and Joseph Kubwalo. Jumbe was anointed by Muluzi as UDF acting president soon after the former ruling partys National Chairman retired from active politics. But soon after, two factions emerged, one supporting Jumbe and the other backing Atupele Muluzi. The Jumbe camp accused Muluzi of working behind the scenes to prop up his son, while the Atupele camp accused Jumbe of inaction. Jumbe rejected suggestions that he had formed the new party out of frustration. We havent formed the new party out of frustration, he said. We had several options, either to cease to be politicians or to continue ghting with our
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Meanwhile, Dindi Gowa Nyasulu, president of the Alliance for Democracy (Aford), has retired from active politics, and resigned his post. Godfrey Shawa has been appointed by the partys politburo to act as party president in his place. (PANA, Blantyre 25/11)

SOUTH AFRICA
Mixed Feelings Over Zuma Looking ahead to the ANC conference in December, Africa Condential thinks the President can outwit his detractors.
The re-election of President Jacob Zuma as African National Congress (ANC) President is an unstoppable tsunami, say his backers, yet many members of his original coalition of trades unionists and radicals now vehemently oppose him, reports Africa Condential. His opponents, Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe and Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale, have failed to build the necessary momentum. Their best hopes now lie in two directions proving their claims of mass electoral fraud by Zumas party supporters and ensuring that on the day enough ANC delegates will vote against him in the secret ballot, freed from the pressures of his campaign. Motlanthes and Sexwales campaign has been plagued by intimidation and poor tactics: they have not formed a team to confront Zuma, perhaps for fear of being labelled divisive. The ANCs culture of internal secrecy and hostility to individualism, honed during the years of the apartheid police state, persists. Zumas strong opponent, ANC National Treasurer Mathews Phosa, warned that the danger of contestation becomes personal, disruptive and not in keeping with the strong democratic values of our movement. Although Sexwale is rich, his and Motlanthes supporters have lacked resources where they count, at the party branches which control over 90% of the 4,500 delegates to the ANC National Elective Conference, on December 16th20th in Mangaung (formerly Bloemfontein). Allegations of fraud have ooded into the ANCs Johannesburg headquarters. The main claims are that Zuma benets from fake members and branches, that those perceived to oppose his re-election have been mysteriously disqualied, and that membership of pro-Zuma branches has been bumped up. Gauteng and Eastern Cape provinces, which are both opposed to Zuma, have complained to ANC Secretary General Gwede MantC

PARTIES AND POLICIES


MALAWI
UDF President The son of former president Muluzi is preparing his challenge.
The politburo of the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) has resolved to change the nomenclature of its leader from national chairman to president. This means the UDFs newly-elected National Chairman, Atupele Austin Muluzi, son of former President Bakili Muluzi, will now be referred to as President. Muluzi was elected at the partys national convention on October 30th. Muluzi is scheduled to contest the 2014 presidential elections on the UDF ticket. He is likely to be standing against President Joyce Banda of the Peoples Party and former ruling Democratic
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Africa Research Bulletin 19485

Sudan Islamic Movement Leader


Government-linked Islamists in Sudan on November 19th chose a former cabinet minister as their head after reformers who feel the regime has strayed from its Islamic foundation were ignored, analysts said. The Shura Council of the Islamic Movement elected Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan as the Secretary General, the ofcial SUNA news agency reported. Hassan, a regime loyalist, held the portfolios of nance and energy in the government of President Omar al-Bashir, who seized power in a 1989 Islamist coup. Hassan currently heads parliaments economic committee. The election of the new secretary general reinforces the government control over the Islamic Movement, said Safwat Fanous, a political scientist at the University of Khartoum. Hassan was the only candidate to lead the Islamic Movement after the withdrawal of Ghazi Salaheddine, a former presidential adviser and moderate Islamist. Fanous told AFP that Salaheddine was backed by a pressure group who believe the Islamic Movement should be autonomous from the National Congress Party (NCP) regime. I think their major concern is to make the movement in charge of the government and its political party, and not the other way around, he said. Hassans acclamation followed a fouryearly Islamic Movement conference which, analysts said, was dominated by supporters of the regime despite calls from the Arab Spring-inspired reformers who say corruption and other problems have left the African nations government Islamic in name only. They have also questioned how much longer Bashir should remain in ofce. Vice President Ali Osman Taha stepped down after two terms as secretary general, and analysts see him as a possible successor to Bashir. ( AFP 19/11 2012)

President, Phosa as Deputy President, Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula as Secretary General, Deputy SG Thandi Modise as Chair and Sexwale as Treasurer. The website improbably argues that unless Zuma is ousted, the ANC may lose the 2014 national elections. Everyone in Motlanthes camp denies being involved, as does the ANCYL. Perhaps the National Intelligence Agency is on the trail, concludes the journal. (Africa Condential 16/11)

ZAMBIA
No Ofcial Opposition Following parliamentary by-elections, no party has sufcient seats to full the role.
Zambias former ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) has lost recognition as leader of the opposition in Parliament, Speaker of the National Assembly, Patrick Matibini, announced. This follows the decline in the number of the MMD members of parliament in the House, following losses the party suffered in recent parliamentary by-elections. Matibini, who announced the revocation of the MMDs recognition in the House on November 15th, said currently none of the opposition parties had the required 53 members to satisfy the quo-

rum as provided for under the Republican Constitution. From the 150 seats in parliament, the MMD at the time it was recognised as the ofcial opposition political party on October 19th 2011 had 54 seats, followed by the United Party for National Development (UPND) with 28, the Alliance for Democracy and Development (ADD) and the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) one each; Independent MPs three seats while the remaining seats belonged to the ruling Patriotic Front (PF). The gures changed following by-elections held in four constituencies. The current membership representation in the House stands at MMD (51), UPND (30), ADD and FDD, both still with one seat each, while Independent representation has dropped to two seats. (PANA,
Lusaka 15/11)

IN BRIEF
Republic of Congo: The rst round of parliamentary by-elections in the constituencies of Dongou, Bouanela and Kelle, all in northern Congo, has been set for December 2nd. Voters will head to the polls again after the results of the rst election, won by the ruling party, were annulled by the Constitutional Court over alleged fraud and irregularities. (PANA, Brazzaville 31/10) Guinea Bissau: The head of the National Election Commission (NEC), Desejado Lima da Costa, has died in Portugal, where he had been hospitalised since August. Da Costa had led the NEC since 2008, and was considered an ally of former prime minister Carlos Gomes Junior, who was ousted in an April 12th coup. ( AFP 22/10 2012) Liberia: Thousands of members of the main opposition Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) gathered in the capital on November 7th to mark the one-year anniversary of a deadly police shooting during a disputed election in 2011. The justice ministry decided to let the rally go ahead after the CDC vowed to defy a ban on the gathering. CDC leader and former football star George Weah addressed the families of those who lost their lives when riot police opened re on an opposition protest supporting a poll boycott over fraud accusations. They have gone from our sight but they will never go away from our memory, he told them via telephone from the United States. ( AFP 7/11 2012) Mauritania: President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz has returned home for the rst time since being wounded by one of his own soldiers in October (p. 194339). President Abdelaziz was shot in the arm by a Mauritanian army soldier in what the government said was an accident. He had been in France for six weeks receiving treatment. Thousands of people gathered at the airport to greet the president on his return to the C

Tanzania
CCM Congress: Tanzanias ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party held its eighth national congress in Dodoma from November 11th-13th in order to elect its national chairperson and two vice-chairpersons for a ve-year tenure. Members of the party secretariat and the secretary general were also nominated. (PANA, Dar es Salaam 13/11) The Guardian, Dar es Salaam (14/11), revealed that President Jakaya Kikwete was re-elected national chairman, with Dr Ali Mohamed Shein and Philip Mangula as vice-chairmen for Zanzibar and Tanzania Mainland respectively. (PANA, Dar es Salaam 13/11; The Guardian 14/11) Zanzibar Reshufe: Zanzibar President Dr Ali Mohammed Shein has reshufed his cabinet dropping Minister without portfolio Mansoor Yussuf Himid. According to a press statement, Dr Shein appointed Shawana Bukheti Hassan Minister without portfolio. The Isles president also appointed Mtumwa Kheir Mbarak from the opposition Civic United Front (CUF) Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Mohammed Said Mohamed of the CCM Deputy Minister of Livestock and Fisheries. (The Guardian website, Dar es Salaam 17/10)

ashe that some of their branches have not been recognised by his ofce, which is in charge of branch audits. ANC Eastern Cape Spokesman Mlibo Qoboshiyane has laid a formal complaint about defects in the audit process. Mantashe is Zumas strongest ally in Eastern Cape and the opposition has wooed him without success. Anti-Zuma activists have launched a website, www.forcesofchange.co.za, and a Twitter account, @ChangeANC. The website runs a lengthy critique of Zumas presidency, accusing him and his family of grand corruption. It calls for the election of Motlanthe as party
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19486 Africa Research Bulletin capital Nouakchott. Large crowds also lined the route between the airport and the presidential palace. Reporters present said the 55-year-old leader appeared to be in good health, and waved to crowds from his car, though he gave no statement. (BBC News Online 24/11) Namibia: The Supreme Court on October 25th dismissed an application by nine opposition parties contesting 2009 parliamentary election results, which gave President Hikepunye Pohambas party a landslide victory. The Supreme Court judge Peter Petrus Shivute, in his ruling said that although mistakes had been made, the end result was not affected. In 2009, the ruling SWAPO, in power since independence in 1990, won more than 75% of the votes. ( AFP 25/10 2012) Togo: Fifteen out of 17 National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) members were sworn into ofce on October 24th, with Angle e Dola Aguigah at the head of its executive bureau. The opposition Committee of Action for Renewal (CAR) withdrew its two represen-

National Security tatives in protest at what it terms bad preparations for legislative and local elections that should have been held at the end of October. (republicoftogo.com 13/11; PANA 28/10) Tunisia: A new party, called the Democratic Alliance has been formed under the leadership of Mohamed Koumani. The grouping is seeking genuine reform in the country, as many are disappointed with the performance of the political elite. (Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London 11/11)

National Security
BENIN
Poison Plot Against President Lucrative industrial contracts are cited but the opposition suspects the allegations are a smear.
A presidential bodyguard was detained and questioned in early November over an alleged plot to poison President Thomas Boni Yayi, the public prosecutor, Justin Gbenameto, said on November 7th. Bachirou Adjani became the fourth person to be detained over the mysterious alleged plot to poison the Beninois president. The three others, arrested in October, were also close to Yayi. The ex-Minister of Trade, Mudjaidou Soumanou was arrested on October 21st and charged along with Yayis doctor Ibrahim Mama Cisse and niece Zouberath Kora-Seke with criminal conspiracy and attempted murder. Prosecutors say the three were promised CFA francs 1bn ($2m) to carry out the plot to replace Yayis anti-pain medicine with poison, with the ex-minister acting as an intermediary. Two others are wanted in the case, including the alleged mastermind, businessman Patrice Talon, and his associate Olivier Boko. Talon is a former ally of the president but the two have since fallen out. Both Talon and Boko are believed to be outside Benin and international arrest warrants have been issued against them. Asked why Ajani was questioned, a close advisor of Yayi, who demanded anonymity, said it was due to recent closeness between the bodyguard and Talon. There has been speculation that the alleged plot may have been linked to lucrative contracts involving the port and the cotton industry. Soumanou claimed at the end of October that he had been subjected to psyA
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chological torture in prison, his lawyer told AFP, adding that his client is being held in conditions that are exceptionally difcult, in total isolation, with no opportunity to communicate with his family. Interior Minister Benoit Degla said that Soumanou is being held in normal conditions. The allegations have raised some suspicions in Benin that they are intended to smear the presidents enemies, and members of the opposition have criticised the case. Lazare Sehoueto of opposition coalition Build the Nation Union said that a vague statement by the interior minister in August that spoke of an alleged scheme to destabilise the country had led to suspicions. We knew after they issued that statement that a story was on its way, and here we are, he said. Yayi, 60, is an economist who rst took ofce in 2006 and won re-election in 2011 with 53% of the vote. ( AFP,
Cotonou 24,30/10,7/11)

The statement came after HRW released a 73-page report, A Long Way from Reconciliation, saying the countrys military was responsible for widespread human rights abuses during a brutal crackdown following the attacks on the army. The abuses included arbitrary arrests, illegal detentions, extortions, inhuman treatment, and, in some cases, torture, the rights organisation said in a statement. Coulibaly credited the report in his pledge to launch an investigation to verify the allegations and, if necessary, hold the ofcers accountable.We have nothing to hide nor anyone to protect, he said. The countrys security forces have since August been subject to deadly attacks by armed groups, which the government has blamed on supporters of former president Laurent Gbagbo a claim HRW deems credible but that Gbagbo supporters deny. In October, Amnesty International said more than 200 people, including Gbagbo supporters, had been arbitrarily detained in C^te dIvoire, and urged President o Alassane Ouattara to respect human rights. Coulibaly said at the time that when the security of the state is under threat, the army will step in before the police and judicial ofcials get involved.
( AFP, Abidjan 19/11 2012; HRW, Washington 19/11)

^ COTE DIVOIRE
Military Accused of Abuses A new report shows how far from reconciliation the country remains.
The government on November 19th admitted to possible military slip-ups following a wave of attacks by armed groups and promised to launch a probe, after a Human Rights Watch (HRW) report said the army was responsible for widespread human rights abuses. Given the security situation following the deadly attacks on the army in August and September and the level of human rights training of the security forces, its possible that there were slip-ups, Ivorian Human Rights Minister Gnenema Coulibaly told AFP.
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The Gbagbos and the ICC Laurent Gbagbo has lost his appeal to be freed pending his trial for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, the court ruled on November 2nd. He was found t to stand trial. ICC prosecutors said his possible release on bail pending the conrmation of charges hearings would jeopardize investigations into the crimes in C^te d Ivoire o and that Gbagbo could ee if freed on bond pending the conrmation of charges. Practical adjustments will however need to be made in order to enable him to participate at the conrmation of charges hearing shorter court sessions, rest breaks, video links.
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His wife and former rst lady Simone Gbagbo began testifying on November 13th in her trial for genocide, embezzlement and other charges in the Cote dIvoire. She has been in custody in the northern town of Odienne since April 2011. Meanwhile, the ICC announced on November 22nd that it had unsealed an arrest warrant against her. An ICC statement said that Simone was cited on four counts of crimes against humanity, including murder, rape and other forms of sexual violence, other inhumane acts and persecution allegedly committed in the territory of C^te dIvoire during the o period between December 16th 2010, and April 12th 2011. A court in Ghana on November 7th postponed until December 20th an extradition hearing for Gbagbos spokesman, Justin Kone Katinan, wanted for murder and economic crimes.

their demands. But Ugandan army chief Aronda Nyakairima said Makenga had attached no conditions to the pullout. The rebels had however raised concerns about the security of civilians in the areas they leave, he said. They are so concerned that maybe once they leave those areas some of their people will be killed, Nyakairima said. The M23, which is largely made up of ethnic Tutsis, mutinied in April and seized Goma in a rapid advance. In just a week, the rebels expanded their area of control from one small corner of North Kivu province to cover almost the entire province, an area twice the size of Belgium and rich in diamonds and precious metals, AFP reports (27/11). Meanwhile another group, the Mai Mai militia allied to the DR Congo government, was reportedly taking up positions outside Minova, a town between Bukavu and Goma, to help block any possible advance by the M23. DR Congo army troops equipped with machine guns and rocket launchers were in Minova itself. The African Union (AU) said on the 26th it was considering the deployment of an international neutral force to set up a corridor between the M23 and the DR Congo army. The new ghting, as well as reported atrocities including killings, rapes and abductions of civilians and recruitment of child soldiers, has forced tens of thousands of people to ee their homes in a spiralling humanitarian crisis. Earlier in the month, rebel military chief Makenga was slapped with United Nations (UN) and US sanctions over the alleged atrocities. The M23 rebels have been blamed for hundreds of deaths since the former army soldiers mutinied in April, unhappy with the outcome of a 2009 peace deal that integrated them into the regular army. One of their leaders is Bosco Ntaganda, a former army general nicknamed the Terminator who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Besides Goma, the rebels also seized Sake, a strategic town on the way to South Kivu province and its capital Bukavu. The ghting triggered an exodus from Sake as the entire population streamed out and headed towards Goma some 30km away, where tens of thousands of people are estimated to already be sheltering in camps. The UN expressed shock at the sight of thousands of civilians eeing the rebel advance and appealed for access to help
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those caught up in the violence. And in what would be a major rst for its peacekeeping operations, the UN said on November 23rd it was considering using drones to monitor the ghting between the military and the M23 rebels. The UN has issued a damning report accusing Rwanda, and to a lesser extent Uganda, of backing the rebels. Both countries deny the allegations. The region is home to a complex web of Congolese and foreign rebel groups and militias, and the DR Congo and Rwanda have long traded accusations of bankrolling or arming one or more of these groups. Adding to the instability in the region, the Rwandan army claimed on the 27th that ethnic Hutu extremists based in eastern DR Congo crossed into Rwanda and attacked its forces along the border. Army spokesman Joseph Nzabamwita said Rwandan soldiers repelled around 100 of the militiamen from the villages of Cyanzarwe and Bugeshi which he said they had attacked around dawn. Calling themselves the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), these ghters belong to a Hutu rebel group that ed Rwanda into DR Congo after minority Tutsi leader Paul Kagames forces ended the 1994 genocide there. Believed to have between 3,000 and 4,400 members, it is the most powerful rebel force in the region, according to the UN. Kagames government accuses Kinshasa of backing the FDLR, while the DR Congo accuses Rwanda of backing the M23. Protests Violent demonstrations reportedly erupted in several towns on November 21st, with some protesters targeting UN missions after rebels took over Goma facing little or no resistance from UN peacekeepers and the regular DR Congo army, AFP reported (22/ 11). UN peacekeepers deployed attack helicopters in a vain attempt to halt the rebel advance and it defended its peacekeepers against criticism after Goma fell, with a spokesman saying a battle for the city would have endangered civilians. Congolese Prime Minister Augustin Matata Ponyio said Kinshasa had lost the battle but not the war, and insisted the countrys territorial integrity was nonnegotiable. The UN is also considering bringing in extra troops for the 17,500-strong MONUSCO peacekeeping mission; UN leader Ban Ki-moon is to recommend options to the Security Council
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(PANA, Nairobi & Abidjan 2,13,22/11; AFP, Accra 7/11) Unreformed army p. 19454

