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We believe that European policymakers were reluctant to restructure Cyprus' sovereign debt, as the Greek sovereign default in 2012 was also meant to be a one-time event. A Greek-style sovereign restructuring would, in our view, not adequately address Cyprus' needs: we estimate that about one-third of the 6.3 billion (35% of GDP) of long-term securities that could be restructured is held by domestic banks, with another quarter of Cyprus' debt stock held domestically by asset managers, including pension funds. A default by Cyprus would therefore increase its cost of recapitalizing the financial sector, while most likely triggering protests from the public and private pension funds (many connected to trade unions) that have invested heavily in Cyprus' sovereign debt. As Cyprus' banks' balance sheets are predominantly deposit-financed, bailing in the bank bondholders would not have been sufficient to reduce the additional government debt to the 10 billion we understand the Troika believes will be the upper limit to ensure a sustainable public debt ratio (about 120% of GDP by our estimate, but likely to rise as we anticipate depressed economic conditions over the medium term).
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was agreed, there may have been a misapprehension of certain political and social realities--a misapprehension that could rekindle questions about the effectiveness of current and future European crisis management. After the Cyprus precedent, similarly situated national governments could encounter opposition from their own parliaments. We also believe that the experience in Cyprus illustrates the risk of complacency in the wake of reduced bond market pressures. We have highlighted this as one of the key challenges to overcome in 2013 (see "The Eurozone Debt Crisis: 2013 Could Be A Watershed Year", published on RatingsDirect Global Credit Portal on Jan. 9, 2013).
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bank" to be spun off. But the key component of the alternative plan is understood to be a "Solidarity Fund", which would issue bonds secured by state assets to raise the 5.8 billion required. The Fund is reported to include the securitization of Church assets, national pension fund contributions, with a possible reinstatement of the deposit levy above the insured threshold. While the contours of the plan remain sketchy, in our view, receiving the necessary approvals could still prove challenging. The Cypriot parliament did delay a vote on the new plan by a day to Friday (March 22). In case of adoption, the package will still need to gain Troika approval, which we do not consider as assured. Most importantly, assessing the real value of the assets backing up the Solidarity Fund could be difficult. The bonds raised by the funds could also be seen as increasing the debt burden of Cyprus beyond what the Troika considers sustainable levels. Furthermore, approval by the Troika could take some time, possibly beyond the current ELA deadline set by the ECB. As in other situations, returning to the negotiating table can carry benefits--even if, at the moment, they appear uncertain. In Iceland, for example, an international agreement was reopened and renegotiated following the financial crisis brought on by its banking sector. The Icelandic government faced a lengthy dispute with The Netherlands and the U.K. over liability for the insured depositors in Icesave, a subsidiary of a failed Icelandic bank. In late 2009, the Icelandic parliament approved an agreement, but the president did not sign it into law. Eventually, the agreement was defeated by referendum. At the time, there were significant anxieties about the financial consequences of the breakdown. In retrospect, it appears that Iceland achieved a better outcome than had the referendum passed.
6. Does Standard & Poor's believe that Cyprus will leave the eurozone?
We have previously said that the likelihood of a sovereign leaving the eurozone is remote. In the case of Greece, the incentives to exit appear to have diminished (see "Top 10 Investor Questions On The Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis," published Feb. 19, 2013).
