Sir, I am sending in attachment rough( for sorry) translate of my story “Strategija and

tactics of Army of the USA in war in Afghanistan and its influence on Central Asia”.
This story has issued on http://www.soldatru.ru/read.php?id=138

I would be glad if this story will be issued by you in co-author with some of you
Regards Oleg
My cell in Bosnia is +387 65 413651

Oleg Valetsky
Strategija and tactics of Army of the USA in war in Afghanistan and its influence on
Central Asia
Modern war in Afghanistan is the important event for all world not only because
Afghanistan became a point of the appendix of efforts of all block of NATO but also
because it directly infringes on interests of region closely connected with Russia -
Central Asia (and consequently, and interests of Russia). To understand, how this war
can affect position in the world, it is necessary to estimate soberly first of all
opportunities which the parties participating in it have. Certainly, main and defining
force in this war is the American army, doctrines and which opportunities are analysed
by me in the book prepared for printing " the New weapon and new strategy ". During
wars in Yugoslavia and Iraq the American military command has tested the new
doctrine of conducting operations on all territory of the enemy, and first of all on the
centers supervising its manufacture, the population, transport. The given concept has
been developed by John Vordenom (John Warden) and taken on arms by the Supreme
command of the American army. Also by development of the given doctrine John
Boyd's theories (John Boyd) about actions on an advancing of the opponent in the
field of acceptance and carrying out by it during a life of decisions that is
simultaneously interfaced to actions on destruction of a circuit of command of the
opponent and on the general scheduled demoralization of the enemy were used.
Creation of new systems of the operated weapon has increased opportunities of
NATO. It has allowed groups in some person or even to singles to amaze any
purposes on all rear of the enemy. Not casually in military-political circles of the USA
not time were put forward offers on reduction of a land forces and formation of a
small contingent, sufficient for perebroski by air in any point of the world. As a matter
of fact, such contingent would be motorizirovannoj the infantry equipped
legkobronirovannoj by technics. Its main problem would consist in maintenance of
effective application of systems of the operated weapon in cooperation with local
allies. Development of the borrowed territories there will be messages the aeromobile
armies equipped legkobronirovannoj by technics and leaning fire power of
áÓÔ¿½½ÑÓ¿®ß¬«-rocket and aviation systems of the weapon. Naturally, similar
offers caused also negative responses in the environment of the American Supreme
command, however the success of operation in Yugoslavia has served as convincing
argument for vysheupomjanutoj to reorganization of armed forces of the USA and
their allies. Acknowledgement of it became reduction of parts of a land forces of the
countries - members of the NATO, at all not connected with absence of money for the
maintenance of army. New samples of the cassette and operated weapon applied as
aircraft so artillery and rocket complexes, have absolutely changed a course of
military actions. As to army of the USA, it also undergoes the serious changes caused
by its reduction, and also refusal from heavy bronetehniki (including already
developed SAU Crusader), perebroska which demands too many forces and means.
Already during war in Iraq command of the American army has created brigades
under the name "striker" (shock), equipped wheel bronetehnikoj - armored troop-
carrier LAV-25, and the machines of fighting and rear support created on its base.
Actually they became a ground equivalent of sea infantry, air-landing and air-assault
parts of the American army.

Alongside with the last shock brigades were ready to fast perebroske in any point of
the world. Thus it is important, that ognevaja support of "forwarding" forces was
based on application of the operated and cassette weapon. The American military
command has been so assured of the superiority that has considered possible to put
this theory into practice. In particular, it concerns the theory " wars in three quarters ",
the sea infantry developed by was ordering case general Charles Krulakom.
According to it at that time while in one quarter sea infantrymen conduct operations,
in the second they can conduct "zachistku" territories, and in the third to distribute the
humanitarian help. Similar strategy has been issued in June, 2001 in strategic doctrine
FM1 " The Army ", and also in the charter of operations FM-5 "Operations".
Practically given strategy has been focused on creation of the small armed forces
equipped by modern systems of the operated weapon, and also means of investigation
and radio-electronic struggle. These forces could conduct independently without long
preparation operations in any point of a planet by means of local allies. Thus the
machinery of state would not spend traditional measures on translation of ability to
live of the countries into the martial law. However already in Iraq it was found out,
that at war against "ideological" Islamic the guerrilla-mojaheds installation on
disorganization of an enemy sheaf " Supervision - orientation - the decision - action "
John Boyd simply does not work by virtue of absence for the opponent of the
command centers traditional for the civilized world. It is indicative, that there are
more than problems the American armies had in struggle against the local Islamic
guerrillas-mojaheds, managed to choose more rational method of struggle, than
frontal attacks. Afghanistan long time was a place rather quiet, and fights were
conducted here mainly by the field commanders who have supported new westernized
government Hamida Karzaja.
Using so powerful factor as Islamic fundamentalism at growing discontent of the
population with requisitions and robberies of field commanders, talibs have managed
in 2005 sharply to make active actions. Americans were not able to supervise the
processes occuring inside of the Afghani society and by that have broken own
doctrine, having broken off a sheaf " supervision - orientation - the decision - action ".
It has enabled talibs to finish free with the opponents inside of the Afghani society.
The last was the purpose and mojaheds in Iraq, and struggle against foreign
occupation became only a pretext for simplification "zachistok" opponents of Islamic
revolution who in this case could be killed any more as "devout" and as traitors of an
islam and helpers of invaders. It is quite coordinated with the Islamic laws
condemning those who breaks the law in the Islamic state, but those justifying murder
who, breaking laws of an islam service "incorrect", itself it appears the turncoat. As a
matter of fact, any revolution is directed not against enemies external, and against
enemies internal. That of mojaheds destruction of the opponents in own environment
more interested, and to them as well as possible send slogans of struggle with
inostranoj okkupatsiii, accessible and clear all. As strano, the American command has
not considered so important factor. Practically Americans had no thought over
strategy for struggle against guerrillas neither in Iraq, nor in Afghanistan
At all not having strategy, command ISAF could achieve the best results, using
checked up tactics of creation of blockhouses and paying attention to preparation of
new efficient divisions of special troops of the Afghani army and active actions on
search and destruction of forces of talibs and "al-¬á¿ñÙ". However in practice
commanders of various contingents much division preferred to sit out on bases or to
spend operations obviously senseless, to avoid losses in the numbers. Forces of the
American special troops, not having support from local and rather raznosherstnoj
armies Karzaja, were not able to fix successes of the aircraft, and finally began to get
in ambushes. In 2005 the special troops of the American Naval Forces have lost 16
fighters was onboard helicopter MH-47, brought down by talibs by means of PZRK
on border with Pakistan. PZRK were bought by representatives "al-¬á¿ñÙ" - quite
often free - in the same Yugoslavia (for example, to Sarajevo), or in the next Pakistan
at the price of 2-3 thousand dollars for a rocket and 5-10 thousand for a complex. As
the last are made not only in the USA, the Great Britain, Sweden, France, Russia, but
also in China, Iran, Egypt hardly it is possible to prevent occurrence of this weapon in
talibs in the increasing quantity. For such highland as Afghanistan, it means, that
forces ISAF will lose the mobility provided helicopters - that roads of Afghanistan
hardly can favour to similar mobility in the foreseeable future. Owing to creation of
network "al-¬á¿ñÙ" talibs had an opportunity to receive the new staff of the prepared
experts not only from Islamic, but also the European countries, and also from the
former USSR.

