Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Russian Defence Minister Bears Arms Carlyle A. Thayer March 5, 2013

[client name deleted] Regarding the Russian Defense Ministers visits to Myanmar and Vietnam, could you address the following specific questions?
Meeting of Vietnamese and Russian Defence officials 1) Could you provide an assessment of the recent visits to Myanmar and Vietnam by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu?

ANSWER: The visit by Russias Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is a significant event signaling renewed Russian interest in East Asia. It should be recalled that when Vietnam hosted the inaugural meeting of the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus in October 2010 the then Russian Defence Minister did not attend. He sent his deputy. Shoigu became defence minister in November 2012 after the ADMM Plus meeting. The main purpose of Shoigus visit was to encourage further arms procurements by Myanmar and Vietnam. Vietnam is one of Russias top arms export destinations. Since 2008 Vietnam has placed orders for stealth frigates, Kilo-class conventional submarines, coastal missile defence systems, twenty Su-30MK fighter aircraft, and weapon systems for these platforms. Reportedly, the two defence ministers discussed the current status of arms expected to be delivered to Vietnam as well as future defence procurements including up to 24 Su-30MK2 fighters, additional S-300 advanced air defence missile systems, military helicopters and two Gepard stealth frigates. 2) The talks between Vietnamese and Russian Defense Ministers mentioned the potential return to Cam Ranh base by Russias Pacific fleet. The Philippines has already publicly invited the US to assist the settlement of disputes in the South China Sea. Currently, Vietnam is expanding defense cooperation with Russia. With the involvement of the US and Russia, as a counterbalance to China, is it possible to say that Russias return to Cam Ranh is a turning point in territorial disputes in the South China Sea?

2 ANSWER: In 2010 Vietnam asked Russia to assist in upgrading the naval facilities at Cam Ranh Bay mainly in order to service the Kilo submarines when they are delivered. Top Vietnamese officials noted that Russia would be accorded special treatment because of its status as a strategic partner. In July 2012 the bilateral relationship was raised to a comprehensive strategic partnership in part due to closer defence cooperation through increase military sales. Since the Russian withdrawal from Cam Ranh Bay in 2000, Vietnam has consistently maintained a policy of three nos. Vietnams 2004 Defence White Paper stated, for example, Vietnam consistently advocates neither joining any military alliance nor giving any foreign countries permission to have military bases in Vietnam. Vietnam will never take part in any military activity that uses forces or threatens to use force against any other country The three nos policy was repeated in the 2009 Defence White Paper that declared, Vietnam consistently advocates neither joining any military alliances nor giving any other countries permission to have military bases or use its soil to carry out military activities against other countries. There is no possibility that the Russian Fleet will be permitted to set up a base at Cam Ranh Bay. Russian naval personnel and support ships will be permitted to upgrade the naval facilities at Cam Ranh. The Vietnamese government has declared that the commercial repair facilities at Cam Ranh are open to all countries. The United States has used these facilities to repair non-combat vessels. Russia could do so as well Russian warships, like Chinas navy, have called in at Vietnamese ports on return from anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden. So far Vietnam has not opened Cam Ranh Bay to such naval port visits. If Russian naval ships return to Southeast Asian waters in greater numbers they will not do so to contain China. Russia, like other maritime powers, has a stake in freedom of navigation. Russia will react to any challenge to this freedom in the same way that the United States, Japan and India have done by asserting Russian rights under international law. 3) Myanmar has recently opened up to foreign countries. Russia has so far had almost no presence in the Southeast Asian country. What do you think about the visit to Myanmar by the Russian Defense Minister? ANSWER: Myanmar is still subject to an arms sale embargo by the United States and European Union. Since 2008, Russia has sold combat and transport helicopters, jet fighter aircraft and air-to-air missiles. China and India are competitors for arms purchases by Myanmar. The visit by Russias Defence Minister was to determine its future military equipment needs and to encourage Myanmar to buy more Russian weapons and equipment. 4) Could you forecast regional development in the near-term future, after Russia returns to Cam Ranh, especially relating to the South China Sea? How will China react? ANSWER: It is my assessment that Russia is not seeking a permanent naval presence at Cam Ranh Bay to exert influence in the South China Sea. Nor is Russia seeking to contain China. Vietnam is unlikely to change it long-standing policy of three nos.

