Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)

Global Forecast Update; 20112016

May 2012
Under Embargo Until May 30, 2012

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.

Service Adoption Forecast

Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast

Residential Mobile Business

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

 By 2016, global IP traffic will

reach an annual run rate of 1.3 zettabytes per year

1.3 zettabytes is equal to:
10X more than all IP traffic generated in 2008 (121 exabytes) 38 million DVDs per hour

What is a zettabyte? One trillion gigabytes Approximately 1021

(1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

110 EB per mo 94 EB per mo 77 EB per mo 59 EB per mo 44 EB per mo 31 EB per mo

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 4

More Devices
Nearly 19 Billion Connections

Faster Broadband Speeds

More Internet Users

3.4 Billion Internet Users

Growth Catalysts

4-Fold Speed Increase

More Rich Media Content

1.2 Million Video Minutes/Second

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 5

North America

Western Europe

Central/Eastern Europe

2.9 Billion by 2016 CAGR 14.1%

2.6 Billion by 2016 CAGR 13.2%

1.3 Billion by 2016 CAGR 10.2%

Latin America 1.6 Billion by 2016 CAGR 12.2%

Middle East & Africa

1.8 Billion by 2016 CAGR 10.4%

Asia Pacific
8.7 Billion by 2016 CAGR 14.1%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 6

4.0 3.5 Number of Devices (B) 3.0 2.5

57.2% CAGR 20112016 3.57B

2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5 372M 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 7

49% CAGR 20112016 8

7
Number of Devices (B) 6 5 4 3 2 1
662M 372M

4.03B

3.57B

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices

Cisco Confidential

4.0

57.2% CAGR 20112016

3.5
Number of Devices (B) 3.0 2.5

1.12B
65.2% CAGR

2.45B 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

91M 281M
54.2% CAGR

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

IPv6-Capable Fixed Business Devices Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

IPv6-Capable Fixed Consumer Devices

Cisco Confidential

North America 269 Million by 2016 CAGR 1.6%

Western Europe 319 Million by 2016 CAGR 2.5%

Central/Eastern Europe 197 Million by 2016 CAGR 7.7%

Latin America 287 Million by 2016 CAGR 11.0%

Middle East & Africa 542 Million by 2016 CAGR 16.1%

Asia Pacific 1.7 Billion by 2016 CAGR 13.2%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 10

Tablet

= 1.2 X = 2.0 X = 4.1 X = 3.2 X

(monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)

64-bit Laptop/PC

(monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)

Internet-Enabled HDTV

(monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)

Gaming Consoles

(monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)

Internet-Enabled 3DTV
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

= 3.4 X

(monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)

Cisco Confidential

11

North America 3.5-Fold growth 11 to 37 Mbps

Western Europe 3.8-Fold growth 11 to 42 Mbps

Central/Eastern Europe 3.1-Fold growth 10 to 29 Mbps

Latin America 2.8-Fold growth 4.2 to 12 Mbps

Middle East & Africa 2.5-Fold growth 3.4 to 8.4 Mbps

Asia Pacific 4.4-Fold growth 8.1 to 36 Mbps

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 12

5 Mbps

10 Mbps

74% of all broadband

connections by 2016
2 Online Video (HD Streams) 1 SD Business Videoconference 1 Online music stream
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

44% of all broadband

connections by 2016 3 Online Video (HD Streams) 1 Business Desktop Conference call 4 Online music streams 1 Online Gaming stream
Cisco Confidential 13

5 Mbps

10 Mbps

100 Mbps

74% of all broadband

connections by 2016
Online Video (HD movie download)

44% of all broadband

connections by 2016
Online Video (HD movie download)

3% of all broadband
connections by 2016
Online Video (HD movie download)

41 minutes
2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

20 minutes

2 minutes
Cisco Confidential 14

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

TAM and Devices for Residential Market

TV Households 2011: 1.7 Billion 2016: 1.9 Billion Residential Internet Users 2011: 1.7 Billion 2016: 2.3 Billion Devices/Connections 2011: 2.4 Billion 2016: 5.4 Billion

Fastest Growing Residential Services

Digital TV13.8% CAGR 2011: 694 Million 2016: 1.3 Billion VoIP10.6% CAGR 2011: 560 Million 2016: 928 Million

Highest Penetrated Residential Service

Online Music 2011: 1.1 Billion 63% of Internet Users 2016: 1.8 Billion 79% of Internet Users

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 15

TAM and Devices for Consumer Mobile Market

Mobile Consumers 2011: 3.7 Billion 2016: 4.5 Billion Devices/Connections 2011: 5.6 Billion 2016: 8.4 Billion

Fastest Growing Consumer Mobile Services

Mobile Video42.9% CAGR 2011: 271 Million 2016: 1.6 Billion Mobile Service Demand Globally, consumer mobile segment has 7 of 9 services with CAGRs exceeding 20% from 2011 to 2016.