In 2005 the death-roll in attacks of talibs has increased up to 1500 thousand person,
and about hundred of them military men ISAF made. Growth of a death-roll in the
ranks of ISAF is officially recognized on a site http: // www.icasualties.org/oef/,
namely: in 2003 - 57 victims, in 2004 - 58 victims, in 2005 - 130 victims, and in 2006
already 172 victims. Growth of number of losses in a multinational contingent of
NATO also will lower mobility of armies ISAF as their commanders are more anxious
by reaction to growth of losses in staffs of their own armies, rather than that this or
that operation is finished neuspeshno. That talibs finally will receive long-awaited
freedom of hands and, having finished with the enemies in pushtunskoj to the
environment of Afghanistan, will continue the business in the next Pakistan. Pakistan
became the first victim of new talib revolt as a coalition of Islamic parties from the
very beginning of war in Afghanistan, has supported talibs, as well as a part of
officers of army and special services. At the same time in the real policy the fact of
possible creeping Islamic revolution in the next region of Central Asia is
underestimated. The institute of the analysis of a world policy of the USA has
published analytical research " Strategic paradigms - 2025 " in which, in particular, it
is spoken: " By 2025 probability of that Central Asia can turn to similarity of modern
Afghanistan, will be rather real. The moderate states can disappear in general from a
card of this region ". This region on the potential to the little concedes to Pakistan. Its
territory makes over 3 million square kilometers, and the population is totaled 59,4
million by person (according to " the World directory of CIA " for 2005) . From them
in Kazakhstan lives 15,2 million; in Kyrgyzstan - 5,1 million; in Tajikistan - 7,2
million; in Turkmenii - 5 million; in Uzbekistan - 26,9 million person. The total
internal product has made 232,4 billion dollars in 2005; gross national product per
capita makes approximately 3 900 dollars. Gross national product is distributed as
follows: Kazakhstan - 132,7 billion dollars; Kyrgyzstan - 9,3 billion dollars; Tajikistan
- 8,8 billion dollars; Turkmenija - 29,4 billion dollars; Uzbekistan - 52,2 billion
dollars. The bridge connecting Afghanistan with this region, nationalities of the north
of Afghanistan - Tadjiks, Uzbeks, Turkmens are. The most important role - by virtue
of the large number in Afghanistan - is played by Tadjiks. The last in days of the
USSR in the majority have taken so-called " Islamic opposition ", and Ahmad-check
Masud was just the Tadjik. The next Tajikistan for the Tadjik mojaheds always was a
ultimate goal, and the country the area 141 thousand square kilometers which half of
territory is borrowed with mountains in height of more 3 thousand meters, critical for
flights of helicopters, shows itself convenient enough and habitual theatre of
operations for groups of mojaheds from the next Afghanistan. Offensive campaign of
Islamic opposition in April, 1995 against the Russian boundary armies was a
touchstone, and civil war gone from 1992 in Tajikistan has been stopped only by the
consent Islamic the oppositions (Said Abdulla Nuri), wishing to keep status quo.
Certainly, in Tajikistan till now are the Russian armies (more precisely, 201 motor-
shooting division), but the majority its soldier just local Tadjiks, and its ability to
conducting long operations is rather doubtful. In Tajikistan dictatorship of a clan of
Rakhmonov reigns practically. As " the Independent newspaper " in number from
September, 7th 2006 g. writes Moscow: " Rakhmonov is considered in the country the
guarantor of the world and stability as it in 1997 has fastened the signature the
InterTadjik agreement on the world, put an end to the five years' civil war which has
carried away lives nearby 150 thousand the person. In other conditions among
Rakhmonov's contenders there could be two potentially perspective figures. However
leader Dempartii of Tajikistan Mahmadruzi Iskandarov is condemned for 23 years of
imprisonment. And popular in people the ex-agency head under the control over drugs
and was ordering presidential guards of Tajikistan Gafor Mirzoev has received
recently lifelong term ". Probably, such position suits Moscow, however similar
dictatorship questions in Tajikistan are not solved, and are only exhausted deep into,
that can cause revolt of one of competing clans, for example from Kulyab or from
Mountain Badahshana. As is known, in October, 2004, Tajikistan has incured the full
control over protection of border, and Russia has declared in June, 2005, that it
transfers last boundary post on border to Tadjiks, having kept only group of advisers.
Since then more and more than drugs it is transported through Tajikistan. Extent of the
Tadjik border with Afghanistan makes 1,344 km. To speak that it will be any obstacle
for the same talibs, to not have. The only thing for them an obstacle is that authority
above the Tadjik community for the present in hands of commanders of former
Northern Alliance.
Knowing, however, propensity of such commanders to various conflicts, no less than
korystoljubie, it is possible to assume them, that with growth financial opportunities
"al-¬á¿ñÙ" last them can simply buy up, at the same time having promised it all
Tajikistan, that where it is more attractive than lorries with the humanitarian help of
American agency USAID. During war of 2001 in Afghanistan forces Rabbani
generated from Tadjiks living in the country, it is equal as the Afghani Uzbeks of
general Dustuma (at support from Uzbekistan) were the main allies of Americans.
Among allies of the USA also there were also "flat" Tadjiks of Herat and pushtunskie
tribes Nangarhara, Lagmana and Kunara, incorporated under command Hadzhi
Kadyra, and as hazarejtsy and nuristantsy. However coming to power pushtuna
Karzaja has displeased among Tadjiks about whom the commanders who have grown
from war against the Soviet armies and then proSoviet authority in Kabul order.
Uzbeks in Afghanistan were more loyal to then Kabul, and nowadays general Dustum
one of the main support of new authority Karzaja. However just in the next
Uzbekistan there is the strongest and organized Islamic movement which has
supported in 2001 of talibs. Certainly, the president of Uzbekistan Karimov strongly
enough keeps authority by means of forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and
special services. Thus of disappearance of political opponents in Uzbekistan a thing
habitual enough. The oppositional newspaper "Central Asia" wrote, that in the city of
Shymkent (Southern Kazakhstan) disappearances of moslems - ethnic Uzbeks began
to occur, and lately is fixed not less than ten cases. That authorities of Kazakhstan
have given out to Uzbekistan group of refugees, also international pravozashchitnaja
the organization " Hjuman Rajts Votch " on December, 3rd, 2005 informed. Forces of
safety Karimova at threat of mass disorders quickly enough use the weapon that
events in Andizhan when tens civil inhabitants have been killed or wounded on May,
13th, 2005 have proved after the Uzbek armies have opened fire on protesters.
At the same time according to some sources Karimov for last years though has lifted
considerably a standard of living of military men, at the same time cannot provide
armed forces of the state with new technics and the weapon. For example, same base
Hanabad before arrival there Americans represented thrown, zarosshy an ice-hole
strategic air station on which parking were plundered within after disintegration of the
USSR, izedennye corrosion planes. More or less the "alive" Soviet technics, got to
Uzbekistan at section of military property of the former great country, is collected
only in several connections of constant alertness, in particular what were put forward
from Fergana and Namangan to Andizhan for suppression of the revolt which has
happened in 2004. Other - " hardly going scrap metal ". Meanwhile in Uzbekistan
there was the strongest and influential Islamic opposition in Central Asia which before
war in Afghanistan was headed with Islamic movement of Uzbekistan (the leader -
Dzhuma Namangani). As in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan there are
extensive areas of compact residing of Uzbeks, Islamic opposition of Uzbekistan now
pererosla in regional force. Its force attacks of insurgents of Islamic movement of
Uzbekistan on the Surkhan-Darya area in Uzbekistan and have shown the south of
Kyrgyzstan in the 1999-2000 which have proved weak capacity of armies " new Asia
". Then a little sot insurgents of this movement have intruded in Kyrgyzstan in July,
1999 and have grasped some villages. With assistance of the Air Forces of Uzbekistan
and Kazakhstan armed forces of Kyrgyzstan have superseded them in October, 1999.
Numerous insurgents of Islamic movement of Uzbekistan have again intruded in
Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in August, 2000. Though Uzbekistan has rendered the
Kirghiz armies military support, including from air, insurgents have receded only in
October, 2000.
Explosions in Tashkent in February, 1999 were one of early attributes of that the
government became vulnerable for terrorism. According to various messages
explosions have destroyed from 16 up to 28 person and have wounded from 100 up to
351 persons. After explosions large-scale arrests of political dissidents and other
persons as which observers do not consider as probable conspirators have been lead.
According to a sketch "Central Asia" of Andrey Grozina, published in "Newsletter-
analytical", " In the end 1999 - the beginning 2000 seemed, that the countries TSAR
have taken lessons from the past " batkentskogo crisis ". Nevertheless for the
Kirghizia which has again taken up the basic weight of impact of terrorists, mountain
war has turned back all over again night, and then and day time fights on pass Turo.
Terrorists have destroyed not only the Kirghiz elite ÓáºóÑñÙóáÔѽý¡«-search group
(six soldier insurgents killed sleeping, and hour have dumped in a precipice), but also
have brought down two helicopters. The majority of the Kirghiz military men was lost
in the first days of that the army did not have not enough means and opportunities to
borrow dominating heights earlier, than it was made by insurgents. On official data of
Bishkek, 33 military men from August, 11th till September, 22nd, 2000 were lost, but
many independent experts do not exclude, that real figures of losses it is more. And, at
last, to the end of October, 1999 (already after "vahhabity" send away from Zardaly)
A.Akaev has cited new data: in area of the Kirghiz gorge Hadzha-Achkan where the
basic groups of the Uzbek opposition are concentrated, about 800 person is collected,
and in next to the south of Kirghizia areas of Tajikistan in full alertness has
concentrated nearby 2 thousand insurgents.
Same "arithmetics" has repeated and in 2000. Applications that " the situation is under
the full control of the country leaders and our militarians naturally, constantly
sounded and the continuous communication with a place of armed conflict " is
established. " Fights go on destruction, we come " (the application from August, 15th,
2000), And the conflict, on official data, has settled itself in the end of September -
insurgents without special work send away there, whence send) ". In the beginning of
war in Afghanistan the president of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov, acting on local TV,
has assured Washington that the country is ready to give the air space for flight of the
American Air Forces. In air station under Karshi groups American kommandos
prepared, and planes of military-transport aircraft of the USA therefrom operated. On
October, 5th, 2001 to Tashkent there has on a visit arrived Minister of Defence of the
USA Donald Ramsfeld. I.Karimova and D.Ramsfeld's negotiations passed behind the
closed doors, but by the present moment Uzbekistan has already provided base for
operations of the USA to Karshi-èá¡áíáñÑ and base for German parts in Termez (in
the beginning of 2006 German armies as inform, totaled approximately 300 person),
and a corridor to Afghanistan through bridge " Friendship " in Termez. On October,
7th, 2001 the USA have put the first bombing attacks across Afghanistan (Kabul,
Kandahar, Herat, Jelalabad, Mazar-i-Sharif, SHindand and air base Bagram). At this
time on the áõúá¡«-Uzbek border talibs have concentrated more than 8 thousand
fighters, to a left bank of Amu Darya - under command Dzhumy Namangani. Armed
forces of Uzbekistan under I.Karimova's order have been resulted in a condition of
alertness number one, and on October, 8th southern group of armies of Kyrgyzstan,
deployed on the ¬¿Óú¿º«-Tadjik border, is resulted in a condition of alertness. Even in
Kazakhstan in the raised degree of battle readiness forces and the means which are
being on fighting watch in system of air defence of the country have been resulted.
Occupation of Afghanistan by forces of the USA and NATO has caused time calm,
but already from March, 28th till April, 1st, 2004 in Uzbekistan explosions and armed
attacks which as inform, have destroyed 47 person have been lead. The responsibility
for violence was incured unknown till now by Islamic Group of Jihad of Uzbekistan
(Jama'at al-Islami, separate part IMU). Director of CIA Gess has declared Malt liquor
in Senatorial Committee on affairs of armed forces on March, 17th, 2005, that group
IJG " has turned to more dangerous threat to interests of the USA and to local
authorities ". On May, 25th, 2005 the State department has defined it as " global
terrorist group ". On June, 1st, 2005 the Secutiry council of the United Nations has
added this group in the list of terrorist groups. As a matter of fact, business not in
actions of one group, and that Uzbekistan with its low standard of life represents itself
easy enough purpose for talibs and if they nowadays could win support of the most
part of a society in Afghanistan where the material well-being all the same has grown
as, however, and efficiency of political management in amazed Uzbekistan it it will
make poverty and corruption even easier. " A book review " in clause " the Tashkent
captive " in number from September, 4th, 2006 tells on the pages about " histories of
parting with illusions "." Krejg Mjurrej not very much represented, in what gets
involved, when per 2002 sent the ambassador of the United Kingdom to Uzbekistan.
Firstly it was derzok. Derzok even in relation to traditions of the fatherland. Was
indignant with archaic rules according to which the ambassador before sending on
destination should be to the queen, by all means dressed in a dress coat. In fact it went
to the country which as it thought, has renounced the feudal past and builds
democracy, storing fidelity to Americans and Englishmen - to allies on an antiterrorist
coalition. However illusions have quickly dissipated. Mjurrej has seen a picture,
worthy film-anti-Utopia.

