Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Every month SYZ Asset Management publishes 1 month in 10 snapshots, a review of global economic activity. Since an image can be more telling than words, every month we select 10 charts illustrating the key data that has marked economic and financial activity over the month, decoding their meaning with a brief explanation.
A publication of the Research & Analysis team SYZ Asset Management - Tel. +41 (0)58 799 10 00 - info@syzgroup.com Author: Adrien Pichoud This document is based on graphics the data of which were collected in the course of 2012.
At the start of this new year we have chosen to give you a review not of last December alone but of the year 2012 as a whole. So here is 1 year in 10 snapshops 2012!
Index
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Global economy The three announced disasters have been avoided United States Right to the edge of the cliff United States The recovery in real estate speeds up Euro zone Stabilization in recession Euro zone Mario Draghi, saviour of the euro Japan Towards a much more accommodative monetary policy? Asia Exports rebound Bonds A one-way year The greenback regains its colour, but gold loses some of its radiance Energy The American revolution
1.34 54
1.32
53 1.30
52
1.28
1.26 51
1.24
50 1.22
49 J F M A US - ISM MANUF ACT URING CHINA - PMI MANUF ACT URING EUR/USD(R.H.SCALE) M J J A S O N D J
1.20
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.
2012
0 1
-3 -25
-30
-4
-35 2008 2009 2010 SYZ US domest ic act ivit y index (U. of Michigan-based) US G DP YoY%(R.H. SCALE) 2011 2012
-5
2200
90
2000
80
1800
70
1600
60
1400
50
1200
40
1000
30
800
20
600
10
400
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 US - HO USI NG ST ART S US - BUI LDI NG PERMI T S US - NAHB HO MEBUI LDERS ACT I VI T Y I NDEX(R. H. SCALE) Source: T homson Reut ers Dat ast ream
60
55
50
45
40
35
30 2006 EMU
2007 G ER
2008 FR A
2009 ITA
2010 S PA
2011
2012
2013
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.
2012
26 July 2012
86
120
84
115
82
110
80
105
78
100
95
40
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30 00 01 02 03 04 05 CHI NA - EXPO RT YoY 3M MAV KO REA - EXPO RT YoY 3M MAV HO NG KO NG - EXPO RT YoY 3M MAV 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 I NDO NESI A - EXPO RT YoY 3M MAV Source: T homson Reut ers Dat ast ream
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.
2012
115
110
105
100
95 J F M A M CG BI W O RLD G O VERNMENT BO NDS Bof A EMU G O VERNMENT Bof A EMU CO RPO RAT E J J A S O N Bof A ML G LO BAL HI G H YI ELD JPM EMBI G LO BAL CO MPO SI T E D
9. The greenback regains its colour, but gold loses some of its radiance
Since 2008 the US dollar has been hovering around its lowest level in line with investors risk aversion. While it remains the benchmark safe haven in times of peak tension (fall 2008, spring 2010, summer 2011) it suffers from ultra-expansionary monetary and budgetary policies when investors start searching again for yield. However, the gradual improvement in the U.S. economic situation and the incipient rebalancing of budgetary policy expected in 2013 offset the additional easing of the Feds policy and allowed the greenback to end the year at the same level it had started at. Gold, for its part, recorded a 12th consecutive year of rising prices in 2012, but its dynamic appeared to have run out of steam with the decrease in macro-economic risks. Its not certain there will be a 13th year of rising gold prices
GOLD (USD/OZ) AND US DOLLAR TRADE-WEIGHTED (INVERTED)
2000 68
70 1800
72 1600 74
1400
76
1200
78
80 1000 82
800 84
600 2009 2010 2011 G O LD - (USD/ O Z ) US DO LLAR T RADE-W EI G HT ED - I NVERT ED SCALE(R. H. SCALE) 2012
86
18
16 120
14 100 12
80
10
8 60 6 40 4 20
NAT URAL G AS - US HENRY HUB (USD/ MMBT U)(R.H.SCALE) Source: T homson Reut ers Datast ream
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.