Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Market Charts
Q4 2012
as of 9/30/12
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Special Risks
Investments in securities of growth companies may be especially volatile. Value investing involves the risk that undervalued securities may not appreciate as anticipated. Small and mid-sized company stock is typically more volatile than that of larger, more established businesses, as these stocks tend to be more sensitive to changes in earnings expectations and tend to have lower trading volumes than large-cap securities, creating potential for more erratic price movements. It may take a substantial period of time to realize a gain on an investment in a small or mid-sized company, if any gain is realized at all. There is no guarantee that the issuers of stocks held by mutual funds will declare dividends in the future, or that ifdividends are declared, they will remain at their current levels or increase over time. Foreign investments may be volatile and involve additional expenses and special risks, including currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and political and economic factors. Investments in emerging and developing markets may be especiallyvolatile. Fixed income investing entails credit risks and interest rate risks. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and a Funds share prices can fall. Below-investment-grade (high yield or junk) bonds are more at risk of default and are subject to liquidity risk. Asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities are also subject to prepayment risk. Senior loans are typically lower rated (more at risk of default) and may be illiquid investments (which may not have aready market). A portion of a municipal bond funds distributions may be taxable and may increase taxes for investors subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Capital gains distributions are taxable as capital gains. Investing in the commodity markets involves potentially higher volatility and greater risk of loss of principal than traditional equity or debt securities. Commodity-linked investments are considered speculative and have substantial risks, including the risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value. Investing in a limited number of sectors, such as gold, oil and real estate, can increase volatility and exposure to issues affecting that sector. Investments in securities of real estate and small-cap companies may be especially volatile. Because they do not have an active trading market, shares of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) may be illiquid. The lack of an active trading market may make it difficult to value or sell shares of REITs promptly at an acceptable price. Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss.
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Index Definitions
The Barclays Capital Global Emerging Markets Index represents global emerging market bonds. The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an investment-grade domestic bond index. The Barclays Capital U.S. Credit/Corporate/Investment Grade Bond Index represents primarily investment-grade corporate bonds within the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. The Barclays Capital U.S. Government Bond Index is composed of all publicly issued, non-convertible, domestic debt of the U.S. Government or any agency thereof, quasi-federal corporation or corporate debt guaranteed. The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Treasury Index represents public obligations of the U.S. Treasury with a remaining maturity of one year or more. The Citigroup Non-U.S. World Government Bond Index (USD Unhedged) is composed of foreign government bonds with maturities over one year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) program produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. The Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Index is designed to mirror the investable universe of the $U.S.-denominated high yield debt market. The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index tracks the performance of senior loans. The FTSE National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT) Equity REITs Index is an index consisting of certain companies that own and operate income-producing real estate that have 75% or more of their respective gross invested assets in the equity or mortgage debt of commercialproperties. The JPMorgan U.S. Dollar Tradable Currency Index is based on tradeweighted exchange rate indices and tracks performance versus 16 major trading partners of the U.S. determined by 2000 trade data. The JPMorgan Domestic High Yield Index is an index composed of noninvestment-grade corporate bonds. The JPMorgan ELMI+ Index tracks total returns for local-currencydenominated money market instruments in the emerging markets. The JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified Bond Index is a uniquely weighted version of the EMBI Global Index, which limits the weights of those countries with larger debt stocks by only including specified portions of these countries eligible current face amounts of debt outstanding. The JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Unhedged Index is a global local emerging markets index, consisting of regularly traded, liquid fixed rate, domestic currency government bonds. The Merrill Lynch AAA and BBB Municipal Indices measure the performance of U.S. tax-exempt bonds rated AAA and BBB, respectively. The Merrill Lynch Municipal Airport, Revenue and Tobacco Indices measure the performance of U.S. tax-exempt airport, revenue and tobacco bonds, respectively. The Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index is a broad-based measure of the performance of the U.S. tax-exempt bond market.
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7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Global Economic Forecast World GDP Growth Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) Key U.S. Economic Indicators What Is the Fiscal Cliff? Eurozone Sovereign Bond Spreads Remain Elevated Mutual Fund Flows Earnings Yield on Stocks Higher than Yield on U.S. Treasuries U.S. Equity Valuations European Stocks Appear to be Attractively Valued Favorable Secular Trends in Emerging Markets U.S. Equity Dividend Yields vs. Treasury Yields Many Fixed Income Yields Are Uncompetitive Credit Spreads Still Elevated Real Yields Abroad May Be More Attractive
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
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SUNNY
Global Growth
U.S. Politics
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Canada 2.5%
Russia 4.0%
Japan 3.6%
Mexico 4.1%
Thailand 4.2%
Brazil 0.5%
*Australia as of 3/31/12. Source of chart data: Haver Analytics, 6/30/12. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country inagiven year.
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Global PMIs
65
60 Expansion
55
Index Level
50
45
Contraction
40
Source of chart data: Haver Analytics, 8/31/12. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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105 100
Index Level
Thousands
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
8% 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2007
8% 4 0 4 8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1. Source of chart data: Haver Analytics and the Bureau of Labor Statistics as of 7/31/12. 2. Source of chart data: Haver Analytics and Federal Reserve Board as of 7/31/12. 3. Source of chart data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Haver Analytics as of 7/31/12. 4. Source of chart data: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Haver Analytics as of 7/31/12.
