Addis 2o5o : A rethink of Ethiopias energy future.

Jorge Orozco et al. Chair for Computer Aided Architectural Design [ CAAD ] Prof. Dr. Ludger Hovestadt

Addis 2o5o : A rethink of Ethiopias energy future.

Jorge Orozco et al. Chair for Computer Aided Architectural Design [CAAD] Prof. Dr. Ludger Hovestadt Institute of Technology in Architecture / Faculty of Architecture / ETH Zurich

04.12.2012 draft

This publication was edited for the conference: Addis 2050 - An Alternative Pathway into Ethiopias urban future. It describes a rational optimist scenario for future Ethiopia. This edition contains ideas to be implemented in short-to-medium terms. This ideas regard Ethiopias energy and technology future, as well as rural and urban life. This alternative pathway is inspired by the soon to be published book: Genius Planet from scarcity to abundance: a radical rethink of our energy future by Ludger Hovestadt and Vera Bhlmann.

1. intro

scarcities, catastrophes & technologies

Shortage of natural resources, global warming and melting poles, fossil fuel and nuclear disasters. New technologies, Smart Grids and Micro-grids, centralized systems. Are we using new technologies in a new fashion, or are we just applying new technologies to old paradigms ?

villages, megacities & promised lands

How can we live well in our planet ? What are cities and what should they be ? What are the drivers to migrate to the city ? Is it a promised land, or can we find happiness in villages too ? The cities are open, you are always welcome, if you follow the rules.

ciudad de mxico. Pablo Lpez Luz rice fields in china. Thierry Bornier

a new pathway

Information Technology speaks a different language. It is 30% less expensive each year and doubles its installations every 18 months. Information technology is fast and abundant. Let the power of information technology be described as a logistic problem, and not as a resource problem. We formulate a technically valid and optimistic scenario for our energy future. We will find progress, good business and a faster solutions in the paradigm of energy logistics. Energy is cleaner, faster and more efficient than we could ever imagine within the old paradigms.

Cities are intriguing and challenging. More than half of the world population is living in cities. The tendency doesnt seem to stop and it is expected to increase to 70% by 2050. A city may be defined by means of population, infrastructure or complexity. Let the city be described as a place of logistics and motivation. A place where you can do what you do best. We formulate a technically valid and optimistic scenario for cities to be. We will find progress, good business and faster solutions in the paradigm of pre-specificity. Faster and more efficient than we could ever imagine within the old paradigms.

2. the project

two :

electrify rural ethiopia provide stored-clean energy enhance road network

one : three :

one : electrify rural ethiopia

90% of ethiopians do not have access to the electricity grid

Back in 2009 over 72,000,000 of the entire population lived without electricity. We electrify Ethiopia with personal investments starting from $115 and 6 kWh. We bring clean-CO2 free energy to the game. This bottom up approach is fast, flexible and cheap. We mean to complement the big investments and make them cheaper. We will meet in the middle, win-win situation.

Rhiannon Batten at Flickr

two : provide stored-clean energy

almost 1,5oo km2 are

deforested every year

That is three times the area of Addis Ababa, every year. We provide Ethiopia with synthesized methane by means of personal investments starting from $2,400 * at 12 per litre. We bring stored-mobile-multy purpose-clean energy to rural communities. We free people from wood as energy resource. Fast and easy, winwin situation.

* price calculated based on one million units production per annum.

Gary Edenfield at Flickr

three : enhance road network

less than 14% of the total road network is paved

That is more than 38,000 km of gravel roads. Closed and slow.

We propose to prioritize the governments efforts towards rural areas. Maintaining and constructing roads which will open the opportunities to small communities. If we have roads, no matter where they go, something will happen there : roads of potentials.

Christian Plodeck at Flickr

on PhotoVoltaics

one :

When we talk about electrification in Ethiopia, the Gibe cascade is in the center of discussion. The Gilgel Gibe III dam is the latest part in operation of the project. It has a capacity of 1,870 MW and a construction cost of 1.55 billion Euros, the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa. There are difficulties for rural areas to be benefited with this approach. Mostly because they are geographically dispersed customers with small needs, small capital and little or none experience in installation. Therefore, cities in Ethiopia are electrified and rural areas are not. This leads to rural exodus and unexpected settlements that exceed the capacity of the infrastructure of the cities. Therefore, it should be of great interest to politicians to provide rural ares with electricity, information, education and technology as source of income in addition to agriculture.