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However, the events of the past week are unprecedented. If an agreement is not reached, Cyprus' authorities may be forced to keep banks closed for longer or introduce direct capital and withdrawal controls to stem bank runs and capital flight. Not even Greece had to resort to such measures. In this scenario, the population's support could disappear for a currency that cannot be used to meet its financial needs. We believe that the new president's authority and popularity has diminished, especially in light of his election promise not to bail-in depositors. This may lead to Cypriots looking to other leaders who may offer seemingly more attractive and populist solutions, including exiting the eurozone. According to media reports, the leader of Cyprus' Orthodox Church, Archbishop Chrysostomos, has encouraged Cypriots to abandon the euro. Opposition politicians, including the former Presidential candidate Giorgios Lilikas (who attracted a quarter of the vote in last month's first round election), are reported to have expressed similar views. Indeed, an opinion poll published on March 21 seems to suggest that two-thirds of the population would currently favor their country's exit from the eurozone. While a eurozone exit may look more likely today than a week ago, we do not believe it would help solve the country's financial problems. When the possibility of Greece leaving the eurozone was discussed last year, we viewed this outcome as unlikely and expressed the view that an exit would have had detrimental consequences, exacerbating Greece's social, economic, and financial challenges (see "Credit FAQ: Sovereign Rating Implications Of A Possible Greek Withdrawal From The Eurozone," June 4, 2012). In our opinion, the same holds for Cyprus. Cyprus suffers from a sizable twin deficit in its fiscal and current accounts, which would require external financing. This deficit could be exacerbated by the capital flight that generally follows after the introduction of a new--typically rapidly depreciating--currency. Financing for Cyprus appears uncertain as financial markets and official funding are effectively closed. And without funding for imports, Cypriot daily life could face severe disruptions given Cyprus' dependence on imported food, fuels, and pharmaceutical products. In recent years, the trade deficit has been more than 20% of GDP. This deficit has customarily been partially offset by Cyprus' high financial and business services surpluses (which has averaged about 12% of GDP). Nevertheless--on the assumption that CIS-based deposits withdraw from the system--Cyprus' services surplus could be materially affected. This loss (with knock-on effects on financial sector employment) would imply that current account financing needs would rise still higher. In our view, these factors could lead to social unrest. And while Cyprus' export sector is much larger than Greece's (about 40% versus 25% of GDP), Cyprus is more dependent on tourism than Greece. Like Greece, Cypriot tourism is import-intensive and might suffer a reputational setback from the economic crisis and dissolving social cohesion. While Cyprus' banking sector may be having difficulty staying solvent and liquid, its financial situation would likely deteriorate further following a currency exit and a depreciation. The large euro-denominated deposit liabilities would be even more difficult to sustain if the (new) local currency were to devalue. A collapse of the financial sector would be hard to avoid in our view, potentially eradicating a large part of the savings of Cypriot citizens.
7. How does Standard & Poor's assess the contagion risk from Cyprus?
Several commentators have raised concerns that the bail-in of insured depositors could lead to renewed capital flight, and outflow of deposits, from other financially-weaker eurozone sovereigns. Deposits in these countries have stabilized following the ECB's announcement on outright monetary transactions in September 2012. But confidence may
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disappear and Cyprus could be a trigger to a new round of reverse flows, further intensifying the diverging monetary and financial trends across the eurozone and jeopardizing stable funding for weaker sovereigns and their banking systems. To the extent that the Program's financial levy on depositors may foreshadow other similar "wealth taxes", such potential deposit flows could further weaken eurozone sovereigns. While this contagion risk exists, we would also stress that we assess Cyprus' banking system as structurally very different from others in the eurozone, both in terms of relative size and funding structure. Cyprus' banks have not only more-severe asset quality problems, but also no large amounts of equity or junior and senior creditors that serve to protect depositors. And no other eurozone sovereign has a banking system where the financial sacrifices resulting from a deposit bail-in would be borne largely by nonresident depositors. We are therefore of the opinion that the idea of bailing-in depositors had more traction in Cyprus than elsewhere. Politicians' claims that "Cyprus is a special and unique case" ring true in that sense. The outright parliamentary rejection of the depositor bail-in means in our opinion that it's highly unlikely that this policy recommendation will reappear in other countries. We find it hard to imagine any other parliament would approve such a measure after the Cyprus experience. In our view, the insured deposits in other peripheral countries may therefore be not any less safe than they were before the currently aborted attempt to tax them in Cyprus.
Related Research:
Cyprus Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'CCC' On Rising Risks To Financial And Economic Stability; Outlook Negative, March 21, 2013 Top 10 Investor Questions On The Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis, Feb. 19, 2013 The Eurozone Debt Crisis: 2013 Could Be A Watershed Year, Jan. 9, 2013 Cyprus Rating Lowered To 'CCC+' On Intensifying Liquidity Risks And Burgeoning Debt Burden; Outlook Negative, Dec. 20, 2012
Additional Contact: SovereignEurope; SovereignEurope@standardandpoors.com
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