10
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Expiration of the Alternative Minimum Tax Patch 2009 Stimulus Spending Rolling Over Sequestered Spending Tax Cuts Come into Effect
*Includes 3.8% tax surcharge from Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Source of chart data: Congressional Budget Office, 8/31/12.
11
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Lehman Collapse
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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n n
Fear Trade
U.S. $ Billions
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
13
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MSCI World Index Earnings Yield Spread Over 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
8%
6 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. The earnings yield is calculated as earnings divided by price. The earnings yield spread is the difference between the MSCI World Index earnings yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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S&P 500 Index Earnings Per Share (EPS) Recession Scenario* $88 Trailing 12-month Earnings $99 Wall Street Estimates 2013 $103
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Multiple 11x 968 1,085 1,134 12x 1,056 1,183 1,237 13x 1,144 1,282 1,340 14x 1,232 1,380 1,443 15x 1,320 1,479 1,547 16x 1,408 1,578 1,650
Source of chart data: Bloomberg, 8/31/12. Table is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to depict or predict the performance of the S&P 500 Index or any particular investment. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Earnings per share is the portion of a companys profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. Price-to-earnings ratio is a valuation ratio of a companys current share price compared to its actual per-share earnings over the last 12 months. Pastperformance does not guarantee futureresults.
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France
Netherlands
1.1x
1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012
1.3x
2012
4x 3 2
5x
Spain
4 3 2
Italy
0.9x
2012
0.7x
2012
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Price-to-Book Ratio calculated using respective MSCI country indices. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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9.0x
Price-to-Earnings (S&P 500 Index)
13.5x
(S&P 500 Index)
11.7x
(MSCI Emerging Markets Index)
14.0x
(MSCI EAFE Index)
1. As of 1/1/82. 2. As of 4/30/12 (latest data available). 3. As of 12/31/10 (latest data available). 4. IMF projections for 2012 as of 4/30/12 (latest data available).
Source of chart data: Bloomberg, World Bank, International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, UN Population Division, Haver Analytics, 8/31/12 (unless otherwise indicated). Price-toEarnings Ratio is a valuation ratio of a companys current share price compared to its actual per-share earnings over the last 12 months. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Pastperformance does not guarantee future results.
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60%
% S&P 500 Stocks with Dividend Yields Greater than 10-Year Treasury Yields (left axis) 10-Year Treasury Yield (right axis)
18% 16 14 12 10
45
30 8 6 15 4 2 0 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 0
Source of chart data: Bloomberg, Ned Davis Research, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. There is no guarantee that the issuers of stocks held by mutual funds will declare dividends in the future, or that if dividends are declared, they will remain at their current levels or increase over time. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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8% 7
Yields
6.7 6.4
6 5 4 2.9
4.7
1.6
CPI = 1.4%
1.8
1 0 10-Year U.S. Treasury Barclays Capital Barclays Capital Merrill Lynch BBB U.S. Aggregate U.S. Credit/Corporate/ Municipal Bond Index Investment Grade Bond Index Bond Index Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index* JP Morgan Domestic High Yield Index
*Implied yield calculated by adding the index option-adjusted spread to the 3-month LIBOR rate. Source of chart data: Barclays Capital, FactSet, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan, 8/31/12. CPI as of 7/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages34. Past performance does not guarantee futureresults.
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Lehman Bankruptcy
Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Index Spread Over Treasuries 1/31/86 to 8/31/12 Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index Spread Over LIBOR 1/31/92 to 8/31/12
1,500
Tech Bubble
1,000
Panic
0 1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Source of chart data: Credit Suisse Research, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Pastperformance does not guarantee future results.
20
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Nominal 10-Year Sovereign Bond Rate Real Yield Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year Percent Change
South Africa
Source of chart data: Bloomberg, 8/31/12. CPI data is most recent available, as of 7/31/12 for all countries except Australia, which is as of 6/30/12. Nominal yields are that of each countrys on-the-run (most recently issued) 10-year government bond. Real yield is equal to the countrys 10-year sovereign bond rate minus the year-over-year change in the countrys consumer price index. Pastperformance does not guarantee future results.
