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Methodology:
Many assumptions were made -- time allowed for research was very limited. Assumption #1: The study published in 2003 by the NJDEP is accurate. It will be repeatedly cited as the 2003 study. I am completely unsure of how to calculate these sort of things on my own and I know it would take a substantial amount of time to figure it out. So I am assuming that the Unit Areal Loads determined by the previous Phosphorous study are adequate. I converted their Unit Areal Loads into acres and multiplied them by the amount of acres I have of each category in order to determine the 2013 Phosphorous loads in Hammonton Lake.
Unit Areal Loads (kg TP/acre/yr) 0.040 FOREST/ WETLAND/ WATER 0.404 URBAN 0.648 RESIDENTIAL, HIGH/MEDIUM 0.607 AGRICULTURE 0.810 COMMMERCIAL 0.688 INDUSTRIAL 0.283 RESIDENTIAL, LOW/RURAL 0.028 ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION TABLE 1 (ABOVE): Unit Areal Loads of Phosphorous, based on numbers from the 2003 study.
Assumption #2: My grouping of land uses is in line with the NJDEPs Division of Watershed Management. The land use codes generated by NJDEP GIS downloads were not the same as the land use classifications in the previous Phosphorous study. Anderson classification conversion into their classification was in their methodology, but it varies from year to year and they used outdated classificationfrom 1995/1997. Only the 1995 classification had barren landtherefore barren land had been grouped with forest, wetland, and water. This has been verified as acceptable by Dr. Chirenje.
Assumption #3: Calculations can all be based on simple linear algebra. It is assumed that the town was developed bit by bit within the last few years, not in bursts. There are no land use calculations for 2013so the change in types of land use will be based on the change between 1995, 2002, and 2007 and will assume that changes will continue to go that way. Line of best fit has been used in excel. Therefore, the land use would look like this:
Assumption #4: The watershed has not changed in size over the last 10 years. When acreage totals were calculated using land use, they did not all match up. This may be because some areas were not classified fully in earlier years. Either way, the land area seems to have gotten bigger over time. Because this doesnt make sense (I clipped the same sized area each time), the 2007 land use has been shrunken (slightly) to be the same size as 1995, and the 2002 has been as well. This was done by multiplying all of the 2007 acreage by 0.9608 and the 2002 acreage by 0.9944. These are the proportions that the 1995 land use makes up of them (1995 totaled 1804.4 acres, 2002 totaled 1814.6 acres, and 2007 totaled 1878.1 acres). Therefore, the total acreage ends up being the same for all (1804.4 acres). Calculations are simplified that way. Further research and examination would need to take place to determine where the acres really did go. 2013 projections did not get converted into 1995 values because they were off by less than an acre, which is negligible. There is a possibility that the watershed has changed in size over the years due to climate/usage changes, but that has not been looked into. Assumption #5: Lake Hammonton is 61.4 acres in size. This acreage will be considered space for atmospheric deposition and will be subtracted from the Forest/ Wetland/ Water categories in future calculations. Also, the volume of the lake is approximately 79,000 m3 and the allowable load into Hammonton Lake, as determined by the 2003 Study is 210 kg/year.
Conclusions:
If a healthy Hammonton Lake has a maximum inflow of 210 kg TP/year, proper management must take place immediately. The current inflow has been determined to be 784.4 kg TP/year, a startling 374% higher than Hammonton Lakes total maximum yearly load. The ongoing urbanization of Hammonton has been increasing the phosphorous inflow by almost 8 kg TP/year. A management plan should focus on limiting further urbanization and changing the ways of the residents/business owners within the municipality of Hammonton.
Sources:
New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, Division of Watershed Management. (2003). Total maximum daily loads for phosphorus to address nine eutrophic lakes in the atlantic coastal water region. Retrieved from website: http://www.epa.gov/waters/tmdldocs/10582_Atlantic Lakes.PDF Rutgers University Library, (2001). Lake restoration feasibility study: Hammonton lake, town of hammonton, atlantic county (R and V File #0113T044) Retrieved from Remington and Vernick Engineer website: http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.1/NJEDL.Report.n4461