DR CONGO
M23 Takes Goma Fears of wider conict erupting in the chronically unstable region grow and a humanitarian catastrophe looms as tens of thousands are displaced.
Rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo were to withdraw from the key city of Goma by the end of the week, their military chief said on November 27th, after the group made a string of demands. M23 rebel leader General Sultani Makenga told AFP the pullout from the capital of mineral-rich North Kivu province would be complete by the 30th. Regional African leaders meeting at a summit in the Ugandan capital, Kampala on the 24th had set a deadline of the 26th for M23 ghters to leave the city. The latest deal was struck late on the 26th in Kampala between Makenga and regional military commanders, who will visit Goma on the 30th to monitor progress of the promised withdrawal. Among the rebels demands is freedom of movement for opposition standardbearer Etienne Tshisekedi, 79, a former prime minister who has been under unofcial house arrest since declaring victory in awed elections in 2011. The rebels, whose capture of Goma on November 20th sparked fears of a broader conict, are also demanding direct talks with the President and the dissolution of the electoral commission. The announcement follows earlier declarations by M23 political leader JeanMarie Runiga that the rebels would withdraw only if the government met
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soon. France has been among those calling for MONUSCOs operational mandate to be toughened so it can take a harder line against the rebels. But UN ofcials say the peacekeepers, who come from nearly 50 countries, must not replace a national army. In the capital Kinshasa, some 1,500 km west of the troubled Kivu region, several thousand women including Justice Minister Wivine Mumba Matipa and several lawmakers marched on the 23rd to protest at the violence AFP reported (24/11). On the 24th, the authorities banned protests, citing the need to keep order in what national police chief Charles Bisengimana called an undeclared state of war. The International Conference of the Great Lakes (ICGL), which rst mooted the plan of sending a regional force to eastern Congo in July, has held several high-level Summits to discuss the composition of the neutral force. At talks in Kampala on November 21st, Kabila and the leaders of Rwanda and Uganda insisted rebels immediately pull out of Goma. In a joint statement President Kagame and Ugandas President Museveni made it clear that even if there were legitimate grievances by the mutinying group known as M23, they cannot accept the expansion of this war, said a joint statement issued after the talks. The United States also renewed calls for M23 to halt their latest offensive. The European Union (EU), too, added its voice to the international chorus demanding that the rebels stop their advance, France 24 reported (23/ 11). UN envoy Roger Meece accused the rebels of carrying out summary executions of local leaders in their advance on Goma and said they were trying to set up a formal administrative or governing structure in the region. A Security Council resolution on the 20th called for wider sanctions against M23 leaders and condemned all external support for the rebels. The DR Congo government on the 19th had dismissed a demand from the rebels for truce talks, saying that the insurgent force pushing towards the city of Goma was a tool of neighbouring Rwanda. However, according to Reuters (24/11), Kabila, whom it reported as saying was willing to hear the rebels grievances, appointed a new interim head of ground forces on the 23rd. Gen. Francois Olenga Tete takes over from former army boss Gen. Gabriel Amisi, who was suspended on

the 22nd over charges he had sold arms to other eastern rebels. Kabila Between Rock and a Hard Place The M23 counterattack has left it in control of Goma, the Congolese military humiliated and President Kabila running out of options, writes Ben Shepherd of Chatham House (22/11). The East African (24/11) agrees that Kabila is in a precarious position and says the discontent that has dogged his presidency has deepened. Whether he eventually caves in to the direct talks the rebels have repeatedly demanded or sticks with Kinshasas political class, which is totally opposed to the idea, Kabila is trapped in a no-win situation. The Kinshasa elite fear the disintegration of the DRC and are desperate to maintain central control over its far-ung and fractious provinces. Anti-Rwandan feeling is deep and widespread. To survive politically, he will have to break ranks with the so-called Mobutuists around him who hold him hostage, and agree to M23s demandswhich essentially are semi-autonomous control of the Kivus, at least for now, which they had been granted under the March 2009 agreement. But that can only come after calm returns; the current storm directly threatens President Kabilas hold on power. Kabila needs to rebuild condence among M23 and resume the military reforms he had started at the beginning of the year that were intended to bring all rank and le within the Congolese army, regardless of their background, under his absolute command as the Commander-in-Chief. A high-ranking UDPF colonel told The EastAfrican that M23 had stronger grounds to bargain than when they were just controlling Rutshuru. To get them to stop and even retreat from Goma will take diplomatic skill on Musevenis part and stronger assurances from Kabila that, this time, he will deliver on what he promises. Theres a precedent where Kabila has reneged on his promises, the real reason why this conict has reemerged, the ofcer said. Accusation and Denials: Rwandas Double Game Rwanda has been accused by UN investigators, human rights groups and the Congolese government of backing M23. The UN has issued a damning report accusing Rwanda, and to a lesser extent Uganda, of backing the rebels, who it says have murdered, raped and kidnapped civilians in their sweep across the east. Both countries deny the allegations.
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Analysts say there could be no other explanation for a force numbering no more than 3,000 men being able to overpower regular Congolese forces and seize a such large chunk of land. If the M23 are indeed receiving weapons and training and even support from Rwandan frontline troops that would account for the ease for which they went through that area, said Peter Chalk from the RAND security research group. A panel of UN experts on DR Congo has said that Rwanda not only funds and arms the M23 but also supervises ground operations, describing Rwandan Defence Minister General James Kabarabe as the de facto head of the chain of command. Their report named Uganda as co-sponsor of M23, throwing fuel on the re caused by the experts earlier accusation against Rwanda. Uganda has since put on a show of outrage, threatening to pull its troops out of Somalia if the allegations are not withdrawn. Its Foreign Affairs Minister, Asuman Kiyingi, said Kampala had been stabbed in the back by the UN. On November 20th, Uganda blamed the escalation of ghting in eastern Congo on the leaked report, saying also it had damaged its mediation efforts. Probably in response to the UN group of experts report, Uganda on November 13th closed a border crossing near Bunagana, where M23 has its headquarters. International Crisis Group (ICG) Congo analyst Thierry Vircoulon said the move would hurt M23 nancially as it had been taxing trafc at the crossing, but would not of itself prevent continued military support from Rwanda. The controversy over the leaked UN report on the conict continued midmonth as the UN Security Council debated it yet again. The US was against formal publication of the report by the Group of Experts and Britain in favour, sources in New York told Africa Condential. During the Security Council discussions, China and Russia were said to be indifferent and France, silent. The discussions followed the November 12th report by the Chairman of the Congo Sanctions Committee, Azerbaijani Ambassador Agshin Mehdiyev. The only matter of substance agreed at the meeting was to add Sultani Makenga to the UN travel ban and asset freeze list. Rwandas continuous denials are being given little credence, reports The Times, London (24/11). Britain has described the allegations of Rwandan support as credible and compelling. The Rwandan government has sustained a double game in Eastern DRC, backing rebels while denying involvement to its
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international allies. But this has become increasingly difcult to maintain, says Ben Shepherd of Chatham House. Compelling evidence has stacked up for the provision of logistics, weapons, recruits and even the active support of its army to its Congolese allies. Aid has been suspended or cut, and Kigali has faced unprecedented international scrutiny. But this pressure has not resulted in the hoped-for change of heart. Instead, Kigali has deployed a erce rhetoric of self-reliance, decrying external meddling. And, rather than pulling the M23 back, it seems likely to have at the very least given its consent for the M23 to take Goma, humiliating the Congolese government and forcing Kabila to negotiate from a position

of weakness. Rwanda and the DRC are caught in a stand-off with both playing for high stakes; Kigali will likely face further international approbation, and Kabilas political base risks crumbling underneath him. Both will be hoping the other blinks rst. Ben Payton, an Africa analyst at risk consultancy Maplecroft, writing for ThisisAfrica (21/11) says the ability of the M23 to consolidate its dramatic victory depends on its success in broadening its political base. Capturing Goma will not solve the M23s underlying vulnerabilities. The deep mistrust between the groups two leading gures Bosco Ntaganda and Sultani Makenga will continue to threaten the unity of the movement. Most seriously, the groups greatest asset the military and nancial support supplied by Rwanda is also the source of its greatest liability, namely its reputation locally as the puppet of a foreign aggressor. As a result, the group will face acute difculties in attracting local support from outside the Rwandophone population, and will struggle to capture and hold hostile territory with limited manpower and resources. This is particularly the case since Rwanda is likely to come under intense international pressure to curtail its support for the rebellion. In Dr Congo, the risk of a coup is high, and will continue to grow if the M23 inicts further losses on the government, or if new rebel movements emerge to exploit the FARDCs weakness elsewhere in the country, particularly in the province of Katanga where there is signicant support for secession. Rwanda is unlikely to seek a further escalation for the time-being; it has now achieved its main objective of establishing a buffer zone between itself and the Kinshasa-based government, and is likely to be cautious in increasing its support for the M23. The actual overthrow of Kabila is far less central to Rwandas interests, since a return to fullscale war for the rst time since 2003 would consume huge resources and undermine efforts to create a stable business environment in Rwanda. On November 20th, the ICG declared: Regional and international actors must now prevent this turning into a new regional war. Long-term solutions will require that the UN Security Council, AU and International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) ensure that peace agreements and stabilization plans no longer remain empty promises. To achieve this, coordinated and unequivocal pressure on the Congolese government and the M23 rebel movement, as well as the latters external supporters, is
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required from international donors and regional actors, ICG said. Now the rebels have captured Goma and are willing to negotiate; the government should honour this, Angelo Izama, analyst and a fellow at the Open Society Institute, told the Un humanitarian and news analysis service, IRIN (21/11).
(Sources as referenced in text) No breakthrough p. 19456

Human Rights Abuses M23 has, according to Jason Stearns, director of the Rift Valley Institutes Usalama Project, forged alliances with nine armed groups in eastern DRC, including factions of the Raia Mutomboki (Angry Citizens) coalition, an antiRwandaphone Mai Mai, or rebel, group now allied with M23. Most of these groups have only a few hundred ghters but they have managed to inict some defeats on an army preoccupied with M23. Raia Mutomboki and their allies the Mai Mai Kifuafua arbitrarily executed at least 264 civilians, including 83 children, in Masisi between April and September 2012. according to a report by human rights investigators, released on November 14th. Many victims were hacked to death with machetes while others were burnt alive in their homes during more than 75 rebel attacks on villages in southern Masisi Territory, located in North Kivu province, the report notes, according to a joint news release from the UN Joint Human Rights Ofce (UNJHRO). In the news release, UNJHRO also warned that the actual number of atrocities could be considerably greater because security restraints prevented the investigators from being able to conrm many more reports of human rights violations. Noting a signicant increase in human rights violations throughout the Kivus, the Secretary-Generals Special Representative for DRC and head of MONUSCO, Roger Meece, warned that the security situation could worsen. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, called on the Congolese authorities to take immediate measures to protect civilian populations and to combat what she called persistent impunity, which she said only serves to embolden the killers. The systematic human rights violations committed by these armed groups, including the slaughter of so many children, are the most serious we have seen in recent times in the DRC, she added. The human rights chief also said the UN was ready to offer support to DRCs recently launched judicial investigation
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The UN Experts Report


The leaked UN Experts nal report says that Rwanda commands and controls M23, supported by deployments in Congo of the Uganda Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF). UPDF ofcials allegedly sent weapons and troops to reinforce M23 ghters during operations to seize key towns in Rutshuru territory, in North Kivu. The experts also say that M23 leader Sultani Makenga procured weapons from UPDF ofcers, returning from visits to the Ugandan border town of Kisoro with 12.7 mm. machine guns which they received free of charge. They also say the UPDF deployed 600 troops in Busanza, Congo, to prepare for the attacks on Rutshuru. Ugandan soldiers formed a mixed brigade with RDF troops, totalling 2,000 men and outnumbering the entire strength of M23, which the report puts at 1,250. The recruitment of ghters for M23 is also under way in Uganda, they add. The UN Experts name the key UPDF gures as the Second Division Commander, Brigadier Patrick Kankiriho, and Major Charles Mukasa, the 63rd Battalion Commander at Kisoro. The report says that support comes from the top and M23 rebels meet weekly with President Yoweri Kaguta Musevenis brother and military advisor, Maj. Gen. Caleb Akandwanaho, better known as Salim Saleh. An M23 delegation led by its political coordinator, Jean-Marie Runiga Lugerero, spent months in Kampala, the Experts report. The chief point of contention between the two governments and the Experts is proof. Rwanda and Uganda protest that there is no concrete evidence because the experts sources are anonymous. The Experts have, however, described the type of source they have relied on. They include: current and former soldiers of the FARDC, RDF, UPDF and M23; diplomats, border ofcials, local leaders, civilian eyewitnesses and members of the Congolese, Rwandan and Ugandan governments. (Africa Condential 16/11) UN report p. 19455 A
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into the atrocities, noting that these must lead to the prosecution of those responsible for these acts and ensure justice for the victims. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR warned that ghting had blocked access to all but one of the 31 camps for displaced people in North Kivu. The fact that there are now 2.4m IDPs [internally displaced persons] in the DRC, including more than 1.6m in the Kivus, is a very bleak illustration of the dire humanitarian situation the country is facing, the Director of Operations for the UN Ofce for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), John Ging, told reporters at UN Headquarters in New York on November 5th. He noted that the UN and its partners had appealed for $791m to provide life-saving assistance to DR Congo in 2012 and have so far only received $429m. (UN News Service 5,16/
11).

DRC Events in November


3rd: The African Union (AU) afrms its support for Ugandas mediation amid a row over Kampalas involvement in M23 activities. 13th: The UN and US order sanctions against M23 head, Sultani Makenga. 14th: The UN says armed groups in the region slaughtered over 200 people including scores of children between April and September. 15th: The Congolese government snubs talks with the rebels. Fighting breaks out between the army and the M23 near Goma with both sides accusing each other of fuelling hostilities. 16th: The regional government says 150 M23 rebels have died in ghting with government troops, but the M23 denies this and says its forces have killed nine government soldiers. Congolese ofcials say the rebels killed were wearing Rwandan military uniforms. 17th: A spokesman for the UN peacekeeping forces in the region says the M23 rebels have taken the town of Kibumba, 25km from Goma. UN forces deploy attack helicopters against the rebels. The Security Council, meeting in an emergency session strongly condemns the latest M23 attacks. 18th: UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon says UN forces will stay in Goma, after the rebels say they are closing in on the city. 19th: The rebels issue an ultimatum, warning that they will continue to ght unless the government opens talks within 24 hours. Kinshasa rejects their demands. The AU)strongly condemns the M23 offensive and asks the group to immediately and unconditionally stop. Amid growing acrimony, Rwanda accuses the DR Congo army of ring into its territory, targeting the airport in the border town of Gisenyi. 20th: Rebel ghters move into Goma whose 300,000 population is swollen by tens of thousands of refugees from ghting elsewhere in the region. A Security Council resolution calls for wider sanctions against M23 leaders and condemns all external support for them. Resolution 2076 also condemns M23s human rights abuses. Targeted sanctions are imposed on the groups leadership. 21st: M23 announces plans to march to Kinshasa. 24th: At a summit in Kampala, regional leaders urge the rebels to abandon their war, giving them 48 hours to withdraw to at least 20km outside Goma, while calling on the Kabila government to take steps to resolve the rebels legitimate grievances. 27th: The M23 military chief says rebels will withdraw from Goma by the end of the week, after the group makes a string of demands.

despite the presence of a MONUSCO base less than a kilometre away. (IRIN
27/11)