It has got in the classical Asian despotism based on a slave labour and severe
suppression of any opposition. Americans winked at all this. The main thing for them
was to finish as soon as possible construction of an air base, therefore they constantly
extolled Karimova. The Uzbek special services widely apply tortures, and CIA these
cases are known. Besides, Americans willingly use the data received by the Uzbek
colleagues ". After events in Andizhan president Karimov has entered the conflict to
the USA, has demanded on July, 29th, 2005 closing of base of Americans in Karshi-
èá¡áíáñá and has constrained the word: Americans have left this base on November,
21st, 2005 In February, 2006 the government of Uzbekistan threatened to stop
German operations in Termez because armies of the USA were thrown by transit
through this position. Moscow " the Independent newspaper " on September, 8th,
2006 wrote, that in Uzbekistan close the foreign nongovernmental organizations. "
Authorities of Uzbekistan rigidly spend a line on replacement from the country of the
foreign nongovernmental organizations. At the same time it is erroneous to consider,
that Karimov became after that the proRussian politician. Its special services sponsor
the Russian official representatives, not less rigidly, than western. Main ally Karimova
- own special services, and just that the USA have demanded investigation of actions
of these special services in Andizhan in 2005, and has caused so sharp reaction.
(though then the government has resolved carrying out of the international
investigation). Nevertheless Uzbekistan continues to remain the American ally as
Central Asia approves in work ": regional development and value for interests of the
USA " Jim Nikol from a department of the international attitudes, defenses and trade
of research service of the Congress of the USA: " The strengthened interest of the
Congress to Central Asia has been reflected in acceptance of the formulation of the
law of " the Silk way " to the end of 1999 (P.L. 106-113) supporting the big attention
of policy of the USA to region, and also the help at the resolution of conflicts,
humanitarian problems, assistance in economic development, transport (including
pipelines for energy carriers), communications, the help in the boundary control, over
development of democracy and creation of civil societies over the South-Caucasian
and central-Asian states. Assignments for foreign operations in 2006 financial to year
have been approved on November, 14th, 2005 (H.R. 3057; P.L. 109-102). Members of
conciliation committee (H.Rept. 109-265), have requested for the help to Kazakhstan
according to the Law on support of freedom of 25 million dollars for Kyrgyzstan, 24
million dollars for Tajikistan, 5 million dollars for Turkmenii, and 20 million dollars
for Uzbekistan. The law causes volume of the help to the governments of Kazakhstan
and Uzbekistan depending on promotion of democracy and respect for human rights
in their countries ". In May, 2005 State secretary Kondoliza Rajs has informed the
Congress, that Kazakhstan could not improve considerably a state of affairs in sphere
of human rights, but it has removed restrictions to the aid of Kazakhstan from reasons
of national safety. In 2005 financial year the State secretary has not reported on the
Congress that Uzbekistan has reached significant progress in respect for human rights.
As a result Section 578 about restrictions of the help has remained for it in force.
General Myers criticized reduction of programs of the help to Uzbekistan as "short-
sighted" and not "constructive", the policy reducing military influence of the USA.