21
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23 24 25
Equity Size and Style Returns S&P 500 Index and GICS Sector Returns Market Valuation High Pairwise Correlations: Risk-On/Risk-Off Pattern Continues Equity Dividend Yield vs. Treasury Yields The Power of Dividends Many U.S. Companies Provide International Exposure
Domestic Equities
26 27 28 29
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YTD
Growth
4.07%
1-Year
Growth Value Core Growth
Core
3.64%
Value
Core
Mid
3.49%
3.39%
3.28%
Small
2.03%
1.91%
1.78%
3-Year (Annualized)
Value Core Growth
5-Year (Annualized)
Value Large 0.85% Core
1.47%
10-Year (Annualized)
Value Large
6.57%
Growth
3.69%
Core
6.86%
Growth
7.02%
Mid
1.78%
2.47%
2.92%
Mid
9.54%
9.88%
9.97%
Small
0.73%
1.90%
2.94%
Small
8.49%
9.00%
9.40%
Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Equity style boxes are based on targeted equity styles as determined by valuation measures. Large Value, Large Core and Large Growth are represented by Russell 1000 Value, Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 Growth Indices, respectively. Mid Value, Mid Core and Mid Growth are represented by Russell Midcap Value, Russell Midcap and Russell Midcap Growth Indices, respectively. Small Value, Small Core and Small Growth are represented by Russell 2000 Value, Russell 2000 and Russell 2000 Growth Indices, respectively. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Domestic Equities
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Total Return
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials
2002 23.82%
2005
2008 33.49%
2010
YTD as of 8/31/12 17.60% 11.05 4.07 17.58 13.31 9.33 20.30 7.84
6.36%
3.58
27.66%
14.11 20.46 12.13
4.26
11.13 14.64 18.82 26.34
15.43
34.87
31.54
10.89
31.37
6.48 6.46 2.32 0.99 4.42 5.63 16.84 4.91
34.40 18.63
7.15 12.03 16.31 22.53 11.94 19.38 5.49
55.32
22.81 39.92 43.14 45.66 30.49 28.98 37.00
17.06
12.73 0.59 2.41 9.75 6.27
1.68
18.03 2.56 13.19 19.85 24.28 10.88
7.53
13.29 8.42 18.63
2.90
26.73 10.19 22.20 18.97 5.46 15.06
Information Technology 37.41 Materials Telecomm. Services Utilities S&P 500 Index 5.46 34.11 29.99 22.10
47.23
38.19
61.72
48.59
7.08
26.26 28.68
36.80
20.99 15.79
8.93
11.91 26.46
21.01 3.06
13.51
19.91
2.11
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) methodology has been widely accepted as an industry analysis framework for investment research, portfolio management and asset allocation. The GICS structure consists of 10 sectors above. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Pastperformance does not guarantee future results.
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Domestic Equities
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Average: 15.78x 20 15 10 5
13.45x
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Price/Earnings Ratio (last 12 months) is a valuation ratio of a companys current share price compared to its actual per-share earnings over the last 12months. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
25
Domestic Equities
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Median 3-Month (63-Day) Correlation of S&P 500 Stocks to the S&P 500 Index
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1989 Average: 0.48
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source of chart data: Ned Davis Research, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee futureresults.
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Domestic Equities
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20%
S&P 500 Index Dividend Yield 2.12% U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield 1.55%
15
10
08 2009 2010 2011 2012
0 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no guarantee that the issuers of stocks held by mutual funds will declare dividends in the future, or that if dividends are declared, they will remain at their current levels or increase over time.
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Domestic Equities
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Dividend Growers and Initiators (16.60, 9.51) All Dividend-paying Stocks (17.09, 8.70)
Dividend Payers with No Change (18.43, 7.03)
4 15
25
30
Source of chart data: Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. Copyright 2012 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved, 8/31/12. Based on equal-weighted geometric average of total return of dividend-paying and non-dividend-paying historical S&P 500 Index stocks, rebalanced annually. Uses actual annual dividends to identify dividend-paying stocks and changes on a calendar-year basis. The performance shown represents the risk-return characteristics of each of the five categories with annual standard deviation (measure of risk) measured on the x-axis and average annualized return measured on the y-axis. The performance shown is for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any Oppenheimer fund. Past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no guarantee that the issuers of stocks held by mutual funds will declare dividends in the future, or that if dividends are declared, they will remain at their current levels or increase over time.
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Domestic Equities
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Source of chart data: Standard & Poors S&P 500 2011 Global Sales Report, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34.