Paul Snook at Flickr

there is nothing cheaper than solar, today

$ / kWh
0.09 0.07 0.05 0.02 0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

* PV vs conventional

The price comparison of electricity produced by PV and electricity produced by conventional sources shows that there is no economic alternative when we think in terms of applications instead of resources.

The thin film PV is not a technical product anymore. The installation, maintenance and engineering do not need special training. PV is an everyday product, like any electrical device.

very few products are needed for a bottom-up energy logistics

banking, with which you get paid for the electricity you sell, at the same time you pay for products in the next village. safe and instant !
With mobile banking you can buy and sell products and services instantly. If a PV is producing more electricity than needed, it is immediately sold to the neighbour, and the payment goes straight to your phone. In this way, each W is commercialized within the network. With mobile banking is possible to pay for grains or vegetables in the next village.
cordelia_persen at Flickr

and mobile

this is Leku : and 3,ooo

m2 is the area of PV needed to power the city.

In 2009, the population in Leku was 15,1oo habitants. The electric power consumption in Ethiopia per capita was 45.76 kWh.

<-- this ! 55m by 55 m

In 2o13, when the gdp per capita is $377, the cost of the Starting Kit is $123. The year payment of a five years credit is $39.

A Starting Kit in a household provides 94W, with which a

fridge, radio and water pump can be powered.

The Starting Kit consist in 1 m2 of PV, dSID, dSW and dSM.

We propose a path that doesnt require major investment. Fast, easy and inexpensive. What are the priorities within a community without electricity ? With 94W per year, a Starting Kit in the household can power various appliances during the daytime. Why to wait for 1,87o,ooo,ooo W from the Gibe cascade if you can have 94 W now ?

In 2o14, when the gdp per capita is $404, the cost of the Starting Kit is $101. The year payment of a five years credit is $32.

1o households can provide 94oW to the community,

fast and easy. The gross investment is $1,o1o and the gross income is $113*
* at 5 kWh

At this point we consider that more than one household has a Starting Kit, the electricity in the community network can be share, bought and sold. Why to wait for 1,87o,ooo,ooo W from the Gibe cascade if you can have 94o W now ?

In 2o14, when the gdp per capita is $4o4, the cost of a small farm is $560. The year payment of a ten years credit is $113.

A small farm provide 94oW for the community, producing a gross income of

$113*. The production cost is 3 kWh.

* at 5 kWh

One farmer in the community decides to use his land to harvest electricity, he starts with a small area, 1o m2. Why to wait for 1,87o,ooo,ooo W from the Gibe cascade if you can have 94o W now ?

In 2o15, when the gdp per capita is $432, the cost of the Starting Kit is $84. The year payment of a five years credit is $27.

At this point, the kits have been clustered in communities of 3o, so the max load goes up to 2,7ooW.

Share, buy and sell.

Fast, flexible, easy, inexpensive ! We are still adding 94W units to the neighbourhood, instead of waiting for 1,87o,ooo,ooo W from the Gibe cascade .

In 2o16, when the gdp per capita is $462, the cost of the Start Kit is $69. The year payment of a five years credit is $22.

The kit will no longer need PV, just the electrical components. The micro-grid can manage the existing load for the community.
The components of the Kit are the DigitalStrom Distributor for the Community and the dS Distributor for the Village. You can still add your 94W to the community, instead of waiting for 1,87o,ooo,ooo W from the Gibe cascade .

So, whats next ? The villages and farmers increasingly produce a lot of cheap electricity. They are linked to a constant network and the surplus is offered to the city.

Of course it is difficult to have a look at the future, however, if we follow the logic of this path, we will realize that the electrification problem for Ethiopia can be no longer a problem of production but a problem of logistics and that very soon we will be no longer in the business of clean-energy production but in the business of energy distribution via information technology.

on synthetic

methane

two :

When we talk about stored energy, oil reserve is in the center of discussion. An oil refinery is typically large and complex. An investment of $14B can produce over 600,000 barrels per day. The cost of crude oil, distribution and marketing is 80% the cost of the final product. From an oil reserve is also natural gas extracted. Natural-gas processing is a complex industrial process as well. An investment of $350M can produce over 11M cubic meter per day. There are difficulties for Ethiopia to be part of this game because of the lack of oil reserves and the cost of the industrial facilities. We find in synthesized methane a technically valid alternative. We see two direct applications which can benefit Ethiopia in great scale : transport and cooking.
natural gas pipeline in russia. heatingoil at Flickr.

Synthetic methane is fast, easy, cheap and clean.