Russia in this case has closer political communications with the states of Central Asia.
In 1996 Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have signed " the Shanghai
agreement " with China which has defined inviolability and essential demilitarization
of mutual borders. In 1997 they have signed the subsequent agreement,
demilitarizirujushchee former ß«óÑÔ߬«-Chinese border in the extent of 4 300 miles.
China used this agreement to put pressure upon the central-Asian states with the
purpose to keep their ethnic minority - Uigurs - from support of separatism in
province Hinjang of China, and to force them ekstragirovat Uigurs run of China. The
Shanghai organization on cooperation (SHOS) has been created in 2001, when
Uzbekistan and the Shanghai five - China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan - have decided to expand the agreement from 1996 to stabilize a situation
on the borders and together to struggle with terrorism, extremism, separatism and
drug-dealing. Members of special design bureau have agreed to form in 2001 the
central-Asian forces of fast reaction with headquarters in Kyrgyzstan which most part
is formed with armies of Russia in Tajikistan. Members of the Commonwealth of
Independent States in 2001 have approved also creation of the Antiterrorist Center
(ATTS) in Moscow with branch in Kyrgyzstan, allowing Russia to influence gathering
razveddannyh in region. In 2001 Uzbekistan has joined group SHOS, and in 2003
Antiterrorist Center SHOS there has been formed. Nikolay Bordyuzha, becoming in
2002 secretary general ODKB, has undertaken greater efforts that 4-th clause has not
remained the declaration. Advice of chapters of the states and Ministers of Defence of
the countries-participants have consistently made corresponding decisions, and it has
finished them to a practical embodiment.
At the Organization of the Contract about collective safety (ODKB) controls have
been created by armed forces of the countries-participants: command, a staff,
divisions KSBR, constantly operating working bodies ODKB - the Incorporated staff
and Secretary ODKB. In Dushanbe session of Advice of collective safety has
accepted on April, 28th, 2003 a package of the major documents connected with
becoming ODKB as the international regional organization. Naturally, that actions of
Russia cause counteraction of the USA though it is obvious, that the reasons for it not
geopolitic interests, and more likely economic interests of the American companies in
region, that however, works and for the Russian policy. Moscow " the Military-
industrial courier " in number from September, 13th, 2005 opens a problem of a
department of state of the USA in the Central Asia - to weaken influence SHOS and
ODKB. " Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmeniju the steadfast
control "from" looking for region " waits " Mr. Richard Bauchera - the assistant to the
state secretary of the USA on affairs of Southern and Central Asia. To "leisure"
reporters some data from lead in the commissions of the senate under the international
attitudes of hearings with participation of mister R.Bauchera became known. What it
for data? It appears, priorities of the American policy in this region of the world, and,
hence, R.Bauchera are creation of steady communications of the states "supervised"
by it with the countries of Southern Asia; otryv them from integration processes with
Russia and China; easing of influence of the Shanghai organization on cooperation
(SHOS) and the Organizations of the Contract about collective safety (ODKB) ".

