Expert Systems with Applications 38 (2011) 1006010065

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Expert Systems with Applications

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/eswa

A fuzzy clustering iterative model using chaotic differential evolution algorithm for evaluating ood disaster
Yaoyao He a,b,c,, Jianzhong Zhou c, Pangao Kou c, Ning Lu c,d, Qiang Zou c
a

School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-Making, Ministry of Education, Hefei, China c School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China d School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China
b

a r t i c l e

i n f o

a b s t r a c t
Flood disaster is a kind of frequent natural hazards. The objective of ood disaster evaluation is to establish hazard assessment model for managing ood and preventing disaster. Base on the chaotic optimization theory, this paper proposes a chaotic differential evolution algorithm to solve a fuzzy clustering iterative model for evaluating ood disaster. By using improved logistic chaotic map and penalty function, the objective function can be solved more perfectly. Two practical ood disaster cases have been taken into account so as to test the effect of novel hybrid method. Simulation results and comparisons show that the chaotic differential evolution algorithm is competitive and stable in performance with simple differential evolution and other optimization approaches presented in literatures. 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Flood disaster evaluation Evolutionary computation Differential evolution algorithm Fuzzy clustering Chaotic map

1. Introduction Flood as a natural disasters is one of the most common and serious. The frequency of occurrence of ood disasters is higher than other disasters, including droughts, earth-quakes, forest res, snow, typhoons, and marine disasters. It is estimated that economic losses caused by ood accounts for 40% of all total losses attributed to all disasters (Xia, Kang, & Wu, 2008). Flood disaster evaluation is to establish hazard assessment modal as a decision basis for managing ood and preventing disaster according to the known disaster indexes. Hence, the problem of ood disaster evaluation has become a important branch of ood management (Zhang, Zhou, Xu, & Watanabe, 2002). In recent years, several conventional mathematical approaches, such as fuzzy clustering algorithm (FCA) (Chen & Wang, 2004; Yu & Chen, 2005), entropy weights method (EWM) (Sun, Duan, Li, & Chen, 2007), life satisfaction approach (LSA) (Luechinger & Raschky, 2009) and support vector machine (Huang, Zhou, Song, Lu & Zhang, 2010) have been given much attention by many researchers. Fuzzy sets method is a kind of offshoot in the fuzzy mathematics, which has become an active research area in risk analysis and management for valuing ood disasters (Feng & Luo, 2009; Jiang, Deng, Chen, Wu, & Li, 2009) due to its successful application on complex engineering optimization model. As compared with classical methods, fuzzy sets method possesses better results and
Corresponding author. Address: School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China. Tel.: +86 551 2904910. E-mail address: hy-342501y@163.com (Y. He).
0957-4174/$ - see front matter 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.02.003

mathematical treatablilty in different elds. Chen (1998), Chen (2002) has extended fuzzy sets theory to many engineering elds and improved Bezdek fuzzy clustering iterative model. The new model introduces index weight vector so as to minimize the square sum of the general Euclidean weighted distance by parameter iterative method (Chen & Wang, 2004; Yu & Chen, 2005). This may lead to the objective function cant implement the global optimization. So, we try to apply intelligent optimization technique in fuzzy clustering iterative model. Differential evolution (DE) algorithm is a kind of populationbased stochastic evolutionary optimization techniques and motivated by the simulation of social behavior. It was rst proposed by Storn and Price (1997) as a heuristic method for minimizing non-linear and non-differentiable continuous space functions. As other evolutionary algorithms, the rst generation is initialized randomly and further generations evolve through the application of certain evolutionary operator until a stopping criterion is satised (Kaelo & Ali, 2006; Salman, Engelbrecht, & Omran, 2007; Storn & Price, 2006). DE is very effective for solving optimization problems those particularly involve constraints condition (Lampinen & Zelinka, 1999; Zhang, Luo, & Wang, 2008).and has been applied to various different types of optimization problems in engineering (Chiou, 2007; Maulik & Saha, 2009). Chaotic optimization algorithm (COA) (Tavazoei & Haeri, 2007), which utilizes the nature of chaos sequence including the quasi-stochastic property and ergodicity, is a popular optimization method. Owing to the difference of computing results between two successive iterations is always big using simple COA, it is usually combined with other intelligent optimization technique, such as

