Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Contents
Returns Non Agri Commodities Currencies Agri Commodities Non-Agri Commodities Gold Silver Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities Chana Black Pepper Turmeric Jeera Soybean Refine Soy Oil & CPO Sugar Kapas

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Currencies Weekly Performance

3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 (0.1) (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) (3.6) 0.5 2.6

(0.8)

(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.7)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance

5.0 4.5 3.5

2.5
1.5 0.5 (0.5) (1.5) (2.5) 1.4

1.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 (0.6) (2.1) (2.4)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

*Weekly Performance for April contract; CPO and Mentha Oil March 2013 contract;

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Gold
Weekly Price Performance
Spot gold prices gained 0.2 percent in the last week. The yellow metal touched a weekly high of $1582.9/oz and closed at $1577.74/oz on Fridays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices declined by 1.3 on the back of appreciation in the Indian rupee and closed at Rs. 29335/10 gms on Friday after touching a low of Rs. 29111/10 gms in the last week. Expectation among the market participants that major central banks will maintain the stimulus measures to spur growth, increased worries over rise in inflation among the investors. However, European central bank and Bank of England gave no hint on further monetary stimulus thus capping an upside movement in the Gold prices. Further, optimistic global market sentiments and overall favorable economic data from US showing improving US economy pressured gold safe heaven appeal. Strength in the DX . In the coming week, we expect gold prices to trade on a negative note on the back of more than expected decline in US unemployment rate which will lead to fall in demand for the safe demand. Further, favorable retail sales and rise in consumer sentiments will decline more demand for the commodity. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will add downside pressure on the prices. Spot Gold : Support 1,565/1,545 Resistance 1,600/1615. (CMP: $1582.50) Sell MCX Gold April between 29650-29700, SL - 30050, Target - 29100. (CMP:29333)
1,690 1,670 1,650 1,630 1,610 1,590

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

31,500 1,800 31,000 1,750 30,500 30,000 29,500 29,000 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550

Factors that influenced gold prices

MCX- Near Month Gold Futures - Rs/10 gms

Comex Gold Futures - $/oz

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

83.0
82.5 82.0 81.5 81.0 80.5 80.0

Outlook

1,570
1,550

79.5
79.0

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Gold -$/oz

US Dollar Index

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Silver

Weekly Price Performance

Spot silver increased 1.4 percent in the last week. The white metal prices touched a weekly high of $29.24/oz and closed at $28.96/oz in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices ended on a positive note by 2.1 percent and closed at Rs. 54854/kg on Friday after touching a weekly high of Rs. 55236/kg. Appreciation in the Indian rupee capped the sharp gains in the prices. Upbeat global market sentiments. Rise in the gold prices coupled with mixed sentiments in the base metals pack. Further, ECB president Draghi comments that region economy will become stable supported prices.
MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance
60,000 59,000 33 32

58,000
57,000 56,000 55,000 54,000

32
31 31 30 30 29 29

Factors that influenced silver prices

53,000

28

MCX- Near Month Silver Futures - Rs/ kg

Comex Silver Futures - $/oz

However, strength in DX coupled with mixed economic data from euro region capped sharp gains in the prices.
In the coming week, we expect silver prices to trade lower taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metals complex. Further, Chinas industrial production and retail sales grew at slow pace which will also add pressure on the prices. However, favorable economic data from US will cushion sharp fall in th e prices. In the domestic markets depreciation in the Rupee might cushion downside in the prices on MCX platform. Spot Silver: Support 28.40/27.60 Resistance 29.60/30.50. (CMP:29.05) Sell MCX Silver May between 56000-56100, SL - 57800, Target 53400.(CMP:54805 )
32.5 32.0 31.5 31.0 30.5 30.0 29.5 29.0 28.5