At the same time real power levers which could affect a policy in region neither at
Russia, nor at the USA are not present. Though the help of the USA in sphere of
safety has been strengthened after September, 11th, 2001, its share volume has a little
decreased, especially in 2004-2005-¼ fiscal years after the help to Uzbekistan (see
below) has been cut down. For assistance of safety and realization of police functions
it has been allocated 187,55 million dollars in 2002 financial year (31 % of all help of
Eurasia), 101,5 million dollars (33 %) in 2003 financial year, 132,5 million dollars
(11,2 %) in 2004 financial year, and 148,5 million dollars in 2005 financial year (11,3
%). According to one of reports for 2005, the United States have paid 28 million
dollars in the form of rent payments and payment for landings and rises in Manase:
114 million dollars for fuel and 17 million dollars to the Kirghiz contractors. The
responsibility for military intervention of the USA to Central Asia bears since 1999
the Central command of the USA (USCENTCOM). It cooperates with the European
command (USEUCOM) in the program of protection of Caspian sea (Caspian [Sea]
Guard program), begun in 2003. This program assumes expansion and coordination of
the help in sphere of the safety, rendered by agencies of the USA for an establishment
" the integrated mode of protection of air and sea space and the boundary control " for
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. All the central-Asian states, except for Tajikistan, have
joined Partnership for the sake of the world (PFP) NATO to the middle of 1994
(Tajikistan has joined in 2002). The central-Asian armies participated in periodic
doctrines of partnership PFP (or type "PFP"), spent in the United States since 1995.
Armies of the USA participated in doctrines in Central Asia since 1997 (participation
of Uzbekistan in partnership PFP has been temporarily suspended after events in
Andizhan). In June, 2004 at the summit of NATO it is let out by the communique in
which the special attention of the Union to the countries of Southern Caucasus and
Central Asia is noted.

Nevertheless, at present all this only words, and vrjad 15 thousand military men of
NATO in Afghanistan can really affect a possible aggravation of a situation in Central
Asia in case of recurrence of the script of 1999-2000. As to Russia a question, how
many armies Russia can enter into this region, it is combined enough, but, considering
extent of borders of Russia on the given direction, it will demand a significant lot of
armies, rather than in the Chechen Republic in 1999 As to the last doctrines
"Boundary" from Russia in doctrines " the tactical group " of structure KSBR, a
mouth of 77-th brigade of sea infantry of the Caspian flotilla took part only, a part of
fighting aircraft, 5 ships of the Caspian flotilla, over 500 military men (mainly urgent
service), and from divisions of the »Ó¿ó«½ªß¬«-Ural military district - operative
group; total nearby 1 thousand soldier, officers and generals. From Kazakhstan the
battalion of sea infantry, a battalion of the diverse ships of a brigade of a coast guard,
division of aeromobile forces, a grouping of front army aircraft, a part of rear and
technical maintenance, operative group took part; only 1400 military men. From
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - on one motor-shooting platoon, operative groups; only
100 soldier and officers. From Uzbekistan - military observers. Thus, it is forces
rather modest. The USA at present in a condition to throw in the given region some
tens thousand military men, however in case of the beginning of war with Iran
Americans are unable carry out military intervention no matter where still. Besides
the strategy of the USA described above assumes presence allied it of forces on local
theatre of operations.