3 Russia sells weapons to both China and Vietnam, for example Su-30 MK jet fighters and Kilo-class submarines. In public Chinese officials state that such sales are the internal matter of the countries concerned. In private Chinese defence officials realize that Russian arms sales to Vietnam increase Vietnams capacity for self-defence. It is argued by security analysts that Defence Minister Shoigu and President Truong Tan Sang Vietnam is developing its own antiaccess/area denial strategy in the same way China is developing this strategy against the United States. China will have to be wary once Vietnam fully incorporates its six Kilo submarines into its navy and begins submarine operations in the South China Sea. There are problems in Sino-Russian weapons sales because China has stolen Russian technology and incorporated it in Chinas weapons system. This has led Russia to restrict sales to China. China has little leverage because it needs the very best Russian military technology.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Russian Defence Minister Bears Arms, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, March 5, 2013. Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived at Scribd.com

Transfers of major conventional weapons: sorted by recipient. Deals with deliveries or orders made for year range 2008 to 201 1
Note: The 'No. delivered/produced' and the 'Year(s) of deliveries' columns refer to all deliveries since the beginning of the contract. Deals in which the recipient was involved in the production of the weapon system are listed separately. The 'Comments' column includes publicly reported information on the value of the deal. Information on the sources and methods used in the collection of the data, and explanations of the conventions, abbreviations and acronyms, can be found at URL <httpPwww.sipri.org/contents/armstrad/at.data.html>. The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database is continuously updated as new information becomes available. Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database Information generated: 06 March 2013

Recipient/ supplier (S) or licenser (L) Viet Nam S: Russia

~o.

ordered

Weapon designation

Weapon description

Year Yearts) of order/ of licence deliveries

No. delivered/ produced

Comments

(400)

Igla-I/SA-16 Gimlet

Portable SAM

( 1996)

1999-20 II

(340)

(400) (200) 2 (2) 4 (40) (40) (80) 6 (250) 8 12 2 L: Russia ( 10)

Kh-35 LJran/SS-N-25 9M311/SA-19 Grison Gepard-3 K-300P Bastion-P Projeet-I0412/Svetlyak Yakhont/SS-N-26 3M-54 Klub/SS-N-27 Kh-3IAI/AS-17 Projeet-636E/Kilo R-73/AA-II Archer Su-30MKlFlanker Su-30MKlFlanker Gepard-3
--------------------

Anti-ship missile SAM Frigate

2004 (2006) 2006

2008-2011 2011 2011 2009-2011 2011 2009-2011

(83) (200) 2 (2) (2) (40)

Coast defence system 2007 2007 Patrol craft 2007 Anti-ship missile Anti-ship MI/SSM KAB-500!l500 Anti-ship missile Submarine SRAAM FGA aircraft FGA aircraft Frigate

(2009) Guided Bomb (2009) 2011 (2009) (2009) 2009 2010 2011

(2009) (40)

2010-2011 2010-2011 2011

-

(150) 8 (2)

SA-N-IO version for BPS-500 (Ho-A) and Project-I 0412 (Svetlyak) patrol craft and probably Projeet-1241 (Tarantul) FAC For Project-I 1661 (Gcpard) frigates and Projeet-1241 (Tarantul) FAC For Kashtan CIWS on 2 Gepard frigates Part of $300 m deal: Vietnamese designation Dinh Tien Hoang Pan of $300 m deal Delivery from 2011-2012 Part ot$300 m deal: for Bastion coastal defence system For Projeet-636 (Kilo) submarines (100) 2011 For Su-30MK2 combat aircraft: inc! Kh-31 P anti-randar version $1.8-2.1 b deal; delivery probably 2014-20 \6/20 \ 7 For Su-30MK2 combat aircraft $400-500 m deal; Su-30MK2V version $\ b deal: Su-30MK2V version
------

---- - - - - - - - - - - - _..-

Project-l 241 /Tarantul

FAC

(2004)

2008

Project-12418 (Tarantul-5) version: incl 8 produced in Viet Nam: delivery 2008-2016

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Russian Defence Minister Pays Visit Carlyle A. Thayer March 5, 2013