EGYPT
Jihadi Organisations On the Rise Sinai Islamists are spreading inland.
Egyptian police have seized dozens of bombs and arrested several people allegedly planning attacks in the country, the Interior ministry said on October 31st, in an apparent crackdown on militants, AFP reported (31/10). The ministry said police found 83 bombs in a car on a highway outside Cairo, and later arrested two men allegedly linked to them. At a Cairo apartment, they also seized half a kilogramme (one pound) of ball bearings, which can be used in bombs to cause greater damage and injury, and a manual on bomb manufacture. And they separately arrested two men with electrical circuit boards that could be used in bombs. The statement, which did not say when the arrests were made, also described an operation in late October in which a militant identied as K.A.A died in an explosion during a police raid. State-run media published contradictory accounts on the mans identity, with some reporting that he was an Al-Qaeda linked Libyan and another saying he was Tunisian. The Interior ministry issued a statement criticising the conicting accounts, but not disclosing the mans identity. Al Jazeera Online (25/10) said he was a Libyan national, Karim Ahmad Isam Muhammad al-Azizi. In a related raid, police arrested three suspects, including a Tunisian, and seized a suicide bomb vest, explosives and cell phone detonators, the Interior ministry statement said. London-based newspaper Al-Hayat website reported on October 27th that Sinai Jihadis had moved into the heart of Egypt. Al-Hayat said it had learned that the Egyptian Intelligence Directorate had taken over the dossier of the interrogation of ve people accused of terrorism, and who are suspected of having links to the attack on the US embassy in Benghazi, Libya (see p. 19508) Al Hayat quoted Islamic experts as conrming the spread of jihadi organisations in Egypt and the need to confront their ideology as well as revise the social conditions that give rise to violence. On November 17th local media reported that 25 foreigners citizens of Spain, Britain, Turkey, Serbia and Indonesia
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As Masisi nds itself surrounded by military elements and mounting conict, humanitarian agencies grow increasingly concerned about its civilian population. Masisi is a transit corridor for everything from minerals to arms, and it is a former stronghold of CNDP. Currently under government control, it is also home to the Alliance of Patriots for a Free and Sovereign Congo (APCLS), an armed group now allied with FARDC, the national army. Northwest of Masisi town is the unpredictable Raia Mutomboki. To the northeast is Mai Mai Cheka, which is known for beheadings and is said to be engaging with M23. To the south, in Minova, is FARDC, which is also known for rights abuses. Its a terrible road, huge insecurity, tons of militia, hundreds of existing campsalready its a catastrophe, said Tariq Riebl, humanitarian coordinator for the NGO Oxfam. Five camps for internally displaced people northeast of Masisis Mushaki Village have emptied out so far at least one due to pillaging by Raia Mutomboki leaving 50,000 people pre-emptively on the move. Many of those who ed Masisi have arrived at Mugunga I and Lac Vert camps just outside Goma. Insecurity is hampering aid efforts, with ongoing ghting and attacks preventing aid workers from reaching some areas for prolonged periods of time, said an Oxfam statement (26/11). On November 14th, the Jesuit Refugee Service (JRS) issued a public statement calling for MONUSCO and the army to urgently intervene to stop Congos
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( AFP and news agencies)

forgotten conict in Masisi. The organization documented at least 18 titfor-tat killings and the burning of displacement camps and villages, some
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suspected of terrorist links, who entered Egypt as tourists, had been arrested on suspicion of belonging to a terrorist cell.
(Sources as referenced in text)

Coptic Clashes: Five Coptic Christians were injured on October 29th in clashes with Muslims at a church in a village south of Cairo, security sources said. The violence came on the eve of the vote for a new Coptic Pope (see p. 19508) Sinai Sacking: Interior Minister Ahmed Gamal sacked the head of security in North Sinai, a day after an attack that killed three policeman in the peninsula sparked protests by their colleagues. Gamal ordered that the head of security, Ahmed Bakr, be replaced by his deputy in response to complaints from police over Sinai lawlessness. ( AFP, Cairo 29/
10, 4/11 2012)

Anniversary Protests: Protesters clashed with police in Cairo on November 19th leaving dozens injured on the rst anniversary of street battles in 2011 that left 45 demonstrators dead, witnesses said. The clashes erupted when protesters tried to destroy a concrete barrier. A medic said at least 10 policemen and 60 protesters were wounded. State-run Nile News TV reported that one protestor was shot dead. ( AFP, Cairo 19/11 2012;
MENA 20/11) Demonstrators protest Islamist power p. 19457

ETHIOPIA
Muslim Protestors on Trial Intolerance of Islam risks fuelling the radicalization the government seeks to avoid.
A packed court in Addis Ababa saw 29 protestors face charges of terrorist acts on October 29th. Ethiopian law denes terrorism as including serious damage to property and the disruption of public services. Those found guilty face a minimum 15 years imprisonment or death. The defendants all pleaded not guilty. One, Habiba Mohammed, is married to former Civil Service Minister Junedin Sado, who was recently suspended from the Oromo Peoples Democratic Organisation, part of the ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). She is also accused of using money from the Saudi Arabian Embassy to fund terror groups and pay for protests. The protestors accuse the government of promoting a version of Islam, Al Ahbash, imported from Lebanon and complain that it manipulated the October 7th elections to the Ethiopian Islamic Affairs Supreme Council. For the rst time, these were held in local governA
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ment ofces rather than mosques. The government says such allegations are fabricated by extremists, but it is worried about the inuence of Salasts from Somalia, Sudan and Saudi Arabia. Some critics say the authorities heavy-handedness risks fuelling the very radicalisation they wish to avoid. Muslims make up some 34% of the population. At least four people died in Asasa, Oromia Region, in April when protestors attacked a police station where an imam was detained. On October 21st, three Muslims and a policeman died in clashes in Gerba in Amhara (p.19466). In July, hundreds were injured and arrested including some of those on trial in November in disturbances around the Awalia mosque compound. Since then, some of the protestors have taken to waving yellow placards, as a warning to government. (Africa Condential 2/11) The governments intolerance of Islam risks radicalizing Muslims commented Alemayehu Fentaw writing in African Arguments (16/11) pointing out that the Ethiopian constitution provides for freedom of religion and requires the separation of state and religion There is little evidence to support the Governments claim that its own Muslim community poses a legitimate threat to national and regional security Since Ethiopia is a critical partner in the Wests War on Terror, the government seeks to keep Western support and aid owing through characterizing the Muslim community as linked to Islamic radicals.
(African Arguments 16/11)

Somali region were dashed in October when talks between the government and the separatist Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) broke down. Hosted by Kenya in Nairobi, the negotiations started in September, with Ethiopias delegation led by Defence Minister Siraj Fegessa and the ONLF team headed by Abdirahman Mahdi, ONLF Foreign Secretary. They agreed negotiation process modalities and the initial agenda, the ONLF said. Despite optimism from both parties, the talks fell at the rst hurdle, with the government insisting the rebels rst accept the countrys constitution, a demand rejected by the ONLF as a breach of the talks agreed modalities.
(IRIN, Nairobi 29/10)

GUINEA BISSAU
Coup Mastermind Arrested Fear levels are high in the aftermath of the army barracks attack.
The October 21st attack when soldiers stormed barracks near Bissaus main airport, targeting military gures and leaving six people dead has provoked more fear than the numerous coups and counter-coups of recent years, reported
IRIN (9/11).

Amnesty International accused the authorities of committing human rights violations in response to the ongoing Muslim protest movement in the country. The organization said the police was using excessive force against peaceful demonstrators. Human Rights Watch says it is deeply concerned that Ethiopias government has repeatedly used terrorism-related prosecutions to clamp down on lawful freedom of speech and assembly. Many of these trials have been politically motivated and marred by serious due process violations, a HRW researcher, told IRIN. (IRIN, Addis Ababa 15/11)

The transitional government branded the attack a coup attempt, and accused former colonial power Portugal of backing it in an attempt to propel former Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior, who is in exile there, back into power. Africa Condential (2/11) pointed out that these accusations were without evidence. Within days, alleged coup leader Captain Pansau NTchama was arrested on the island of Bolama, in the Bijagos archipelago. He is expected to face a military court later in the year. He was arrested along with at least two other suspects, Al Jazeera reported (28/10). A government spokesman said Ntchama had used a vehicle belonging to a former
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On October 27th, the Charities and Societies Agency (CSoA) shut down 10 NGOs and cautioned 476 others. The Islamic Religion Research Centre (IRRC) and Awelia School had their registration revoked, having strayed from their mandate and being involved in religious activities. (The
Reporter, Addis Ababa 27/10).

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member of Gomes Juniors government to carry out the attack. Ntchama was the head of a commando unit believed to have assassinated President Joao Bernardo Vieira in 2009. He had returned in October from Portugal where he had been undergoing military training since July 2009, Al Jazeera reported security sources as saying. The captain is also a former associate of the government overthrown in the April coup. Yet no one can explain why he should attempt a suicidal attack on one of the best equipped and well manned bases, Africa Condential pointed out. Although Guinea-Bissaus history is littered with coups, counter-coups and attempted coups, most ordinary BissauGuineans have not been involved or directly affected. However, Octobers attack has ramped up tensions, largely because it took place during a dedicated transition period backed by regional bloc the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and designed to lead Guinea-Bissau towards fresh elections in April 2013, said IRIN. ECOWAS on November 11th extended the initial six-month mandate of its mission in Bissau (ECOMIB) by another six months. The decision was taken at the emergency summit of the West African leaders in Abuja Nigeria, a few days after ECOWAS and Guinea-Bissau signed the Status of Mission Agreement (SOMA) formalising the deployment of the force in May 2012. The summit called upon the African Union (AU) to recognise the Transitional Government in Guinea Bissau, established with the facilitation of ECOWAS. In addition, they urge the AU to suspend the sanctions imposed on Guinea Bissau as an encouragement to the transitional authorities and in recognition of the progress the country continues to make towards forging a more inclusive transitional government to pave the way for the peaceful restoration of full constitutional order in the country, the communique said. The summit was attended by 10 of the 15 ECOWAS Heads of States from Nigeria, Benin, Senegal, Togo, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, C^te o dIvoire and Niger, as well as representatives of the AU and the UN, among others, PANA reported (11/11). ECOMIB troops have no clear duties and are poorly housed and supplied, Africa Condential pointed out. It said that government soldiers mistreatment of opposition members (see below) exposes ECOMIBs impotence and the armys claims not to interfere politically.
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Human Rights Setback The attack also raised fears of rising human rights abuses: Two politicians, Yancuba Djola Indjai from the Solidarity and Labour Party (PST) and Silvestre Alves, leader of the Democratic Movement of Guinea Bissau (MDG) were badly beaten by soldiers the day after the coup attempt and a Portuguese journalist was expelled from the country. The government denied the involvement of the armed forces in beating up the two politicians and vehemently condemned such brutal actions at a news conference, Portuguese RTP Africa TV reported (23/10). On November 6th Luis Ocante da Silva, who was an ally of the ex-army head Jos Zamora Induta, was abducted from e his home by a group of uniformed men, and was on November 9th reported to have died from his wounds. The last time I saw this level of fear among activists and commentators was in the build-up to the civil war in the late 1990s, a former diplomat told IRIN on condition of anonymity. People are really afraid to talk in public about politics or even initiatives, he said. It has also raised tensions between ethnicities as so many difcult questions rear their heads regarding Bissaus future. Since the April coup several sources say drug trafcking has mounted. Two planes full of cocaine allegedly landed on the mainland in late October/early November: in Gabu, southeast of the capital Bissau on November 5th and in Catio, southwestern Bissau, the week before. Octobers events were a setback for human rights in Guinea-Bissau, say rights groups. Several arrests have been made since NTchama was caught in late October. At least two journalists have gone into hiding, and as yet unfounded rumours of assassinations are circulating. Having human rights is one thing, but applying them is something else entirely, Fernando Texeira, coordinator of human rights group Casa dos Direitos in Bissau, said. Were working on outreach projects to inform people that they have human rights, but what kind of rights do they really have right now? We have to ask ourselves whether the future will bring true justice and liberty to Bissau, said Texeira. The Casa dos Direitos building, which was once Bissaus main jail, includes a room that is equipped with seats and a projector for talks and debates, he said. We planned to invite people to come and speak about human rights and politics, but people are afraid Nobody feels comfortable discussing their politB

ical views with people they dont know or trust at the moment. Guinea Bissau ranks 176 out of 187 countries on the UN human development index; just over half of the adult population is literate; life expectancy at birth is 48 years. After months of on-off striking by teachers, schools remain closed despite an agreement having been signed between teachers and the transition government, IRIN reported. (Sources as referenced in
text) Raid on elite barracks p. 19457

KENYA
Massacre of Policemen North-eastern residents ee fearing a backlash as the army is called in after 42 policemen are killed by cattle rustlers.
The death toll from a weekend ambush on Kenyan police ofcers in the north of the country the deadliest ever had risen to 42 by mid-November. We have never lost such a big number of ofcers, AFP (12/11) quoted a police source as saying on condition of anonymity. 107 ofcers hunting cattle thieves were ambushed by gunmen on November 10th in Baragoi, Samburu County, a remote district in Kenyas arid north. The group of rustlers police were pursuing were already suspected of killing 13 people in a raid on October 30th. Police set out after the rustlers when a deadline for the return of the cattle expired. The rustlers also stole rearms from the slain ofcers, who were from the regular and administration police, GSU and the anti-stock theft unit, before eeing into Suguta Valley, the Daily Nation (19/11) reported. The National Security Council, chaired by President Mwai Kibaki, then authorised the deployment of the military into Samburu, PANA reported (14/11). Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF) Information Operations Commander, Col. Cyrus Oguna, said the force received orders to deploy to Samburu county where it would mount a security operation to disarm locals. It would exercise what they called the principle of minimum force, with utmost consideration and concern for innocent civilians, The national security council said the military would provide support to the police in apprehending the bandits and recovering stolen animals and arms. Residents in Baragoi, the main town in Samburu North district, said there had been a big build-up of police ofcers in the town. The joint military-police operation created massive panic in Turkana South and Central constituencies after reports of the deployment reached the villages.
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MPs from Turkana County called a press conference to condemn the use of the military. They said the President will take full responsibility as the Commander in Chief for any human rights violations that will be wrought on innocent people in the region, including torture, The Standard reported (16/11). Meanwhile, the Kenyan authorities charged local government ofcials and elected leaders in Samburu with 32 counts of murder. The local chiefs and four area councillors were charged in court with murder. The reason for their charges were unknown. The suspects were detained for 14 days to allow for investigations. Lack of Security Capacity Exposed Cattle theft and the ensuing clashes between rival pastoralist groups claim dozens of lives every year in northern Kenya. However, it is rare for police ofcers to be attacked. The violence was not believed to be linked to politics, but it raised concerns over security and a lack of police capacity in volatile areas ahead of elections due to take place in March, said AFP. Wilfred Kapondi, chairman of the parliamentary committee on security, said that the attack had exposed our security forces lack of capacity. It is time they took serious action and ensure the police have adequate machinery to deal with criminals, Kapondi told reporters. Privately-owned daily newspaper The Standard (13/11) called the police mission a doomed one. It said that many of those killed by armed so-called Ngoroko bandits were fresh out of college. The Standard was bafed that police ofcers drawn mainly from Nakuru, and very unfamiliar with the rugged and hilly topography of Suguta valley and surrounding areas, were sent on this mission without air or even intelligence cover. The Standard said that policemen had been slaughtered adding that top government ofcials should hang their heads in shame that the bodies of the fallen were left to decompose in open trucks amid claims a helicopter to transport them had broken down. British High Commissioner in Kenya Christian Turner said that the massacre was a clear indication that many illegal groups in the country possessed huge arsenals capable of destabilizing security. KBC Radio, Nairobi (18/11) reported him as saying that his government was ready and willing to train local police ofcers in disarmament so that the exercise could be conducted in a more humane way without infringing on the human rights of the suspects and the innocent people as well.

The Daily Nation later reported (19/11) that the cattle rustlers in Baragoi were using women and children as human shields to avoid arrest. Rift Valley Provincial Police boss John MMbijjiwe, who was leading the crackdown, told the Nation that they were having difculty separating women and children from the suspects hiding in the Suguta Valley. However, he said only 35 security agents were killed, although independent sources put the toll at 41 or 42. A police chopper had been conducting aerial surveillance in Suguta Valley in preparation for a swoop by a joint force of the police and the army. Meanwhile, hundreds of residents were eeing Baragoi for Maralal Town, as tension continued to rise in the area and more police ofcers continued to arrive in the township, which was being patrolled day and night. A senior police ofcer told the Nation that Turkana South MP Josephat Nanok and his Turkana Central counterpart Ekwee Ethuro would be charged in court with incitement to violence. The detectives were also expected to interrogate Labour minister John Munyes who told a press conference at Parliament Buildings after the massacre that police should have sought their help to convince the rustlers to return the animals instead of planning the military operation. Mr Nanok, who is also Forestry assistant minister, warned that President Kibaki risked being taken to the International Criminal Court for authorising the deployment of the army. (Sources as
referenced in text)

them having suffered head injuries. One victim said he recalled receiving kicks and blows before one ofcer remarked: You are used to killing police ofcers, today, you did it to the wrong people. KDF Information Commander, Col. Oguna, said the ve ofcers who came under re were part of an African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) contingent joining the operation in sector II, in southern Somalia, PANA reported (19/ 11). Fresh violence broke out on November 20th, with one person killed and seven others shot and wounded, ofcials said, a day after security forces cracked down on rioters. Several other people were also hospitalised, some of them after being beaten with clubs by security forces in a crackdown following the killing of the three soldiers. Kenya Red Cross said that one person had died and 48 others including seven with gunshot wounds were being treated at Garissa hospital. However, relative calm and normalcy had returned to the town by late afternoon, it added in a statement. Garissas main market was torched during the violence. The government however, was taken to task on November 22nd over alleged brutality and destruction by the military in Garissa in an emotional session of parliament, Capital FM Radio, Nairobi reported. The Cabinet on November 22nd approved the establishment of an inquiry into the killing of security ofcials and the subsequent destruction of property in both Baragoi and Garissa. President Mwai Kibaki chaired the meeting at the State House Nairobi, which also approved the reconstruction of the destroyed Garissa market and help for the traders to resume operations as soon as possible. A grenade attack on a church in Garissa had wounded seven people on November 4th. ( AFP, Nairobi 4/11; PANA, 19/
11; Capital FM 22/11)

