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E N D O W M E N T F O R I N T E R N AT I O N A L P E A C E
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october 2008
Iran: Is Productive
Engagement Possible?
Karim Sadjadpour
Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
S u m mary
n Although Tehran and Washington appear hopelessly divided, issues of broad mutual concern
reveal important overlapping interests.
n The United States can more effectively support democracy and human rights in Iran with policies
that facilitate, rather than impede, Iran’s modernization and reintegration in the global economy.
n The next U.S. president should not immediately seek comprehensive engagement with Tehran, as
this might enhance Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s chances of reelection in Iran’s June 2009 presiden-
tial elections.
n The United States must deal with those who hold power in Tehran, namely Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
n Given the widespread mutual mistrust between Washington and Tehran, confidence should be
built with negotiations on areas of common interest, such as Iraq and Afghanistan, rather than
those of little or no common interest, such as the Palestinian–Israeli conflict or the nuclear issue.
n When it comes to U.S.–Iranian interaction, the record shows that “secret” or “private” discussions
out of public earshot have a greater success rate. Building confidence in the public realm will be
difficult, as politicians on both sides will likely feel the need to use harsh rhetoric to maintain
appearances.
n It is imperative that Washington maintain a multilateral approach toward Iran, especially regard-
ing the nuclear issue. Tehran is highly adept at exploiting rifts in the international community and
diplomatic efforts to check Iran’s nuclear ambitions will unravel if key countries approach Iran
with divergent redlines.
n Powerful spoilers—both within Iran and among Iran’s Arab allies—have entrenched economic and
political interests in preventing U.S.–Iranian reconciliation.
2 POLICY BRIEF
A key challenge for the next U.S. adminis- ernization and reintegration in the global
tration will be devising an effective policy economy. Moreover, there are no short-term
toward Iran. The long-standing debate over alternatives: The Islamic Republic is not on
whether to engage Tehran (Senator Barack the verge of collapse, and an abrupt political
Obama is generally supportive, while upheaval could well produce an even worse
Senator John McCain is generally opposed) result. The only groups in Iran that are
completely sidesteps America’s natural inter- both organized and armed are the Islamic
ests. Iran is integral to half a dozen issues Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and
of critical importance to the United States: the Bassij militia.
the future of Iraq, Afghanistan, Arab–Israeli Although mutual mistrust and animosity
Karim Sadjadpour is an peace, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and have reached alarming proportions, paradox-
associate at the Carnegie energy security. Continuing to shun Iran ically there are have never been more voices
Endowment for International will not ameliorate any of them. Attacking calling for U.S.–Iranian dialogue in both
Peace. He joined Carnegie Iran would exacerbate all of them. The rel- capitals. In Tehran, the long-standing taboo
after four years as the chief evant question is not whether to talk to Iran, about talking to America has seemingly been
Iran analyst at the Interna- but how to do so. broken. Only five years ago Iranians could be
tional Crisis Group based in The fact that Iran continues to be a pri- imprisoned for advocating dialogue with the
Tehran and Washington, D.C. mary national security concern is evidence United States; today the country’s Supreme
A leading researcher on Iran, that Washington’s decades-long effort to Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has pub-
Sadjadpour has conducted change Tehran’s behavior by isolating the licly authorized it. In Washington there is a
dozens of interviews with country politically and economically have growing bipartisan recognition that precisely
senior Iranian officials, and
not borne fruit. Nearly thirty years after because of Iran’s troubling nuclear ambitions
hundreds with Iranian
the 1979 revolution, Iran remains the State and its outsized presence in the Middle East,
intellectuals, clerics, dissidents,
Department’s “most active” state sponsor of shunning Tehran is no longer prudent.
paramilitaries, businessmen,
terrorism, fervently opposes Israel’s existence, The next U.S. administration’s first steps
students, activists, and
youth, among others.