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

83.0 82.5 82.0 81.5 81.0 80.5 80.0 79.5

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

28.0

79.0

Spot Silver -$/oz

US Dollar Index

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Copper

Weekly Price Performance

Copper prices rose by 0.4 percent in the previous week. The red metal touched a weekly high of $7790/tonne and closed at $7749/tonne in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices declined by 1.2 percent on the back of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 425.2/kg on Friday after touching a low of Rs. 424/kg in the last week. LME copper inventories gained by whopping 11 percent in the last week and stood at 509,425 tonnes as on 8th March, 2013 as against 458,775 tonnes as on 1st March, 2013. Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 0.3 percent and stood at 225,416 tonnes for the week ending on 8th March, 2013. Optimistic global market sentiments coupled with favorable economic data from US and Euro region. However, rise in LME inventories, strength in the DX along with slow growth in the Chinas industrial production and retail sales capped sharp gains in prices. Copper prices are expected to trade on a negative on the back of rising inventories coupled with slow industrial growth and retail sales in China. However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned owing to favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will exert downside pressure on the prices on the MCX. Sell MCX Copper April between 430-433, SL - 440, Target - 418. (CMP:423.55) LME Copper: Support 7615/7500 Resistance 7890/8020 (CMP: $7731.25)
LME and MCX Copper Price Performance
8,400 8,300 8,200 8,100 8,000 7,900 7,800 7,700 455 450 445 440 435

Copper Inventories

430
425 420 415

Factors that influenced copper prices.

LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

458000.00 438000.00 418000.00 398000.00 8,400 8,300 8,200

Outlook

8,100
8,000 7,900 7,800 7,700

378000.00
358000.00 338000.00 318000.00

Weekly Technical Levels

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Crude Oil
Weekly Price Performance
On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices increased around 1.4 percent. On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.7 percent on account of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4,976/bbl on Friday after touching a low of Rs.4,925/bbl in the last week.
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
5,300 5,250 5,200 5,150 5,100 5,050 5,000 98.0 97.0 96.0 95.0 94.0 93.0 92.0 91.0 90.0

US Energy Department Facts and Figures

As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories rose more than expectations by 3.8 million barrels to 381.40 million barrels for the week ending on 1st March 2013. Gasoline stocks declined by 0.6 million barrels to 227.90 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles fell by 3.8 million barrels to 120.40 million barrels for the last week.
Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Additionally, favorable economic data from the US and Euro zone led to expectations of rise in demand for the fuel which also supported an upside in the crude oil prices. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of strength in the DX coupled with restart of pipeline in North Sea which was shut for five days after leak was discovered. We expect crude oil prices to trade on a negative note due to rise in the Saudi Arabias crude oil production, restart in the North Sea pipeline along with slow industrial production and retail sales. However, expectations of positive retail sales and consumer sentiments data from US will cushion sharp fall or even reversal in the prices. Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 90.70/89.60 Resistance 92.50/93.90 (CMP:91.77) MCX Crude Oil March: Support: 4925/4870 Resistance 5010/5100 (CMP:5000)

Factors that influenced crude oil prices

MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

382 380 378 376 374 372 370 368 366 364 362 360

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

DX/ INR Weekly Price Performance

US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week. The currency touched a weekly high of 82.95 and closed at 82.73 on Friday. The Indian Rupee appreciated around 1 percent on weekly basis. Factors that influenced movement in the DX US Gross Domestic (GDP) which grew at slower pace of 0.1 percent than the forecast data leading to concerns over the global economic growth. However, sharp upside was not witnessed on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone also capped sharp gains in the currency. Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated by 1 percent. The currency appreciated on the back of selling of dollars from exporters and some custodian banks. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with inflow of dollars from Power Grid's bond issue which raised up to 20 billion rupees ($364.66 million) through sale of bonds also supported an upside in the currency. FII Inflows For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1,410.90 crores ($254.37 million) as on 8th March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.47,909.0 crores ($8,889.0 million) till 8th March 2013. Outlook We expect rupee to appreciate in the current week on back of expectations of rise in the industrial production and manufacturing output data. Additionally, inflation data is forecasted to fall which will also support an upside in the currency. Further, upbeat global market sentiments will act as a positive factor for the Indian Rupee. Strength in the DX will cap sharp gains in the currency. Weekly Technical Levels USD/INR MCX March Support 54.0/53.50 Resistance 54.90/55.50 (CMP: 54.255) US Dollar Index: Support 82.10/81.50 Resistance 83.20/83.60 (CMP: 82.69)
US Dollar Index
83.0 82.5