At present the potential opponent - talibs - possess modest opportunities concerning

Central Asia. At the same time it is impossible to dismiss opportunities of Islamic
revolution in Pakistan, that to equivalently regional accident. However, not smaller
accident would be caused with struggle of local clans in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
which the Islamic opposition could use. In this case the region of Central Asia will
appear defenceless, and not only armies of NATO should recede on base in
Kyrgyzstan, but already Russia should throw armies to Kazakhstan according to
interstate obligations as defensibility of Kazakhstan with disintegration of the USSR
and outflow of Russian-speaking experts has fallen to the order. At the same time at
Russia in this case an output does not remain, as it is more rational to establish lines
of defense on borders of Kazakhstan, rather than the Orenburg area. As is known,
Kazakhstan possesses the one fourth part of world reserves of uranium. Kazakhstan
and Uzbekistan one of the main world manufacturers low obogashchennogo uranium.
In territory of Kazakhstan, in Aktau, the fast nuclear reactor which was unique in the
world nuclear water-desalinating installation (the world's only nuclear desalinization
facility) is located. Closed in 1999, it had almost 300 metric tons of the uranium and
plutonium fulfilled fuel in special stores (from which three tons are suitable for
manufacturing the weapon). Besides the nuclear weapon in Kazakhstan, in
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan there are active research reactors,
uranium mines, mills for nuclear materials and dumps of nuclear waste. Many of
these objects as inform, are badly protected from larceny. Besides during the Soviet
period Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan had in the territory the chemical and biological
weapon (HBO).

In 1997 and 1999 the American-Kazakhstan agreements on a conclusion from

operation of reactor Aktau have been signed. The help within the limits of the
agreement on reduction of mutual threat (SVU) was used for simplification of
transportation 11¬¿½«úÓá¼¼«ó uranium in fuel cores from Uzbekistan to Russia in
2004. Hardly someone in senses will agree on an establishment of authority of Islamic
fundamentalists in these countries. The question of oil and gas for hardly the same
Turkmenija where mosques of the citation from the Koran are bound with statements
from the book "Ruhnama" Turkmenbashi and where imams tell to people about what
happiness to have such head as Niyazov, sent by the Allah as a gift and rescue for the
Turkmen, seems to the world oil-and-gas companies the reliable guarantor of safety in
region is not less important. Importance of the same Turkmenistan in the given area is
known. It is how much known, the Russian, British, American companies closely
enough cooperate in the various organizations (for example " Oil club "), and create
joint projects (for example, "Rosneft" and " British Petroleum ", LUKOJL and
"Canoco"). Already nowadays position in Central Asia causes at of some their heads
alarm.

So, Moscow "Kommersant" on September, 6th, 2006 in clause "Gazprom" has

surrendered Turkmenii " makes comments on the consent of " Gazprom " within three
years to buy at Turkmenii 162 billion cubic metre of natural gas on 100 US dollars for
one thousand cubic metre. " As a result the monopoly will pay for Turkmen gas on $6
billion more, than gathered. However thus "Gazprom" till 2010 will supervise all
export of gas Turkmenii to the Europe. And Ukraine, cost of gas will pay for the price
compromise for which, by estimations of branch experts, since October will grow up
to $140 for one thousand cubic metre. However Turkmenistan can become the main
competitor of "Gazprom" in the new markets, and first of all on Chinese. As is known,
in March of this year heads of "Gazprom" and the Chinese national oil-and-gas
company (CNPC) have signed the Report on deliveries of natural gas from Russia in
the Peoples Republic of China. In the document the basic arrangements on terms,
volumes, routes of deliveries of gas and principles of definition of the formula of the
price are fixed. Thus there are two routes: the western ("Altai") and east. The first will
realize the western route which means deliveries of gas from deposits of Western
Siberia, and then east - with deliveries from Eastern Siberia. On each of channels it is
supposed to deliver 30-40 billion cubic metre of gas a year. After this in April
Turkmenbashi has signed with China the agreement on deliveries of gas for the period
of 30 years on 30 billion cubic metre a year ". According to the Ministry of power of
the USA, the Caspian region develops as an essential source of oil and gas for the
world markets. In the given region such companies, as "Chevron" (USA), "Exxon"
(USA), "Pennzoil" (USA), "Amaco" (USA), " British Petroleum " (Great Britain),
"Ramco" (Great Britain), TPAO (Turkey) work. Under the statement of the Ministry
of power of the USA Kazakhstan possesses the greatest proved oil stocks in the
Caspian region in volume of 9-29 billion barrels, and has 65 billion cubic foots of
natural gas.
Oil export of Kazakhstan now makes approximately 1,3 million barrels a day. Some
power companies of the USA and other private foreign investors have been
discouraged last months in connection with more severe constraints of the
government, taxes, and penalties. Turkmenija, according to the Ministry of power,
possesses 101 billion cubic foots of the proved stocks of gas, and is one of its largest
owners in the world (report CRS RS21190 " the Caspian oil and gas: manufacture and
prospects ", the author - Bernard A. Gelb). In December, 1997 Turkmenija has opened
the first pipeline from Central Asia in an external world outside of Russia, to Iran that
has enabled as Turkmenii, and to Iran to bypass the western competitors. The project
of creation of one more gas main from Turkmenii to Pakistan also is long enough
discussed (over ten years). Niyazov has signed the 25-years agreement with Putin in
2003 about delivery of Russia approximately 12 % from extraction of gas. Delivery
will increase in 2009, i.e. will capture the most part of made gas Turkmenii.
Nevertheless Turkmenija has suspended deliveries of gas to Russia in the beginning of
2005, trying to receive higher price for gas, but has agreed on full payment by cash
instead of partial barter payments. In the beginning of 2006 Turkmenija has again
offered Russia higher prices for gas. In October, 2005 Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan
basically have agreed to transport some part of the Kazakhstan oil through pipeline
BTD, having given to Kazakhstan the export route which is not passing on territory
Russia. The first Kazakh exporting oil pipeline which is not crossing Russia, has been
finished in the end of 2005, and has connected Atyrau at the Caspian coast of
Kazakhstan to province Hinjang in China. Its productivity of 200 000 barrels in day.