continues to move forward with its nuclear vis-à-vis Iran are critical, for they will set
He is a regular contributor ambitions, and represses its own population. the tenor for the next four years. As re-
to BBC World TV and radio, More than any previous U.S. administra- cent history has shown, an approach that
CNN, National Public Radio, tion, that of President George W. Bush has focuses solely on punishing and weaken-
and the PBS NewsHour with redoubled efforts to counter Iranian regional ing Tehran would be the best guarantor of
Jim Lehrer, and has written influence and weaken its government. Yet hostile Iranian policies aimed at counterbal-
for the Economist, Washing- Iran’s international influence is greater today ancing the United States. Instead, the next
ton Post, New York Times, than ever, and hard-liners have a virtual mo- administration should formulate an over-
International Herald Tribune, nopoly over power in Tehran. arching strategy that simultaneously aims
and New Republic. Dialogue with Tehran would be neither to moderate Iranian policies while creating
Frequently called upon a concession nor an acceptance of troubling more fertile ground for political reform in
to brief U.S. and EU officials Iranian behavior. Nor would it preclude si- Tehran. Talking to Iran is the first step in
about Middle Eastern affairs, multaneous U.S. efforts to counter destruc- this strategy.
he has testified before the
tive Iranian influence and policies. Finally,
Senate Foreign Relations
engagement does not mean that Washington Common Interests and
Committee, has lectured
must choose to deal with the regime at the Points of Contention
at Harvard, Princeton, and
expense of the Iranian people. The United The next U.S. administration should attempt to
Stanford Universities, and has
States can more effectively expedite democ- answer two fundamental questions. Are Iran’s
been the recipient of numer-
racy and human rights with policies that objectionable foreign policies rooted in an
ous academic awards, includ-
facilitate, rather than impede, Iran’s mod- immutable ideological opposition to America,
ing a Fulbright scholarship.
Iran: Is Productive Engagement Possible? 3
or are they held in place by America’s puni- groups—such as al-Qaeda—that are vio-
tive line toward Iran?Could a different U.S. lently opposed to American, Iranian, and
approach beget a positive Iranian response? Shi’i influences. State failure would likely
Although Tehran and Washington ap- create an influx of Iraqi refugees to Iran.
pear to be hopelessly at odds, a survey of
the issues of broad concern between the two
countries—Iraq, Afghanistan, nuclear pro-
The relevant question is not whether to
liferation, the Arab–Israeli conflict, energy, talk to Iran, but how to do so.
and terrorism—underscores the fact that
they share more common ground than first n Territorial integrity.
The implications of a
meets the eye (table 1). partitioned Iraq—namely, an indepen-
dent Iraqi Kurdistan—would be serious
Iraq for Iran, which has its own disaffected
Although U.S. and Iranian interests in Iraq Kurdish community. At the same time,
are certainly not identical, Washington has in both Washington and Tehran can live
fact more overlapping interests with Tehran in with a degree of Kurdish autonomy.
Iraq than with any of Iraq’s other neighbors.
n Sectarian harmony. Given Iran’s quest to
n Stability.
Instability and carnage provide be the vanguard of the largely Sunni Arab
more fertile ground for radical Salafist Middle East, it is inimical to its interests
Afghanistan n Reduce U.S. influence n Stability and reconstruction n Reduce Iranian influence
n Oppose Taliban
Nuclear n Right to develop the full fuel cycle n Avoid nuclear arms race in the n Iran should immediately suspend
proliferation Middle East the enrichment of uranium
Energy n Wants Organization of the Petro- n Exploit Iran’s liquefied natural gas n Wants OPEC to increase output
leum Exporting Countries (OPEC) resources to challenge Russia’s in order to reduce price
to decrease output and raise prices energy leverage over Europe
Terrorism n Supports Hamas and Hizbollah as n Oppose al-Qaeda n Considers Hizbollah and Hamas
popularly elected freedom fight- terrorist organizations—the
ers and social justice organizations main reason it considers Iran the
“most active” state sponsor of
terrorism
4 POLICY BRIEF
been supportive of the Karzai govern- able nation driven by a need to protect itself
ment and made numerous pledges of se- from unstable neighbors and a hostile U.S.
curity and economic cooperation. government? Or is Iran simply moving for-
n Opposition to the Taliban.
ward with its nuclear program to gain lever-
Iran nearly
age with the United States?
fought a war against the inherently anti-
Although threat perception, geopolitics,
Shi’i Taliban in 1998 and supported the
and national pride are important facets of
opposition Northern Alliance long before
Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the nuclear issue is
September 11, 2001.
