DAILY I FOREX REPORT

8TH MARCH 2013

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HEADLINES

Forex: EUR/JPY, EUR/USD And GBP/USD Primed For ECB, BOE EUR/USD- Trading The European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Decision

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3045 tgs 1.3065/1.3085 sl 1.3015

EUR/USD- Trading The European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Decision Pound May Fall as BOE Expands QE, Euro Eyes Draghi Comments
Monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are in focus in European hours. Economists expect the BOE will maintain its asset-purchase program at 375 billion, but a plausible case for an increase in stimulus seems to have emerged. Februarys MPC meeting minutes showed three policymakers (King, Miles and Fisher) voting to boost purchases by 25 billion. Last week, Deputy Governor Paul Tucker likewise seemed receptive, saying he was open to doing more and adding that nobody on the committee thinks that QE [is not] a useful instrument anymore. That means the doves need to secure just one more vote on the 9-member MPC to get their way. Such an outcome is likely to weigh further on the British Pound and we continue to hold short.

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 94.25 tgt 94.45/94.65 SL 93.95

SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.4965 tgt 1.4945/1.4925 SL 1.4995

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2978 HIGH: 1.3044 LOW: 1.2975 CLOSE: 1.3010

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND : BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 50(BULLISH SIGNAL)

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 93.93 HIGH: 94.23 LOW: 93.79 CLOSE: 94.15

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => -0.02( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>69(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.4994 HIGH: 1.5013 LOW: 1.4968 CLOSE: 1.4994

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => .005( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 34(BEARIISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8655 HIGH: 0.8698 LOW: 0.8652 CLOSE: 0.8678

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.5670 HIGH: 82.5940 LOW: 81.2940 CLOSE: 82.3870

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>59(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALENDER

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

Mon Mar 4

GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (FEB) 00:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price (FEB) GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (FEB) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (FEB) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (FEB) JPY Confirmation Hearing for BoJ Governor Nominee Kuroda AUD Inventories (4Q) AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (4Q) AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JAN) AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JAN) AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (FEB) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels USD ISM New York (FEB) AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (FEB) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

3.5%

Low

1.0%

0.3%

00:01

Low

13

15

00:01

Low

-0.1%

-0.3%

00:01

Low

0.1%

0.0%

00:30

Medium

00:30

Low

0.2%

0.6%

1.2%

00:30

Low

-1.0%

-1.0%

-2.7%

00:30

Low

9.9%

8.1%

12.4%

00:30

Low

-2.4%

2.8%

-1.7%

00:30

Low

3.0%

0.6%

09:30

Medium

46.8

49

48.7

09:30

Medium

-10.6

-4.3

-3.9

10:00

High

1.9%

1.9%

2.1%

10:00

Medium

0.6%

0.5%

-0.2%

14:00

High

14:45

Low

56.7

22:30
Tue Mar 5

Medium

45.3

Low

0.2%

-0.2%

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (FEB) 00:01 GBP BRC Sales Like-ForLike YoY (FEB) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JAN) AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (4Q) AUD Australia Net Exports of GDP (4Q) JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JAN) HSBC Services PMI (FEB) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAR 5) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (FEB F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN) USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (FEB) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAR) NZD Value of All Buildings SA (4Q) JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (FEB)

Low

1.7%

1.3%

Low

1.0%

1.9%

00:30

Medium

0.4%

-0.2%

00:30

Medium

-15300M

-14900M

00:30

Low

0.5

0.1

01:30

Medium

-1.7%

01:45

Medium

54

03:30

High

3.00%

3.00%

08:45

Medium

43.5

43.9

08:50

Medium

42.7

42.7

08:55

Medium

54.1

54.1

09:00

Medium

47.3

47.3

09:00

Medium

47.3

47.3

09:30

Medium

51

51.5

09:30

Low

$565M

10:00

High

-2.9%

-3.6%

10:00

Medium

0.3%

-0.9%

15:00

Medium

55

55.2

15:00

Low

47.2

47.3

21:45
Wed Mar 6

Low

3.0%

9.6%

Medium

-5.2%

Low

11.5%

00:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (FEB) AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q) AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (4Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (4Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (4Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q P) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 1) USD ADP Employment Change (FEB) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economic Outlook in Lancaster, PA CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (MAR 6) USD Factory Orders (JAN) Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (FEB) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 1) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 1) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 1) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 1) USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (FEB) NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (FEB) JPY Official Reserve Assets (FEB) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

0.6%

00:30

High

3.0%

3.1%

00:30

High

0.6%

0.5%

10:00

High

-0.9%

-0.9%

10:00

High

-0.6%

-0.6%

10:00

Medium

0.0%

10:00

Medium

-0.7%

10:00

Low

-0.2%

12:00

Low

-3.8%

13:15

Medium

168K

192K

13:15

Low

15:00

High

1.00%

1.00%

15:00

Medium

-2.2%

1.8%

15:00

Medium

58.9

15:30

Low

-1857K

15:30

Low

557K

15:30

Low

1130K

15:30

Low

-75K

19:00

Medium

22:30

Medium

36.2

23:00

Low

6.2%

23:50

Low

$1267.3B

23:50

Low

-106.4B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1) JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAR 7) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-665.4B

