Commodities Daily Report

Friday| March 15, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| March 15, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.7 percent in February. India's WPI increased to 6.84 percent in the last month. US Unemployment Claims declined to 332,000 for w/e on 8th March. Japans Revised Industrial Production fell to 0.3 percent in January.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.18 Prev day 0.3

as on 14 March, 2013 w-o-w 0.5 m-o-m -0.4 y-o-y -7.9

Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of unexpected decline in US jobless claims data coupled with expectations of stimulus measures from Bank of Japan. US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.7 percent in February as against a rise of 0.2 percent in January. Unemployment Claims declined by 10,000 to 332,000 for the week ending on 8th March from earlier rise of 342,000 in prior week. Core PPI remained unchanged at 0.2 percent in the month of February. Current Account was at a deficit of $110 billion in fourth quarter of 2012 when compared to previous deficit of $112 billion in Q3 of 2012. India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose to 6.84 percent in February from earlier rise of 6.62 percent in January US Dollar Index (DX) depreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, unexpected decline in US unemployment claims exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive which also acted as an unfavorable factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.44 and closed at 82.623 on Thursday. The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and depreciated marginally in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of unexpected rise in the countrys inflation coupled with strength in the DX in the early part of the trade. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of upbeat domestic market sentiments along with expectations of cut in key rates by the central bank of the country in the next week. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 54.525 and closed at 54.32 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4,868.40 crores th ($890.75 million) as on 14 March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.51,366.50 crores ($9,525.30 million) till 14 March 2013.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3004

0.3

-0.8

-2.7

-0.2

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.62

-0.3

0.6

2.6

4.0

5909.0

1.0

0.8

0.2

9.8

SENSEX

19570.4

1.1

0.8

0.4

7.0

DJIA

14539.1

0.6

1.5

4.0

10.2

S&P

1563.2

0.6

1.2

2.8

12.0

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, European nation members in the EU summit focused more on restoring growth and less on austerity measures also supported currency to gain strength. European Employment Change declined by 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012 as against a fall of 0.1 percent in Q3 of 2012. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3032 and closed at 1.3004 against dollar on Thursday. Japans Revised Industrial Production fell to 0.3 percent in January as against a rise of 1 percent a month ago.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| March 15, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices increased by 0.2 percent in the yesterday trading session on the back of weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments. Further, expectation among the investors that major central bank may continue with monetary stimulus measures. However, favorable economic data from US showing growth in economy pressured the demand for safe haven. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1593/oz and closed at $1589.8/oz on Thursday trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on negative note in the yesterday trading session and closed at Rs29389/10 gms after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 29260/10 gms on Thursday. Depreciation in the Indian rupee cushioned sharp decline in prices.
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1589.8 Prev. day 0.2 as on 14 March, 2013 WoW 0.7 MoM -2.7 YoY -3.2

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (April13) MCX Gold (April13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

29350.0

-0.7

-0.3

-3.0

8.3

1586.0

-0.2

0.4

-3.6

-3.5

$/oz

1590.6

-0.1

1.0

-2.7

-6.1

Rs /10 gms

29389.0

-0.3

0.0

-3.5

7.1

Source: Reuters

Silver
Spot silver prices ended on negative note by 0.3 percent on Thursday However, weakness in DX, favourable economic data from US along with optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp downside in prices. The white metal prices touched an intra-day low of $28.53 /oz and closed at $28.8/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices ended on a negative note by 0.9 percent and closed at Rs. 54289/kg after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 54084/kg on Thursday. Depreciation in the Indian rupee prevented sharp declines in prices on MCX. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 28.8 54790.0 Prev day -0.3 -1.1 as on14 March, 2013 WoW -0.3 -1.1 MoM -5.2 -6.0 YoY -10.3 -4.6

$/oz $/ oz

2864.0 2877.2

-1.6 -0.5

-1.3 0.0

-7.3 -5.2

-12.8 -10.5

Rs / kg

54289.0

-0.9

-0.7

-4.1

-5.1

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative note on the back of expectation of decline in inflation data from US. Further, expectation of favourable economic data from US showing growth in economy will pressure the demand for safe haven. However, weakness in DX will cushion sharp decline in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will add further downside pressure on prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for March 15, 2013 Support 1583/1577 29260/29140 28.60/28.50 54000/53700 Resistance 1596/1602 29500/29610 29.00/29.20 54600/54900

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| March 15, 2013

Energy

International Commodities
Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (April 13) ICE Brent Crude (March13) MCX Crude (Mar 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 93.0 109.3 93.0 Prev. day 0.6 0.5 0.6 WoW 1.6 -2.1 1.6 as on 14 March, 2013 MoM -4.4 -8.7 -4.4 YoY -11.8 -14.9 -11.8

Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased by 0.6 percent taking cues from unexpected decline in US unemployment claims which led to expectations of rise in demand for the fuel coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on the back of rise in the US crude oil inventories, increase in OPEC production along with rise in US output at highest level since July 1992. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $93.25/bbl and closed at $93.03/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.2 percent and closed at Rs.5,031/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.5,011/bbl on Thursday. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the prices on the MCX.