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particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm (He, Zhou, Li, Yang, & Li, 2008; He, Zhou, Xiang, Chen, & Qin, 2009), simulated annealing algorithm (Ji & Tang, 2004), ant swarm optimization algorithm (Cai, Ma, Li, & Yang, 2007) and DE algorithm (Coelho & Mariani, 2006; Yuan, Cao, Yang, Yuan, 2008; He, Zhou, Lu, Qin, & Lu, 2010). In this paper, we propose a chaotic differential evolution (CDE) algorithm to deal with a fuzzy clustering iterative model for evaluating ood disaster that is proposed by Yu and Chen (2005), and adopt penalty function method to deal with constraints. The novel algorithm can optimize the square sum of the general Euclidean weighted distance of fuzzy clustering model with variable index weight vector. Two practical ood disaster cases have been taken into account so as to prove the superiority of novel hybrid method in comparison with the existing methods. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 is the fuzzy clustering iterative model and Section 3 introduces the simple differential evolution (DE) algorithm. Then, the improved logistic map and CDE algorithm are presented in Section 4. The practical ood disaster cases are shown in Sections 5 and 6 is the conclusion and future research. 2. Fuzzy clustering iterative model In this section, the fuzzy clustering iterative model is given to nd out a mapping between the observed ood samples and their several relevant factors, and apply this to recognise other ood according to its factors. The process of model establishment can be depicted as following content. Suppose that there are n samples, and each sample has recorded the eigenvalues of m indexes, such that an index matrix of the recorded eigenvalues is given as follows:

in which uhj denotes the relative membership degree of sample j belonging to class h standard. Assume the eigenvalues of m indexes for class h are denoted as the clustering center of class h standard, then an index matrix can be obtained as the fuzzy class center matrix.

s11 6s 6 21 S6 4... sm 1

s12 s22 ... sm 2

. . . s1c

3 6

. . . s2c 7 7 7 sih ... ... 5 . . . smc

where sih is the class of index i of class h standard, and 0 6 sih 6 1. For depicting different indexes effects, we induct weights into cluster. The normalized index weight vector is dened as follows:

w w1 ; w2 ; . . . ; wm T ;

m X i 1

wi 1:

In order to gain the optimal fuzzy clustering matrix U and optimal center matrix S, the objective function can be established to minimize the square sum of the general Euclidean weighted distance from the minimum class 1 to the maximum class c.

( min F wi ; uhj ; sih

) n X c X 2 uhj kwi rij sih k :

j1 h1

According to method of Lagrange function, the fuzzy class center matrix sih and fuzzy clustering matrix uhj are described as follows (Chen, 1998):

sih

n X j1

,
2 u2 hj wi r ij

n X j1

2 u2 hj wi ;

x11

x12 x22 ... xm 2

. . . x1 n

3 1

6x 6 21 X6 4... xm 1

. . . x2 n 7 7 7 xij ... ... 5 . . . xmn

# 2 1 c Pm X i1 wi r ij sih uhj : Pm 2 k1 i1 wi r ij sik

"

10

where xij is the eigenvalues of index i at sample j, i = 1, 2, . . . , m; j = 1, 2, . . . , n. According to the fuzzy optimum theory, matrix X should be transformed into the matrix of index normalized eigenvalues by the following equation:

Aim at the target of Eq. (8), we adopt variable index weight vector w to calculate the optimal fuzzy clustering matrix uhj and the optimal clustering center matrix sjh Its steps can be illustrated as follows: (1) Set the precision of e1 and e2 for calculating uhj and sjh. (2) To search optimal index weight vector w using DE or CDE algorithm. (3) Let iterative times l = 0 and suppose the original fuzzy clustering matrix ulhj , which satises the constraint Eq. (5). (4) Calculate corresponding original clustering center slih matrix by importing ulhj , into Eq. (9). 1 (5) To seek an approximate clustering matrix ulhj by importing slih into Eq. (10). 1 (6) To seek an approximate clustering center matrix slih by 1 importing ulhj into Eq. (9). 1 1 (7) Compare corresponding value ulhj ; ulhj and slih ; slih , if the maximum absolute errors satisfy following conditions:

r ij xi max xij =xi max xi min ;

where xi,max xi,min denote the maximum, minimum eigenvalues of index i, respectively. Then, matrix (1) can be transformed into a index normalized eigenvalues matrix by Eq. (2)

r 11

r 12 r 22 ... r m2

. . . r 1n

3 3

6r 6 21 R6 4... r m1

. . . r 2n 7 7 7 rij ... ... 5 . . . r mn

where rij are the normalized values of index i at sample j, within region [0, 1]. Assume the m indexes of n samples can be clustered with c classes and the fuzzy clustering matrix is dened as follows:

   1  max ulhj ulhj  > e1

and

11

u11

u12 u22 ... uc2

. . . u1n

3 4

6u 6 21 U6 4... uc1

. . . u2n 7 7 7 uhj ... ... 5 . . . ucn

 1  max slih slih  > e2 ;

12

then update the iteration counter by l = l + 1 and loop to step (4) until

subject to constraints

   1   1  max ulhj ulhj  6 e1 ; maxslih slih  6 e2 :

13

0 6 uhj 6 1;

c X h 1

uhj 1

l1 1 The approximate matrix uhj and slih may be considered as the optimal results when Equation (13) has satised or reaches the maximum iterative times.