Yet, similar to its approach in Iraq, in
The nuclear issue will never be fully resolved without
an effort to frustrate the United States,
Tehran’s behavior toward Afghanistan has
a broader diplomatic accommodation between
been at times schizophrenic and counter the two sides, whereby the United States reaches
to its own national interests. At the same a modus vivendi with Iran, and Tehran ceases its
time when Iranian officials have publicly opposition to Israel.
avowed support for the Karzai government,
Iranian state radio programs broadcast to more a symptom of the deep mistrust be-
Afghanistan have simultaneously referred tween Washington and Tehran rather than
to him as the “stooge of the United States.” the underlying cause of tension. The United
Most troubling, however, are widespread States has no confidence that Iran’s inten-
allegations from both U.S. and European tions are peaceful and believes that in light
intelligence agencies that Iran has provided of Tehran’s lack of nuclear transparency,
arms to the “enemy of its enemy,” its old hostility toward Israel, and support for ex-
nemesis the Taliban. tremist groups, it should not be permitted
In the context of an improved U.S.–Iranian to enrich uranium (the process required for
relationship, Afghanistan presents even more both a civilian nuclear energy program and
fertile ground for U.S.–Iranian coopera- a weapons program). Iran is equally con-
tion than Iraq. According to the account of vinced that Washington is using the nuclear
U.S. officials who worked closely with their issue as a pretext to stifle its technological
Iranian counterparts in Afghanistan, Iran advancement, economic development, and
played a crucial role in helping to assemble political autonomy.
the post-Taliban government and military. The nuclear issue will never be fully re-
From the U.S. perspective, a greater Iranian solved without a broader diplomatic accom-
role could be an important factor in reduc- modation between the two sides, whereby
ing Pakistani influence and reversing the the United States reaches a modus vivendi
growing role of the Taliban. with Iran, and Tehran ceases its opposition
to Israel. And if there is one goal both coun-
Nuclear Proliferation tries share, it is to avoid a nuclear arms race
Outside of a small coterie of nuclear deci- in the Middle East.
sion makers in Tehran, the precise impetus
for Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains unclear. The Arab–Israeli Conflict
Is the country’s clerical leadership set on The greatest impediment to an improve-
acquiring a nuclear weapons capability to ment in U.S.–Iranian relations is Tehran’s
dominate the Middle East and threaten position toward Israel. Though Iranian
Israel? Or is Iran a misunderstood, vulner- leaders have sometimes spoken favorably
6 POLICY BRIEF
about the prospect of normalized rela- reinforcing. Just as progress toward Israeli–
tions with the United States, since the Palestinian peace would be more likely with
revolution Tehran’s public rejection of the Iran’s acquiescence, prospects for U.S.–
Jewish state has always been vociferous and Iranian diplomatic accommodation would
unequivocal. be enhanced if advancements were made
Iran’s policy is to support armed resistance toward a two-state solution and an end of
as a prelude to a “popular referendum.” occupation.
Reasoning that “the Zionists have not pulled
out of even a single square meter of occu- Energy
pied territories as a result of negotiation,” With the world’s second-largest oil and nat-
Tehran openly supports militant groups ural gas reserves, Iran’s importance to the
such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. But rather global energy market is self-evident. Yet a
than seek Israel’s physical destruction, Iran’s variety of factors—mismanagement, sanc-
proposed solution is a scenario whereby all tions, and political tension—have made
inhabitants of Israel and the occupied ter- Iran a perennial energy underperformer. Its
oil output—around 4.2 million barrels per
The next U.S. administration should project the day—is far below the 6 million barrels it
dignity and poise of a superpower. A hostile U.S. produced before the revolution, and though
rhetorical line allows Iran’s leadership to paint the it has 15 percent of the world’s natural gas
reserves, it accounts only 2 percent of world
United States as an aggressor—both internation-
output.
ally and domestically—and absolve itself from A U.S.–Iranian energy relationship would
responsibility for its largely self-inflicted isolation be mutually advantageous. Energy coopera-
and soiled international reputation. tion between the two countries would de-
crease the political risk premium currently
ritories—Jewish, Muslim, and Christian— built into the price of oil. Increased Iranian
be given a vote to determine the country’s supply to the market would also likely reduce
future. Given that Palestinians—including the price; and the development of Iranian
those in refugee camps—now constitute national gas reserves and pipelines would
a demographic majority, Iran believes that weaken the tremendous leverage Russia cur-
a popular referendum would lead to the rently holds over Europe.