$/bbl

109.4

0.8

-1.6

-7.3

-12.4

Rs/bbl

5031.0

-0.2

1.0

-4.3

-5.8

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Mar 13)

as on 14 March, 2013

Natural Gas
Nymex natural gas prices rose by more than 4 percent yesterday on the back of more than expected decline in US natural gas inventories coupled with forecast for cooler winter weather conditions. Weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the prices. Gas prices touched an intra-day high of $3.834/mmbtu and closed at $3.831/mmbtu on Thursday. On the domestic front, prices increased by 2.3 percent and closed at Rs.205.70/mmbtu after touching an intra-day high of Rs.206.50/mmbtu in yesterdays trading session. EIA Inventories Data US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly inventories yesterday and US natural gas inventory declined more than expected by 145 billion cubic feet (bcf) which stood at 1.938 trillion cubic feet for the week ending on 8th March 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil to trade higher on the back of upbeat global market sentiments, decline in unemployment claims leading to expectations of rise in demand for fuel along with weakness in the DX. Further, fall in inflation data, rise in industrial production and increase in consumer sentiments data from US will also support an upside in the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will cushion sharp upside in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude March 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for March 15, 2013 Support 92.70/92.00 5010/4970 Resistance 93.70/74.20 5060/5090
Source: Telequote

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.831 205.7

Prev. day 4.1 2.3

WoW 6.95 4.84

MoM 20.85 20.79

YoY 68.03 76.26

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

SSource: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| March 15, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments, unexpected decline in US unemployment claims along with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of mixed LME inventories coupled with deficit in the US current account. On the MCX, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Mar13) Rs /kg 105.6 -0.3 -1.0 -7.9 -4.8 $/tonne 1974.0 0.1 -0.4 -8.3 -11.4 Rs/kg 426.3 -0.3 -0.2 -4.4 -0.6 $/tonne Last 7804.3 Prev. day 0.2 as on 14 March, 2013 WoW 0.7 MoM -0.5 YoY -7.4

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack increased by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments, unexpected fall in the US jobless claims along with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of rise in LME Copper inventories by 0.3 percent which stood at 522,250 tonnes. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7831.25/tonne and closed at $7804.30/tonne yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices fell by 0.3 percent and closed at Rs. 426.30/kg on Thursday after touching an intra-day low of Rs 425.9./kg. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented further fall in the prices on the MCX. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade higher on the back of optimistic global market sentiments along with expectation of favourable economic data from US. Further, positive job data from US in yesterdays trade coupled with weakness in DX will also support upside in prices. In the Indian markets, Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap sharp upside movement in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper April13 Rs /kg valid for March 15, 2013 Support 424/421 Resistance 428/430

LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Mar13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Mar13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Mar13)

$/tonne

17191.0

1.3

3.5

-5.9

-12.0

Rs /kg

932.3

0.9

2.7

-5.3

-4.9

$/tonne

2250.8

0.0

1.8

-6.7

6.9

Rs /kg

121.4

-0.6

1.0

-6.5

15.0

$/tonne

1977.5

-0.3

-0.6

-9.6

-4.4

Rs /kg

106.1

-0.8

-1.6

-9.5

2.4

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 14th March 522,250 5,172,950 161,646 1,206,725 279,000 13th March 520,500 5,180,975 161,046 1,208,425 281,400 Actual Change 1,750 -8,025 600 -1,700 -2,400 (%) Change 0.3 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.9
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

MCX Zinc Mar 13

Rs /kg

105.4/104.5

107/108.8

MCX Lead Mar 13

Rs /kg

120.5/119.7

122/122.8

MCX Aluminum Mar13 MCX Nickel Mar 13

Rs /kg Rs /kg

104.8/104 923/914

106.2/107 937/944
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| March 15, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator EU Economic Summit Euro group Meetings CPI y/y Core CPI y/y MPC Member Dale Speaks Core CPI m/m CPI m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index TIC Long-Term Purchases Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Country Europe Europe Europe Europe UK US US US US US US US Time (IST) Day 2 All Day 3:30pm 3:30pm 4:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 7:25pm Actual Forecast 1.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 9.8 55.3B 79.4% 0.4% 78.2 Previous 1.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 10.0 64.2B 79.1% -0.1% 77.6 Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Medium Medium Medium Medium High

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