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Domestic Equities
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31 32 33
Developed Markets Performance Emerging Markets Performance Country Risk and Return Valuation of Major World Markets International and Emerging Markets Share of Global Capitalization Correlation of Major Indices Dividend Yields Higher Abroad
International Equities
34 35 36 37
30
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2002 Best
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
YTD as of 8/31/12
Australia 0.28%
Germany 64.79%
Australia 31.95%
Japan 25.63%
Germany 36.79%
Germany 35.93%
Japan 29.11%
Australia 76.77%
Japan 15.59%
UK 2.52%
Germany 15.24%
Japan 10.11%
Australia 51.36%
UK 19.57%
Australia 17.54%
France 35.42%
Australia 29.79%
France 42.71%
UK 43.37%
Australia 14.73%
Australia 10.79%
Australia 11.48%
UK 15.23%
France 41.03%
France 19.22%
France 10.59%
Australia 32.51%
France 14.03%
Germany 45.50%
France 33.26%
Germany 9.32%
Japan 14.19%
France 9.21%
France 20.83%
Japan 36.15%
Germany 16.66%
Germany 10.52%
UK 30.66%
UK 8.39%
UK 48.32%
Germany 26.56%
UK 8.80%
France 16.00%
UK 8.12%
Worst
Germany 32.90%
UK 32.06%
Japan 15.95%
UK 7.38%
Japan 6.33%
Japan 4.14%
Australia 49.96%
Japan 6.39%
France 3.23%
Germany 17.45%
Japan 0.03%
Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Country returns are based on each countrys respective MSCI Index. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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International Equities
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2002 Best
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
YTD as of 8/31/12
Russia 15.71%
Brazil 115.01%
Mexico 48.32%
Russia 73.77%
China 82.87%
Brazil 79.99%
Mexico 42.94%
Brazil 128.62%
Mexico 27.61%
Mexico 12.11%
Mexico 14.27%
India 8.37%
China 87.57%
Brazil 36.47%
Brazil 57.05%
Russia 55.93%
India 73.11%
China 50.83%
Russia 104.91%
India 20.95%
China 18.24%
India 9.36%
Mexico 13.31%
India 78.36%
India 19.11%
Mexico 49.11%
India 51.00%
China 66.24%
Brazil 56.06%
India 102.81%
Russia 19.40%
Russia 19.30%
Russia 5.80%
China 14.05%
Russia 75.94%
Russia 5.69%
India 37.57%
Brazil 45.80%
Russia 24.79%
India 64.63%
China 62.63%
Brazil 6.81%
Brazil 21.59%
China 2.32%
Worst
Brazil 30.65%
Mexico 32.81%
China 1.89%
China 19.77%
Mexico 41.44%
Mexico 12.15%
Russia 73.83%
Mexico 56.63%
China 4.83%
India 37.17%
Brazil 5.77%
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
MSCI EM
(Emerging Markets)
Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Country returns are based on each countrys respective MSCI Index. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
32
International Equities
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30
Brazil
25 Average Annual Return (%) India China EM Australia stra tra ra al li lia ia ia 10 U.S. EAFE 5 UK 0 15 Japan 20 25 30 35 40 France Germany Russia
20
Mexico
15
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Standard deviation is a statistical measure of performance fluctuations. Generally, the higher the standard deviation, the greater the expected volatility ofreturns. It is calculated using historical period returns around a mean and cannot be used to predict fund performance. Country returns are based on each countrys respective MSCI Index. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
33
International Equities
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70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1972
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (1/31/95 to 8/31/12) Current 11.7x Average 15.7x
2011
2012
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12.Price/Earnings Ratio (last 12 months) is a valuation ratio of a companys current share price compared to its actual per-share earnings over the last 12 months. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
34
International Equities
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100.0%
87.7%
International
U.S.
Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
1. Data based on MSCI World Index until the inception of MSCI All Country World Index on 12/31/87. Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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International Equities
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MSCI EAFE Index MSCI EAFE Index S&P 500 Index Russell 2000 Index MSCI World Index MSCI EM Index MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Small Cap Index 1.00 0.90 0.83 0.98 0.91 0.96
MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Small Cap Index 0.96 0.84 0.81 0.93 0.93 1.00
Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Correlation expresses the strength of relationship between distribution of returns of two sets of data. The correlation coefficient is always between +1 (perfect positive correlation) and 1 (perfect negative correlation). A perfect correlation occurs when the two series being compared behave in exactly the same manner. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
36
International Equities
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5%
4.88
4 3.43 3 2.45 2.49 2.21 2 1.25 1 1.29 1.44 2.99 2.59 2.69 3.11 3.19 3.55 3.66
3.89
3.96 4.01
ia
ina
ico
sia
U. Ar S. ge nt ina
Ko re a
sia
an
da
ca
ce
ly Br az il
dia
ke y
UK
EU
ra b
an
Tu r
Fra n
Ja p
na
Ru s
ne
ex
Ch
In
Ita
fri
ut hA
di A
do
Ca
rm
So u
In
Sa u
So
Ge
Source of chart data: Bloomberg (Argentina data only), FactSet (all other countries), 8/31/12. Dividend yields calculated using each countrys respective MSCI Index. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
37
International Equities
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Au
th
str
ali
39 40 41 4243
10-Year Treasury Yields Short-term Interest Rates Over Time U.S. Interest Rate Yield Curve Fixed Income Spreads Over Treasuries Sector Performance Yield and Duration of Various Fixed Income Sectors Senior Loans and High Yield Bonds Have Historically Outperformed in Rising Rate Environments Sector Correlations Risk/Return Profile of International Bonds Global Bond Indices Emerging Markets: High Yields and Comparatively Low Debt Levels
44 45 46 47 48 49 50
38
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20%
1970s
Nasdaq Opens First Day ofTrading Dow Closes Above 1,000 U.S. Abandons the Gold Standard OPEC Oil Shock & Nixon Resigns Eurodollar Market Crisis European Monetary System Created
1980s
Iran/Iraq War Begins Mexican Debt Crisis Reagan Tax Reform Black Monday Berlin Wall Falls
1990s
Japanese Banks Are Largest in the World Collapse of the Soviet Union WTC Bombed First Internet Stock Trade Dow Tops 5,000 Real-time Stock Tickers First Introduced on Cable Asian Financial Crisis Russian Bond Default Dow Tops 10,000