82.0
81.5 81.0 80.5

80.0
79.5 79.0

$/INR - Spot
56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5

54.0
53.5 53.0

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Euro

Weekly Price Performance

The Euro depreciated by 0.1 percent in the last week. The Currency touched a weekly low of 1.2955 and closed at 1.3004 against dollar on Friday.
1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.30 1.29

Euro/$ - Spot

Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

Decline in Europes Sentix investor confidence, decline in Spanish services PMI coupled with strength in DX. Further, Revised Euro GDP data showed that Euro zone growth declined by 0.6 percent and negative German factory orders. However, optimistic global market sentiments, decline in borrowing cost for Spain and ECB decision to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged to 0.75 percent cushioned the sharp depreciation in the currency. Additionally, ECB president Draghi comment that region economy will become stable also prevented sharp fall in the Euro. German Factory Orders declined by 1.9 percent in the month of February as compared to 1.1 percent rise in January. European Minimum Bid Rate kept unchanged at 0.75 percent in the month of March. European Retail Sales rose by 1.2 percent in January as compared to previous decline of 0.9 percent a month ago. European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -10.6-mark in March from earlier fall of 3.9-level in February. We expect the Euro to trade on negative note due to strength in DX, Further, its is expected that regions industrial production will decline which will exert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned as a result of upbeat global market sentiments. EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.3000) 1.2920/1.2840 Resistance 1.3100/1.3210 (CMP:

News

EURO/INR - Spot
73.0
72.5 72.0

Outlook

71.5
71.0 70.5 70.0

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Chana
Weekly Price Performance
After touching a new contract low in the early part of the last week, Chana April futures settled higher 1.1% as emergence of demand at lower levels led to short coverings. Arrivals of new crop from MP has gained momentum and thus prices have declined considerable in the past few weeks due to supply pressure. As Chana prices are near their MSP levels (Rs 3200 per qtl), demand is robust in the spot markets. This restricted further fall in prices last week. In the union budget 2013-14, although no direct move was considered for Pulses, still The Finance Minister expressed concern about the supply-demand mismatch in pulses. He said that the aggregate demand is a concern. Stating that food inflation is worrying, he said the government would take all steps to augment the supply side. According to the final figures from ministry of agriculture dated 22nd February 2012, Chana sowing is 3.6% higher at 95.15 lakh ha compared to previous year. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. After witnessing short coverings last week, chana prices may continue to trade with downward bias as supply pressure will increase further with the commencement of harvesting in Rajasthan, the second largest Chana producing state after MP. Sell NCDEX CHANA April between 3420-3460, SL -3570, Target - 3250 / 3225

Robust demand witnessed at lower levels

Government may take steps to augment supplies- Budget 2013-14

Bumper Chana output estimated for 2012-13 season

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Black Pepper
Weekly Price Performance
Pepper Futures declined for the second consecutive week on account of improvement in arrivals of the new crop from Karnataka and lower overseas demand. Prices had earlier gained sharply over the last few weeks on the back of low stocks and delay in harvesting of the fresh crop due to lack of skilled labor. The Spot as well as the April Futures settled 5.35% and 2.34% lower w-o-w. Indian Pepper is being offered at $6,900/tn (C&F NY). Vietnam and Brazil Austa is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn and $6,600/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn Averages daily arrivals stood at 20 tn while offtakes stood at 20 tn last week. According to IPC, Pepper production is expected around 55,000 tn in 2013 and carryover stocks of about 15,066 tn. According to market sources India exported 12,000 tn of pepper in 2012.
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

Global updates
Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in 2011. Vietnam pepper exports in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt. Pepper production from Vietnam decreased to 1.05 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011. Harvesting of the fresh crop from Vietnam will commence in the coming days. Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against 32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%. Pepper Futures may gain in the early part of the week due to short coverings as prices have declined sharply. Stockists who have liquidated their stocks at higher prices may stock their inventories at lower levels. Low stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. However, prices are expected to decline from higher levels due to arrival pressure from Karnataka.