Highest Penetrated Consumer Mobile Services

SMS (Texting) 2011: 2.8 Billion 74% of Internet Users 2016: 4.1 Billion 60% of Internet Users Mobile Service Maturity SMS has the lowest CAGR (8.3 %) in the consumer mobile service category.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 16

TAM and Devices for Business Market

Business Internet Users 2011: 1.6 Billion 2016: 2.3 Billion Business Mobile Users 2011: 483 Million 2016: 569 Million Devices/Connections 2011: 2.2 Billion 2016: 5.0 Billion

Fastest Growing Business Services

Desktop Video43.2% CAGR 2011: 36 Million 2016: 219 Million LBS*42.9% CAGR 2011: 27 Million 2016: 158 Million

Highest Penetrated Business Services

Instant Messaging (IM) 2011: 470 Million
30% of Business Internet Users

2016: 745 Million

32% of Business Internet Users

SMS (texting) 2011: 364 Million

75% of Business Mobile Users

2016: 498 Million

88% of Business Mobile Users
* LBS=Location Based Services

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 17

2011

2016

Future

11.5 GB
Traffic/month
3 Online HD movie videos 13 VoD episodes 122 Online music tracks 6 HD Desktop video conferencing calls

32.3 GB
Traffic/month
2 3D Online HD movie videos 8 Online HD movie videos 38 VoD episodes 307 Online music tracks 14 HD Desktop video conferencing calls

50 GB
Traffic/month
2 Online 3D movie videos 11 Online HD movie videos 53 VoD episodes 307 Online music tracks 33 HD Desktop video conferencing calls

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 18

2011

2016

Future

26.2 GB
Traffic/month
7 Online HD movie videos 30 VoD episodes 239 Online music tracks 12 HD Desktop video conferencing calls

83.7 GB
Traffic/month
4 3D movies 20 HD movies 95 VoD episodes 683 Online music tracks

100 GB
Traffic/month
6 3D movies 23 HD movies 114 VoD episodes 802 Online music tracks 40 HD Desktop video conferencing calls

33 HD Desktop video conferencing calls

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 19

North America 27.5 EB/Month by 2016 22% CAGR, 3X Growth

Western Europe 24.4 EB/Month by 2016 27% CAGR, 3X Growth

Central/Eastern Europe 6.0 EB/Month by 2016 39% CAGR, 5X Growth

Latin America 7.6 EB/Month by 2016 49% CAGR, 7X Growth

Middle East & Africa 3.8 EB/Month by 2016 58% CAGR, 10X Growth

Asia Pacific 40.6 EB/Month by 2016 31% CAGR, 4X Growth

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 20

120,000
Non-PC Based Traffic

29% CAGR 20112016

100,000

PC-Based Traffic

31%

Petabytes per Month

80,000 60,000 69% 40,000 22%

20,000 78%
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 21

120,000 100,000 Petabytes per Month 80,000 60,000 40,000 Mobile Data (78% CAGR)

29% CAGR 20112016

10%

Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-fi (34% CAGR)
39%

51%

20,000
0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 22

120,000
Business

29% CAGR 20102015 12%

100,000

Consumer

Petabytes / Month

80,000 60,000 88% 40,000 16%

20,000 84%
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 23

90,000 80,000 70,000 Petabytes per Month 60,000 VoIP Online Gaming File Sharing Web/Data Internet Video

29% CAGR 20112016

22%

23%

50,000
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

54%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Online Gaming and VoIP forecast to be 0.73% of all consumer Internet traffic in 2016 Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 24

40,000 35,000 Petabytes per Month 30,000 25,000

Video Calling Ambient Video and Internet PVR Internet-Video-to-PC: Live Mobile Video Internet-Video-to-PC: Short Form Internet-Video-to-TV Internet-Video-to-PC: Long Form

8% 8% 8% 11%

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

14% 14%

37%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 25

14,000 12,000 10,000

Business Mobile Data
Business Managed IP * Business Internet *

22% CAGR 20112016 19%

Petabytes per Month

27% 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 54%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

* Video conferencing is included in both the Business Internet and Managed IP categories Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 26

40
Video Phones

42% CAGR 20112016

Executive Video Conferencing Multiscreen Room Video Conferencing Desktop Video Conferencing Singlescreen Room Video Conferencing Web Conferencing with Video

35 30

18% 19%

Petabytes per Month

25 20 15

61% 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Multiscreen/Executive Videoconferencing and Videophones will be 1.4 % of all business video traffic in 2015 Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 27

Total IP Traffic

110 Exabytes per month by 2016

By 2016, annual global IP traffic will reach 1.3 zettabyte

Fixed Internet

80.6 Exabytes per month by 2016

By 2016, 1.2 M video minutes cross the network each second

Managed IP

18.1 Exabytes per month by 2016

Business IP video conferencing will grow 6-fold from 2011-2016

Mobile Data

10.8 Exabytes per month by 2016

Mobile video will increase 18-fold from 2011 to 2016

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 28

IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa

Press Releases

White Papers / FAQs

Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps

IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: ask-vnisa@cisco.com

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 29

Thank you.

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Confidential

30

 In 2011, there were 2.4B residential devices and connections;

by 2016, there will be 5.4B residential devices and connections (17.3% CAGR).
In 2011, there were 5.6B consumer mobile devices and connections;

by 2016, there will be 8.4B consumer mobile devices and connections (8.3% CAGR).
In 2011, there were 2.2B business devices and connections;

by 2016, there will be 5.1B business devices and connections (18% CAGR).

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 31

 Digital TV will be the fastest growing service across all

residential service categories (TV & Internet) from 2011 to 2016 (13.8% CAGR).
Mobile video will be the fastest growing consumer

mobile service from 2011 to 2016. (42.9% CAGR).

Desktop video conferencing will be the fastest growing

service across all business service categories (mobile & fixed) from 2011 to 2016 (43.2% CAGR).

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 32

 In 2011, the average Internet user generated 12 GB/mo;

by 2016, the average Internet user will generate 30 GB/mo.

By 2016, more than one-third of total IP traffic will come

from devices other than PCs.

By 2016, wi-fi will account for nearly half of all IP traffic. By 2016, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made

will cross global IP networks every 3 minutes.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 33