Jewish state’s political dissolution. From Tehran’s perspective, there are eco-
Even in the event of a new U.S. approach nomic imperatives to commence an energy
toward Tehran, getting Iran to recognize relationship with the United States. Given
Israel is unrealistic. Nonetheless, given that the combination of heavily subsidized gaso-
Tehran’s leaders have long made it clear line, rising domestic consumption, and stag-
that they will accept any territorial solution nating or decreasing production due to in-
agreed upon by the Palestinians themselves, frastructure deterioration, Iran’s oil exports
Iran does not need to have relations with are projected to drop. If this trend contin-
Israel or play a cooperative role in the peace ues—increased consumption and decreased
process—it only needs to refrain from play- output—Iran could conceivably become a
ing a disruptive one. net oil importer.
If deftly managed, parallel Palestinian– Such a situation will eventually force pain-
Israeli and U.S.–Iranian dialogue could cre- ful decisions. The regime will have to cut
ate new opportunities for success on each gasoline subsidies—a difficult task, given its
of the respective tracks and be mutually populist economic agenda—or will need to
Iran: Is Productive Engagement Possible? 7
change its policies and start attracting rather tial elections. If there is one thing that
than repelling outside investment. Most Ahmadinejad’s tenure has proven, it is that
likely it will need to do both. In this context, the institution of the president in Iran has
the foreign direct investment and technical real power, influence, and responsibilities.
expertise of U.S. energy companies—which Since his term began in August 2005, he
are currently prohibited from doing business has used this influence to amplify objection-
with Iran—would prove invaluable. able Iranian foreign practices while curtail-
ing domestic political and social freedoms
Terrorism and flagrantly disregarding human rights.
For more than a decade, Iran has been atop Although his reelection would not entirely
the State Department’s list of “state spon- preclude the prospect of a U.S.–Iranian
sors of terror,” due mainly to its support for diplomatic breakthrough, it would certainly
Lebanese Hizbollah and Palestinian militant make it much more difficult.
groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Absent To be clear, even without a major U.S.
either a Palestinian–Israeli settlement or a overture there is a reasonable likelihood that
U.S.–Iranian diplomatic accommodation, Ahmadinejad could be given a renewed man-
this support will likely continue. From Iran’s date. A combination of political inertia and
perspective, Hizbollah and Hamas are not name recognition has helped incumbents in
terrorist groups but legitimate freedom fight- Iran win every presidential election in which
ing organizations that have the legitimacy they have competed. More important, elec-
and support of their respective populations. tions in Iran are not free and open, and this
At the same time, however, Iran and the particular (s)election will be strongly in-
United States share a common enemy in fluenced by the wishes of Supreme Leader
inherently anti-Shi’i Salafi groups like al- Khamenei—who has been generally sup-
Qaeda, whose threat to U.S. national se- portive of Ahmadinejad.
curity is far greater than that of Hamas or Nonetheless, just as Ahmadinejad’s elec-
Hizbollah. Because Iran is wary of stoking tion in 2005 shocked most seasoned observ-
sectarian tension, it will not take a strong ers, his defeat in 2009 is certainly a possibil-
public stance against al-Qaeda, but it could ity. Given his considerable mismanagement
be a silent partner in preventing its poten- of the economy, it will be difficult for him to
tial rise in places like Iraq, Lebanon, and run on the platform of economic justice and
Afghanistan. populism that got him elected in 2005. A
major overture from the United States before
Guidelines for Engagement the elections could redeem his management
To increase the likelihood of success in style and increase his popularity, in both the
engaging with Iran, the next U.S. adminis- eyes of the public and political elites, par-
tration should adhere to seven prescriptions ticularly Khamenei. For this reason, it is bet-
in framing a process of engagement. Let us ter for Washington to begin with cautious,
briefly examine each. limited engagement with Tehran until June
2009, when Iran’s domestic situation will be
Get the Timing Right clearer.