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3. Simple differential evolution algorithm DE algorithm has been recently proven to be an efcient method for the global optimization (Kaelo & Ali, 2006; Storn & Price, 2006). The theoretical framework of DE is very simple to solve nonlinear continuous optimization problems, and it is also easy to be coded in the computer. The steps of simple DE algorithm are summarized as follows: 3.1. Algorithm DE Step 1: Initialization: Let a population size N, crossover probability Pc, evolution generation T, scaling factor F and initial evolution generation t = 0 in the d-dimensional space. Initialize the population with a random vector Y(0) = {y1(0), . . . , yN(0)}, in which the ith individual yi(0) = (yi,1(0), . . . , yi,d(0)) (i = 1, . . . , N). The initial objective value is f(xb(0)) in the optimal position xb(0) = (xb1(0), . . . , xbd(0)). Step 2: Crossover: Choose three distinct random integer r1, r2, r3 from the set {1, 2, . . . , N} and random integer jra = 1, . . . , d. The new point of ith individual jth component (i = 1, . . . , N; j = 1, . . . , d) is found by mutating a target vector using the following crossover rule:

In DE, the tness of an offspring competes one-to-one with its parent that gives rise to a faster convergence rate. However, this faster convergence may also result in a higher probability of obtaining a local optimum because the diversity of the population descends faster during the solution progress. This drawback can be overcome by means of a larger population size. But this may increase much computation time and debase efciency of attaining the optimal location. 4. A CDE algorithm for ood disaster evaluation 4.1. Improved logistic chaotic map The simple logistic map is a well-known chaotic map (He et al., 2008, 2009; Tavazoei & Haeri, 2007). It is often cited as an example of how complex behavior can arise from a simple deterministic dynamic system without any stochastic disturbance. This map is written as:

yt 1 4yt 1 yt ;

yt 2 0; 1:

16

Setting y(t) = (z(t) + 1)/2, the rule (16) is changed to the following improved logistic chaotic map (He et al., 2009).

zt 1 1 2zt 2 ;

zt 2 1; 1:

17

( y0i;j t

yi;r1 t F yi;r2 t yi;r3 t; if r ij < pc or j jra yi;j t else 14

For comparison, The distribution gure of y(t) and z(t) with 100 times iteration can be depicted in Fig. 1. 4.2. Chaotic differential evolution algorithm The CDE algorithm available adopts the logistic chaotic sequences to obtain the parameters Pc and F (Yuan et al., 2008). In this paper, we have devised an algorithm that explores the global optimal value around yi(t) and the current best yb(t), which tunes the position of the optimal solution using the improved logistic map. Two new points, ri(t) = (ri,1(t), . . . , ri,d(t)) and ci(t) = (ci,1(t), . . . , ci,d(t)) are calculated with some probability, using the following equations:

where rij are random numbers from (0, 1) with the uniform distribution. Step 3: Selection: Select each trial vector yi,j(t) for the t + 1 iteration by using the acceptance criterion:

( y i; j t 1

y0i;j t;

if

f y0i;j t < f yi;j t

yi;j t else:

15

Step 4: Evaluation: Evaluate objective function value f(yi(t)) of each individual yi(t), in which the optimal individual of optimal value fmin is yb(t) = (yb,1, . . . , yb,d). Step 5: If the stopping criteria is satised, then stop; otherwise, let t = t + 1 and go to step 2.

ri;j t aj t yi;j t 1 aj t yb;j t

and

18

ci;j t aj t yb;j t 1 aj t yi;j t

19

Fig. 1. Comparison of logistic map and improved logistic map in 100 iterations.

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where aj(t) are distributed in the region (1, 1) for each j by the following improved logistic map rules.

aj t 1 1 2aj t2 j 1; . . . ; d

20

Then, the novel CDE algorithm is proposed by modifying the step 4 of simple DE. The other steps of CDE is the same as the DE algorithm. The step 4 of CDE is depicted as: Step 4: Evaluation: Evaluate objective function value f(yi(t)) of each individual yi(t), and the optimal individual of optimal value fmin is yb(t) = (yb,1, . . . , yb,d). Find the better position of the optimal individual using the Equation (18)(20). If f(yb(t)) > f(ri(t)),then f(yb(t)) = f(ri(t)), and yb(t) = ri(t); If f(yb(t)) > f(ci(t)),then f(yb(t)) = f(ci(t)), and yb(t) = ci(t).