SolarFuel technology uses electric

power to directly convert CO2 and water into synthetic methane (CH4).
Oxygen Electricity Photons from sunlight PV Solar Fuel CH4

Water, CO2

In the first stage of electrolysis, water is separated into hydrogen and oxygen. In the second stage, hydrogen is directly converted into methane ( CH4 ) with CO2. Here, the energy density increases by factor 3, and a marketable and manageable energy source is created which is of standard quality and which can be fed directly into the natural gas grid. The attainable level of efficiency is over 60 percent. www.solar-fuel.net

Audi is developing an industrial

facility in Werlte, Germany to produce synthetic methane (CH4) or e-gas, as they call it, to power a new series of automobiles.

the investment is over 50M

Euros and can produce 4M litres of per day.

Wind turbines are the first significant component of the Audi e-gas project. During the projects first phase, four large power plants at an offshore wind park in the North Sea are being financed by Audi and a regional power-supply company. Rated at 3.6 MW each, these four turbines are to supply some 53 GWh of electricity annually. The projects second large component is the e-gas plant. The e-gas plant is connected to a waste-biogas plant, which supplies the concentrated CO2 necessary for methanation and which would otherwise pollute the atmosphere. The plant will annually produce some 1,000 metric tons of e-gas while consuming 2,800 metric tons of CO2.

the production cost of synthesized natural gas via PV decreases, while the price of natural gas increases.
0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

11 kWh are needed to produce 1 litre of synthesized natural gas. In 2018, the production cost of electricity generated via PV will be less than the price of 1 litre of natural gas.
ncg59 at Flickr

transport alternatives

in 2007, there were 3

motor

vehicles per 1,ooo ethiopians.

That is more than 330 people sharing one unit. The means of transport in rural areas depends on pack and draft animals. A pack animal is slow and inflexible. With synthetic methane, the population will have the alternative to to use two-wheels vehicles. A scooter is fast and flexible, fuel consumption is very low and lifespan is long. A motor vehicle opens the trade between villages and gives a bigger access to services and education.

cooking alternatives

90% of ethiopian households use firewood for cooking

That is more than 14M women exposed to indoor smoke. The most important issue in the energy sector is the supply of household fuels. Burning biomass fuels for cooking results in exposure to high levels of indoor air pollution. Women in rural areas reports three times more respiratory diseases compared with women in urban areas. With synthetic methane, each household will have the alternative to safely cook anytime and anywhere. Cooking with methane will reduce both their work load, in terms of collecting scarce firewood, and their exposure to indoor smoke. Free of wood !
ILRI at Flickr

this is a small

village in the Somali region :

m2 is the area of PV needed to provide one litre per day of natural gas to each

and 1,360

household.

With one litre per day of natural gas, each family can cook for two hours, travel 30km to the next village, or illuminate the room during the night for 5 hours. What kind of village will this be, when the habitants gain eight hours at night to do whatever they do best ?

this ! --> 37m by 37 m

In 2o18, when the gdp per capita is $472, the cost of the natural gas synthesizer is $1,39o. The year payment of a ten years credit is $310.

in the same small village, the

gross income of the natural gas synthesizer is $3,8oo*

* at 13 per litre

Rhiannon Batten at Flickr

The synthesizer produces 29,2oo litres of natural gas per year : one litre per household per day. In this year, the price per litre of natural gas is 13c. The cost of electricity for its production is 12c per litre.

Free of wood, full of scooters ! What means to store energy in small cylinders ? Natural gas can reach places without physical infrastructure for its distribution. This small containers are practical and easy to handle. The natural gas can be synthesized in the village, using the electricity produced by PV and without any specialized skills. Instead of going every day to the woods to find biomass for cooking, you can go once per month next door to get a cylinder of natural gas. Synthetic methane is used to power scooters. With a scooter distances get shorter. Instead of spending half a day walking to the next village to trade products, you can spend two hours with a very low fuel consumption. Fast and cheap !

t13hman at Flickr

on connectivity

three :

The roads in Ethiopia carry about 95% of the countrys passenger and freight traffic, and provide the only way of access to most rural communities. In despite of the importance of road transport, the condition of the infrastructure has been generally poor. The access to ports, airports and markets is limited. In 2003, it was estimated that about 75% of the total area of the country is more than half a days walk from all-weather roads. The efforts to develop this infrastructure are through the Road Sector Development Program supported by the World Bank, and in the last years, over a 50,000km have been constructed or rehabilitated. The road density increased to almost 50km per 1000km2, just the average for Africa. We believe in connectivity as important driver of social and economic growth. Every road is a road of potentials.

the gesture :

The governments efforts should be around two main ideas : connect

rural areas and enhance global networks.