2000s
Tech Bubble Bursts 9/11 Attacks Enron & WorldCom Collapse U.S. Invades Iraq Hurricane Katrina Senate Confirms Ben Bernanke Subprime Crisis Begins World Economic Collapse Bear Stearns Collapse Lehman Bankruptcy GM Bankruptcy
2010s
Quantitative Easing 2 European Sovereign Debt Crisis Arab Spring U.S. Debt Rating Downgrade
15
10
5
1.55%
0 1970 1975
High: 10.72% Oct. 1979 Low: 5.53% Mar. 1971
1980
1985
High: 15.84% Sept. 1981 Low: 6.95% Aug. 1986
1990
1995
High: 9.04% Apr. 1990 Low: 4.44% Sept. 1998
2000
2005
2010
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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11 10 9 8
Mexican Peso Crisis Junk Bond Collapse Asian Financial Crisis Subprime Crisis Starts
Asian Tsunami
7 Rate (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Savings & Loan Crisis 87 Stock Market Crash Big Bang London Stock Exchange Treasury Bond Yields 5% for First Time Since 1967 DOW Crosses 5,000 DOW Crosses 10,000 Bear Stearns Collapses GM Bankruptcy Enron Collapses
Lehman Bankruptcy
2008
2010
2012
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other financial institutions, usually overnight. The London InterBank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is the interest rate that banks charge each other for loans (usually in eurodollars). The LIBOR is officially fixed once a day by a small group of large London banks, but the rate changes throughout the day. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
40
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8/31/11 Fed Funds 2-Year 10-Year 30-Year 0.25% 0.20 2.23 3.60
8/31/11 8/31/12
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12; logarithmic trend line; data shown are on-the-run treasury yields. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
41
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2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source of chart data: Barclays Capital Live, 8/31/12. Option-adjusted Spread (OAS) is the flat spread which has to be added to the treasury yield curve in a pricing model (that accounts for embedded options) to discount a security payment to match its market price. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2003 to 8/31/12 Average: 351 2008 High: 930 Current (as of 8/31/12): 354
2005
2006
2007
2008 2009
2010
2011
2012
Senior Loans3
2003 to 8/31/12 Average: 502 2008 High: 1,376 Current (as of 8/31/12): 596 Option-adjusted Spread (bps) 1,500 Discount Margin (bps)4 1,200 900 600 300 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 2003 2004 2005
Municipals1
2003 to 8/31/12 Average: 376 2009 High: 1,030 Current (as of 8/31/12): 420
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1. Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. 2. Source of chart data: JPMorgan Research, 8/31/12. 3. Source of chart data: Credit Suisse Research Online/Bond.hub, 8/31/12. 4. Loan spread is typically defined as the discount margin under the assumption of a three-year average life. Discount margin is the yield-to-refunding of the facility less the current 3-month LIBOR rate. Option-adjusted Spread (OAS) is the flat spread which has to be added to the treasury yield curve in a pricing model (that accounts for embedded options) to discount a security payment to match its market price. Past performance does not guarantee futureresults.
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2003
2004
Emerging Markets 22.97% Intl Bonds 12.14% High Yield 11.10% Senior Loans 5.60% I.G. Corporates 5.39% U.S. Aggregate 4.34% Treasuries 3.54%
2005
Emerging Markets 6.27% Senior Loans 5.69% Treasuries 2.79% U.S. Aggregate 2.43% High Yield 2.42% I.G. Corporates 1.68% Intl Bonds 9.20%
2006
Emerging Markets 15.22% High Yield 11.56% Senior Loans 7.33% Intl Bonds 6.94% U.S. Aggregate 4.33% I.G. Corporates 4.30% Treasuries 3.08%
2007
Emerging Markets 18.11% Intl Bonds 11.45% Treasuries 9.01% U.S. Aggregate 6.97% I.G. Corporates 4.56% High Yield 2.58% Senior Loans 1.88%
2008
Treasuries 13.74% Intl Bonds 10.11% U.S. Aggregate 5.24% I.G. Corporates 4.94% Emerging Markets 5.22% High Yield 26.55% Senior Loans 28.75%
2009
High Yield 58.17% Senior Loans 44.87% Emerging Markets 21.98% I.G. Corporates 18.68% U.S. Aggregate 5.93% Intl Bonds 4.39% Treasuries 3.57%
2010
Emerging Markets 15.68% High Yield 14.74% Senior Loans 9.97% I.G. Corporates 9.00% U.S. Aggregate 6.54% Treasuries 5.87% Intl Bonds 5.21%
2011
Treasuries 9.81% I.G. Corporates 8.15% U.S. Aggregate 7.84% High Yield 6.97% Intl Bonds 5.17% Senior Loans 1.82% Emerging Markets 1.75%
YTD as of 8/31/12 High Yield 10.68% Emerging Markets 9.26% I.G. Corporates 7.91% Senior Loans 6.65% U.S. Aggregate 3.85% Treasuries 2.40% Intl Bonds 2.04%
U.S. Aggregate 10.25% I.G. Corporates 10.12% High Yield 3.20% Senior Loans 1.12% Emerging Markets N/A
Worst
Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index JPMorgan Domestic High Yield Index JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified Bond Index
Citigroup Non-U.S. World Government Bond Index (USD Unhedged) Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Treasury Index Barclays Capital U.S. Credit/Corporate/Investment Grade Bond Index
Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Source of chart data: FactSet, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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10%
8
Senior Loans (0.25, 6.38) High Yield (3.66, 6.69)
6
Yield
4
Intl Bonds (7.32, 1.57)
4
Duration (years)
Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index JPMorgan Domestic High Yield Index Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Treasury Index
Barclays Capital U.S. Credit/Corporate/Investment Grade Bond Index Citigroup Non-U.S. World Government Bond Index (USD Unhedged) JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified Bond Index
Source of chart data: Barclays Capital Research, JPMorgan Research, Credit Suisse Research, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Duration is a weighted average term tomaturity of the securitys cash flows expressed in years. Duration helps measure a securitys and portfolios price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Senior Loans and High Yield Bonds Have Historically Outperformed in Rising Rate Environments
Comparatively low interest-rate sensitivity, or duration, has helped senior loans and high yield bonds outperform when interest rates have risen. Given that rising rates often accompany a generally strengthening economy, lower quality fixed income sectors have tended to benefit as default risk fears eased.