For a better comparison, we chose the best computation result in the foregoing methods. In this case study, the minimum objective function value evaluated by CDE algorithm is 1.2775e2, then the obtained optimal index weight vector w = (0.0908, 0.6267, 0.1141, 0.0801, 0.0883). The optimal clustering center matrix S and the optimal fuzzy clustering matrix U are shown in the following equations.

0:8586 6 0:9579 6 6 S 6 0:8904 6 4 0:8344 0:8866

0:0345 0:0375 0:1819 0:1551 0:2017

3 0:3165 0:7412 7 7 7 0:6498 7 7 0:7131 5 0:7881

21

3T 0:0037 0:9803 0:9539 0:9870 0:0141 0:6748 0:9527 0:1216 0:0601 0:0046 6 7 U 4 0:9900 0:0014 0:0033 8:0475e 4 0:0015 0:0099 0:0025 0:0062 0:0142 0:9873 5 : 0:0063 0:0184 0:0428 0:0122 0:9844 0:3153 0:0448 0:8722 0:9257 0:0082

22

5. Implementation and results 5.1. Experimental setup For the purpose of comparison, we choose two sample ood disasters to assert the excellent performance of CDE algorithm using improved logistic map. The simple DE algorithm and CDE algorithm will also repeat 10 time for each case, and the min, max, mean, std denote the minimum, maximum, mean value and standard deviation of objective function, respectively. To the fuzzy clustering iterative model, the parameter of absolute errors e1, e2 are set to 1e4, and the maximum iterative number l is 10 times for the slih ; ulhj . In CDE algorithm, the maximum evolutionary generation T is set to 100, the population size N is 50, the crossover probability Pc is 0.9, the scaling factor F is 0.7. The proposed algorithms adopt penalty function method to deal with constraints. Let P 2 function f y F wi ; uhj ; sih M m i1 wi 1 , where M is the penalty impact. In the numerical experiments, M is set to 105 in the rst case, and 106 in the second case. 5.2. The rst case Consider the ve evaluating indexes, including ood peak level, the days of ood level over 9 m, the ood discharge in DaTong station, the ood discharge from May to September, the synthetic index of discharge and time. The evaluating index eigenvalues of 10 ood disaster samples are shown in Table 1 (Sun et al., 2007). Suppose the disaster class of ood disaster area may be classied as three sorts (i. e c = 3), then Table 2 summarizes the tness value (the square sum of the general Euclidean weighted distance) obtained by simple DE and CDE algorithm in 10 independent runs. It is shown that the precision of CDE performs is better than the DE though both of them can also attain approximate effect.

According to the clustering results and the values of ood factors in every year, we can conclude that it is catastrophic ood disaster in 1954 and 1998; it is large ood disaster in 1983, 1995 and 1996; it is common ood disaster in 1969, 1973, 1980, 1991 and 1992. This is the identical sorting result in comparison with the EWM method (Sun et al., 2007). But the square sum of the general Euclidean weighted distance obtained by the EWM method is 0.8430 with the optimal index weight vector w = (0.144, 0.278, 0.186, 0.170, 0.222). Obviously, this is not a global optimal solution using EWM method. 5.3. The second case In order to prove the superiority of CDE, the second case was considered. The chosen practical ood disaster had happened in 1996, which inuenced 10 areas of China. In view of four different evaluation indexes, including the proportion of suffering ood disaster, the population of suffering ood disaster, the destroyed buildings, and the direct economy loss, index eigenvalues are obtained by following Table 3 (Yu & Chen, 2005). Suppose the disaster class of ood disaster area may be classied as 4 sorts (i. e c = 4), then Table 4 summarizes the tness value obtained by simple DE and CDE algorithm in 10 independent runs. It is shown that the precision of CDE performs better than the DE though both of them can also attain approximate effect. In this case study, the minimum objective function value evaluated by CDE algorithm is 6.6251e3, then we can obtained the index weight vector w = (0.0858, 0.0139, 0.8759, 0.0244), the optimal clustering center matrix S and the optimal fuzzy clustering matrix U.