Hardly someone in Moscow, London and Washington will agree to lose this market,
and if necessary not only will independently organize protection nefte-and gas mains
forces of the private security companies, but also will demand from own governments
of military contingents. But so important region draws attention and "al-¬á¿ñÙ"
which not without justification sees in it an opportunity of reception of jumping-off
place for the future world revolution. To leaders "al-¬á¿ñÙ" in sequence and patience
to refuse it is impossible, and they are not deprived by foresight, if so much years
resist as the USA, and to their allies (and the same Russia, de facto to the ally, but de
jure the opponent of the USA). " The independent newspaper " in number from
September, 5th, 2006 ascertains, that predictions of the prime minister of Kyrgyzstan
Felix Kulova come true: in the south of republic Islamic extremists become more
active. " In the south of Kirghizia are taken measures of the raised safety in
connection with the acted information on possible attempts of breaks of the armed
groups of insurgents which go from Afghanistan through Tajikistan, Batkenskuju area
of Kirghizia in the Uzbek part of Fergana valley. According to Service of national
safety of Kirghizia, insurgents are citizens of Tajikistan, Kirghizia and Uzbekistan... "
Position in the south of Kirghizia is aggravated with strain of relations between
aboriginals and Uzbeks who make in the Kirghiz part of Fergana valley about 40
percent of the population. " Bloody collisions between Uzbeks and Kirghiz can repeat,
- chairman of a community of Uzbeks dzhalal-áíáñ߬«® of area of Kirghizia, the
deputy of parliament of republic Kadyrdzhan Batyrov approves. - After last year's
revolution in the country the vacuum of authority was formed. In conditions legal
bespredela the Kirghiz Uzbeks feel defenceless before "revolutionaries-
¼áÓú¿¡á½á¼¿" who have felt the impunity.

On September, 14th, 2006 izvestia"News" in clause under heading " Three presidents
have sentenced to death " approve: " Presidents of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and
Kirghizia threaten to destroy. The leader of Islamic movement of Uzbekistan I (GO)
Tahir JUldashev has demanded from them to stop " prosecutions, terror and reprisals
against moslems ". Otherwise presidents are waited " with a penalty for crimes which
they make ", is spoken in circulation JUldasheva, acted in mass-media of three
republics by e-mail ". In the beginning of July the chief of service of national safety of
Kyrgyzstan has declared, that at the Kirghiz authorities is that proof, that Uigurs have
established communications with Muslim radicals with the purpose of creation of a
new terrorist grouping - " Islamic movement of Turkestan ". In this grouping, it has
told, people from Islamic movement of Uzbekistan have entered also (GO), which
members battled on the party of talibs and "al-¬á¿ñÙ" in Afghanistan, and from a
radical grouping " Hizb ut-ÔáÕÓ¿Ó " which as was considered, usually does not
suppose violence. Time so dear organization as the Institute of the analysis of a world
policy of the USA, considers practically obvious has begun new wars in the given
region till 2025, there are no reasons with this position to disagree.

It is necessary to consider and that the clan system of attitudes in Central Asia
promotes decomposition of machinery of state (what, it appears, to prove are not
present necessities), and that and to decomposition of armed forces which become, on
the one hand, disabled, and with another (on behalf of first of all so-called "special
divisions") dangerous to own state. The main cementing force of machinery of state in
Central Asia as in days of the USSR, and Russian empire was Russian population.
Having appeared without protection of Moscow, Russian began to lose positions in a
state machinery, including in armed forces of the new states. Business was aggravated
with outflow of the Russian-speaking population though the Moscow newspaper
"Kommersant" in number from September, 11th, 2005 has published as a whole
pessimistic clause under the name " Great nepereselenie ". Regions are not ready to
reception of compatriots, and compatriots to crossing, considers the edition. That
ability of the new Central Asian states to resistance constantly decreases, and it is
possible to take for granted, that without the foreign military help it will not be
possible to them protivopostojat aggression of forces "al-¬á¿ñÙ", capable to carry out
as certificates of external aggression, and to arrange revolts and military coup d'etats
inside of these states.
As to the USA even if the last will not get into adventure of war with Iran, hardly they
will send more than several "easy" brigades and one-two "heavy" divisions. Besides
even such contingent will require the big number of rear parts and divisions which
supply will carry out or through territory of Transcaucasia, or, that while it is
improbable (but is possible), Russia. By virtue of significant territory of Central Asia
war will demand a plenty of armies which messages not only maneuverable will, but
also item actions. Hardly the American government will want, that the American
armies have received new front of operations besides Iraq. The USA will require
available allied forces which can be used at support of the American "mobile" parts
and divisions for strengthening efficiency of actions of the Air Forces of the USA.
The unique possible ally of the USA here is Russia, and without dependence from
political contradictions interests of the Russian business, will lead to the similar
union. Russia in case of the beginning of the "big" war in Central Asia without
declaration of general mobilization hardly is able to collect the necessary quantity of
armies, and it should resort to the practice of creation of forces of special purpose
checked up in the was Yugoslavia, "irreguljarnyh" parts and divisions from the most
"reliable" part of local population (first of all, naturally, Russian). However even in
this case armies will not suffice, for so far as they did not suffice in 1999 for the
Chechen Republic it is not clear, whence they can be taken after numerous reductions
of armed forces. Certainly, there is a way of general mobilization and expansion of the
patriotic propaganda company to the country, however considering modern political
trends in Moscow there are doubts that in the Kremlin will agree to translate a
national economy on military rails.