Garissa Killings Kenyan military ofcers heading to a mission area in Somalia, avoided returning re to minimize collateral damage in Garissa, when gunmen opened re, killing three of the ve ofcers, the military said on November 19th. The KDF said communication equipment used by the terror suspects were seized after the joint military and the police crackdown was launched. There was heavy gunre around Garissa town after the army ofcers came under re. The streets across the town were deserted as the crackdown continued. At least 35 people sustained serious wounds after being beaten by the joint military and police patrols. Dozens of civilians were shown on local television station passing through a joint security checkpoint, hands raised in the air. The Garissa Provincial hospital received 35 victims of the crackdown, most of
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Eastleigh Bomb: Clashes erupted in a mainly Somali area of Nairobi on November 19th after a deadly bus bombing, the latest attack blamed on sympathisers of Somalias al-Qaedalinked al Shabaab. Police and hospital sources also said a further two people had succumbed to their injuries from the November18th bus bombing in the capitals Eastleigh district, bringing the death toll to nine. This was later amended to 10. Police used tear gas and red into the air to contain rioting in Eastleigh after nonC

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Somali Kenyans turned on Somalis and attacked their shops and stalls, accusing them of responsibility for the bomb.
( AFP, Garissa & Nairobi 19,20/11)

MRC Leader Freed: Mombasa Republican Council (MRC) leader Omar Mwamnuadzi has been released on bond after spending 25 days in Shimo la Tewa Prison. Also set free was his wife Maimuna Mwavyombo who was captured together with her husband and two children on October 15th at Kombani in Kwale County. The leader, who faces seven charges, and his family had been unable to pay Shs 1m ($12,000) each as bail for more than three weeks. Three other MRC leaders, spokesman Mohamed Rashid Mraja, SecretaryGeneral Hamza Randu and Salim Hamisi Mlamba who heads MRCs council of elders remain incarcerated. (The Standard
13/11)

gave a death toll of 50 government forces killed and said hundreds were wounded in the battles with welltrained combatants in Bani Walid who possessed modern weapons. Defence Minister Osama al-Jueili gave a bleak assessment of conditions in the town on October 29th saying that armed groups were preventing families from returning home. The town is completely empty except for a small number of people who are living in tragic conditions; there is no activity; the impact of shelling is visible everywhere, the minister said. Some 500 homes were burned in the city during the recent clashes between Libyan government-controlled forces and former Gaddafy loyalists. We have tasked a committee drawn from four engineering ofces to fully survey damaged homes and dwellings in the city. Victims will have their rents covered for three months, Dr. al-Hrari said. The army is in control of the city and the population is now less worried, according to Mouin Chernam, Director of the Political Section of the United Nations Mission in Libya, quoted by Magharebia on November 20th.. He also noted that displaced people were returning to schools and hospitals were becoming fully functional. With the reactivation of the police and judicial services, things will quickly improve, Colonel Mohammed Jeraa said. The Bani Walid clashes exacerbated tribal tensions and underscored the difculties of achieving national reconciliation. Tribal elders and commanders in the town had repeatedly called into question the neutrality of the army, which is still being formed, and accused lawless Misrata militias of seeking to destroy Bani Walid. (Magharebia.com 20/

that could lead to jail sentences, following a series of security breaches at its premises. The spokesman of the General National Congress, Omar Hmeidan, said the law was passed due to the exceptional circumstances of the country, adding that it did not aim to restrict the right to demonstrate, but was a measure to combat chaos. The law stipulates that organisers must give the authorities 48-hour notice on the place and time of the event. Offenders are liable to a prison sentence of up to six months and a ne of up to Libyan Dinars 5,000 (about $4,000). The sentence could be higher if the demonstrator is armed. Protesters and gunmen have stormed the assembly on several occasions in past weeks, with some entering as far as the chamber where sessions are held and disrupting a session to vote on a new government. The security of the site has been of concern for the 200 members of the assembly, with one bloc oating the idea of shifting meetings to the east of the country until safety can be guaranteed. Nearly 100 gunmen backed by heavy weapons kept the national assembly under siege on November 1st in protest at the new premiers cabinet lineup and alleged links of some ministers to Gaddafys regime. Rival militias red guns and rocketpropelled grenades at each other in Tripoli on November 4th and set re to a former intelligence building. At least ve people were wounded and a stray bullet entered a hospital in the heart of the city. Residents rushed to arm themselves, saying calls to police had gone unheeded. After more than 12 hours, the army moved in to restore order. ( AFP,
Tripoli 6,13/11 2012; The Independent, London 4/11)

A grenade attack in the coastal city of Mombasa on November 16th left four people seriously wounded, including a local chief, a government ofcial said.
( AFP, Mombasa 16/11 2012) Warning to separatists p. 19458

LIBYA
Safe to Return? Bani Walid is shakily coming back to life but tensions remain.
In October, the desert town of Bani Wali was a war zone. By mid-November it was coming back to life, reported Magharebia.com with citizens able to resume their normal activities Every day is better than the previous one and steadily improving. The security committee controls all the intersections of the city, which is protected by the national army and the security forces, Local Governance Minister Mohamed al-Hrari told Deutsche Welle. Troops loyal to the Libyan government captured the ashpoint city on October 24th. Hundreds of loyalist ghters, mostly from the rival town of Misrata, AFP reported, entered the town and hoisted the national ag atop abandoned buildings. Later that day Libyan army chief-of-staff, Yussef al-Mangouch, ofcially announced the end of all military operations in the town, despite some pockets of resistance. Government spokesman Nasser alManaa said that about 100 suspects were arrested in Bani Walid in connection with crimes committed during the 2011 revolution namely combatants who sided with Gaddafy forces. Speaking at a news conference, Manaa also
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11; AFP Bani Walid 24,29/10 2012)

Twenty-four Libyans wounded in the Bani Walid ghting were own to Italy on November 22nd for treatment there. There were several hundred casualties in the October ghting, among ghters on both sides and the towns residents. Precise numbers of dead and wounded, however, have not been divulged.
(Libyan Herald 22/11)

Armed clashes broke out on November 10th between armed elements in the neighbouring towns of Kabau and Tiji with dozens said killed or injured. (Al
Watan 10/11)

Trials: A Benghazi military council sentenced ve former Gaddafy regime ofcers to death, Libya Herald reported on November 8th. The ofcers were convicted of committing war crimes, human rights violations and rape during the 2011 Libyan revolution. Three other ofcers received ten-year prison sentences. Meanwhile, a Benghazi court ordered the interrogation of former Libyan National Transitional Council (NTC) chief Mustafa Abdel Jalil over the 2011 killing of rebel commander Abdul Fattah Younes, Tripoli Post reported. (Magharebia.com 9/11)

Protests Law The national assembly announced on November 13th the ratication of a law governing the organisation of protests
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Madagascar Military Operation Out of Control


The rampaging security forces must be brought under control in the south of the country, Amnesty International said after widespread state killings of civilians over cattle theft, and a failure to protect hundreds from mass communal murder. Ofcial sources have claimed that ongoing Operation Tandroka, which started in September, has seen 40 cattle thieves (dahalos) killed and 76 arrested in the southern region of Anosy. Cattle-rustling gangs reportedly killed 14 state security ofcers earlier in the year. However, witnesses have told AI that elderly people, the physically disabled, children, and others unable to ee their homes were burned alive when security forces indiscriminately set re to villages as part of the military operation. There are even allegations of extrajudicial executions with the Special Intervention Forces involved. (Amnesty International 19/11)

judges, in a brief court appearance on November 12th. Al-Baghdadi al-Mahmudi is accused of committing prejudicial acts against the security of the state and nancial crimes. The trial was adjourned until December 10th. (AFP,
Tripoli 12/11)

Political Killings: The body of Abdelbasset bin Naama, a member of the transitional council that governed the country after the ouster of Gaddafy, was found on November 5th in Tripoli. He had been shot in the head and his body mutilated. The prosecutor general said a special committee had been created to probe the death. Bin Naama was one of the founding members of a rebel brigade in Tarhuna, 120 km southeast of Tripoli, and had fought to free his town from the former regime. In a separate incident in the eastern city of Benghazi, the body of retired colonel Abdelkarim Mahfud, who had joined the 2011 revolt in its early stages, was discovered on his farm. ( AFP, Tripoli
6/11 2012) Deadly clashes p. 19458

MALI
Touaregs Battle Islamists Momentum to reclaim the north grows but attempts to bring Ansar Dine and the Touareg MNLA on side provoke disagreement.
Dozens of people some of them unarmed were killed in a remote part of northern Mali as Islamist ghters backed by al-Qaeda in the Land of the
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Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) routed Touareg rebels, AFP (20/11) quoted a security source as saying on November 20th. The Malian security source called the killings a real massacre and said the bodies of some of those slain in violence that began on November 16th still dotted the arid village of Menaka, in the northeastern Gao region, just above the Niger border. Unarmed people were shot in cold blood, the source said. There needs to be a genuine international investigation to nd out what happened at Menaka. Other witnesses and ghters conrmed that dozens had been killed. The latest violence in northern Mali, in the hands of Islamist rebels since shortly after a March coup in Bamako, comes amid growing international momentum to reclaim the sparsely populated desert land. A hodgepodge of Islamist and Touareg groups, some homegrown, others foreign, have seen alliances rise and falter in the months of chaos. A small but well armed network of extremists has continued to dig in across Malis lawless desert. The strength of the core ghters from various nationalities of all movements is estimated to be between 2,500 and 3,000 coming from Africa, Europe and Asia, an ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) battle document said. A list of weapons available to them included anti-aircraft guns and surfaceto-air missiles. Several dozen Algerian jihadists arrived in Timbuktu to reinforce the AQLIM camp, who have toughened their application of strict Islamic law, AFP (25/11) quoted a security source as saying. He added that the fabled city of Timbuktu was increasingly becoming the headquarters of AQLIM in northern Mali. Timbuktu residents said sharia law in the city was being tightened with televisions conscated and women not wearing veils arrested. Africa Report (29/10) said hundreds of jihadists from northern African countries and Sudan had been ocking into northern Mali but the MNLA denied the reports. Starting on November 16th, local Touareg rebels who want to establish the independent homeland called Azawad battled with the Islamist group, the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is backed by AQLIM. The ghting was focused in Ansongo, about 200 km west of Menaka, and in Menaka itself, where the Touareg rebels had hoped to establish a base from which to launch counter-offensives against the Islamists.
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A lawmaker for the Menaka district, Bajan Ag Hamato, said some of his fellow Touareg had been killed defending the town against MUJAO, including local political leader Alwabegat Ag Salakatou and six of his entourage. He said that although they had been labelled as members of the Touareg rebels Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA), in reality they were local patriots who wanted to defend their town. It was not immediately possible to conrm who had been killed in the violence. A security source from Niger said four seriously injured MNLA ghters had been evacuated to Nigers capital Niamey. The MNLA had previously claimed its ghters killed 65 MUJAO and AQLIM members, suffering just one death and 13 injuries on its side, but MUJAO said it killed more than 100 MNLA ghters and took 20 prisoners. The ghting picked up again on November 19th as the Islamist groups were bolstered by reinforcements, witnesses told AFP, saying the MNLA were chased from the town. A regional security source on November 20th said the Islamists controlled most of Menaka. The MNLA initially fought alongside the Islamist groups now controlling northern Mali, but the more secular Touareg ghters were soon sidelined. Mauritanian analyst Cheikh Ould Mohamed Harma said that the MNLA in particular wants today more than ever to attract attention to itself as an effective force in combating terrorism in the Azawad region so as to impose itself as a part of solution to the Malian crisis. MUJAO is currently going through a crisis, and is heading towards demobilisation and a split, Nigerien Foreign Minister Mohamed Bazoum said November 14th in Paris. Bazoums comments
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came just days after a senior leader from the terror group defected, handing himself in to Nigerien authorities in Niamey. Hicham Bilal was once the MUJAO commander in Gao, Magharebia.com reported (19/11) (see box). Also on November 20th, one person was killed and three others injured as a rocket-propelled grenade they were carrying accidentally exploded in the courtyard of Iyad Ag Ghaly, the leader of Ansar Dine, according to an elected ofcial from the Kidal region north of Gao. ( AFP, Bamako 20/11 2012; Magharebia.com 19/11)

West African Security Plan Agreed No one could accuse West Africa of rushing into a war in northern Mali, commented Africa Condential (16/11). It is eight months since the putsch by dissident soldiers in Bamako against President Amadou Toumani Tour and e the subsequent takeover of the north by jihadist militias. It was not until November 11th that ECOWAS met in Abuja and nally agreed to send in troops: 3,300 from Nigeria, Niger, Senegal and Burkina Faso. They will ght beside the 5,000 Malian soldiers who will lead the campaign to reconquer the three northern provinces: Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal. France, Britain and Germany are offering 200 military trainers and air support. Neighbouring Algeria and Mauritania wont join the campaign but have promised not to obstruct it and may help with logistics, Africa Condential said. News agencies added that attempts to esh out combat plans have snagged on the reluctance of some countries to pitch their troops into a conict with no obvious exit strategy, insiders added. Algeria, a key regional power, had not warmed to the idea of intervention, an Ecowas negotiator said. Although they are not members of ECOWAS, Algeria and Mauritania share thousands of kilometres of borders with Mali across the Sahara. They also both have substantial and vital desert training, military ofcials say. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton travelled to Algiers on October 29th to press the authorities to support the ECOWAS initiative. But Algiers still hopes dialogue will succeed. Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci said on November 20th that it was Malians who would only reap adverse results from a military intervention. The military plan has been accepted by ECOWAS and the Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AU). AU Commission Chair, Nkosazana DlaminiZuma, was in Paris in late November meeting top ofcials at the same time as
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Nigers President, Mahamadou Issoufou, who had already toured Europe to alert governments to the growing security threats in the Sahel. Next stop was the United Nations (UN) Security Council, which asked to see the detailed plan by November 26th. It is also expected to back it unanimously and offer nance. France wants the soldiers to move as soon as possible, Britain and the United States argue for better if lengthier preparation. Military action is unlikely before January at the earliest, Africa Condential said. UN special envoy for the Sahel region Romano Prodi said, however, experts thought it could take until September 2013 for troops to be ready for deployment, AFP reported (19/11). It is necessary to prepare for military action to be credible. My mission is to do everything to ensure peace and avoid war, the former Italian premier said. This timeline was conrmed by a Bamako-based diplomat, citing season rains. The majority view is that military intervention is unlikely to take place before September. Before then, the more people who can be removed from the battleeld through negotiations, the better, he said. European Union (EU) Foreign ministers on November 19th agreed in principle to support the ECOWAS plan and to send a military training mission to Mali. Under the plan, some 250 European ofcers would be sent to train Malian combat units and help restructure the countrys weakened army in a mission that could start as early as January and last through the year. The training mission, to cost some 5 to 6m year, would run in conjunction with the ECOWAS/AU plan. (Sources as
referenced in text)