0:2135 6 0:7914 6 S 4 0:0123 0:0109

3 0:1920 0:2887 0:8874 0:0369 06566 0:9683 7 7: 0:8358 0:8776 0:7598 5 0:5830 0:8959 0:9219

23

0:0026

0:8473

0:9957

0:0018

0:0015

0:9571

0:0024

0:9716 0:0084

0:9771 0:0068

1:1727e 4

3 24

6 0:9874 0:0355 0:0012 0:0043 0:0033 0:0114 0:9877 6 U 6 4 6:0602e 4 0:0031 1:4544e 4 0:9911 0:9928 0:0011 6:6213e 4 0:0094 0:1141 0:0029 0:0028 0:0023 0:0304 0:0092

1:8640e 4 7 7 7: 0:0011 8:4267e 4 8:3624e 6 5 0:0153 0:9997

0:0189

10064 Table 1 The historical ood samples in NanJing station. Areas 1954 1969 1973 1980 1983 1991 1992 1995 1996 1998 Flood peak level (m) 10.22 9.20 9.19 9.20 9.99 9.70 9.06 9.66 9.89 10.14

Y. He et al. / Expert Systems with Applications 38 (2011) 1006010065

The days of ood level over 9 m /day 87 8 7 10 27 17 13 23 34 81

The ood discharge in DaTong station (m3 s1) 92,600 67,700 70,000 64,000 72,600 63,800 67,700 75,500 75,100 82,100

The ood discharge from May to September (m3 s1) 8891 5447 6623 6340 6641 5576 5295 6162 6206 7773

The synthetic index of discharge and time 7800 1710 3280 2730 3560 1930 1575 2390 2702 5283

Table 2 Comparison of CDE with DE to the rst case. Alg. DE CDE Min 1.2785e2 1.2775e2 Max 1.2929e2 1.2879e2 Mean 1.2851e2 1.2801e2 Std. 5.0756e5 3.0275e5

FCA is 1.0787 with the index weight vector w = (0.2114, 0.2500, 0.1640, 0.3747). Obviously, the evaluating result using CDE is more reliable than FCA. 6. Conclusions and future research This paper introduces a CDE algorithm using improved logistic map for treating with a fuzzy clustering iterative model in allusion to the problem of ood disaster evaluation. Form the comparison of the results for two cases study through CDE and DE, as well as other conventional methods, it has been shown that the sorting results of ood disaster are more reasonable and reliable by using CDE algorithm, obviously. The future research is to combine other intelligent evolution techniques with chaotic map for evaluating ood disaster. Acknowledgements This paper is supported by National 973 Program of China (No. 2007CB714107), Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71071045), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (No. 20100480679) and the Doctors Special Research Foundation of Hefei University of Technology (No. 2010HGBZ0599). References

Table 3 Index eigenvalues of the ood disaster in 1996. Areas Proportion of suffering ood disaster/104 m2 0.1543 1.3740 0.2601 2 3520 1.6673 0.5458 1.0792 0.3410 0.2140 4.6026 Population of suffering ood disaster/104 6.0000 5.9700 4.3500 9.4000 2.9600 2.6200 4.5400 5.6000 20.0000 24.7270 Destroyed buildings/ 104 m2 20.6900 6.2350 2.8430 54.5000 58.7280 5.1050 21.7130 1.5560 1.8900 13.5920 Direct economy loss/ 107 Rmb 3.4800 1.6080 0.1770 7.9100 4.9460 1 8260 7.8800 0.3950 1.4300 6.3270

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Table 4 Comparison of CDE with DE to the second case. Alg. DE CDE Min 6.6253e3 6.6251e3 Max 1.0577e2 7.7859e3 Mean 7.7452e3 6.7975e3 Std. 1.6168e3 3.6853e4

Table 5 Comparison of CDE with FCA to the second case. Alg. CDE FCA 1 Class of ood disaster Areas 2, 3, 6, 8, 9 Areas 2, 3, 6, 8 2 Class of ood disaster Areas 1, 7 Areas 1, 9 3 Class of ood disaster Areas 4, 5 Areas 4, 5, 7 4 Class of ood disaster Area 10 Area 10

According to the clustering results and the values of ood factors in every year, we can conclude that the areas 2, 3, 6, 8, 9 is 1 class of ood disaster, the areas 1, 6 is 2 class of ood disaster, the areas 4, 5 is 3 class of ood disaster, and the area 10 is 4 class of ood disaster. Table 5 lists the sorting result of CDE and FCA (Yu & Chen, 2005). From Table 5, we can nd that the uniform sorting result except areas 7 and 9. Nevertheless, from the comparison of the square sum of the general Euclidean weighted distance, the result by using

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