Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | March 12, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | March 12, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Open High

Indias industrial production rose by 2.4 percent in January. German WPIdeclined to 0.1 percent in the last month. UKs Manufacturing Production declined by 1.5 percent in January. European equities are trading lower today on the back of unfavorable economic data from UK and Euro region. Asian markets ended on a negative note and US stock futures are trading in the red. Indias industrial production rose by 2.4 percent in January as against a decline of 0.6 percent in December. Manufacturing output increased by 2.7 percent in January from previous fall of 0.7 percent a month ago. Consumer prices index was at 10.91 percent in February as compared to 10.79 percent in January. UKs Manufacturing Production declined by 1.5 percent in January as against a rise of 1.5 percent a month ago. Trade Balance was at a deficit of 8.2 billion Pounds in January from earlier deficit of 8.7 billion Pounds in December. Industrial Production fell by 1.2 percent in January as compared to rise of 1.1 percent in prior month. German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.6 percent in the month of February. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 0.1 percent in February as against a rise of 0.3 percent in January. Spot gold prices traded on a positive note and increased 0.25 by percent on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to increase in the safe heaven demand from investors. Strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) capped sharp gains in the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices. Taking cues from weak global market sentiments, downside in base metals pack along with strength in the DX, Spot silver prices declined by 0.1 percent today. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of upside in the gold prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. The base metals complex declined on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, mixed LME inventories also added downside pressure on the prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee exerted further downside pressure on the prices. Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.15 percent taking cues from expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally weak global market sentiments led to expectations of fall in demand for the fuel. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to rise by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending on 8th March 2013.

as at 4.30 pm 12 March 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5944.60 19675.81 12433.60 2006.84 16068.13

5952.00 19697.84 12461.97 2007.44 16228.92

5893.65 19505.75 12314.81 1990.17 16058.61

5914.10 19564.92 12314.81 1993.34 16058.61

-0.48 -0.41 -0.28 -0.50 0.33

Source: Reuters

Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 12 March 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.68 1.3042 54.405

82.82 1.3046 54.418

82.64 1.299 54.21

82.715 1.3011 54.31

0.16 -0.25 -0.04

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 12March 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May13 MCX Silver May13 Crude Oil Nymex Apr 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Mar 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper April13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Mar13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Mar13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Mar13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Mar13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1581.40 1579.80 29336.0 28.95 28.23 54672 91.94 110.13 4981 7776.25 425.55 1965.50 106.20 2204 119.60 16875 915.90 1962.00 105.05

1584.71 1581.80 29400.0 29.04 28.94 54780 92.28 110.28 5008 7787.25 425.80 1984.00 106.90 2217 119.90 16875 916.60 1964.00 105.40

1579.64 1579.80 29322.0 28.86 28.84 54582 91.60 109.55 4981 7722.00 423.80 1959.00 105.70 2194 118.80 16747 911.20 1949.50 104.60

1584.41 1581.80 29321.0 28.98 28.84 54593 91.92 109.90 4978 7742.25 425.60 1966.00 106.00 2199 119.20 16820 916.00 1950.50 104.90

0.25 0.25 0.50 -0.10 -0.10 0.60 -0.15 -0.29 0.46 -0.33 -0.22 0.13 0.05 -0.18 0.04 -0.18 -0.08 -0.38 -0.14

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | March 12, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook For the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, US trade balance is expected to come on a negative note which will also add downside pressure on the prices. Crude oil prices will trade lower as a result of expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories from API.

Technical Outook for evening session 12 March 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver May13 Spot Silver Brent Crude Mar13 Crude Oil Mar13 Nymex Crude Oil Apr13 Natural Gas Mar13 LME Copper Copper April13 Zinc Mar13 Lead Mar13 Aluminum Mar13 Nickel Mar13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29260 1575 54350 28.70 5927 4950 90.8 196.4 7660 421.6 104.1 117.8 103.25 906 Support 1 29350 1580 54650 28.95 5952 4978 91.6 197.7 7720 423.8 105.4 118.6 104.1 911 CMP 29448 1593 54960 29.2 5970 5000 91.95 199.3 7740 424.4 106 119.15 104.75 914.6 Resistance1 29510 1600 55230 29.35 5992 5024 92.4 200 7800 427.5 107.4 120.4 105.5 921.2 Resistance 2 29580 1605 55440 29.47 6018 5051 92.9 201 7840 429.5 108.8 121.6 106.5 926.4

Important Events for Today

Indicator BSI Manufacturing Index Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Tertiary Industry Activity m/m RICS House Price Balance Manufacturing Production m/m Trade Balance NIESR GDP Estimate Federal Budget Balance Country Japan Japan Japan UK UK UK UK US Time (IST) 5:20am 5:20am 5:20am 5:31am 3:00pm 3:00pm 8:30pm 11:30pm Actual -4.6 -1.1% -6% -1.5% -8.2B Forecast -6.2 -0.1% -1% 0.1% -8.8B -220.0B Previous -10.3 1.4% -4% 1.6% -8.9B 0.0% 2.9B Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium