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POPULATION (millions)
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http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpopinfo.html
Births
132,639,868 11,053,322 363,397 15,142 252 4.2
Deaths
55,238,376 4,603,198 151,338 6,306 105 1.8
Natural increase
77,401,492 6,450,124 212,059 8,836 147 2.5
420 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 1980
60% of the population increase in the United States between 1994 and 2050 will be attributable to immigration and the descendants of immigrants.
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
Is the human population approaching the Earths carrying capacity? Density-dependent effects
Will the human population overshoot the Earths carrying capacity causing environmental degradation?
The famine of Tamil Nadu at around 1876-78 where an estimated 3.5-4 million people died
Dregne, H. E., and N-T. Chou. 1992. Global desertification dimensions and costs. In Degradation and restoration of arid lands. Lubbock: Texas Tech. University
Global population tripled in the 20th century, but water usage increased by a factor of six. Assuming that the world population increases from six to eight billion by 2025, there is growing concern that four billion people - or as much as 50% of world population in 2025) globally may face water stress. Under particular stress are key regions in China, India, the Middle East, Europe, Australia, and North America, including the western part of the United States.
According to UNEP's definition, an area is experiencing water stress when annual water supplies drop below 1,700 m3 per person. When annual water supplies drop below 1,000 m3 per person, the population faces water scarcity.
http://www.sos2006.jp/english/rsbs_summary_e/2-4-food-and-water.html
Locations in the basins of southern California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico where substantial ground-water level declines have been measured.
Major Threats to Biodiversity 1. Human population growth 2. Habitat destruction 3. Overexploitation 4. Invasive species 5. Global climate change
Habitat Destruction
New Mexico
Major Threats to Biodiversity 1. Human population growth 2. Habitat destruction 3. Overexploitation 4. Invasive species 5. Global climate change
Overexploitation
loss of genetic diversity change in relative abundances
food web structure ecosystem function species interactions
http://woodsmoke.edc.uri.edu/Portal/
Photograph from the mid-1870s of a pile of American bison skulls waiting to be ground for fertilizer
Major Threats to Biodiversity 1. Human population growth 2. Habitat destruction 3. Overexploitation 4. Invasive species 5. Global climate change
Invasion Biology
Charles Elton (1958) argued that biological invasions ...are so frequent nowadays in every continent and island, and even in the oceans, that we need to understand what is causing them and try to arrive at some general viewpoint about the whole business.
Elton, C.S. (1958) The Ecology of Invasions by Animals and Plants, Chapman & Hall
"On a global basis...the two great destroyers of biodiversity are, first habitat destruction and, second, invasion by exotic species - E.O. Wilson
Wilson, E. 0. 1997. Strangers in Paradise. Island Press, Washington, D.C.
Trade Impacts
losing competitive advantage in an export market and possibly the premium from supplying disease-free products.
Economic Costs
Globally, the cost of damage caused by invasive species has been estimated at close to US$1.5 trillion annuallyclose to 5 percent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In developing countries where agriculture accounts for a higher proportion of GDP, the negative impact of invasive species on food security and economic development is much higher.
http://web.worldbank.org
Flaws in the Pimentel study: First, the methods applied to estimating costs are anecdotal in nature. No systematic empirical methods of estimating costs, which would have provided a statistical basis to judge the validity of the estimates, were applied. There was also no attempt to incorporate ecosystems services. Finally, there was no explicit consideration of the potential benefits provided by some of these invasive species (such as the recreational benefits from introduced game fish).
Ecosystem Services
Purification and Detoxification
filtration, purification and detoxification of air, water and soils
www.eftec.co.uk
Cycling Processes
nutrient cycling, nitrogen fixation, carbon sequestration, soil formation
Habitat Provision
refuge for animals and plants, storehouse for genetic material
Information/Life-fulfilling
aesthetic, recreational, cultural and spiritual role, education and research
economic damages associated with alien invasive species effects and their control amount to approximately $120 billion/year. about 400 of the 958 species that are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act are considered to be at risk primarily because of competition with and predation by non-indigenous species
Mammals
About 20 species of mammals have been introduced into the US
including dogs, cats, horses, burros, cattle, sheep, pigs, goats, and deer
goats (Capra hirus) introduced on San Clemente Island are responsible for the extinction of 8 endemic plant species as well as the endangerment of 8 other native plant species there are an estimated 250 million rats in the United States the total cost of destruction of stored grains by rats is estimated at more than $19 billion per year
There are an estimated 63 million pet cats in the United States plus as many as 30 million feral cats about 465 million birds are killed by cats per year the total damage to U.S. bird population is approximately $14 billion/yr feral dog packs in Texas cause more than $5 million in livestock losses each year
Pablo Picasso Cat Eating a Bird, 1939
an estimated 4.7 million people are bitten by feral and pet dogs annually, with 800,000 cases requiring medical treatment Centers for Disease Control estimates medical treatment for dog bites costs $165 million/yr, and the indirect costs, such as lost work, increase the total costs of dog bites to $250 million/yr
Damages vegetation and destroys habitat in wetlands can serve as hosts for several pathogens, including tuberculosis and septicemia, which are transmissible to people, pets, and livestock. In addition, nutria can carry parasites, such as nematodes, blood flukes, tapeworms, and liver flukes. thought to be responsible for amount $6 million to crops alone
Birds
Approximately 97 of the 1,000 bird species in the United States are exotic - 56% are considered pests The single-most serious pest bird in the United States is the exotic common pigeon (Columba livia) cause an estimated $1.1 billion/yr in damages These control costs do not include the environmental damages associated with pigeons, which serve as reservoirs and vectors for over 50 human and livestock diseases, including parrot fever, ornithosis, histoplasmosis, and encephalitis
Fish
A total of 138 non-indigenous fish species has been introduced into the United States
Florida = 50 species California = 56 species Hawaii = 33 species
Forty-four native species of fish are threatened or endangered in the United States by non-indigenous fish species a conservative estimate puts the economic losses due to exotic fish at more than $1 billion annually
http://www.aphis.usda.gov
Projected Distribution
Hybridization
Of 26 animal species that have gone extinct since being listed under the Endangered Species Act, at least three were wholly or partly lost because of hybridization with invaders. Rainbow Trout x Cutthroat Trout x Gila Trout x Apache Trout Mallards x New Zealand Gray Duck x Hawaiian Duck x Florida Mottled Duck Sika Deer x Red Deer Ruddy Ducks x White-headed Ducks
Major Threats to Biodiversity 1. Human population growth 2. Habitat destruction 3. Overexploitation 4. Invasive species 5. Global climate change
Global Temperature and CO2 Over The Past 450 Thousand Years Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001
What are the consequences of global warming? Depends on the magnitude of change
Climate Projections
Sea-level rise
Solenopsis invicta
Every 1C increase in sea surface temperatures (El Nio region 3.4 ) was followed by a 19.4% (95% CI: -4.7-43.5) increase in dengue incidence (18 weeks later). Climate and weather factors play a small but significant role in dengue transmission in Matamoros, Mexico.