[client name deleted] What is your assessment of Russias Defence Minister General Shoigu's visit to Vietnam, ending today? Some reports state he is here because Vietnam wants to upgrade its military capacity to deal with an increasingly aggressive China. Other reports indicate his visit is more of a courtesy call. ANSWER: Officially, the visit of Russias Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to Vietnam and Myanmar is to discuss regional security issues and military-technical cooperation. The main purpose of Shoigus visit to Vietnam is to encourage further arms procurements and to discuss Russias upgrading of naval facilities at Cam Ranh Bay. Vietnam is one of Russias top arms export destinations. Since 2008. Vietnam has placed orders for stealth frigates, Kilo-class conventional submarines, coastal missile defence systems, twenty Su-30MK fighter aircraft, and weapon systems for these platforms. Reportedly, the two defence ministers discussed the current status of arms expected to be delivered to Vietnam as well as future defence procurements including up to 24 Su-30MK2 fighters, additional S-300 advanced air defence missile systems, military helicopters and two Gepard stealth frigates. In 2010 Vietnam asked Russia to assist in upgrading the naval facilities at Cam Ranh Bay mainly in order to service the Kilo submarines when they are delivered. Top Vietnamese officials noted that Russia would be accorded special treatment because of its status as a strategic partner. In 2012 the strategic partnership was upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership in recognition of Vietnams arms purchases that place it among Russias top arms export markets. Russia is expected to deliver the first of six Kilo-class submarines this year. Vietnam would like Russia to modernize its current naval base to include service facilities for the subs. Far from being a courtesy call, Defence Minister Shoigus visit to Myanmar and Vietnam is a significant event signaling renewed Russian interest in East Asia. It should be recalled that when Vietnam hosted the inaugural meeting of the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus in October 2010 the then Russian Defence Minister did not attend. He sent his deputy. Shoigu became defence minister in November 2012 after the ADMM Plus meeting.

2 Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Russian Defence Minister Pays Visit, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, March 5, 2013. Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived at Scribd.com

Transfers of major conventional weapons: sorted by supplier. Deals with deliveries or orders made for year range 2008 to 2011
Note: The No. delivered/produced and the Year(s) of deliveries columns refer to all deliveries since the beginning of the contract. Deals in which the recipient was involved in the production of the weapon system are listed separately. The Comments column includes publicly reported information on the value of the deal. Information on the sources and methods used in the collection of the data, and explanations of the conventions, abbreviations and acronyms, can be found at URL <http://www.sipri.org/contents/armstrad/at_data.html>. The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database is continuously updated as new information becomes available. Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database Information generated: 04 March 2013

Supplier/ recipient (R) No. or licenser (L) ordered Russia R: Myanmar

Weapon designation

Weapon description

Year Year(s) of order/ of licence deliveries

No. delivered/ produced

Comments

An-148 (50) 14 6 12 (80) (125)

Transport aircraft Mi-24P/Hind-F MiG-29/Fulcrum-A MiG-29S/Fulcrum-C Mi-2/Hoplite R-27/AA-10 Alamo R-73/AA-11 Archer

2009 Combat helicopter Fighter aircraft FGA aircraft Light helicopter BVRAAM SRAAM (2010)

2009 2009 2009 (2010) (2010) 2011

Status uncertain 2010-2011 (16) Possibly ex-Russian; Mi-35P version 2011 (6) Part of $570 m deal; incl 4 MiG-29UB; delivery 2011-2012 Part of $570 m deal; delivery probably 2012 2011 (40) (25) For MiG-29 combat aircraft For MiG-29 combat aircraft

Liu Nga c tr li Cam Ranh?

Mc Lm, bin tp vin RFA March 5, 2013 B trng Quc phng Nga Sergei Shoigu (T) bt tay tng Phng Quang Thanh ti H Ni hm 05 thng 03 nm 2013 AFP photo

B trng Quc phng Nga, Sergei Shoigu va c chuyn thm chnh thc Vit Nam t ngy 4 n ngy 5 thng 3. Nhn chuyn thm ny, B trng Quc phng Nga cng n thm cng Cam Ranh, vn l cn c hi qun ca Nga trc kia. Vit H c cuc phng vn chuyn gia ng Nam , Gio s Carl Thayer thuc hc vin Quc phng c.

Hp tc qun s Vit Nga

Trc ht, ni v hp tc qun s Nga Vit thi gian qua, Gio s Carl Thayer nhn xt: "Vo thng 11 nm 1978, hai nc k hip c quc phng v hp tc qun s trong vng 25 nm. Sau th Vit Nam xm lc Campuchia, ri Nga c vo Cam Ranh. Nm 1991, Lin X sp v v nhng kh khn v kinh t Nga c gng p Vit Nam phi tr nhng mn n vi Lin X c, th l Vit Nam i tin cho thu Cam Ranh v Lin bang Nga quyt nh rt khi y. T n nay Vit Nam k n 9 tha thun i tc chin lc vi cc nc khc, cc nc ln, u tin l Nga vo nm 2001, 11 nm sau , c nng cp thnh hp tc i tc ton din. Theo ti c bit l do nguyn nhn Nga bn rt nhiu v kh cho Vit Nam. Hin Vit Nam l 1 trong 10 th trng nhp khu v kh ln nht ca Nga. Tm li, hp tc kinh t hai nc c lc ln xung v ch yu trong du kh, cn hp tc quc phng Vit Nam lun ph thuc vo cng ngh v kh ca Lin X trc kia v gi l Nga. Cho nn ti c th ni vic Vit Nam mua nhiu v kh t Nga l nguyn nhn chnh a quan h hp tc quc phng hai nc ln tm chin lc. Vit H: Vit Nam cng c hp tc qun s vi Trung Quc v M, s khc bit gia quan h vi Nga so vi cc nc Trung Quc v M l g?