However here there is one more factor till now poorly considered, namely NATO. The
European allies of the USA centuries conducted wars on the most various theatres of
operations. It is not necessary to exaggerate value of that circumstance, that nowadays
the European society is captured by ideology of pacifism. In a society of the USA was
not less similar trends, but it has not prevented to appear to the American armies in
2001 in Afghanistan, and in 2003 in Iraq, and to president Bush to win in 2004 the
next presidential elections. Besides the western inhabitant though does not love war,
but even less it wishes to remain without fuel on refuellings and without gas during
the winter period, and last condition can appear under threat of with the beginning of
war in Central Asia. First, deliveries of Turkmen gas and the Kazakhstan oil will be
stopped; secondly, the Arabian countries will try to strike on economy of the West at
new war of the same Americans " against moslems "; And thirdly, approach of war
borders of Russia will threaten safety gazo-and oil pipelines of Russia from
diversions. As only Tadjiks in Russia lives nearby 3 and a half of millions, and thus
cases of travel to Russia under documents of Tajikistan of citizens of Afghanistan
(including members of the extremist organizations) it is impossible to guarantee to the
European Community reliability of deliveries of energy carriers have already been
fixed. The organization of protection of objects of an oil-and-gas complex in process
of transition of capitals from one company and bank in others already now passes to
joint Russian-British structures of safety (an example - the project "Sakhalin-2"). As
the same penetration became characteristic and for the companies from other
countries it is obvious, as they will wish to create similar structures for protection of
the interests.

As similar structures are created at support of power structures of this or that state at
increase of threat for objects, which similar structures will protect, sending of military
contingents is quite natural. From the European countries in the field of the Russian
power a leaging role the Great Britain and Germany and consequently it is necessary
to assume play what exactly they will show the greatest interest in protection of the
interests in territory of the former USSR. However, being based on experiences of war
in Iraq it is possible to assume, that hardly the Great Britain will send a significant
contingent on territory of Russia; however Germany having at present the strongest
European overland forces, hardly remains in the party, and its contingent becomes a
basis for new European "peacemakers". The countries of the European Community
have numerous enough overland forces which partly have kept "classical" character
set still within "cold" war, and they can carry out a problem set them

Sources: 1. Chester U.Richards. Mobile impregnable armed forces. - "Gendalf",

Moscow 2002.2. Deniel Smith, Markus Korbin, Christopher Hellman. New armed
forces - "Gendalf", Moscow, 2002.3. Mirkovich Todor. Snage the GARDEN for
regionalno angazhovane // Magazine (a military review) Joint Staff of the
young/YUGOSLAVIAN army " Vojni Glasnik " (up to 1993ú.), with 1993 " Novi
glasnik " (Belgrad-ßÑÓí¿n) - ¹ 2, 2001.4. Sivachek Jozhe, the colonel, potkonjak-
½Ò¬¿þ Brankitsa. nelinearna bitka - operation of XXI century // Magazine (a military
review) Joint Staff of the young/YUGOSLAVIAN army " Vojni Glasnik " (up to
1993ú.), with 1993 " Novi glasnik " (Belgrad-ßÑÓí¿n) - ¹ 4, 2003.5. http: //
www.rojname.com 6. http: // www.islamonline.net 7. http: // leav-www.army.mil 8.
Vladimir Yevseyev. Problems of safety of Russia on its southern boundaries // the
Seminar " Military safety of Russia: traditions and realities ". Carnegie's Moscow
Center 9. Andrey Grozin. Central Asia and Kazakhstan // the Newsletter-analytical of
Institute of the CIS countries and Institute of diaspora and integration. - ¹ 38.10. Jim
Nikol. Central Asia: regional development and value for interests of the USA // the
Department of the international attitudes, defenses and trade, Research service of the
Congress of the USA on March, 10th, 2006 11. http: // www.tol.cz 12. Central Asia -
2025. It is a lot of oil and many conflicts. Institute of the Analysis of the World policy
13. The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. " Strategic Paradigms 2025: Planning of
safety of the USA for the New Era " \Strategic Paradigms 2025:US Security Planning
for a New Era. 14. Interview of the Plenipotentiary Ambassador of Republic
Tajikistan in Russian Federation Safara Safarova // the Red star. - on September, 9th,
2006

Biography of Oleg Valecky.

Work in former Yugoslavia(from 1996 untill 2007)in demining and EOD companies
RONCO(USA),Minetech(UK),HELP UDT(Germany),Dok-Ing(Croatia),PMC
Inzenering(Serbia),in Iraq in 2004 in PSD company Erinys(UK)
Military service in Soviet Army (10/10/1986-10/10/1988) in East Germany.,in
Russian police (10/01/1992-08/15/1992) in Southern Osetia /Georgia,in Army of
Serbian Republic in Bosnia (03/15/1993-01/19/1995) ,in Yugoslavian Army
(04/01/1999-06/17/1999) ,in Police of Macedonia (07/15/2001-08/20/2001)

I am author of book Yugoslavian war (author Oleg Valecky).The book describe

military history of war in former Yugoslavia from 1991 until 1995 year. There are
many
Example of combat tactic of infantry, armor troops, combat engeaneers, aviation,
paratroopers, SF units of Army and Police of both sides. Both sides is mean as JNA
and armies of Republic of Srpska and Serbian Kraina,as well Croatia Army,Army of
Bosnia(inclaude units of modzaheds).This is military analis of this war.The book
"Yugoslavian war" can find in book shop
Falanster, Moscow, Malij Gnezdikovskiy 12-27(metro
Pushkinskaya) telephone +7 495 5044795 and +7 495
6928821,email falanster@mail.ru
You can find this book on http://militera.lib.ru/research/valetsky/index.html

Stories about humanitarian and comabat demining and EOD operations

http://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ov.shtml
http://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ova-2.shtml
http://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ovb.shtml

http://tewton.narod.ru/boy/val-iliev.html

http://tewton.narod.ru/boy/val-miny.html

http://www.vrazvedka.ru/wv2/content/view/59/88888902/

http://almanach.gspo.ru/index.html

Story „Private Military Companies in Iraq“(on Russian)

http://artofwar.ru/w/waleckij_o_w/chvk.shtml
http://www.hronos.km.ru/statii/2006/valecki_chastn.html
http://www.soldat.ru/doc/valetskii.html