23:50

Low

190.4B

23:50
Thu Mar 7

Low

-82.6B

High

0.10%

0.10%

Low

2.3%

Low

0.3%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JAN) JPY Leading Index (JAN P) (JAN P) JPY Coincident Index (JAN P) (JAN P) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (FEB) EUR French Mainland Unemployment Change (4Q) EUR French ILO Unemployment Rate (4Q) EUR French ILO Mainland Unemployment Rate (4Q) CHF SNB Final Result for 2012 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB) CHF Unemployment Rate (FEB) EUR French Trade Balance (euros) (JAN) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (FEB) EUR Italian Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) EUR Italian Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JAN) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAR 7) GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAR)

Medium

-427M

05:00

Medium

93.4

05:00

Low

92.6

05:30

Low

A$46.5B

06:30

Medium

29K

06:30

Medium

10.3%

06:30

Medium

9.9%

06:30

Medium

06:45

Medium

3.1%

3.1%

06:45

Medium

3.4%

3.4%

07:45

Low

-4700M

-5349M

08:00

Low

-4700M

427.0B

09:00

Low

2.0%

09:00

Low

-0.2%

11:00

Medium

1.6%

-1.8%

11:00

Low

0.6%

0.8%

12:00

High

0.50%

0.50%

12:00

High

375B

375B

12:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (MAR) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (FEB) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAR 7) EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (MAR 7) USD Trade Balance (JAN) USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 3) USD Unit Labor Costs (4Q F) USD Non-Farm Productivity (4Q F) USD Continuing Claims (FEB 24) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JAN) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 1) USD Household Change in Net Worth (4Q) USD Consumer Credit (JAN) NZD Manufacturing Activity (4Q) NZD Manufacturing Activity Volume SA (QoQ) (4Q) JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F) JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F) JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q F) JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (JAN) JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN) JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (JAN) JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (FEB)

Low

49.5

12:30

Low

-24.4%

12:45

High

0.8%

0.75%

12:45

Medium

0.00%

0.0%

13:30

Medium

-$43.0B

-$38.5B

13:30

Medium

355K

344K

13:30

Low

4.3%

4.5%

13:30

Low

-1.5%

-2.0%

13:30

Low

3110K

3074K

13:30

Low

-0.55B

-0.90B

13:30

Low

-11.2%

15:30

Low

-171

17:00

Low

$1722B

20:00

Medium

$14.500B

$14.595B

21:45

Medium

1.6%

21:45

Low

2.6%

23:50

High

-0.4%

23:50

High

-0.1%

23:50

High

-0.4%

23:50

Medium

-1512.3B

-567.6B

23:50

Low

-626.0B

-264.1B

23:50

Low

34.2%

-199.4%

23:50

Low

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB) JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN) JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (4Q F) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB) EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (FEB) CNY Trade Balance (USD) (FEB) CNY Imports (YoY) (FEB)

Low

1.6%

23:50

Low

112.2B

98.1B

23:50
Fri Mar 8

Low

-0.6%

Medium

56.5

Medium

49.5

Medium

96

95

Medium

-$8.85B

$29.15B

Low

-8.2%

28.8%

CNY Exports (YoY) (FEB) EUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (JAN) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB) EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN) CAD Housing Starts (FEB) USD Unemployment Rate (FEB) USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (FEB) CAD Unemployment Rate (FEB) CAD Net Change in Employment (FEB) USD Change in Private Payrolls (FEB) USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (FEB)

Low

7.6%

25.0%

07:45

Low

-87.2B

08:15

Medium

-0.30%

-0.3%

08:15

Medium

-0.1%

08:15

Low

0.30%

-0.3%

08:15

Low

-0.5%

11:00

Medium

-1.2%

-1.1%

11:00

Low

0.4%

0.3%

13:15

Medium

172.0K

160.6K

13:30

High

7.9%

7.9%

13:30

High

155K

157K

13:30

High

7.1%

7.0%

13:30

High

7.5K

-21.9K

13:30

Medium

167K

166K

13:30

Medium

2.1%

2.1%

13:30

CAD Participation Rate (FEB) CAD Part Time Employment Change (FEB) CAD Full Time Employment Change (FEB) Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (FEB) USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (FEB) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (FEB) USD Change in Household Employment (FEB) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (FEB) CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (4Q) USD Wholesale Inventories (JAN)

Medium

66.6

13:30

Medium

-1.4

13:30

Medium

-20.6

13:30

Low

0.2%

0.20%

13:30

Low

14.4%

13:30

Low

10K

4K

13:30

Low

17

13:30

Low

3440.0%

34.4

13:30

Low

-0.5%

15:00

Low

0.3%

-0.1%

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