58.17
50
Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Index JPMorgan Domestic High Yield Index
41.47
40
30
20 10.70 6.81 6.24 3.25 1.84 9/981/00 5/036/06 12/0812/09 6.57 2.74 0.93 9.37 3.57
10
*The JPMorgan Domestic High Yield Index does not begin until 1/31/95.
Source of chart data: Bloomberg, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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BarCap U.S. Aggregate Govt Bond Index Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Government Bond Index Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Credit/Corporate/I.G. Index Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index JPMorgan Domestic High Yield Index Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index Citigroup Non-U.S. WGBI (USD Unhedged) United States Dollar Index 1.00 0.55 0.90 0.21 0.37 0.53 0.18
BarCap U.S. Aggregate Credit/Corp./ I.G. Index 0.55 1.00 0.83 0.58 0.37 0.54 0.43
BarCap U.S. JPMorgan Credit Suisse Citigroup Aggregate Bond Domestic High Leveraged Loan Non-U.S. WGBI United States Index Yield Index Index (USD Unhedged) Dollar Index 0.90 0.83 1.00 0.19 0.02 0.61 0.34 0.21 0.58 0.19 1.00 0.87 0.21 0.44 0.37 0.37 0.02 0.87 1.00 0.04 0.24 0.53 0.54 0.61 0.21 0.04 1.00 0.84 0.18 0.43 0.34 0.44 0.24 0.84 1.00
Source of chart data: Bloomberg, 8/31/12. Correlation expresses the strength of the relationship between distribution of returns of two sets of data. The correlation coefficient is always between +1 (perfect positive correlation) and 1 (perfect negative correlation). A perfect correlation occurs when the two series being compared behave in exactly the same manner. Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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12
Blended Fixed Income Portfolio (7.37, 7.71) Citigroup Non-U.S. WGBI (USD Unhedged) (8.56, 7.13)
6 Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond (3.60, 5.48) 4 2 4 6 Annualized Standard Deviation 8 10
Source of chart data: FactSet, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, 8/31/12. The performance shown represents the risk-return characteristics with annualized standard deviation (measure of risk) measured on the x-axis and average annualized return measured on the y-axis. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Chart compares the average annual total return over the 10-year period ended 8/31/12 and annualized standard deviation over the same period for a blended fixed income portfolio composed of an equal weight in Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, JPMorgan Domestic High Yield Index and Citigroup Non-U.S. WGBI (USD Unhedged) versus the individual indices themselves. Past performance does not guarantee futureresults.
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300 250
Index Level
JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Citigroup Non-USD WGBI (USD) Import Price Index
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002 Citigroup Non-U.S. WGBI (USD Unhedged) JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified Index JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Unhedged Index
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
21.99% 18.52% 12.14% 9.20% 13.65 N/A 22.21 16.92 11.62 22.97 10.25 6.27
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Emerging Markets: High Yields and Comparatively Low Debt Levels as of 8/31/12
Emerging market bonds generally continue to offer higher yields than most developed market debt, despite emerging markets often having more sustainable public debt levels. This mismatch is a legacy of decades past, when emerging market central banks were far less disciplined. Today, many of these central banks have established themselves as responsible and independent, while governments have increasingly resisted the temptation to run up unsustainable debt levels.