Talk and/or Fight? The difcult balancing act to try and restore state authority is a mix of attempted negotiations and a military operation. While some have presented the military intervention as a fait accompli, divisions still remain on whether it is the best solution. The ECOWAS plan is for a two-pronged approach. Romano Prodi said, after talks with Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteika, it was a last resort, Algerian news agency, APS reported (8/11). We still have the chance to work for peace, Prodi was quoted as saying. Facing the spectre of military action, both the MNLA and Ansar Dine, have said they are ready for talks the Ansar Dine called on November 6th for other ghters to join it in political dialogue and said it rejects all forms of extremism and terrorism. But the Touaregs
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weakened position could hamper any bid for a peaceful resolution and there have been no contacts for talks with Mujao and AQLIM. Observers have warned that divisions in the region over how to act pose significant challenges to a military intervention. Malis other signicant neighbour, Mauritania, like Algeria, favours called for dialogue to solve the crisis. There is also a lack of cohesion in Bamako, where an interim regime has failed to assert itself and the former junta holds signicant sway. ECOWAS is pushing the Mali government to offer the MNLA autonomy in exchange for joining the ght against the hardline al Qaeda-linked terrorists. It also hopes to persuade moderate members of Ansar Dine to join forces with the Touaregs. Burkinabe Foreign Minister Djibril Bassol, mediating between the Mali gove ernment and northern-based groups, said: Mali cannot accept the imposition of sharia [law] through arms. But they can look at a form of autonomy, decentralisation or power-sharing if Ansar Dine and the MNLA lay down their weapons. Both groups have reiterated their willingness to cooperate with the government on that basis. The idea is that after the liberation of the north, Mali will give Azawad some autonomy. The most likely model is [neighbouring] Niger, where the Touaregs of Agadez and Zindar are semiautonomous, said a senior ECOWAS negotiator who conrmed the plan had been tabled. A spokesman for Ansar Dine, Sanad Ould Bouamama, told Al-Arabiya (6/11) that external military intervention risks turning northern Mali into another Somalia. He said France should take the blame if negotiations failed. French President Francois Hollande said he opposed talks with groups linked to terrorism in Malis north, but did not specify to which groups he was referring. Hollande was speaking after meeting President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz of Mauritania, AFP reported. One of the many problems with granting the Touaregs any kind of autonomy in exchange for their support is that it could embolden dozens of separatist movements across West Africa, the Guardian, London, pointed out (22/11). Similar separatist groups in the region, such as Moroccos Polisario Front and Senegals Casamance militants, who have fought hard to redraw Africas colonial borders, will be following the developments closely.
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Mali in Brief
2nd: Ansar Dine sends delegations to Algeria and Burkina Faso to hold peace talks. 6th: Ansar Dine, which has occupied key cities such as Timbuktu for seven months, calls for dialogue and a halt to hostilities. A jihadist described as French-African arrested in the centre of Mali allegedly seeking to join the armed extremists has been identied by France as Ibrahim Aziz Ouattara. He was travelling on false documents and freely expressed his wish to die a martyr. Regional security sources warn that French citizens or Africans living in Europe are attempting to sign up with the jihadists. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton visits Algiers to discuss Mali, on the second leg of a tour to press European concerns about security in the region. 7th: Ansar Dine spokesman Mohamed Ag Aharid warns in Ouagadougou that any military intervention in Mali would set the region ablaze. 8th: Ex-Guinean transitional leader General Sekouba Konate, who is supervising military preparation, meets chief regional mediator Burkina Fasos Blaise Compaore to discuss the juxtaposition of the military intervention and the ongoing dialogue. Red Cross says in Geneva that some 500,000 people can no longer sustain themselves in north Mali amid security risks, food shortages and the breakdown of political structures. Hicham Bilal, head of a MUJAO katiba (batallion) says he has defected and returned to his home country of Niger, slamming the extremists he worked with as lunatics. Bilal spoke to AFP from Niamey where he says he is in the hands of authorities, saying many of the men from his brigade had defected with him. A katiba can count up to 100 ghters. These lunatics from MUJAO are not children of God, they are drug trafckers. They do everything which goes against Islam and to them, a black man is inferior to an Arab or a white, he said. 11th: West African leaders at an emergency summit agree on a 3,300-strong force to wrest control of northern Mali from Islamist extremists as fears grow over risks they pose to the region and beyond. 12th: Algeria renews its call for a political solution. We have not stopped emphasising that a way out of the crisis, through dialogue between the Malian authorities and the rebel groups in the north, is completely possible, Foreign ministry spokesman Amar Belani said. 13th: Religious leaders from Algeria, Mali, Niger, Mauritania and Nigeria launch the League of the Ulemas of the Sahel in respnse to the Mali crisis in order to preach peace in the region. The League unequivocally condemned AQLIM, MUJAO and Boko Haram. 14th: Ansar Dine says for the rst time it is ready to help rid the region of terrorism and foreign groups. It renounces the goal of imposing sharia across Mali, saying it only wanted to keep it in its stronghold of Kidal. 15th: Foreign and Defence ministers from ve European countries Germany, Poland, Spain, Italy and France meet to discuss a European mission aimed at training Malian troops. 16th: New ghting and a crackdown on women for not wearing veils by Islamist militants in Timbuktu mar peace moves by Ansar Dine and MNLA. Touareg warlord Moussa Ag Assarid says the MNLA has launched an offensive to retake the key north-central region of Gao from Islamist rebels. A Burkina security source said the MUJAO attacked some MNLA ghters and took a lot of prisoners and two vehicles. There were some dead. Blaise Compaore holds joint talks with Ansar Dine and the MNLA in Ouagadougou. 18th: Malian Prime Minister Cheick Modibo Diarra says that the government will eventually hold talks with Ansar Dine and the Touareg MNLA, because they are both homegrown movements and these people are our compatriots. AQLIM and MUJAO are both made up mainly of foreign ghters. MUJAO claims victory over the MNLA saying they have driven Touareg-led rebels out of the desert town of Menaka. 26th: Diarra arrives in France for talks on military intervention. (AFP, BBC News Online, PANA, Magharebia.com Nov)

ratists and Ansar Dine and giving carte blanche to these deserters and criminals who have the blood of hundreds of civilians and soldiers on their hands. Burkina Fasos Le Republicain newspaper (15/11) warned that Ansar Dine may be insincere in the negotiations. Frenchman Kidnapped: The delay in a planned international offensive came as French President Hollande conrmed a French national had been kidnapped on November 20th in the south-west Mali town of Kayes, near the border with Senegal and Mauritania. France has been using drones for surveillance in Mali but will not send ground troops. MUJAO spokesman Abu Walid Sahraoui said the group claimed responsibility for the kinapping of 61-year old Gilberto Rodriguez Leal, who was born in Portugal but is a French citizen. With Gods blessing, the mujahedin are holding a Frenchman, whose country wants to lead armies against the Muslim people, Abdoul Hicham, a top MUJAO leader, told AFP. The kidnapping brings to 13 the number of hostages held by hardline Islamists in the region: nine other Europeans, being held by AQLIM and three Algerians, abducted by MUJAO. Gilberto said he blamed Frances foreign policy for his abduction and urged Paris to respond to his captors demands, in a video shown on November 26th. The video, published by Mauritanian news website Alakhbar, showed a bespectacled, unshaven man with white hair anked by two men carrying ries and wearing beige uniforms, independent online news reported (26/11). Malis prime minister, Cheick Modibo Diarra, arrived in Paris on November 26th to hold talks with Foreign minister Laurent Fabius about the possible military intervention. (Sources as referenced in
text)

MNLA spokesperson Moussa Ag Acharatoumane said the group was willing to put differences on hold and unite in a military alliance against al-Qaeda afliates. Moderates could weaken Islamist groups by splintering them but the blaze of renewed ghting in late November highlighted the risks of backing any rebel group. Its a very, very delicate question who to let onside. Its a marriage of convenience but there are groups with vested interests who may work with the government now, turn against them tomorrow, an African diplomat also involved in the talks said.
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Meanwhile, a coalition of Malian political parties and a citizens association based in the Islamist-occupied north on November 25th objected to Algeria and Burkina Fasos role in mediating their countrys crisis, saying they were giving too much leeway to the armed groups. The Union of Patriotic Democrats for the End of the Crisis (ADPS) a coalition of political parties and associations demanded that Malis interim government ofcially and publically reject Burkinabe President Blaise Compaores role as chief mediator. The group accused Compaore of promoting the interests of Touareg sepaB

NIGERIA
Conditional Ceasere Offer The government is wary, concerned Boko Haram no longer acts as one entity.
A man claiming to be speaking on behalf of Jamaatu Ahlis Sunnah Liddaawati wal Jihad (Boko Haram) told journalists in Maiduguri, via a teleconference he held on November 1st, that the sect was ready for a ceasere on four conditions, which included the release of all its members from detention, reported Daily Trust, Abuja (2/11).
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The man, who gave his name as Abu Muhammad Ibn Abdulaziz and is thought to be Boko Harams second in command, said the group was willing to lay down arms and dialogue through intermediaries. He said he was speaking on behalf of group leader Abubakar Shekau. His claim could not be authenticated because since the reported killing of the sects spokesman Abul Qaqa two months ago, the group has not contacted journalists through their usual means of sending emails and holding teleconferences. Abu Abdulaziz listed the four ceasere conditions as follows:
 Payment of compensation to the group and the rebuilding of their places of worship that were destroyed during the 2009 uprising;  Release of their detained members;  Prosecution of former Borno State governor Ali Sheriff; and  Rehabilitation of their families.

A signicant number of criminal activities are carried out in various parts of northern Nigeria and attributed to the sect but are later denied by the sects leadership. The government reasons therefore that any form of talks opened between it and Boko Haram might not yield the desired result as there were now established splinter groups that sometimes operated independently of the sects high command. Neither does the government trust some of the people proposed by the sect. Sunday Vanguard was led to understand that one of the persons proposed for the talks may have links with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) and, therefore, may not be trusted as a mediator. The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) objected to the inclusion of Buhari, querying what motive Boko Haram might have for putting him forward. It said in a statement: General Buhari, as I read in the newspapers, had said that if he was not declared president of Nigeria in 2011, he will make Nigeria ungovernable for Dr Goodluck Jonathan. Other people also said so. Buhari is said to have declined the offer to participate. The proposal may have been killed off almost immediately, however, by the murder of General Muhammed Shuwa (rtd). Gen Shuwa was shot dead at his home in Maiduguri. He is regarded by the Nigerian military as a war hero, and played a key role in crushing Biafran separatists during Nigerias brutal civil war in the 1960s. No group claimed the attack but the security forces came down heavily on potential Boko Haram supporters. They said the attack on Shuwa resembled those previously claimed by the group, who have often targetted notable government and military gures, and called into question the groups genuineness when stating a willingness for negotiations. In retaliation security forces killed a top Boko Haram commander, Ibn Saleh Ibrahim, in the north-eastern city of Maiduguri, in an exchange of gunre, during which a number of civilians were also killed. The operation was supported by armoured personnel carriers and helicopters. Army spokesman Lt. Col. Sagir Musa claimed Mr Ibrahim had been responsible for the assassination of retired General Shuwa following an order from Mr Shekau.
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Fear gripped Maiduguri on November 3rd with young men eeing after the alleged execution style killings of around 40 young men, mostly teenagers, who residents said were rounded up and shot. Residents spoke of a heavy military presence and said that various town neighbourhoods had been under siege since the death of Shuwa. They said troops conducted raids in Maiduguri, separated males in their teens and twenties from older men and shot them, reported AFP (3/11). While some urged government to go ahead with the dialogue, others cautioned against the idea saying it would be counter-productive. The Presidency is reported, however, by Vanguard (4/ 11) to have said that if the Boko Haram sect is genuinely ready for dialogue to end the spate of suicide bomb attacks in many parts of Northern Nigeria, the Federal Government will oblige the group but not with unjust preconditions. Boko Harams demand for the release of their detained members as a precondition for the negotiation is not acceptable. Amnesty International charged Nigerias security forces with committing massive rights violations, including summary executions, in their campaign to crush the Islamists. PANA said Nigeria had rejected the allegations. In its report AI documented a series of alleged extra-judicial killings by the military and police in Maiduguri, saying such conduct had fuelled further attacks and deepened a cycle of violence. A suicide attacker drove a car bomb into a Nigerian church on October 28th, sparking erce reprisals that saw a Christian mob burn a man alive in a day of violence that killed at least 10 people and wounded 145. Christian youths took to the streets of the northern city of Kaduna with machetes and sticks after the blast, targeting those they believed to be Muslims as anger again boiled over due to repeated church bombings in recent months. Nigerians have grown increasingly frustrated with security forces inability to stop Boko Haram attacks, and there have been warnings of more reprisals if the violence continued. Some Evangelical church leaders in Nigeria have said Christians may be forced to defend themselves if something is not done to address the unrest. A Kaduna-based rights activist, Shehu Sani, issued a statement after the violence saying our churches and mosques
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He said as soon as the conditions were met, the group would cease re and be ready for a meeting with the Federal Government which should be held in Saudi Arabia, to nalise issues relating to dialogue and full restoration of peace. He said the government should nominate former military head of state and presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) General Muhammadu Buhari; Dr Shettima Monguno; a former Yobe State Governor, Bukar Ibrahim; Ambassador Gaji Galtimari; Aisha Alkali Wakil, and her husband, Alkali, as trusted Nigerians with whom it would be ready to negotiate. The spokesman added that the group had mandated four members, besides himself, to mediate on its behalf: Abu Abbas; Sheikh Ibrahim Yusuf; Sheikh Sani Kontogora; and Mamman Nur, the alleged mastermind of the 2011 bombing of the UN in Abuja (Vol. 48, p. 18954). In an initial reaction to the reported offer of dialogue, Presidential spokesman Reuben Abati said, If what the proposed ceasere is intended to achieve are the objectives of peace and security, then it is a welcome development. Within days, however, it became apparent that the Federal Government had considerable misgivings. When President Goodluck Jonathans predecessor, Umaru Musa YarAdua tried to strike a deal with the then edgling sect by releasing some of its members, the sect regrouped and re-launched its offensive, said Sunday Vanguard (4/4). Another factor affecting the governments decision is the belief that the leadership of Boko Haram may not be in total control of some of the members.
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Africa Research Bulletin 19499

have now become a hostile arena for deranged and murderous psychopaths. The government of Nigeria must wake up and live up to its duties and constitutional responsibilities, he said. We must nd a lasting solution to this carnage and arbitrariness ( AFP 28/
10).

Onwuka said the life and property of the Biafran people were no longer safe and guaranteed in Nigeria, hence their resolve to re-declare their independence with effect from November 5th, 2012.
(The Vanguard, Enugu 6/11)

RWANDA
Eight Years for Ingabire All key opposition leaders are now either in jail or exile.
The jailing of opposition politician Victoire Umuhoza Ingabire, who was seen as the last standing real opposition member, has raised concerns that the government is stiing democracy. The High Court in Kigali handed Ms Ingabire, the head of the yet-to-be registered Union of Democratic ForcesInkingi (FDU Inkingi), eight years in jail. She was convicted of two counts of genocide denial and conspiracy and planning to cause state insecurity, and was acquitted of four other charges that included genocide ideology, promoting ethnic divisionism and supporting armed groups. The sentencing followed a two-year trial in which the prosecution had sought a life imprisonment sentence. High Court Judge Alice Rulisa, delivered the verdict in the case in which Ms Ingabire, along with four others, faced charges of terrorism, inciting citizens against the government, genocide denial and promoting the genocide ideology and ethnic divisions. Ms Ingabire joins Bernard Ntaganda, the former leader of Parti Sociale Imberakuri (PSI), who was sentenced to four years in jail for organising an illegal assembly and inciting divisions based on ethnicity, and Deo Mushayidi, serving a life sentence on charges related to terrorism, genocide denial and treason. Several other politicians, including former President Pasteur Bizimungu and Charles Ntakirutinka, have been imprisoned for criticising the government and later released on pardon or after serving time. Mr Bizimungu and Mr Ntakirutinka were charged under the same laws. With Ms Ingabires jailing, key opposition members in Rwanda are now either in jail or living outside Rwanda, something Human Rights Watch (HRW) says conrms fears that the government is increasingly becoming intolerant of dissenting voices. The prosecution of Ingabire for genocide ideology and divisionism illustrates the Rwandan governments unwillingness to accept the role of opposition
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It is not always clear whether the attacks are the work of Boko Haram, or what motivated them. On November 11th gunmen killed ve Christians, who were ethnic Igbos, in Gaidam in volatile Yobe state. They could have been killed either for being Christian or Igbo ( AFP 11/
11).

In Nasarawa State renewed violence was ethnic. About 10 persons and the district head of Gidan-Rai, Zhe Meri, were killed in Agyaragu as relations between two ethnic groups, Eggon and Alago, degenerated into clashes (This Day 23/11). Rebirth of Biafra On November 5th police arrested 101 alleged members of a secessionist movement based in the countrys southeast in the latest such sweep in the region, authorities said. According to police, the alleged members of the Biafra Zionist Movement (BZM) were found in possession of secessionist emblems. They had staged a march in the city of Enugu, a major town in the southeast, early in the day. A magistrates court in Enugu remanded in custody the suspects who were earlier arrested for illegal assembly, police spokesman Ebere Amaraizu told AFP. He said that BZM was a faction of the banned Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB). ( AFP, Lagos 5/11) Among those arrested was the leader of BZM, Benjamin Onwuka. His group is a faction of the Ralph Uwazuruike-led MASSOB. The two pro-Biafra organisations have been having a strained relationship since the formation of the new group. Onwuka, who proclaimed himself the president of the Biafran Republic, said the ministers who would conduct the affairs of his government would be announced in due course. After a rally that lasted for about an hour, Onwuka and his members, mostly elderly men in their 60s, embarked on a peaceful procession to Ogbete Main Market area acknowledging cheers from residents and motorists along the road.

parties in a democratic society. The courts should not be used for such political purposes, said Daniel Bekele, Africa director of HRW. The rights group accused Rwanda of using anti-genocide laws to crush dissent, with all the politicians in question charged under the same laws. It noted that the government has a duty to prevent hate speech. However, the responsibility to prevent violence should not be used as an excuse for stiing criticism or prohibiting discussion of certain events nor should it be invoked as a pretext for delaying democratic reforms, said Mr Bekele. Rwandas Minister of Justice Tharcisse Karugarama, who is also the Attorney General, said, It should be noted that it was a total of six charges and she was acquitted on four after thorough investigations and analysis of evidence. HRW argues that the sentencing of Ms Ingabire means that there is no functioning opposition party, with the ruling party, the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) dominating the political scene without any meaningful challenge from other parties represented in parliament. Two types of opposition groupings exist in Rwanda, with the one serving in a coalition with the ruling party not considered true opposition while the stronger ones led by Ingabire have all had run-ins with the government and the law. Ms Ingabires FDU-Inkingi has been unable to register as a political party, despite several attempts before the 2010 elections. Mr Ntagandas PSI split into two, with one part registered and the other remaining loyal to the detained politician. Christine Mukabunani, the leader of the registered breakaway PS Imberakuri told The EastAfrican that opposition does not mean to break the laws of a country as they are bigger than individuals or parties. When the actions of opposition are deemed to be against the law, it is up the court to decide. Our job is to criticise the government but not to ght laws, Ms Mukabunani, also the spokesperson of the political parties forum said. In April 2012, Ms Ingabire boycotted her trial mid-way through proceedings, after the court cut short a witness who accused the Rwandan authorities of rigging evidence against her, citing lack of independence of the courts. But the government dismissed Ingabires claims as baseless, at a time when the sector has been boosted by the international community restoring condence, sending several cases to be tried there. (The
East African, Nairobi 6/11) C