C hai kh nng m ta phi ni ti. Hi qun Nga lin tc a ra cc bo co v kh nng quay li Cam Ranh nu h mun trong khi gii lnh o Maxcova lin tc ni khng v khng c tin. - GS. Carl Thayer GS. Carl Thayer: Cc mi quan h ny c mc tiu khc nhau. Quan h hp tc qun s vi M da vo bn ghi nh ca hai bn trn 5 lnh vc, tc l mi hp tc ny khng ln cao, ch l cc i thoi cp cao, cc hp tc v y t, tm kim cu h Vi Trung Quc mi quan h hp tc ch yu l tun tra chung trn vnh Bc B, v c th l thit lp ng dy nng gia hai B Quc Phng, v trao i o to nhn s. Tuy nhin vi Nga, bi v Vit Nam mua mt s lng ln v kh ca Nga, Vit Nam gi nhiu ngi sang Nga c o to s dng bo dng, v sa cha cc thit b ny. Nga l nc cung cp v kh hng u cho Vit Nam hn hn so vi M v Trung Quc. M ch c th bn cho Vit nam mt s loi v kh khng st thng do nhng cm vn v v kh, v vic bn v kh ny cng cha c ci thin v tnh hnh nhn quyn Vit Nam. Trung Quc bn cho Vit Nam cc v kh hng nh nh n dc, nhng Vit Nam gi cng c nhng x nghip t sn xut cc v kh ny. Cho nn 3 hp tc ny l rt khc bit. i vi Nga l vic o to nhng k thut vin cho vic s dng, bo tr v kh v bn v kh cho Vit nam vi s lng ln. M ch yu l vn v nh hng an ninh chnh tr, vi Trung Quc cng vy. Mi quan h vi M v Trung Quc mc song song, c hai u nng ln mc i thoi cp th trng Quc phng.

Nga s tr li Cam Ranh?

Vit H: B trng Quc phng Nga cng n thm vnh Cam Ranh, ni vn l cn c hi qun ca Nga trc kia. C nhiu n on cho rng Nga s tr li Cam Ranh nhng cng c kin cho rng khng th. ng nhn nh th no v kh nng Vit Nam cho php hi qun nc ngoi ng cn c ti Cam Ranh? GS. Carl Thayer: C hai kh nng m ta phi ni ti. Hi qun Nga lin tc a ra cc bo co v kh nng quay li Cam Ranh nu h mun trong khi gii lnh o Maxcova lin tc ni khng v khng c tin. l mt kha cnh. Th hai l vo nm 2004 v 2009 Vit Nam a ra sch trng Quc phng v c hai sch trng ny u ni r l khng c hi qun nc no c vo ng Vit Nam. Vo khong cui nm 2009 u 2010, gii chc Vit Nam ni l cc c s thng mi cng Cam Ranh s c m ca cho hi qun cc nc nhng khng v mc ch qun s. M l nc u tin c tu n y sa, nhng ch mc nh khong 500 ngn la mt ln sa. Sau khi Vit Nam t mua 6 tu ngm kilo, Vit Nam phi c ni tu, v Cam Ranh l cn c hi qun ca Nga trc kia, l ni tu ngm ca Vit Nam. V vy Vit Nam ngh Nga nng cp cc thit b y cung cp cc tr gip k thut cho mc ch ny. T nm 2014 n nm 2016 Vit nam s nhn nhng tu ngm ny. C Nga v Trung Quc u gi tu chng hi tc n vnh Aden, cc tu ny i nhng chng di qua eo bin Malacca, bin ng ri tr v Trung Quc v cng Vladivostok vng vin ng Nga.

