Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| March 19, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| March 19, 2013

Highlights
Italian Trade Balance was at a deficit of 1.62 billion Euros in January. US NAHB Housing Market Index declined to 44-mark in March. European Trade Balance was at a surplus of 9 billion Euros in January. Asian markets recovered from yesterdays fall which had slipped on the back of expectations that Euro region will fall into its debt crisis. US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index declined by 2 points to 44-mark in March as against a rise of 46-level in February. Chinas Conference Board (CB) Leading Index remained unchanged at 1.3 percent in the month of February. Foreign Direct Investment fell by 1.4 percent in February as against a previous decline of 7.3 percent in January.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5835.3 19293.2 14452.06 1552.1 15924.1 1968.2 58497.8 12220.6 93.74 1604.60 2884.10 7567.00 102.09 Prev. day -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 -2.7 0.3 0.9 0.1 -2.5 0.0

as on March 18, 2013 WoW -1.8 -1.8 0.0 -0.3 -1.0 -1.8 -0.1 -0.1 1.8 1.7 0.1 -2.6 0.1 MoM -1.1 -1.1 3.0 2.1 -3.7 -0.7 4.1 7.3 -3.0 0.1 -1.9 -3.6 0.0 YoY 11.0 5.5 9.2 10.5 -6.8 1.9 -13.6 20.6 -12.4 -3.3 -11.5 -11.3 -0.3

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.4 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, tax levied on the bank deposits in Cyprus which is plan of bailout package led to expectations of reemergence in the Euro Zone debt crisis. Further, US equities traded on a negative which also acted as a favorable factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 82.83 and closed at 82.574 on Monday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) 82.57 54.07 54.28 54.28 Prev. day 0.4 -0.1 0.15 0.16

as on March 18, 2013 WoW 0.0 0.5 -0.65 -0.63 MoM 2.5 0.3 -0.07 -0.08 YoY 3.9 -7.3 7.76 7.76

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of weak global and domestic market sentiments after bailout plan for Cyprus levied tax on bank deposits which led to reemergence of Euro Zone debt crisis. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of expectations of cut in interest rates by the central bank of the country on Tuesday. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 54.34 and closed at 54.07 against dollar on Monday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.6,613.40 crores ($1,212.41 million) as on 18th March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.53,111.60 crores ($9,847.0 million) till 18th March 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of expectations of cut in the key rates by the central bank of the country. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the currency. However, if data doesnt comes as expected it will cap sharp gains or even reversal in the Indian Rupee.

US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for March 19, 2013 Support 54.15/54.0 Resistance 54.45/54.60

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| March 19, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.9 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of worries over Cyprus bailout as the European Finance Ministers decided to levy special tax on the bank deposits of Cyprus. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX added downside pressure on the currency. Italian Trade Balance was at a deficit of 1.62 billion Euros in January as against a previous surplus of 2.11 billion Euros a month ago. European Trade Balance was at a surplus of 9 billion Euros in January from earlier surplus of 10.3 billion in December. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.288 and closed at 1.2954 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate as the Euro zone finance minister decided to levy special tax on banks deposits in Cyprus to reduce the cost of bailout. Further, expectation of negative Industrial production data from Italy and decline in German ZEW economic sentiments may add downside pressure in the currency. However, optimistic global market sentiments, weakness in DX along with expectation of positive ZEW economic sentiments for Euro Zone may cushion sharp depreciation in the Euro.

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2954 70.12 70.3 70.3 Prev. day -0.9 0.6 -0.42 -0.66

as on March 18, 2013 WoW -0.7 0.9 -0.98 -0.96 MoM -3.0 3.4 -2.98 -3.00 YoY -1.7 6.78 6.78

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change) Technical Outlook

Trend Euro/INR Mar13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.10/69.90 70.55/70.75 $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) valid for March 19, 2013 Support Resistance Last 1.5104 81.638 82.09 Prev. day -0.06 -0.016 -0.08

as on March 18, 2013

WoW 1.3 0.66 0.94

MoM -2.3 -2.66 -2.31

YoY -4.7 2.77 3.61

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.06 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, worries among the investors over the UKs economic conditions added downside pressure. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5071 and closed at 1.5104 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of expectation of rise in Inflation data from UK. However, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX will cushion sharp decline in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 19, 2013 Support 81.90/81.70 Resistance 82.30/82.50

GBP / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

82.08

-0.08

0.97

-2.31

3.65

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| March 19, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen traded on a flat note and appreciated marginally in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 95.03 and closed at 95.2 against dollar on Monday. Outlook Technical Chart JPY For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 19, 2013 Support 56.85/56.45 Resistance 57.50/58.10 Last 95.2 0.5671 57.17 57.19 Prev day 0.0 0.00 1.26 1.30 as on March 18, 2013 WoW -1.1 0.71 0.46 0.47 MoM 1.3 -2.02 -1.17 -1.12 YoY 14.1 -5.62 -4.97 -4.96

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on March 19, 2013

Indicator CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y German ZEW Economic Sentiment ZEW Economic Sentiment BOE Inflation Letter Building Permits Housing Starts Country UK UK UK Europe Europe UK US US Time (IST) 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:30pm 3:30pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm Actual Forecast 2.8% 1.6% 3.3% 47.9 43.7 0.93M 0.92M Previous 2.7% 1.3% 3.3% 48.2 42.4 0.90M 0.89M Impact High High Medium High Medium High High Medium

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