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As well as HRW, the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) and Amnesty International denounced the numerous irregularities that marred the fairness of the trial. Upon hearing the verdict pronounced by the High Court panel, Ian Edwards, a British attorney who worked on Ingabires defence team, said she would appeal. We thought she would be acquitted of all charges, but we will appeal, rst to the Supreme Court and then, if that fails, we will go to the African Court on Human and Peoples Rights, he said, referring to a court based in the Tanzanian city of Arusha. ( AFP, Nairobi 3/11) During the ruling, Rulisa averred that the judges took into account a letter written by Ingabire, to President Paul Kagame seeking clemency. It is in this letter that the three-person panel found a mitigating factor, thereby reducing her jail term to eight, saying she had expressed remorse for the actions for which she was convicted. The FDU condemned the conviction, claiming the court process was marred by intimidation, interferences and unfairness. Prosecutor-General Martin Ngoga acknowledged, however, that the prosecution was unhappy with the eight-year jail term handed to Victoire Ingabire by the High Court. Ngoga did not explicitly say they would appeal against the verdict, saying they were still weighing the options. As a party to the case, we too have the right to challenge it (the decision) at a higher level, said Ngoga, in an exclusive interview held in his ofce in Kigali. (The
New Times website, Kigali 2/11)

getting in trouble. Stanley was charged on three counts: spreading divisionism, demeaning women and creating division between men and women in general. The CPJ recalled that Umusingi had been a target in the past. In February 2011, the newspapers website was temporarily blocked after it published an interview with the dissident Rwandan General exiled in South Africa, Kayumba Nyamwasa. Its founder and former director, Nelson Gatsimbazi, ed the country in August 2011 after being informed of his imminent arrest on accusation of divisionism based on a complaint lodged by another journalist in 2008. (RNA news agency, Kigali 12/11)

SOMALIA
Road to Baidoa Amisom is hoping to keep Al Shabaab on the back foot.
On the road to Baidoa is the strategic town of Jowhar, which lies about 90 km north of the capital, Mogadishu, and is one of Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen (Al-Shabaabs) last major bastions in southern Somalia. The Somali National Armed Forces, backed by those of African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom), were therefore heading to Jowhar, the provincial capital of Middle Shabeelle Region, southern Somalia, at the end of October. Reports from the region, on November 18th, conrmed that AU-backed Somali government forces were on the verge of taking control of Jowhar. According to local radio, coalition forces had reached a locality 20km from the town. Some of the residents who spoke under condition of anonymity told the radio that tension is very high in the town , added the source. (Radio Dalsan, Mogadishu 18/11)

Islamist al Shabaab insurgents, the SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks the online activity of terrorist groups, reported on November 6th. Al Shabaab, battling the Westernbacked government, has in recent months suffered several major setbacks and lost key assets, including the southern port of Kismayo (p. 19463). This is a agrant Crusader invasion of the Muslim countries and it makes jihad obligatory on every Muslim who is capable in Somalia and its surroundings and in the rest of the world until the invaders are expelled, SITE quoted Zawahiri as saying. The website said al Shabaab, which is afliated to Al-Qaeda, had also posted several messages on the Internet vowing to intensify attacks in Mogadishu. Al Shabaab once controlled up to 80% of southern and central Somalia and the recent African offensive dashed their hopes of taking power. But analysts have warned that the group could do just as much damage by reverting to guerrilla tactics and carrying out targeted attacks. A string of suicide attacks and bomb blasts, a bomb blast rocked the parliament buildings on the 7th, have hit Mogadishu and other towns. ( AFP,
Nairobi 7/11)

Security analysts at the South Africanbased think tank, the Institute of Security Studies, are warning that the war against the terror group may be far from over. In a report on conict prevention and risk analysis in Africa released at the end of October, the Pretoria-based group says the celebration over the fall of Kismayo may have been premature. The report says all indications were that remnants of the terror group that have been targeting Kenya in its revenge attacks (p. 19493), were planning a new round of war in their bid to retake the coastal city. The ISS analysts are now calling for new tactics to stop the terror group from waging fresh battle. There are indications that al Shabaab is planning to resort to unconventional warfare methods, including deploying suicide bombers and other guerrilla tactics, to make the area ungovernable. The experts say the people of Kismayo remain concerned that al Shabaab has simply blended into the local population. The ISS group further observes that Kenyan troops and Amisom face the challenge of securing Kismayo, as al Shabaab left booby traps and unexploded improvised explosive devices, which are not always easy to identify.
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The umbrella body of genocide survivors, Ibuka (Kinyarwanda for Remember), also protested that the eight years jail term was too short, saying the High Court ignored the gravity of the offences for which she was convicted. (The New
Times, Kigali 3/11)

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri urged all Muslims to support Somalias

Journalist Jailed The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has called for the release of journalist Gatera Stanley who was sentenced to one year in jail and ned 30,000 Rwandan francs (US$50) for inciting divisionism. The CPJ urged the court of appeal to overturn the ruling and release the journalist who has been detained since August 2012 for an article deemed discriminatory. Gatera Stanley, the chief-editor of [Kinyarwanda language] newspaper Umusingi, was arrested following the publication of an article entitled How men pursuing Tutsi women because of their beauty risk
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DJIBOUTI SOMALIA ETHIOPIA Baidoa KENYA Nairobi (bbc.co.uk)


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The KDF is currently busy removing such devices from the town. It remains to be seen what al Shabaab will do next, but it is probable that it will move on to bigger towns, and start engaging in unconventional warfare, wrote the ISS team. According to ISS, the African Union forces immediate challenge is to keep Kismayo under control, and to win the hearts and minds of the people. The experts say the war in Somalia may be taking a new turn that Amisom has not even seen the beginning of yet. (The
Standard website, Nairobi 27/10)

Armed clashes reportedly broke out in Kismayo on November 23rd. Witnesses said heavily armed unknown militias stormed bases manned by Kenyan forces in the heart of the city during the night, causing unconrmed human losses. Local residents reported that the attack raged on for several hours and the Kenyan army managed to fend off the assault from their positions. Since the city fell, such attacks against the coalition troops have been on the rise. (Shabelle media network 24/11) Kenyan Deance Disputes over politics and money, especially income from Kismayo and Mogadishu ports, threaten President Hassan Sheikh Mohamuds new order, said Africa Condential. Kenyas deance of the Somali government on the ban on charcoal exports from Kismayo threatens the cohesion of Amisom. It will also test the mettle of the UN Monitoring Group, which has to decide if Kenya has deed the UN Security Council Resolutions and should be sanctioned. On paper, Kenya is now a fully participating, although late-arriving, member of Amisom and its generals sit alongside those from Uganda and Burundi (and Mogadishus own ofcers) in planning and strategy sessions. So do Ethiopias ofcers, although they refuse to accept the constraints of joining Amisom and deploy their forces at will. The position of Kenya is more complex still. In recent weeks, the KDF in Kismayo have outed the charcoal export ban and allowed Kenyan companies, such as SIFA, linked to the nephew of the Deputy Speaker, Farah Maalim Mohamed (Ogaden/Awlihan) to prot from such exports. Kenya is allowing Somali charcoal exports, although President Mohamud has expressly forbidden them, and most experts believe that businesses linked to Al Shabaab will benet. It seems that the
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KDF wants to help its Ras Kamboni allies to raise money through charcoal export taxes; Kenyan business people and some KDF ofcers are also believed to be earning commissions. A lack of action on charcoal could undermine Amisoms position. It could also be used by Al Shabaab to support its claims that the real aim of Kenyas forces in Somalia is to grab land. Hassan Sheikh seems short of new ideas about how to handle the conict in Kismayo. He may also become hostage to his Hawiye clan politics, just as he needs to prove himself as a national leader. If the Kismayo conict ares again over the distribution of commercial spoils and Madobes leadership style, that would provide Al Shabaab with a golden opportunity to rebuild support in Lower Juba. (Africa Condential 16/11) Journalists Targetted Somalias journalists are reeling from a string of attacks; including assassinations as well as those caught up in bomb blasts or killed reporting on frontline battles against al Shabaab. Even two comedians who poked fun at the Islamists have been murdered. Several killings are blamed on al Shabaab, but other murders are also believed to be linked to struggles within the multiple factions in power. International press rights groups have repeatedly voiced their concern, with Reporters Without Borders (RSF) warning Somalia cannot continue to be abandoned to the killers who are decimating civil society. It has called 2012 the deadliest year on record, with a toll of 16 killed. In the war-ravaged streets of Mogadishu, there seems little end in sight to the wave of killings. Journalists are constantly targeted and being killed, said Ibrahim Mohamed, from the Somali National Union of Journalists. What worries us most is that the crimes are done with impunity nobody has been tried for the murders, Mohamed said, adding that seven journalists have ed into exile since September alone, while others have quit their jobs. ( AFP,
Baidoa 2/11)

vately-owned Shabelle website reported on November 21st. (Shabeelle Media Network website, Mogadishu 21/11)

SOUTH SUDAN
Human Rights Warning A weak legal system and recourse to the death penalty is causing concern.
Rights groups sent a letter to South Sudans Foreign Minister Nhial Deng Nhial asking for the worlds newest UN member to vote for a moratorium on the death penalty at an upcoming meeting, because aws in its legal system cannot guarantee the basic rights of people being sentenced to death. South Sudan has continued to use the death penalty despite well-documented weaknesses in the countrys legal system, which prevent it from ensuring the basic legal rights of people accused of crimes, Amnesty International (AI), Human Rights Watch (HRW) and local civil society groups said on November 6th in a joint statement. The rights groups say the vast majority of around 200 death row inmates shackled and crowded into cramped and dirty cells never had a lawyer, leaving many unable to adequately prepare their defence or to appeal convictions. The groups are also concerned about the lack of information about those sentenced to death, their trials and executions. South Sudan is in a process of building its police force and judiciary from scratch. While over two thirds of the UNs 137 members and the African Unions 54 states have abolished the death penalty, most recently Burundi, C^te dIvoire, o Gabon, Rwanda, Senegal and Togo, South Sudan is among the few that still practises it. ( AFP, Juba 5/11) The US Department of State voiced concern about the expulsion of UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISSs) human rights investigators. The Juba government expelled three UNMISS staff in October, for releasing an unveried human rights violation report. UNMISS described the decision as a violation of South Sudans commitments to the UN charter. Human rights monitoring, investigation and reporting are the core element of the UNMISS mandate. (Miraya FM website, Juba 7/11) Security Tightened Meanwhile security is still being tightened after coup rumours (p. 19464). A source close to the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) says there was no plot, only anger about dismissals and relocation of
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The Somali president has ordered that a commission to investigate the killing of journalists be set up. (Radio Daljir, Gaalkacyo 24/11)

Ugandan Troops: Throughout November there was talk of Uganda pulling out its troops from Somalia. It was with relief that the US lauded Ugandas extended role in restoring peace in Somalia, priB

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troops after budget cuts caused by the loss of most government revenue after Januarys suspension of oil production. If there was a plot, said an SPLA source, it was foiled at a very early stage. Military Intelligence has been busy, trying to ascertain the source of the rumours. Ofcers swept across Jonglei, then moved to Malakal, interrogating and arresting suspects. Many soldiers, including some MI ofcers, are detained or under house arrest, Africa Condential was told. Many politicians were called in by President Salva Kiir Mayardit or their state governors and warned. Those too powerful to accept a warning were put under surveillance. (Africa Condential 2/11)

an exchange of communications in connection with the matter, to save the country from anarchy, said the minister. He added, The relevant authorities gathered evidence which showed intention to create instability and target Sudans leaders. What is happening does not pose any threat to the stability of the country nor does it have any extension within the army, or security, or popular defence, the minister assured. The thwarted attempt did not exceed the stage of communication among the plotters who were arrested, said Qutbi Al-Mahdi, member of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) Leadership Ofce. He added that only a limited number of people were involved in the move and it did not reect divisions within the party. He afrmed that Mr Gosh had been previously sacked from the party and was no longer anything to do with it. Al-Mahdi said that none of the partys leaders was complicit in the coup. (Sudan Vision website, Khartoum 22/11)

SUDAN
Sabotage Plot Foiled Ex-spy chief and senior army ofcers are arrested on suspicion of inciting chaos.
Sudans National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) announced on November 22nd it had foiled a sabotage plot aimed at bringing about security disturbances in the country led by gures from the opposition forces. The brief statement carried around 5a.m. local time by Sudanese Media Center website, that is believed to be run by NISS, quoted a security source as saying that arrests were made that included civilian and military individuals. (Sudan Tribune, Khartoum 22/11) The government later announced that 13 servicemen and civilians had been arrested. Salah Gosh, former head of the intelligence and security agency, was arrested on suspicion of inciting chaos, targeting some leaders and spreading rumours about President Omar Hassan Ahmed al-Bashirs health. Other detainees included Maj-Gen Adil Al-Tayyib from military intelligence, and Brig Muhammad Ibrahim Abd-al-Jalil, known as Wad Ibrahim. They were accused of planning to incite chaos in Sudan at a very sensitive time, the Information and Culture Minister Ahmed Bilal Uthman, said. The situation is now totally stable. Witnesses described seeing armoured vehicles and troops in the tightly controlled centre of the capital, Khartoum, in the early hours of November 22nd, although news agencies said there was no increase in security later on. The plot was orchestrated to take place earlier but was delayed to November 22nd, Bilal Uthman said at a news conference. The government decided to nip this attempt in the bud as a precautionary measure, after observing
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months, said the African Union-United Nations Mission in Darfur (UNAMID). Rebels from the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) said earlier that on November 9th they attacked a large government convoy travelling north from Shangil Tobay, which is about 50 kilometres (30 miles) south of El Fasher, the state capital of North Darfur. They said they captured one armoured vehicle and destroyed others, while seizing trucks and cars as well as equipment, weapons and ammunition. JEM said its forces worked with the Sudan Liberation Army (SLAs) Minni Minnawi faction in the attack which captured a number of government troops and inicted heavy losses. Since July, civilians have been increasingly at risk from inter-communal ghting, harassment by militia groups

Tanzania Sheikh Ponda Refused Bail


Police in Dar es Salaam on November 2nd used tear gas to disperse groups of Muslims attempting to hold demonstrations aimed at seeking the release of controversial cleric Sheikh Ponda Issa Ponda. About a dozen people were arrested. Businesses around the city centre came to a standstill with hundreds of police ofcers and members of the military deployed to the streets. After Friday prayers, anti-riot police ordered the gathering would-be demonstrators off the streets using loudspeakers before lobbing tear-gas cannisters at those who deed their orders. The city has been tense following Octobers arrest of Ponda (p. 19465), the head of the Jumuiya ya wa Islamu, or the community of Islam, a group not recognised by the Tanzanian government. He is accused of inciting violence during October demonstrations in the economic capital Dar es Salaam. ( AFP, Dar es Salaam 2/11) Sheikh Ponda, Mkadam Swalehe and 49 followers appeared before the Kisutu Resident Magistrates Court for the second time on November 15th. Sheikh Ponda denied all charges in connection with committing conspiracy, trespass, criminal possession and stealing materials worth TShs59.6m from Agritanza Limited. Before the arraignment of Swalehe, Sheikh Ponda was facing the fth charge of inciting people to commit an offence alone. All accused persons were bailed except for Sheikh Ponda and Swalehe. The case was adjourned until November 29th, the day witnesses from the prosecution side were due to testify. (Tanzania Daily News 16/11)

Bashir has maintained a near 25-year hold on power, even as a series of uprisings troubled the countrys poor border areas, including the conict-torn region of Darfur. But Sudan has been stuck in economic crisis since the south, the source of most of its known oil-reserves, declared independence in 2011 under the terms of a peace deal. High prices for food and other basics have added to widespread public anger over losing the south and have emboldened opposition activists to call for protests. Analysts say the crisis has also exacerbated divisions in the government. Small demonstrations against cuts in fuel subsidies and other austerity measures broke out across Sudan in June (p. 19320) but decreased after a security crackdown and the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. (Al-Jazeera, Khartoum 22/11) Upsurge of Violence in Darfur Peacekeepers who reached the village of Sigili in Sudans Darfur, where 13 people were reportedly killed by a militia, found it deserted, with houses burnt and animals dead in the street, UNAMID reported on November 8th. International peacekeepers on November 12th expressed grave concern about an upsurge of violence in Sudans Darfur, after they airlifted people wounded in recent clashes. The ghting on November 9th between government forces and an armed group near Shangil Tobay is part of a larger pattern of conict in the area in recent
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and sporadic clashes between rebel and government troops, particularly in North Darfur, UN chief Ban Ki-moon said in a quarterly report issued on October 16th.. Though violence is down from its peak, various overlapping conicts continue in the form of banditry, inter-Arab and tribal disputes as well as governmentrebel clashes in the far-west region.
( AFP, Khartoum 8, 12, 18/11)

TUNISIA
State of Emergency Extended Ennahda vows to crack down on radical Salasts.
Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki extended the countrys state of emergency from November 1st through January, continuing special intervention powers for the police and army after a recent series of Islamist attacks. Extensions of the state of emergency, which has been in place since January 2011, had only been made for 30 days at a time since July. Authorities had pointed to the shortened extensions as a sign of improving security, but the announcement of a threemonth extension will likely raise fears of a deteriorating situation in Tunisia, which is still dealing with instability unleashed by the revolution. (Tunis Afrique Presse, Al-Jazeera 31/10)

attention to the injustice that we have suffered, Khamis al-Majeri, one of the groups leaders, told AFP. A Salast imam, Nasreddine Aloui, has declared war on Ennahda, Tunisias ruling Islamist party. Aloui has taken over as the new imam of the Ennour mosque in the Tunis suburb of Manouba, although he has not been sanctioned by the state, which holds the right to make appointments. His predecessor died of wounds sustained when he took part in a Salast attack on two police posts a week earlier. Religious Affairs Minister Nourredine elKhadmi said that Aloui had not been appointed by his ministry and was therefore illegitimate. He added that around 100 mosques in Tunisia are under the full control of Salasts, and rejected what he said was Alouis call to violence. Meanwhile, Abu Iyed, speaking for the Salast group Ansar al-Sharia (Partisans of Islamic Law), sought to defuse the controversy, saying Tunisia is not the place for holy war. Ennahda has vowed to crack down on the radical Salasts after being sharply criticised for failing to rein them in following a wave of violence that culminated in the embassy attack. ( AFP,
Tunis 6/11)

amnesty declared after the 2011 revolution. (ahram.org 17/11) After the latest death, a justice ministry ofcial said that three of the 56 Tunisian prisoners on hunger strike were in a more or less worrying condition, having refused to eat for exactly one month. Negotiations are taking place with the detainees, their families and civil society groups to persuade them to call off their hunger strike, he told AFP. ( AFP, Tunis
17/11)