The capital Addis Ababa is located in the center of Ethiopia. We propose to enhance to expressways the existing roads towards neighbour countries, port and airports. Making them fast and secure. At the same time that we connect this roads with generic all-weather roads. Always available and ubiquitous. In this way, each region is connected to the rest of the country and the international network connects Ethiopia to the world.

Connect the rural areas means : access to greater opportunities and resources, better markets for agriculture and industry, tourist development and faster access to education and health services.

Connect to global networks means : more investments by means of industry, wider market for national products, international tourism, greater GDP.

connect rural areas :

The international

tourism expenditures represent only 0.45% of the GDP

The Ethiopian landscape is diverse and unexplored. One of the many potentials that we see in connecting rural areas is the development of tourism. The income via tourism in countries with similar resources, like Laos, represents 2.6% of the GDP.
ravenandlily at Flickr

enhance global networks :

Ethiopia is the worlds 7th largest

coffee producer. More than half stays in the country.

Ethiopian coffee beans are considered of very high quality. Its a 12 centuries tradition. One of the many potentials that we see in enhancing the global networks is the export of this product. With a fast and secure global network, the cost of production and distribution benefit its international merchandising.

DFID at Flickr

in summary

investment, factor 0.25

conventional vs alternative ( M$ )
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675

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The government strategy to electrify Ethiopia is by building a series of dams around the country. There are two completed dams (The Gilgel Gibe I and II), one in construction (The Gilgel Gibe III) and three other serious projects to be developed (Millennium Dam and Gilgel Gibe IV and V). Since 2008 till the completion of the last project in 2017, the annual investment is about 880 million dollars. There is no minimum investment in our bottom-up approach, nor maximum. Our path is fast and flexible. Year by year the components get cheaper and allows to get more for the same money.

appliances, factor 2
conventional vs alternative ( M )
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Every year new households in Ethiopia have access to the electricity grid. The number of new appliances in the country increases linearly. Even if the investment in our alternative path where to be constant as well, the number of new appliances per year would increase exponentially. The reason is two folded, one, the cost of the components constantly decreases, and two, the amount of appliances that can be powered by each kit or farm is multiple.

education and health

Demand driven pathway. We propose a scenario of abundance of energy and information. Where living in a mega-city is not the only way to have access to health services and education. Education is everywhere. There is no need to be in a specific place anymore to learn about math, science or a new language. What is needed is electricity, a computer and internet. Anyone can have access to free world-class education, anywhere. Health service is close. With stored-clean energy in every community and a local network the distances get short. Anyone can travel to the next health center, anytime.

phat_controller at Flickr

bottom-up and top-down

Ethiopia must operate in a sustainable fashion in order to build basis for its growth. How long until the electricity grid gets to the last village ? And how much will it cost ? There is an immeasurable flow of energy every day in our planet, ready for us to take it. This is what we need : PhotoVoltaics, 230V AC, conventional low-cost electrical appliances, and ready to use energy logistics in the power grid. This approach means no new equipment or new solar technology. In medium term we propose to use upcoming technologies as the methane synthesizer, so we store energy to open the spectrum of potentials. This new path is meant to be complementary and compatible solution for the governmental strategies for economic stability and growth. Ethiopia moving forward. Smile !

3. appendix

solar radiation in ethiopia ( year ) solar rad ( hr ) 2439 solar rad (kWh/ m2) 1920 solar rad (W/m2) 787 pv efficiency ( % ) 0.12 total ( kWh/m2 ) 230 total ( W/m2 ) 94

gdp ( citibank projection ) 2011 gdp ( B$ ) gdp per capita ( $ ) 31.70 374.13 2015 41.55 431.76 2020 58.28 540.48 2025 81.74 682.19 2030 114.64 888.16 2035 160.79 1156.33 2040 225.52 1505.46 2045 316.31 1960.01 2050 443.64 2552.40

population until 2050 2011 habitants (M) 84.73 2015 96.24 2020 107.83 2025 119.82 2030 129.08 2035 139.06 2040 149.80 2045 161.38 2050 173.81