Outlook

Weekly Strategy
Sell NCDEX Pepper April between 35100-35200, SL -36020, Tgt- 33900 /33700.

Source: Reuters & Angel Research

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Turmeric

Weekly Price Performance

Turmeric Futures recovered sharply last week and traded on a bullish note due to fresh export enquiries. Domestic demand from regions like Bihar, Maharashtra, Delhi, and Kolkata also pushed up the prices. Lower output expectations for 201213 crop on the back of poor sowing also supported the prices. Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year. The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them. Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode. According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the Futures settled 6.88% and 9.85% higher w-o-w. Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha). Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns. Turmeric is expected to continue to gain into the second week due to good demand from the domestic as well as the international markets. Lower production estimates may also support prices at lower levels. Arrivals of good quality crop may also support prices at lower levels. However, we may witness some profit booking at higher levels. Also, huge carryover stocks may also pressurize prices at higher levels. Buy NCDEX Turmeric April between 6400-6450, SL -5980, Target - 7070 / 7160.

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Weekly Price Performance

Jeera traded on a mixed note with some positive bias last week. Arrival pressure of the new crop pressurized prices. However, fresh export enquiries as well as demand from the domestic markets at lower levels supported the prices. Sowing in Gujarat was reported at 3.244 lk ha till Jan 13. Last 3 years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags. The Spot as well as the April Futures settled 2.75% and 1.4% higher w-o-w. Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), at par with the production in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside. According to market sources, the exports target of 45,000 tn has already been achieved. Total exports for 2012-13 season is now estimated at 60,000 tn. Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days. According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets. Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,600/tn (c&f). Jeera is expected to decline from higher levels this week on account of improvement in arrivals of the new crop. However, fresh overseas enquiries/ demand may support prices. Farmers may not also sell their stocks at low prices. Sell NCDEX Jeera Apr between 13400-13500, SL -14070, Target - 12550 / 12420.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Jeera

Effect of higher production offset by higher exports

Global supply concerns to boost Jeera exports

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

International Scenario

Outlook

Weekly Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Soybean
Weekly price performance
Soybean futures gained sharply last week and settled 7.7% higher w-o-w on account of dwindling supplies in the domestic markets coupled with firmness in the international. At CBOT, soybean futures settled 3% higher on concerns that dry weather in Argentina may hurt Soy yield.

Soy meal Exports Jump in February SOPA

Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones as compared to 3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing an increase by 55.88% over the last year. On a financial year basis, the export during April 2012 to February 2013 is 31,13,651 tonnes as compared to 34,52,791 tonnes in the same period of previous year showing a decrease of 9.82%.
According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean and mustard seed output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn and 7.36 lakh tn. USDA raised its global soybean production estimate to 269.5 mn tn as improved production prospects in Brazil offset deteriorating conditions in Argentina. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at a record 83.5 million tons, up 1 million from last month. Prospects for Argentina Soy crop have diminished due to an extended period of dry weather and is projected at 53 mn tn, down 1 mn from last month. Soybean prices may trade with upward bias on dwindling supplies in the domestic markets coupled with firmness in the international markets. However, higher soy oil stocks may cap sharp upside in the prices. Buy NCDEX Soybean April between 3480-3520, SL -3370, Target - 3690 / 3715