Public Debt as a Percentage of GDP (2011) vs. 10-Year Sovereign Yield (8/31/12)
15
Brazil 10 Yield (%) Turkey India South Africa Indonesia Mexico 5 Peru Italy Portugal
France Germany 0 UK U.S. Japan 150 Public Debt (% GDP) 200 250
50
100
Source of chart data: Bloomberg, 8/31/12 (10-Year Sovereign Yields). IMF World Economic Outlook, 12/31/11. (Debt as % of GDP. Note: Debt statistic used is Gross Debt, data is only available through 2011.) Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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52 53
Municipal Bond Yield Ratios Municipal Bond Sector Performance Municipal vs. Corporate Default Rates U.S. Municipal Bond Issuance Municipal Tax Collections
Municipal Bonds
54 55 56
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Yield Ratio
20022012 Avg.: 124 2008 High: 233 Current (as of 8/31/12): 214
150 100 50
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Yield Ratio
20022012 Avg.: 131 2008 High: 411 Current (as of 8/31/12): 140
200
150
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source of chart data: FactSet, Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch, 8/31/12. AAA and BBB are represented by Merrill Lynch Municipal indices which are derived from data points on the Merrill Lynch Municipal AAA Yield to Worst and Merrill Lynch Municipal BBB Yield to Worst, respectively. The yield ratio indicates the relationship between the Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index and the U.S. 10-Year Treasury. The option-adjusted spread (OAS) is the flat spread which has been added to the treasury yield curve in a pricing model (that accounts for embedded options) to discount a security payment to match its market price. Performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any Oppenheimer fund. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Municipal Bonds
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2003
BBB Baa Munis 7.63% 8.35%
2004
BBB Baa Munis 9.20% 8.48%
2005
Tobacco Baa Munis Munis 13.33% 8.33%
2006
BBB Baa Munis 7.66% 7.60%
2007
Munis AAA Munis 37 yrs 3.80% 5.28%
2008
Munis AAA Munis 37 yrs 5.92% 0.13%
2009
BBB Baa Munis 26.09% 30.33%
2010
2011
Munis BBB 712 Munis yrs Munis Airport 1222 Munis yrs 4.03% 3.67% 13.41% 13.57% Master Baa Munis Index 3.75% 2.25% Revenue Munis 37 Munis yrs 2.16% 3.35% Master AAA Munis Index 2.11% 2.25% Airport AAA Munis Munis 2.03% 1.34%
Munis Airport 1222 Munis yrs Munis Airport 1222 Munis yrs Munis Revenue 1222 Munis yrs Munis BBB1222 Munisyrs Munis Tobacco 1222 Munis yrs Munis Master 712 Index yrs Munis Master 712 Index yrs Munis Tobacco 1222 Munis yrs 11.12% 10.94% 6.57% 7.21% 5.54% 6.15% 8.88% 4.37% 5.33% 7.59% 3.29% 4.78% 3.95% 2.23% 17.47% 28.40% Revenue Master Index Munis 10.74% 10.78% Munis Master 37 Index yrs 10.74% 10.10% AAA BBB Munis 10.02% 9.66% Tobacco Baa Munis Munis 8.90% N/A Master AAA Munis Index 6.18% 6.40% Master Index 5.45% Airport Master Munis Index 3.94% 4.53% Revenue AAA Munis Munis 4.32% 3.13% Airport Master Munis Index 4.96% 5.50% Revenue AAA Munis Munis 5.17% 4.63% Revenue AAA Munis Munis 2.98% 3.84% Airport Master Munis Index 3.29% 2.36% Revenue AAA Munis Munis 5.73% 1.61% Airport Master Munis Index 11.95% 3.95% Airport Master Munis Index 14.45% 23.85% Munis Revenue 712 Munis yrs 16.32% 9.81% Master AAA Munis Index 14.45% 9.06%
Munis BBB 712 Munis yrs Munis Airport 1222 Munis yrs 12.48% 12.77% 5.16% 6.55% Revenue Baa Munis Munis 11.38% 11.84% Master Index 11.19% AAA Munis 9.12% 8.75% Revenue Master Index Munis 6.50% 4.17% Munis Master 712 Index yrs 6.00% 2.73% Tobacco AAA Munis Munis 2.60% 5.83% Munis AAA Munis 37 yrs 1.76% 3.83%
Munis Revenue 712 Munis yrs Munis Airport 712 Munis yrs 6.33% 5.63% 4.24% 4.86% Master AAA Munis Index 6.18% 5.37% Tobacco Munis 37 Munis yrs 4.22% N/A AAA Munis 4.72% 4.21% Tobacco Munis 37 Munis yrs 2.91% N/A
Munis Master 712 Index yrs Munis Master 712 Index yrs Munis Tobacco 1222 Munis yrs Munis Tobacco 1222 Munis yrs 3.94% 2.76% 4.96% 4.61% 0.22% 2.93% 17.60% 6.25% Munis AAA Munis 37 yrs 3.62% 1.27% Munis AAA Munis 37 yrs 4.71% 3.42% BBB Baa Munis 1.44% 2.73% BBB Baa Munis 22.38% 21.33%
Worst
Munis AAA Munis 37 yrs Munis Tobacco 1222 Munis yrs Tobacco Munis 37 Munis yrs 7.16% 9.02% 0.01% 1.80% 6.89% 7.37%
Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index Merrill Lynch AAA Municipal Index Merrill Lynch BBB Municipal Index Merrill Lynch Municipals Revenue Index Merrill Lynch Municipals Airport Index Merrill Lynch Municipals Tobacco Index
Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Municipal Bonds
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Municipal Default Rates, Average Cumulative Issuer-weighted, Moodys Rated Baa* Only, 19702011 Time Horizon (in years from date of issuance)
Rating Baa Municipals Baa Corporates Year 1 0.01% 0.18% Year 2 0.04% 0.50% Year 3 0.07% 0.91% Year 4 0.11% 1.38% Year 5 0.14% 1.89% Year 6 0.19% 2.42% Year 7 0.24% 2.92% Year 8 0.28% 3.44% Year 9 0.33% 4.03% Year 10 0.37% 4.71%
*Moodys Baa is equivalent to Standard & Poors rating of BBB. Baa/BBB is a medium-quality, investment-grade bond rating assigned to a corporation based on the issuers ability to pay interest and repay principal upon maturity. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Source of chart data: Moodys Investors Services. Data regarding default rates is from a study titled U.S. Municipal Bond Defaults and Recoveries, 1970-2011, dated March 2012. The above figures provide cumulative default rates for Moodys-rated Corporate and Municipal debt rated Baa. For example, obligations in the Baa Municipal category had a default rate of 0.01% within one year of the initial rating, 0.04% within two years, etc.