IN BRIEF
Algeria: AQLIM-linked militants killed two soldiers in an ambush near Boumerdes on October 18th, El Watan reported. Le Soir dAlgerie said the ve militants belonged to an offshoot of AQLIM holed up in the mountainous Djerrah area. Eight men convicted of murdering businessman Hend Slimana have been sentenced to death by the court of Tizi Ouzou, the APS agency reported. Some of them had confessed to being members of AQLIM. ( AFP, Algiers 20,25/10) Burundi: At least nine gunmen were shot dead in clashes with security forces in late October, ofcials said on October 24th, with a new rebel group Murundi Peoples Front, the Saviours (FPM-Abatabazi) claiming nine soldiers were also killed and 17 wounded. Unidentied gunmen entered the town of Buganda, then went into Murwi from neighbouring DR Congo, Anselm Nsabimana, governor of northwestern Cibitoke region, said. Rebel deputy commander Ntwari Israel said the armed struggle to liberate the people of Burundi from the yoke imposed by [President] Pierre Nkurunziza had begun. ( AFP, Bujumbura 24/10 2012) The appeal hearing resumed on November 7th for journalist Hassan Ruvakuki jailed for life on terrorism charges for planning then documenting a rebel attack in the east of the country. ( AFP, Gitega 7/11; RFI 9/11) Cameroon: Security forces used teargas to disperse about a thousand opposition supporters in Douala on November 7th protesting against President Paul Biya as he marked 30 years in power. Opposition MP Jean Michel Nintcheu, said a large number of well-armed police and gendarmes deployed by the repressive regime of Biya used water cannon, teargas and other weapons to disperse and brutalise thousands of our activists. (NA, Douala 7/11) Central African Republic: A police ofcer and two civilians, including a child, were killed in an attack by armed men in the village of Libi near the capital Bangui, police said November 14th. An army vehicle transporting troops was also attacked, but the soldiers red back and forced the attackers to ee. ( AFP, Bangui 14/11) Republic of Congo: Torture has become routine and systematic in prisons and police stations, according to a November 2nd report by the Congolese Observatory for Human Rights (OCDH) based on a series of eld investigations OCDH conducted, with nanC

Hunger Strikers Die Mohamed Bakhti, a prominent gure in Tunisias Salast movement, died on November 17th, nearly two months after launching a hunger strike following his arrest for an attack on the US embassy, his lawyer said. His was the second death, after another member of the Islamist movement, Bechir Gholli, died two days earlier. The lawyer had warned that Bakhti, who was suffering from a brain haemmorrhage, was in critical condition for several days. Bakhti and Gholli started their hunger strike in late September, days after their arrest for the September 14th attack. They insisted they were innocent and protested over the conditions of detention, while the Salast movement charged it was being victimised by the authorities. Bakhti was considered a senior gure in the jihadist movement and close to Abu Iyad, the alleged organiser of the embassy attack who is on the run. He was jailed for 12 years in 2007 for bloody clashes between the army and Islamists in Soliman, near Tunis, under Ben Alis regime but released under an
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Hundreds of Salasts demonstrated in Tunis on November 6th to demand the release of those detained in sweeping arrests in recent months, especially after a September attack on the US embassy (p. 19434). We are not extremists, we are Muslims, shouted the demonstrators, gathered outside the justice ministry amid heavy security. The Salasts, who follow an ultraorthodox form of Sunni Islam, claim they are victims of repression. They say around 900 fellow hardliners have been detained since an uprising ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011, followed by an amnesty for political prisoners, notably Islamists. The justice ministry denies that gure, saying 150200 people have been arrested in connection with violence blamed on the Islamists, most of them following the US embassy attack, in which four of the assailants were killed. We are the most committed to reform; we protect the security and interests of our country. As proof of this, we have come here today to draw the worlds
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19504 Africa Research Bulletin cial support from the European Union (EU), between 2010 and 2012. The accusations are rejected by the government, which said, Congo has signed and ratied the convention against torture and inhuman and degrading treatment. (IRIN, Brazzaville 7/11) Equatorial Guinea: A human rights lawyer who was detained in the notorious Black Beach prison after visiting a client was freed after being held in solitary connement for nine days. Fabian Nsue had gone to the prison in Malabo to visit Agustin Esono Nzogo Nsang, a schoolmaster with ties to the opposition who was arrested in October on what the opposition says are trumped-up charges of embezzlement. ( AFP, Libreville 5/11) The Gambia: Former Foreign Minister Mamboury Njie, who was sacked in late August after only four months in the job, was released on police bail from jail on November 5th after being arrested the previous week, police said. Local media suggested he was red for criticising President Yahya Jammehs decision to execute nine death row inmates in August, which prompted an international outcry. ( AFP, Banjul 5/11 2012) Malawi: A former top aide of late president Bingu wa Mutharika and a policeman have been arrested for the murder of student activist Robert Chasowa who was killed in 2011, a police spokesman said. Noel Masangwi, a top ofcial of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was arrested together with ve others, including police ofcer Stanford Horea. ( AFP, Blantyre 24/10 2012) Morocco: German police have arrested a man in connection with a deadly suicide bombing in Casablanca in 2003 that left 45 people dead, including the 12 bombers, and many injured. The suspect, reported to be a 37-year-old French national of Moroccan origin, was detained at Munich airport after Rabat issued an international arrest warrant. (BBC News Online 30/10) Eight people suspected of plotting attacks against strategic sites were arrested November 5th, less than a week after the kingdom announced it had dismantled a terrorist cell. The latest arrests targeted a group called Ansar al-Sharia in the Islamic Maghreb, dismantling the cell whose eight members planned to commit acts of sabotage against strategic sites, said an interior ministry statement. ( AFP, Rabat 5/11 2012) A cell active in recruiting young men absorbed with al Qaeda ideas with the aim of sending them for jihad in the Sahel (particularly Mali) was dismantled in late November. (MAP, Rabat 24/11) Niger: Five Nigerien aid workers who were abducted in Niger in mid-October, while working for the charity Befen, have been freed alive, while a sixth aid worker, a Chadian who worked for Alerte-Sante, died during the kidnapping after being shot by the Al-Qaeda-linked kidnappers. The kidnappers had reportedly been targeting an Italian anthropologist who was working for

Military aid group Doctors Without Borders (MSF). ( AFP, Niamey 3/11) Senegal: President Macky Sall on October 26th admitted to errors in managing a violent protest against the detention of a religious leader. Three people were injured and 127 cars seriously damaged after hordes of devout disciples of Cheick Bethio Thioune swarmed the capital, Dakar, smashing in car windows, setting others on re and sowing panic in the streets. Senegal police have arrested 33 people in connection with the protest. Thioune, a prominent leader of the Mouride brotherhood, one of four Su brotherhoods followed in the 95% Muslim nation, was arrested on April 23rd after the death of two of his disciples during a brawl at his house the previous evening. He was charged with complicity to murder along with several of his followers. ( AFP, Dakar 26/10) South Africa: Sixteen Western Cape towns were hit by violent protests during November over farming wages and working conditions, resulting in two deaths and extensive damage to property. On November 16th, protesters looted shops and torched businesses in the Hex River Valley and roads in the province, including the N2, were blockaded with rocks and burning tyres. The Coalition of Farm Worker Representatives then gave government a December 4th deadline to institute a wage of R150 per day, concede to worker demands and release arrested workers. (SAPA, News 24 19/11)

Military
ALGERIA
German Arms Deal The latest purchases are for local use, while an agreement with the US has a regional bearing.
The Echourouk El Youmi website (11/11) reported that the German Rheinmetall company, which specialises in the production of vehicle parts and defence equipment, plans to produce 1,200 armoured vehicles of the renowned Fuchs model for Algeria at the cost of 195m over the next 10 years. All of the vehicles are reportedly for use in Algeria. Der Spiegel magazine, quoting government sources, said the company had in 2011 endorsed the delivery of 54 armoured vehicles of that type at a cost of 195m (US$248m) and has also endorsed the delivery of other vehicles at the cost of 286m. Berlin has also underwritten a 2.13bn deal for two warships. (Echourouk El Youmi, Algiers 11/
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Meanwhile Al Jazeera (15/11) reveals that the US has allowed Algeria access to a high-tech security system, linking intelligence services in Europe and Africa and helping them track down armed groups, particularly in north Mali. The system, to which other African countries will have access, helps them pre-empt terrorist attacks and stop the spread of terrorism to other countries in the continent, according to Algerian newspapers cited by Al-Jazeera. Algerian political scientist, Mustapha Said, said there was a deep-rooted security partnership between the US and countries in North Africa and the Sahel dating back to the 2002 PanSahel Initiative and the 2006 Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Initiative. In the wake of the Mali crisis, there have been efforts in the context of that security partnership to make use of American high-tech capabilities, such as radar systems, which can monitor
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movements of terror and organized crime groups in the event of a military action in north Mali, he said. Under an agreement between Algeria, Mauritania, Mali and Niger, the four countries are to make use of foreign logistic, technical and intelligence resources, mostly from the US, he explained. Al-Jazeera asked whether allowing Algeria to join the high-tech system is an attempt to make it play a role in the imminent offensive in Mali that goes beyond logistic support. Through security partnership, Algeria contributes to global counterterrorism efforts by sharing information and data, he answered. During the last meeting of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) held in Bamako, he said, Algeria stated clearly that it will make use of the intelligence sharing scheme. Said recalled that under the 2002 security partnership, the US has given US$100m in annual counterterrorism assistance to seven countries, three in the Maghreb region and four in subSaharan Africa. (Al-Jazeera TV, Doha 15/
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Africa Research Bulletin 19505 African countries aim to launch the ASF, comprising of regional armies, which will be deployed to maintain continental peace and stability. (PANA, Addis Ababa 30/10) Comoros: A court on November 2nd acquitted the former head of the army, General Salimou Amiri, of complicity in the murder of a high-ranking ofcer, Combo Ayouba on June 13th 2010 during a crisis between the military hierarchy and former president Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi. Three other soldiers accused of carrying out the murder were also acquitted, though the prosecutor had asked for the death penalty for one of them and lifelong forced labour for another. ( AFP 2/11 2012) ECOWAS: The 5th MEDays international forum ended on November 17th in Morocco with the Tangier Declaration proposing a new global security strategy based on regional co-operation and the pooling of defence efforts. The statement from forum attendees encouraged ECOWAS to take the lead in resolving the Mali crisis. The declaration also urged the Arab League, the EU and other international partners to support initiatives aimed at boosting Maghreb integration. (Magharebia.com 18/11) Ghana: President John Mahama has inaugurated two surveillance aircraft at Takoradi Air Force base, and two vessels, GNS Naa Gbewaa and GNS Yaa Asantewaa, at Sekondi Naval Base, Western Region, to enhance the protection of the countrys marine and air space. The surveillance aircraft for the Air Force and the two vessels for the Ghana Navy are to ward off piracy, illegal bunkering, drug trafcking and illegal shing. (Daily Graphic, Accra 20/10) Kenya: A global private defence rm has established a military-vehicles manufacturing plant in Mombasa, as it aims to tap into the growing security needs of the regions government defence forces and peacekeeping missions. Osprea Logistics, with headquarters in the UK, says it is setting up a US$42m facility that will initially assemble Mamba Mk5 armoured trucks before moving to other military products. Mk5 can carry 11 passengers, withstand triple anti-tank land-mines and large improvised explosive devices, and can deliver an operational range of over 600 kms. Production will start in January 2013, with 30 units being manufactured each month. (Daily Nation website, Nairobi 14/11) Liberia: A squad of 558 Chinese troops assigned for the United Nations-mandated peacekeeping mission (UNMIL) arrived on November 13th. A second squad was due to arrive 10 days later. Comprising 275 engineers, 240 members of the infantry and 43 medical staff, all from the Beijing Military Area Command, the troops will assume an eight-month-long mission in Liberia, replacing a previous Chinese peacekeeping team. Their duties will include constructing roads, bridges and bunkers, repairing houses and airports, maintaining water and electricity supply facilities, transportation, as well as medical treatment and epidemic prevention. (Xinhua news agency, Beijing 13/11) Mauritania: A top-level French military delegation ended a four-day visit to Nouakchott on November 8th that focused on terrorism and the conict in Mali. The delegation was led by General Bruno Clment-Bolle, head of Security and e e Defence Co-operation at the French Foreign Ministry. The French ofcials met Mauritanian army chiefs, as well as with Mauritanian Interior Minister Mohamed Ould Boilil. Over the previous year, France gave Mauritania 2.6m in defence assistance. (Magharebia.com 9/11) Rwanda: Belgium has stopped military cooperation with Rwanda, Pieter De Crem, the Belgian Minister of Defence, told parliament on November 7th. The decision follows a report by UN experts accusing the Kigali regime of providing arms and troops to the DR Congolese rebel group M23. According to the report, the M23 is purportedly controlled by the Rwandan Minister of Defence, James Kabarebe. (PANA, Brussels 9/11)

GUINEA BISSAU
Army Reform ECOWAS support is aimed at creating stability and an environment conducive to holding elections.
Chronically unstable Guinea-Bissau received US$63m on November 7th from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to help the country reform its army as it recovers from an April coup. The aid was handed over to transitional authorities in a ceremony in Bissau attended by ECOWAS Commission chief Kadre Desire Ouedraogo and Guinea-Bissaus Foreign Minister Faustino Fudut Imbali. The transitional authorities and ECOWAS also formalised the presence of a 638-strong armed west African force in the country. The force, known as ECOMIB, is charged with securing transition bodies. It replaces a contingent of Angolan troops whose presence in the country was strongly opposed by the military, prompting an army junta to overthrow the government of Carlos Gomes Junior on April 12th, in between two rounds of a presidential election. ECOWAS, of which Guinea-Bissau is a member, condemned the putsch but later accepted an agreement between the junta and politicians and lifted sanctions against the country. The interim government is planning to hold elections in 2013. ( AFP 7/11 2012)
Coup Mastermind Arrested p. 19491

IN BRIEF
African Union: The AU held a simulated training programme, code-named Operation Njiwa, at the Eastern Africa Standby Brigade headquarters, to gauge the readiness of its police and civilian components, ahead of the formal launch of the African Standby Force (ASF).

Overseas Relations
AFRICA US
Reaction to Obamas Victory While there remains doubt over the Presidents rst-term record, the election result was celebrated across the continent.
African heads of states on November 7th welcomed Barack Obamas sweeping victory and vowed to strengthen cooperation, hoping that the US would
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continue to play a positive role in the continents development. Obamas unwillingness to visit African countries during his rst term raised many questions on whether the African continent is among his priorities. He spent less than 24 hours in sub-Saharan Africa a ying visit to Ghana in 2009. Lindiwe Zulu, international relations adviser to South Africas President Jacob Zuma, and openly pro-Obama, hoped that over the next four years Africa
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would occupy a higher space in his agenda. We are hoping that this time around he will even be able to visit South Africa, because if he doesnt, we wont forgive him for that! Zuma offered his own congratulations. We value our relations with the United States and look forward to strengthening bilateral co-operation in the years to come, he said. Barack Obamas victory was immensely popular across the continent, nowhere more so than in Kogelo, the Kenyan village where his late father was born, reported The Guardian, London (7/11). Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki said it was a well deserved victory adding
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that Kenya, as always is proud of our association with you, The chorus of congratulation was joined by Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, whose own election campaign borrowed conspicuously from Obamas. Egypts Islamist President Mohamed Mursi hailed his US counterparts reelection and said he hoped it would strengthen the friendship between their two countries. Despite the fall of its key regional ally, president Hosni Mubarak, Egypt remains the second largest recipient of US foreign aid after Israel totalling $1.5bn a year, mostly for its military. AFP quoted African Union (AU) chairman Thomas Boni Yayi as urging the newly re-elected President to show more commitment to resolving crises on the African continent. Hillary Clinton has coordinated US diplomacy on Mali with US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, who is now frontrunner to take over from her as Secretary of State in January. Rice, a former Assistant Secretary of State for Africa and an Africa specialist on the National Security Council, is well known on the continent, writes Patrick Smith in his Africa Condential blog (13/11). She takes a robust line with Sudans Islamist regime; in Kigali she is seen as a good friend of Rwanda as other Western governments pull back on diplomacy and aid after successive UN reports accused Kigali of backing for militias in eastern DR Congo (see p. 19487). South Africas Business Day said Mr Obamas eloquent and conciliatory acceptance speech will surely have raised hopes that more can be achieved in a second term. (Sources as referenced in text)

