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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| March 13, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report


Wednesday| March 13, 2013

Highlights
Indias industrial production rose by 2.4 percent in January. Japans Consumer Confidence increased to 44.3-mark in February. German WPI declined to 0.1 percent in the last month. UKs Manufacturing Production declined by 1.5 percent in January. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today on the back of expectations that rise in the global market sentiments were too high and profit booking is seen at higher levels. Indias industrial production rose by 2.4 percent in January as against a decline of 0.6 percent in December. Manufacturing output increased by 2.7 percent in January from previous fall of 0.7 percent a month ago. Consumer prices index was at 10.91 percent in February as compared to 10.79 percent in January.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5914.1 19564.9 14450.06 1552.5 16024.0 1993.3 58497.8 12314.8 92.54 1591.50 2913.10 7829.50 102.09 Prev. day -0.5 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.0

as on March 12, 2013 WoW 2.2 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 -1.2 4.6 -0.1 1.9 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.3 MoM -0.1 0.0 3.1 2.2 -3.1 2.4 0.7 8.0 -5.1 -3.2 -6.0 -0.2 0.3 YoY 8.9 7.0 11.5 13.2 -2.6 2.7 -14.5 24.5 -13.0 -6.3 -12.7 -7.3 -0.9

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and depreciated marginally in yesterdays trading session on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with range bound US markets. Additionally, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments also lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, decline in German WPI data also exerted downside pressure on the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.425 and closed at 82.60 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of favorable industrial production and manufacturing output data from the country. Additionally, selling of dollars from exporters coupled with constant foreign inflows also supported an upside in the currency. Further, upbeat domestic market sentiments also acted as a positive factor for the currency. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day high of 54.065 and closed at 54.14 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.3,784.50 crores ($691.05 million) as on 12th March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.50,282.70 crores ($9,325.60 million) till 12th March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of selling of dollars from exporters, favorable industrial production and manufacturing output data in yesterdays trade along with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of positive wholesale prices index data in tomorrows session will also support an upside in the currency. However, mixed global market sentiments coupled with dollar demand from importers can cap sharp gains or even reversal in the currency.

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.60 54.14 54.37 54.37 Prev. day 0.0 0.3 -0.48 -0.46

as on March 12, 2013 WoW 0.5 1.5 -1.42 -1.41 MoM 3.0 -0.7 0.64 0.66 YoY 4.0 -7.7 8.35 8.36

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for March 13, 2013 Support 54.30/54.15 Resistance 54.55/54.70

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Currencies Daily Report


Wednesday| March 13, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade as the European Central Bank council member Jens Weidmann gave the hint that ECB may continue its monetary stimulus measures. Further, mixed global market sentiments also added downside pressure. German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.6 percent in the month of February. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 0.1 percent in February as against a rise of 0.3 percent in January. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.299 and closed at 1.3032 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiment coupled with comments from ECB council member Jens Weidmann. Further, expectation of decline in Europes industrial production may add downside pressure. However, weakness in DX may cushion sharp depreciation in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 70.60/70.45 70.95/71.15 valid for March 13, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3032 70.45 70.7 70.7 Prev. day -0.1 0.4 -0.37 -0.36

as on March 12, 2013 WoW -0.1 1.3 -1.53 -1.53 MoM -3.1 2.7 -2.65 -2.63 YoY -0.9 7.51 7.54

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on March 12, 2013

GBP/INR
Last Prev. day -0.07 -0.491 -0.53 WoW -1.5 -2.91 -3.23 MoM -4.9 -4.40 -3.98 YoY -4.7 3.18 3.18

The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of negative Manufacturing data from UK along with mixed global market sentiments. Further decline in UK Industrial production also added downside pressure. UKs Manufacturing Production declined by 1.5 percent in January as against a rise of 1.5 percent a month ago. Trade Balance was at a deficit of 8.2 billion Pounds in January from earlier deficit of 8.7 billion Pounds in December. Industrial Production fell by 1.2 percent in January as compared to rise of 1.1 percent in prior month. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.4829 and closed at 1.4902 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with rise in worries among the investors over the UKs economic conditions. However, weakness in DX may cushion sharp depreciation in currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for March 13, 2013 Support 80.70/80.40 Resistance

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.4902 80.704 80.89

80.88

-0.50

-3.24

-4.00

3.16

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

81.25/81.60

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Currencies Daily Report


Wednesday| March 13, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, rise in consumer confidence data from the country also supported an upside in the currency. Japans Consumer Confidence increased by 1 point to 44.3-mark in February as against a rise of 43.3-level in January. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 95.62 and closed at 96.06 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, expectations of stimulus measures from Bank of Japan will also add support upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 13, 2013 Support 56.45/56.10 Resistance 57.20/57.60
Source: Telequote

as on March 12, 2013 Last 96.06 0.565 56.78 56.77 Prev day -0.2 0.34 -0.22 -0.26 WoW 3.0 -4.03 -4.09 -4.08 MoM 2.8 -99.01 -0.96 -1.02 YoY 16.8 -6.86 -6.99 -6.99

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on March 13, 2013


Indicator Industrial Production m/m Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Import Prices m/m Business Inventories m/m Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction Country Europe US US US US US US Time (IST) 3:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 9:00pm 10:30pm Actual Forecast -0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 2.3M Previous 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 3.8M 2.05/2.7 Impact Medium High High Medium Medium Medium Medium

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