Oilseeds output down 1.1% , soybean and mustard up 3.2% & 11.52%

USDA Monthly Report forecast marginal increase in output estimates

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

Weekly price performance
Edible oil complex traded on a positive note last week taking cues from the oilseeds complex, especially soybean , which remained firm in the domestic as well as global markets. Crude palm oil prices at MCX and KLCE settled 0.4% and 3.4% higher respectively While, Soy oil prices at NCDEX and CBOT gained 1.8% & 1.3% respectively w-o-w. Malaysia's February palm oil stocks fell 5.2 percent to 2,443,741 tonnes from a revised 2,578,509 tonnes in January (Source: Malaysian Palm Oil Board ). Stronger palm oil purchases from China may lead to better Malaysian export numbers in March. In February, exports from Malaysia declined about 9 percent, cargo surveyors' data showed. Global palm oil output is estimated at 55.3 mn tn in 2012-13, up by 3.4 mn tn. Palm oil exports from Indonesia, the world's top producer, fell 1 percent to 1.872 million tonnes in January compared with the previous month. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-10 rose 2.2 percent to 438,549 tonnes from 429,070 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1-10. India's edible oil shipments in January hit a record 1.12 million tonnes as buyers stocked up on expectations the government would use its budget in late February to announce a hike in import tariffs. Stocks in the world's top buyer of edible oils will rise by 100,000 tonnes from January to 1.857 million tonnes, weighing on domestic prices and making it less lucrative for farmers to plant more oilseeds. Sell NCDEX Ref Soy Oil April between 695-700, SL -715, Target - 672 / 668 Sell MCX CPO March between 463-466, SL -475, Target - 449 / 447

Global Scenario

Domestic Scenario

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Sugar

Weekly Price Performance

NCDEX Sugar futures settled 0.9% higher w-o-w on expectatations that the government may soon deregulate sugar industry. Also, reports that some mills in Maharashtra have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane supported an upside in the prices. Liffe sugar settled higher by 3.9% last week on expectations that lower prices will boost Brazilian millers to make more biofuel and less of the raw sugar from cane. India, the world biggest sugar consumer, could consider easing curbs on the tightly controlled industry by next week. Decontrolling the sugar sector would, involve abolition of regulated release mechanism, removal of levy sugar obligation from industry, freer export-import policy, removal of sugar from compulsory packing in jute bags only and a transparent policy linking cane price with sugar price. Sugar output which was up by 3% during Oct-Jan period, is now down by 60000 tn during Oct 2012- Feb-2013. Brazil plans to reduce taxes on ethanol to boost production and use of the biofuel. Thus, the share of cane directed to sugar production in the 2013-14 season may decline from 49.6 % in the current period. Although supplies continue to remain high in the domestic markets , we expect sugar prices to recover as demand will now reemerge to meet the summer season requirement. Further, crushing will now start declining amid lower cane availability this season. NCDEX Sugar April Trend Sideways Support- 3050/3000, Resistance -3030/3160

India to consider lifting curbs on sugar sector by next week

India's Oct-Feb sugar output down 60,000 T on year

Brazil may convert more cane towards Ethanol

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Kapas/Cotton
Weekly Price Performance
NCDEX Kapas and MCX Cotton settled higher by 0.3% and 2.2% higher w-o-w on the back of firm international markets coupled with declining supplies in the domestic markets. ICE Cotton futures settled 3.8% higher last week as USDA reduced its global cotton stocks estimates for 2012-13 season.

India's cotton imports could top 2 mln bales in 2012-13 RTRS

India's cotton imports could jump by two-thirds to over 2 mn bales in 2012-13. as a seasonal output slowdown and stock building push domestic prices higher. India exported cotton in first part of the year to Sept. 30, 2013 as demand was amply covered by production, but it will turn to imports towards second half
Committee of secretaries of union commerce, agriculture and textile ministry have in their meeting decided to continue with current cotton exports policy. CAB has raised exports target for current year to 8 mn bales. Since the beginning of the year, export registrations have increased to 58 lakh bales from 38 lakh bales. The U.S. government on Friday last week cut its forecast of global cotton inventory for the marketing year end-July due to expectations of higher demand as China, home to the world's No. 1 textile industry, continues to bulk up its strategic stockpile of fiber. In a monthly crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reduced its estimate for surplus to 81.74 mn bales, down 120,000 bales from last month's forecast. Kapas futures are expected to trade on a positive note on account of declining supplies in the domestic markets and expected higher exports in the coming months. However, any decision taken by the industry association to augment supplies may act as a deterrent to an upside in the Cotton prices.
Source: Reuters * 2013 figs are as per Reuters survey

No Change in Cotton export policy

USDA cuts global cotton stock estimate on higher demand

Outlook

Strategy
Buy NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 930-950, SL -900, Target - 1000 / 1010

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | March 11, 2013

Thank You!

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700 Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com