It would be inadvisable for the next U.S.
president to immediately seek compre- Build Confidence on
hensive engagement as this might enhance Issues of Common Interest
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s chances of Given the widespread mutual mistrust be-
reelection in Iran’s June 2009 presiden- tween Washington and Tehran, confidence
8 POLICY BRIEF
Tehran’s hard-liners and enhanced Iran’s stat- it that a shipment of arms originating from
ure on the streets of Cairo, Amman, and even Iran on its way to south Lebanon or Gaza is
Jakarta as the Muslim world’s only brave, anti- “discovered.” Their intention is to leave fin-
imperialist nation that speaks truth to power. gerprints in order to sabotage any chance of
Additionally, when oil prices jump with each a diplomatic breakthrough.
threat against Iran, Iran’s nuclear program Though staying the course will require
and its financial patronage of Hizbollah and heavy expenditures of both personal lead-
Hamas become more affordable. ership and political capital, if Washington
With its weekly “death to America” dia-
tribes, the Iranian government is certainly
In Washington there is a growing bipartisan
complicit in engaging in bellicose rhetoric.
recognition that precisely because of Iran’s troubling
Yet the United States should not take its
behavioral cues from an insecure, repres- nuclear ambitions and its outsized presence in the
sive, and undemocratic regime. Instead of Middle East, shunning Tehran is no longer prudent.
reciprocating threats and name calling, the
next U.S. administration should project the pulls back from confidence building with
dignity and poise of a superpower. A hostile Tehran in retaliation for an egregious act
U.S. rhetorical line allows Iran’s leadership committed by the spoilers, the spoilers will
to paint the United States as an aggressor— have achieved their goal.
both internationally and domestically—and
absolve itself from responsibility for its Be Discreet
largely self-inflicted isolation and soiled in- When it comes to U.S.–Iranian interaction,
ternational reputation. the record shows that “secret” or “private”
discussions out of public earshot have a
Do Not Let the Spoilers Set the Tenor greater success rate. Building confidence in
Though small in number, powerful the public realm will be difficult, as politi-
cliques—both within Iran and among Iran’s cians on both sides will likely feel the need
Arab allies—have entrenched economic to use harsh rhetoric to maintain appear-
and political interests in preventing U.S.– ances. Moreover, the likelihood that spoil-
Iranian reconciliation. Domestically, these ers can torpedo the process either through
actors recognize that improved Iranian words or actions is more limited if they do
ties with Washington would likely induce not know what is going on.
political and economic reforms and com- Recognizing that its regional influence
petition that would undermine the quasi- derives in large measure from its defiance of
monopolies they enjoy with the country in the United States, Iran would likely prefer
isolation. not to publicly advertise its discussions with
Among Iran’s Arab allies such as Hizbollah the United States unless or until real prog-
and Hamas, the prospect of U.S.–Iranian ac- ress has been made.
commodation could mean an end to their
primary source of funding. For this reason, Maintain an International Approach
when and if a serious dialogue commences, More than any other actor, the United
the spoilers will likely attempt to torpedo it. States has the capability to influence Iranian
The spoilers’ tactics will vary. They may behavior, both for better and worse. To the
issue belligerent rhetoric, target U.S. soldiers extent possible, Washington must seek to
and interests in Iraq or Afghanistan, or see to maintain a multilateral approach toward
10 POLICY BRIEF
Iran, especially regarding the nuclear issue. three decades of compounded mistrust and
Like Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Tehran is ill will, the results of any process of engage-
highly adept at identifying and exploiting ment will not be quick; such antagonism
rifts in the international community, and will not melt away after one, two, or even
diplomatic efforts to check Iran’s nuclear many meetings. The initial pace will likely
ambitions will unravel if key countries be painfully slow, as each side ascertains
approach Iran with competing redlines. whether the other truly has good inten-
A common approach by the European tions. Furthermore, given the potentially
Union and the United States is imperative. enormous implications that a changed rela-
Given their divergent national interests, tionship with Washington would have for
the Islamic Republic’s future, there are a
A successful approach could bring about a variety of reasons why even a sincere, sus-
change in Iranian foreign policy behavior, but tained American attempt at dialogue may
even an unsuccessful attempt could have impor- not initially bear fruit.
