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Demand estimation-Method 1

total population of overweight people


25 to 30 BMI
potential market
15 percent of potenial market
1st year
2st year
3nd year
4rd year
5th year
total packs sold in 5 years(millions)

Millions

Demand estimation-Method 2
total population of overweight people
25 to 30 bmi
potential market(comfortable with weight loss)
15 percent of potenial market
1st year
2st year
3nd year
4rd year
5th year
total packs sold in 5 years(millions)

Millions

Demand estimation-Method 3
total population of overweight people
25 to 30 BMI
female
women age grp 35-65 (percentage)
potential user (millions)
1ST year
2nd year
3rd year
4th year
5th year
total packs sold in 5 years

Millions

230
78.2
27.37
4.1055
0.41055
0.615825
0.8211
1.026375
1.23165

230
78.2
9.384
9.384
0.9384
1.4076
1.8768
2.346
2.8152

230
78.2
46.92
21.6
4.3
1.29
1.505
1.72
1.935
2.15

R&D
manufacturing budget(5 years)
marketing budget(5 years)
Total (mill)
calculation of net profit
$75
$125

400
6
115
521
estimation by method 1
-344.675792
-109.3173302

$150
Calculation of ROI
$75
$125
$150

8.397208
Method 1
-0.66156582
-0.209822131
0.016117482

Users who repurchase once (60%)

Users who complete the course(20%)

0.24633
0.369495
0.49266
0.615825
0.73899

repurchase(60%)

0.049266
0.073899
0.098532
0.123165
0.147798

complete the course(20%)

0.56304
0.84456
1.12608
1.4076
1.68912

repurchase(60%)

0.112608
0.168912
0.225216
0.28152
0.337824

complete the course(20%)

0.774
0.903
1.032
1.161
1.29

estimation by method 2

0.258
0.301
0.344
0.387
0.43

estimation by method 3
-119.516096
418.4461024

-135.896
380.0524

687.507904
Method 2

638.104
Method 3

-0.229397497
0.803159506
1.319592906

-0.260836852
0.729467179
1.224767754

overall sales

0.706146
1.059219
1.412292
1.765365
2.118438
7.06146

overall sales

1.614048
2.421072
3.228096
4.03512
4.842144
16.14048

overall sales

2.322
2.709
3.096
3.483
3.87
15.48