electrifying components kits ( $ ) 5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 m2 pv ( -20% ) dSW ( -15% ) 172.80 144.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 64.00 51.20 40.96 32.77 26.21 20.97 16.78 13.42 10.74 8.59 45.63 39.68 34.50 30.00 25.50 21.68 18.42 15.66 13.31 11.31 9.62 8.17 6.95 5.91 5.02 dSM ( -15% ) 45.63 39.68 34.50 30.00 25.50 30.00 25.50 21.68 18.42 15.66 13.31 11.31 9.62 8.17 6.95 dSID ( -15% ) 15.21 13.23 11.50 10.00 8.50 7.23 6.14 5.22 4.44 3.77 3.21 2.72 2.32 1.97 1.67 dSS ( -15% ) 76.04 66.13 57.50 50.00 42.50 36.13 30.71 26.10 22.19 18.86 16.03 13.62 11.58 9.84 8.37 starter kit ( $ ) 279.26 236.58 200.50 170.00 139.50 122.90 101.27 83.52 68.94 56.96 47.11 38.99 32.30 26.79 22.23 cost kWh ( $ ) cost kWh ( $ ) cost kWh ( $ ) only pv all kit conventional 0.0900 0.0750 0.0625 0.0521 0.0417 0.0333 0.0267 0.0213 0.0171 0.0137 0.0109 0.0087 0.0070 0.0056 0.0045 0.1454 0.1232 0.1044 0.0885 0.0727 0.0640 0.0527 0.0435 0.0359 0.0297 0.0245 0.0203 0.0168 0.0140 0.0116 0.0411 0.0423 0.0437 0.0450 0.0464 0.0477 0.0492 0.0506 0.0522 0.0537 0.0553 0.0570 0.0587 0.0605 0.0623

income ( $ ) 9.46 9.76 10.06 10.37 10.68 11.00 11.33 11.67 12.02 12.38 12.75 13.13 13.53 13.93 14.35

1/x payment 55.85 47.32 40.10 34.00 27.90 24.58 20.25 16.70 13.79 11.39 9.42 7.80 6.46 5.36 4.45

interest 33.51 28.39 24.06 20.40 16.74 14.75 12.15 10.02 8.27 6.84 5.65 4.68 3.88 3.21 2.67

total payment 89.36 75.70 64.16 54.40 44.64 39.33 32.40 26.72 22.06 18.23 15.07 12.48 10.34 8.57 7.11

electrifying components farming ( $ ) 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 size ( m2 ) 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 farm ( $ ) 1834.46 1532.58 1280.50 1070.00 859.50 698.90 562.07 452.16 363.85 292.89 235.85 189.99 153.10 123.42 99.54 cost kWh ( $ ) 0.0955 0.0798 0.0667 0.0557 0.0448 0.0364 0.0293 0.0235 0.0190 0.0153 0.0123 0.0099 0.0080 0.0064 0.0052 income ( $ ) 94.63 97.55 100.57 103.68 106.79 109.99 113.29 116.69 120.19 123.80 127.51 131.34 135.28 139.34 143.52 1/x payment 183.45 153.26 128.05 107.00 85.95 69.89 56.21 45.22 36.39 29.29 23.58 19.00 15.31 12.34 9.95 interest 220.14 183.91 153.66 128.40 103.14 83.87 67.45 54.26 43.66 35.15 28.30 22.80 18.37 14.81 11.94 total payment 403.58 337.17 281.71 235.40 189.09 153.76 123.65 99.47 80.05 64.44 51.89 41.80 33.68 27.15 21.90

methane price synthetic ($/l) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.36 0.29 0.23 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 conventional ( $/l ) 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20

solar fuel input ch4 ( l ) 29200.00 ch4 ( m3 ) 17403.20 ch4 ( MJ ) 678724.80 methane ch4 ( kWh ) 188534.67 efficiency ( % ) 0.60 load ( kWh ) 314224.44 pv m2 1363.8

Dams in Ethiopia 5 Gilgel Gibe III Millenium Gilgel Gibe IV Gilgel Gibe V TOTAL Start 2008 2011 2013 2013 End 2013 2016 2018 2018 Cost ( M$ ) 1600.00 4800.00 1900.00 500.00 8800.00 Output ( MW ) 1870 6000 1472 560 9902

MAA Arch. Jorge Orozco / Scientific Assistance orozco@arch.ethz.ch Phone +41 44 633 29 99 / Fax +41 44 633 10 47 Chair for Computer Aided Architectural Design [CAAD] Prof. Ludger Hovestadt ETH Zurich / Building HPZ / Floor F Schafmattstrasse 32 / CH-8093 Zurich www.caad.arch.ethz.ch / ITA Institute of Technology in Architecture Faculty of Architecture / ETH Zurich www.ita.arch.ethz.ch