EGYPT GAZA ISRAEL


Cairo Brokers Fragile Truce Egypt mediates, staging a powerful comeback on the international stage and winning praise from the US, Israel and Hamas.
An Egyptian-brokered truce deal came into effect on November 21st ending eight days of bloodshed, with both Israel and the ruling Hamas movement in Gaza claiming victory while remaining wary. In Gaza, Hamas declared the day to be a public holiday to mark the end of hostilities, announced in Egypt by Foreign Minister Mohammed Kamel Amr at a news conference with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Ms Clinton pointedly praised the responsibility and leadership of Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi, who
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played a key role in applying pressure to Hamas. Hamas is an offshoot of Egypts Muslim Brotherhood, which is closely aligned with Mursi. The deal brokered by the new Islamist government signals the shifting political landscape of the region, according to The Times, London (22/11). Just months into his role as Egypts rst democratically elected leader, Mursi became the main interlocutor between Israel and Hamas, as Israel pummeled the enclave with airstrikes and Gaza-based militants red rockets at southern Israeli towns. Violence had continued to the last moments before the truce. At least 112 Palestinians and three Israelis were killed during Israeli air strikes against Gaza, which were launched in a bid to stop militants ring rockets into the Jewish state. Details leaked to the Egyptian media said the ceasere was a four-point plan under which Israel and the Palestinian groups both commit to cease all hostile activity in Gaza or around its borders, and Israel will lift border controls, easing restrictions on the movement of goods and people in and out of Gaza. The United Nations (UN) Security Council urged both sides to respect the hard-won ceasere deal while hailing Egypt for mediating an end to the bloodshed, AFP reported (22/11). Under the agreement Egypt will now play a key role in implementing peace between the two sides. Addressing reporters in Cairo, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal declared: The Israeli conspiracy has failed. They wanted to conduct an election campaign and they wanted to test Egypt. Egypt did not forget its status as an Arab nation, he went on. The bargain that was struck between Israel and Hamas marks a powerful comeback by Egypt on the international stage. The country has long prided itself on being the central arbiter of diplomatic and cultural power in the Middle East but had become increasingly irrelevant under Hosni Mubarak. The Israeli bombardment of Gaza posed a major challenge for the Mursi presidency. He had to listen to popular opinion that he support Hamas and the Palestinian cause in a way that Mubarak never did, and the countrys powerful military would not accept that Egypts ties with the US and Israel be jeopardised. The rapid changes in Egypt have left the United States and Israel with a less pliant but potentially stronger partner, analysts say, as Mursi can claim to speak for the Egyptian people in a way MuB

barak never could. And Egypts pledge to underwrite the cease-re may lay the foundations for Cairo to serve as a trusted go-between in any future peace negotiations, writes Michael Birnbaum of the Washington Post in The Independent, London (22/11). Mursi managed to keep Israels trust while still reecting Egyptian public opinion, which long chafed at Mubaraks deferential approach to the neighbour across the Sinai desert. This time around, Egypt came down rmly on the side of Palestinians, while still keeping its peace with Israel and shuttling between the warring sides. His rapid response to the escalation in Gaza may also have been intended to compensate for a controversial letter he had sent to the Israeli President, Shimon Peres, for the accreditation of the new Egyptian ambassador to Israel a few weeks earlier. The very friendly language of the letter, which was signed off with Your faithful friend, caused angry reactions in Egypt and led to accusations that Mursi was no different from Mubarak. Egypts new government is assuming the responsibility and leadership that has long made this country a cornerstone of regional stability and peace, Secretary of State Clinton said at the November 21st press conference. Israel offered cautious support, promising to give a chance to the Egyptian proposal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: I would like ... to express my appreciation for the efforts of Egypt to obtain a cease-re, he said in Jerusalem. Mursi had been quick to condemn the Israeli assault, calling it a agrant aggression against humanity, buying himself time with his own public to work diplomatic channels to end the hostilities. The President recalled his ambassador from Tel Aviv and sent his prime minister to Gaza on November 16th in the midst of the ghting. US ofcials say President Obama had been impressed by Mr Mursis pragmatism and honesty during the crisis and now considered him a trusted partner. The feeling here was that he came in as a bit of an unknown quantity, said an Obama administration ofcial. But Mursi came through, the ofcial said, on both Gaza and the storming of the US embassy in Cairo in September (p. 19434). The ceasere may yet break down, but analysts believe that Mr Mursi could become a key mediator between the two bitter enemies. (Sources as referenced
in text) Sinai military offensive p. 19385

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SUDAN ISRAEL
Bombing of Weapons Facility An Israeli attack on a Khartoum arms factory highlights its tougher line in Africa and growing Sudanese ties with Iran.
Taken by surprise, Khartoum ofcials at rst offered contradictory explanations for a devastating attack on the El Yarmouk arms factory in Khartoum at around midnight on October 23rd-24th. After emergency discussions, the regime blamed Israel and complained to the United Nations (UN) Security Council. Although Iran and Arab governments condemned the attack, there was little real Arab support and virtually none from elsewhere. The trigger for the bombing of the El Yarmouk Industrial Complex was an attack on Israel from Gaza using Sudanese-made rockets, a senior Sudanese opposition source claimed. As always, Israel declined to conrm or deny the attack but one serving ofcial told Africa Condential that the reason was developments in the Sinai Desert, where al Qaeda and other jihadists had built up bases as Egypts former regime under President Hosni Mubarak was losing control. We need time to understand exactly what happened here, but the role of Sudan is clear: it is a dangerous terrorist state, the Israeli Defence Ministrys Director of Policy and Political Military Affairs, Major General (Retired) Amos Gilad, told Israeli Army Radio.

increases deterrence. There is no point in elaborating. Everyone can use their imagination. Whoever needs to know, knows. At the time, Khartoums National Congress Party (NCP) regime had kept quiet about the attack until relatives of the victims leaked it. The silence was later seen as an admission that the NCP was moving weapons via Sinai to the ruling Hamas in Gaza. Meteor Rockets

This time, say opposition and other sources, the rockets for Gaza were Shihab (meteor), probably Shihab-3. These have a 1,280km range. Some observers doubted that such rockets would be destined for Gaza or that Iran would allow such a powerful weapon to be made in Sudan. Others counter that Iran needs a reliable manufacturing centre in case of an Israeli attack. The Sunday Times, London listed Israels attack force as eight F-15I aeroplanes, four carrying two one-tonne bombs, escorted by four ghters; two CH53 helicopters, in case crew rescue were required; one Boeing 707 tanker, to refuel the jets and choppers over the Red Sea; and crucially, a Gulfstream G550 ultra-long-range electronic warfare jet. This was to jam Sudans radar. Photographs released by the United States-based Satellite Sentinel Project show the main target as a 60metre shed in the north-east of the vast Yarmouk Complex and some 406.5m. containers, monitored days earlier. SSP also noted at least six 16m impact craters. Most of Yarmouk was not targeted but it was damaged by a massive re that reignited the next day and again on October 29th. Khartoum said After a strike against a Sudanese arms that two people were killed and many convoy in January 2009, the then Israeli injured but did not mention deaths at Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, said: We the factory itself. Local reports claimed operate in every area where terrorist at least seven Iranian engineers died. The infrastructures can be struck. We are regime still has rocket storage facilities operating in locations near and far, and near Kenana, in White Nile State, says attack in a way that strengthens and Africa Condential. There were reports in White Nile that a convoy of weapons had been 20 km SAFAT COMPOUND FOR AIRCRAFT bombed some 10 miles Wadi Seidna Air Base three weeks earlier, a Sudanese Khartoum source told the North (Bahri) London-based Omdurman EL ZARGHA PLANT publication. ReuHalfaya Um Bedda ters quoted WesKAFOURI FACILITY Tuti l. E. Nile tern intelligence Souk El Arabi Khartoum International Airport sources as conSHEJERA AMMUNITION FACTORY KHARTOUM rming this. Salha EL YARMOUK ARMS FACTORY COMPOUND The National Soba Security and El Hilla Intelligence Serel Jadida vice (NISS) quickly cordoned off the area, IBRAHIM SHAMS EL DIN COMPOUND refusing access (Africa-confidential.com) even to police.
Nil e
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NISS ofcials locally blamed the attack on the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army, which only served to enhance the image of regime disarray, since the SPLA (North or South) has no airpower. Khartoum State Governor Abdel Rahman el Khidr then explained that the re had spread because of dry grass, after which the Sudan Armed Forces Spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Sawarmi Khalid Saad, blamed a welder. The NCP Spokesman, Professor Badr el Din Ahmed Ibrahim, offered yet another version and it was hours before Culture and Information Minister Ahmed Bilal Osman blamed Israel. Sudanese reacted with derision: The government spends its energy on crushing the people not defending the country, one commented. Most of Sudans weapons manufactured or imported (mainly from China, Iran, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine) have been used at home. Khartoums growing military cooperation with Iran suggests it wants to build a serious arms export industry. Sudans relations with Iran military and other were active from soon after the 1989 coup but grew strongly after the 2008 and 2009 defence agreements. In 2008, the then Iranian Defence Minister, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, described Sudan as the pivot of Iran-Africa relations. Under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Irans push into Africa has grown rapidly. Israel monitors the ties between Tehran and Khartoum: We know that it is also involved in shipping arms and weapons to Libya through Darfur. From Darfur, weapons also go to Chad and Mali. Meanwhile, Iran continues to increase its interests in the region through business links and support of domestic wars, an ofcial said. After the Yarmouk bombing, the Khartoum government emphasised its support for Palestine and Muslim causes but barely mentioned Iran. Tehran had other ideas. A task force of the 22nd Iranian army docked in Sudan this morning, the Iranian Students News Agency reported (29/10). The task force comprised a helicopter eet and destroyer ships, which have been sent to Sudan with a message of peace and security to the neighbouring countries and also of confronting terrorism. Khartoum again declared itself at war with Israel. It also complained to the UN Security Council, where Ambassador Dafaallah el Haj Ali Osman told the Council that Israel was the main factor behind the conict in Darfur. (Africa
Condential 2/11)

Nile White

On November 2nd, South Africas Department of International Relations and Cooperation issued a statement on
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19508 Africa Research Bulletin

Social and Cultural late October, and has sought refuge in Sweden. At a press conference in early November, he criticized the Kinshasa government and its neighbours for not doing enough to stop the violence in his country. Mukwege founded the Panzi hospital and foundation in Bukavu to help the thousands of women who have been raped in the eastern DR Congo by members of local and foreign armed groups, as well as by army soldiers. Every year, the hospitals main programme for the victims of sexual violence treats around 3,000 women. ( AFP 6/11; US State Department 5/11) Libya US: General David Petraeus has claimed that he always believed the US ambassador to Libya was murdered during a terrorist attack, even though the Obama administration initially described the killing differently, reports The Independent, London (16/11). In closed-doors testimony on Capitol Hill, the former head of the CIA reportedly told lawmakers that his agencys draft talking points on the September 11th Benghazi tragedy were edited by other security agencies before being shared with the White House. The claim will give fresh legs to conspiracy theories already swirling around the death of the Ambassador, Christopher Stevens. It also appears to contradict the evidence that Gen. Petraeus gave at a hearing in September. (Sources as referenced in text) US embassy attack rethink p. 19470 French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said on November 12th his country could help Libya tackle security issues. The rst representative of a foreign government to address the Libyan national assembly, Fabius said: I propose scaling up our security and defence cooperation to help you build the army and police forces that Libya needs. Fabius said France was also ready to help Libya, a transit point for thousands of subSaharan African migrants seeking a better life in Europe, to monitor its borders. ( AFP 12/11)

its ofcial website condemning in the strongest terms the attack on the AlYarmuk ammunitions facility by an Israeli military aircraft. (Department of
International Relations website, Pretoria 2/11) Military relations with Iran Vol. 48 p. 19030

IN BRIEF
Africa UN: C^te dIvoire, Ethiopia, Gabon, o Kenya and Sierra Leone were among those elected to the United Nations Human Rights Council on November 12th. Amnesty International said the UN should only elect those states able to show commitment to human rights and singled out C^ te dIvoire in o particular as falling short on this front. (Amnesty International, PANA 11/11) DR Congo: The US on November 5th urged the DR Congo to investigate an attack on a pioneering doctor and founder of a rape victims clinic. Denis Mukwege was forced to ee the country after the attempt on his life in

Social and Cultural


RELIGION
Egypt The enthronement of a new religious leader comes at an uncertain time for the countrys Christians.
In an elaborate ceremony, Wagih Sobhy Bakky Suleiman, a 60-year-old trained pharmacist who headed a medicine factory until 1986, was chosen on November 4th as the 118th pope to lead Egypts Coptic Church in a line dating back to the origins of Christianity and to Saint Mark, the apostle and author of one of the four Gospels, who brought the new faith to Egypt. He will head the largest Christian minority in the Middle East under the name Tawadros II. He succeeds Pope Shenuda III, who headed the church for four decades. Shenuda died in March leaving behind a community anxious about its status under an Islamist-led government. The new pope obtained a clerical degree in 1985 and was made a monk in 1988 at Saint Bishoy monastery in Wadi Natrun, northeast of Cairo. In 1997 he was consecrated bishop. Tawadros II worked with the powerful Bishop Pachomius, who was appointed acting head of the church after the death of Shenuda III. Noted for his knowledge of theology, he favours a more pastoral role for the Church and rarely involves himself in political matters, according to AFP (5/ 11).
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Despite the optimistic words of Patriarch Kyrillos VI, a former Pope who once claimed that Egypts Muslims and Christians were one people worshipping the same God in two different ways, many Copts are feeling increasingly isolated, writes The Independent, London (4/11). The process of writing a new constitution has been dominated by an Islamistled assembly, while elections since the fall of the old regime have revealed robust support for fundamentalists wanting to shoehorn sharia law onto the political agenda. In addition, the poll comes after years of tensions over church-building permits and the highly combustible issues of conversions and intra-religious love affairs. Tawadros ofcial biography stresses his wish for good relations with Muslims, saying he has asked the media to accentuate common values between the two religions to avoid extremism and consolidate national unity. Copts, who make up six to 10% of the 83m population, have regularly complained of discrimination and marginalisation, even under the secular regime of president Hosni Mubarak.The subsequent rise of Islamists, and the election of the countrys rst Islamist president, Mohamed Mursi, have sparked fears of further persecution at home despite Mursis repeated promises to be a president for all Egyptians. Mursi had sent Tawadros a congratulatory message, the ofcial MENA news agency reported.
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He wished the new pope success in his efforts to achieve unity for the Egyptian people. Pope Tawadros II said he would reject a constitution still in the making if it imposed a religious state, newspapers reported on November 6th. Copts have suffered an increase in attacks that killed dozens of Christians after the overthrow of Mubarak and many had opposed Mursis election in June. Shenuda III had beseeched Christians to be patient in confronting sectarian strife, but many have cast doubt on such calls for restraint as the attacks multiplied. Five Coptic Christians were injured on October 28th in clashes with Muslims at a church in a village south of Cairo, security sources said. The violence took place as Muslim villagers attempted to block access to the church as the Coptic faithful arrived from throughout the area to attend Sunday mass. Bishop Morcos, chairman of the churchs inuential media committee, recently told the state-owned Al-Ahram weekly we reject the notion of a religious state that would prevent us from exercising our freedom as Copts The state should be ruled by law and not religion, he said. Mursi has pledged to allow the Christians equal rights, but the once banned Muslim Brotherhood to which Mursi belongs has repeatedly said it wants to gradually impose an Islamic state. Tawadros II was formally enthroned on November 18th as Pope of Alexandria and Patriarch of All Africa in the Holy See of St Mark the Apostle at a ceremony lasting nearly four hours, attended by the nations Muslim prime
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minister and a host of cabinet ministers and politicians. (Sources as referenced in


text)

Nigeria
Abujas Archbishop, between Christianity becomes a Cardinal. bridge-builder and Islam,

The Nigerian archbishop named by Pope Benedict XVI to the Vaticans College of Cardinals in late October said his appointment was a great honour to Africa. John Olufemi Onaiyekan, the archbishop of Abuja, was one of six non-European prelates nominated by the pope to the elite body that remains heavily weighted in favour of Europe. Onaiyekan has won widespread respect for his efforts to ease religious tensions in Nigeria, Africas most populous nation, where divisions have led to deadly clashes.

He has used the pulpit to speak against misgovernance and build bridges between Islam and Christianity in a country almost evenly divided between the two faiths. With Nigeria facing a deadly insurgency by Islamist extremist group Boko Haram, a number of Evangelical leaders have ominously raised the possibility of Christians being forced to defend themselves. Onaiyekan has however been a voice of reason and has urged calm, saying Boko Haram extremists were not representative of average Muslims in the country. He co-chairs a key inter-religious forum with Nigerias top Islamic leader, Muhammad Saad Abubakar. Joseph Faniran of the Catholic Institute of West Africa said Onaiyekan richly deserves the appointment. Onaiyekan, who holds a doctorate in biblical theology, was ordained as a Catholic priest in 1969 and appointed

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by the late Pope John Paul II as a permanent member of the Synod of Bishops in Rome. ( AFP, Lagos 24/10
2012)

Swaziland
The Anglican Church of Southern Africa consecrates its rst woman bishop in Africa.
Ellinah Wamukoya, 61, became Africas rst Anglican woman bishop on November 17th, BBC News Online reported (20/ 11). David Dinkebogile, who led the ceremony, stressed that the gathering was to consecrate a bishop not a black woman, not an African, not a Swazi woman. She was to be pastor to all, to men and women, to black and white, to Swazis and all others in her diocese, he said. Bishop Wamukoya is a former mayor of Swazilands economic capital, Manzini, the AFP news agency reported. Her consecration comes as the Church of England faces controversial issues, and voted on November at its General Synod against the ordination of women bishops, to the dismay of many within the Church including Justin Welby recently named as the next Archbishop of Canterbury and the establishment.
(Sources as referenced in the text)

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