Tng Trng Quc phng Hoa K Leon Panetta n thm cng Cam Ranh hm 03/6/2012. AFP photo Trung Quc mun gi tu n thm Cam Ranh v Nga cng lm nh vy trong qu kh, nhng Vit Nam vn cha cho tu hi qun nc ngoi n thm Cam Ranh. Cc quan chc Vit nam ni khi m phn vi Nga v vic gip Vit Nam nng cp cc c s hi qun, Vit Nam s cho Nga nhng i x c bit v lc th hai nc cha thnh i tc chin lc, bi Nga phi gi tu vo y a cc thit b, v k thut vin v k s cho mc ch ny. Ti nghi ng kh nng Nga s ng qun y. Mc d vy, vnh Cam Ranh rt c gi tr khng th b qua. Bt c tu no i qua bin ng cng cn sa cha nh, M sa my lnh, ng dn v h thng cung cp nc ti y, v Nga cng th. Nhng cho n lc ny cha c nc no c th a tu qun s vo thm chnh thc y. Vit H: Nga l nc bn v kh qun s ln nht cho Vit Nam v Trung Quc, nhng ng c ni rng Nga gii hn vic bn v kh cho Trung Quc v Trung Quc nh cp cng ngh ca Nga, liu y c phi l li th cho Vit Nam? GS. Carl Thayer: Nga v tr tuyt vi khi h bn SU 27 Sukhoi v SU 30 cho c vit Nam v Trung Quc nhng Trung Quc c mt nn cng nghip quc phng rt ln, v sau s k giy php sn xut chng trong nc v Nga lm. Cn Vit Nam th qu nh v mt ngh nh vy cha tin n u. Sau Trung Quc s dng k s iu nghin cc cng ngh ca Nga v p dng chng trong mt lot cc thit b ca mnh nh my bay, tu chin. Cc nh phn tch Nga sau xem cc hnh nh v phn tch thy Trung Quc ly cc tng ny t u. Sau c tin l Nga gii hn bn v kh cho Trung Quc, gii hn mt s cc cng ngh c tnh nhy cm, v Nga mun kim tin trn cc cng ngh ca mnh. V pha Vit Nam th lm sao Trung Quc c th phn i mt cch cng khai khi m h cng ma cng mt loi cng ngh. Ti nghi ng kh nng Nga s ng qun y. Mc d vy, vnh Cam Ranh rt c gi tr khng th b qua.Nhng cho n lc ny cha c nc no c th a tu qun s vo thm chnh thc y. - GS. Carl Thayer C hai u mua my bay chin u SU 30, cng mua tu ngm hng kilo. Trung Quc d khng chnh thc cng phi lo lng v h bit cng ngh ca Nga hiu qu th no. Mc d Vit Nam khng th tn cng hi qun Trung Quc v thng nhng nu c xy ra xung t th Vit Nam c th gy thit hi khng nh cho i phng. Vit H: Vit Nam c vai tr quan trng th no i vi Nga trong chin lc ca nc ny ti khu vc chu Thi Bnh Dng? GS. Carl Thayer: Hai nc nhn nhau nh l i tc hp tc chin lc mt phn bi v vng vin ng ca Lin X c v Nga by gi vic vn chuyn du kh c th c thc hin d dng bng ng bin n Vladivostok hn l trn cn. Nga cn tin c th lm cc trao i bun bn vi Vit Nam, mt s trao i bng hng nh du c, v hng nng sn v v vy rt linh hot.

Nga mun mt th gii a cc v khng mun M chim v tr thng soi ; ri Nga cng c nhng quan ngi nht nh vi Trung Quc, c bit l tnh hnh ngi nhp c bt hp php vng vin ng Nga. Nhng c hai nc u c th iu chnh mi quan h ca mnh. Mc d vy Nga s khng hp tc vi Trung Quc chng li M. Mt khc Nga cng lun ni l h mun tr li pha ng, tc l ng , nhng h cn tin. Du kh ca Nga cung cp cho h mt khon tin ng k nhng s l qu ng khi ni rng hi qun Nga s c mt hng hu trong khu vc. Ngay c khi thi chin tranh lnh nh im, s hin din ca hi qun Nga cng rt hn ch, mt phn l bi n l mt i tc chnh vi Nga, v tu ca Nga thng n n , Vit Nam l ni dng chn thun tin trn ng. Vit Nam l ni cung cp tin ln cho Nga, c bit l trong lnh vc du kh, v Nga cng c quyn li su y phi bo v cc u t ca mnh cc vng m Trung quc cha to sc p. Mc khc Nga cng mun c t do hng hi trong khu vc nh hi qun cc nc khc. V vy Trung Quc phi cn thn khng cn tr cc tu ca Nga v nu khng h s gp phi tnh hung nh vi hi qun M, Nht hay c. iu ny gy kh khn hn vi vic i ch quyn ca Trung Quc trn vng bin nhng khng lin quan n cc o v bi vn khng c g lin quan n Nga. Vit H: Xin cm n ng dnh cho chng ti bui phng vn ny