On a structural level, the competing am-
tant domestic ramifications in Tehran.
bitions of various factions and institutions in
Tehran may render the regime incapable of
it may not be possible to unite China and reaching an internal agreement that would
Russia behind the U.S. position, although break with the past. Because of this faction-
Moscow certainly has an interest in avoiding alism, the Islamic Republic has historically
the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran within tended to make difficult decisions only un-
missile range. A more robust U.S. effort at der duress; today, intoxicated by their new-
direct dialogue with Tehran will assuage in- found standing, Iran’s hard-liners may not
ternational concerns about U.S. intentions feel compelled to make any compromises.
and send the signal to the European Union, The inertia of entrenched policies and slo-
Moscow, and Beijing that the United States gans may prevail, despite Washington’s best
is serious about reaching a diplomatic resolu- efforts.
tion to this dispute, which over time should Iran’s hard-liners—perhaps including
strengthen the coalition. Khamenei—might also perceive reconcili-
ation with Washington as a threat to their
What Is the Realistic interests and even survival, given the unpre-
Goal of Engagement? dictable domestic changes it might catalyze.
Around the same time the next U.S. presi- Khamenei’s writings and speeches suggest
dent is inaugurated, the Iranian revolution that he agrees with Western advocates who
will mark its thirtieth anniversary. Given argue that Iran’s opening up to the United
Iran: Is Productive Engagement Possible? 11
States would spur major cultural, political, economic conditions despite the recent tri-
and economic reform. What ideological pling of oil prices. Though the Iranian street
foundation would the Islamic Republic be has seemingly put the onus of U.S.–Iranian
left with if it abandoned its opposition to antagonism on the shoulders of the Bush
the United States and Israel, two of the three administration, if it were to become obvious
remaining ideological pillars of the revolu- that their own government is the obstacle, it
tion (the other being the mandatory hejab could well spark renewed political activism.
for women)? Ultimately, with the correct timing, the
At the same time, an outright rejection of United States has much to gain and little to
a U.S. overture could prove costly for Iran’s lose by reversing its policies of the past three
leadership. Behind the scenes, a sizable por- decades and beginning an effort to establish
tion of the country’s political and military working relations with the Islamic Republic.
elite recognize that the “death to America” The process will be slow, difficult, and ir-
culture of 1979 is no longer constructive to- ritating, and it will require a deep commit-
day. They know that, despite its enormous ment and tremendous patience. It will also
natural and human resources, Iran will never require a major effort to explain at home
be able to achieve its full potential as long and to maintain public support in the face
as its relationship with the United States of near-certain Iranian difficulty committing
remains adversarial. At the moment, many to a new approach for its part. It is nonethe-
of them believe that America, not Iran, op- less necessary to try. No realistic alternative
poses the prospect of improving relations. would serve U.S. national security impera-
When and if it becomes evident that a small tives. A successful approach could bring
clique of hard-liners in Tehran is the chief about a change in Iranian foreign policy
impediment, internal opposition will build, behavior, but even an unsuccessful attempt
and potentially large, unpredictable cleav- could have important domestic ramifica-
ages could be created. tions in Tehran. n
The pressure could also build on a popu-
lar level. Two-thirds of Iranians are under The Carnegie Endowment normally does not
thirty-three years of age, and few have any take institutional positions on public policy
inherent enmity toward the United States or issues; the views presented here do not
any special affinity for the Islamic revolution. necessarily reflect the views of the Endowment,
This political moderation is coupled with its officers, staff, or trustees.
widespread economic discontent; Iran is
perhaps the only major oil-producing coun- © 2008 Carnegie Endowment for International
try whose population claims a worsening of Peace. All rights reserved.
www.CarnegieEndowment.org
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