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Municipal Bonds
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$500 400 79.7 51.3 79.2 258.4 221.2 75.9 108.6 274.3 208.2 261.3 279.8 51.1 90.2 146.4 72.8 55.0 98.5
61.9 86.5
USD Billions
46.8 110.6
95.4
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
YTD as of 8/31/12
% of Total Issuance
2003 New Money Refunding 69% 25 2004 64% 25 2005 54% 32 2006 66% 20 2007 64% 18 2008 53% 28 2009 64% 21 2010 65% 23 2011 51% 31 YTD as of 8/31/12 38% 44
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Municipal Bonds
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Municipal Bonds
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58 Alternative Asset Class Returns 59 Alternatives May Help Protect Purchasing Power
60 Correlation of Alternative Asset Classes 61 REITs Have Historically Provided Solid Yields 62 Ratio of Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index to Gold Price 63 Components of the S&P GSCI Index 64 Global Currencies
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2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
YTD as of 8/31/12
Worst
CPI* 2.48%
CPI 2.04%
CPI 3.34%
CPI 3.44%
CPI 2.52%
CPI 4.15%
CPI 0.08%
CPI 2.70%
CPI 1.50%
CPI 2.97%
CPI 1.41%
Commodities: S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Gold: Dollar spot price of one troy ounce REITs: FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT Index Stocks: S&P 500 Index Bonds: Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss. *CPI is the year-over-year percent change as of 8/31/12 which represents latest available data. Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Gold
S&P 500 Index
Source of chart data: OppenheimerFunds Proprietary Research, 8/31/12. Returns are nominal and do not include the impact of inflation on a portfolio. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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S&P 500 Index S&P 500 Index Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index Consumer Price Index S&P GSCI GoldContinuous Contract FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT Index U.S. Dollar Index 1.00 0.02 0.05 0.36 0.07 0.74 0.48
BarCap U.S. Agg. Index 0.02 1.00 0.22 0.01 0.31 0.17 0.34
Consumer Price Index 0.05 0.22 1.00 0.38 0.06 0.09 0.15
FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT Index 0.74 0.17 0.09 0.25 0.14 1.00 0.44
U.S. Dollar Index 0.48 0.34 0.15 0.48 0.49 0.44 1.00
Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Source of chart data: Bloomberg, 7/31/12. Correlation expresses the strength of relationship between distribution of returns of two sets of data. The correlation coefficient is always between +1 (perfect positive correlation) and 1 (perfect negative correlation). A perfect correlation occurs when the two series being compared behave in exactly the same manner. Gold is represented by the dollar spot price of one troy ounce. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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12% 4.96 10
Income Price
6.31
6.40
0.67 5.73
2.12
0 FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT Index S&P 500 Index Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
Source of chart data: Factset, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ratio of Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU) to Gold Price : December 1983 to August 2012
0.40
0.35
0.30
Average = 0.23
XAU/Gold
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source of chart data: Bloomberg, 8/31/12. Gold is represented by the dollar spot price of one troy ounce. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Pastperformance does not guarantee future results.
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Precious Metals 3%
Agriculture 17%
Source of chart data: Standard & Poors, FactSet, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Pastperformance does not guarantee future results.
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120
Index Level
100
80
60
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002 U.S. Dollar Index Euro/USD GBP/USD JPY/USD BRL/USD 12.70% 17.86 10.62 10.44 34.73
YTD as of 8/31/12
Source of chart data: FactSet, 8/31/12. Index definitions can be found on pages 34. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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This presentation has been filed as a complete presentation and is designed to be presented in its entirety in the order shown. The views contained in the preceding document represent the opinions of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. as of 9/30/12, are subject to change based on subsequent developments, are not intended as investment advice, and are not intended to predict or depict the performance of any Oppenheimer fund. Consult your financial advisor. Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Risks to Consider: Investments in securities of growth, small-cap and mid-cap companies may be especially volatile. Value investing involves the risk that undervalued securities may not appreciate as anticipated. There is no guarantee that the issuers of stocks held by mutual funds will declare dividends in the future, or that if dividends are declared, they will remain at their current levels or increase over time. Investing in foreign securities involves additional expenses and special risks, such as currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and political and economic factors. Investments in emerging and developing markets may be especially volatile. Fixed income investing involves credit risk and interest rate risk (when interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall). Below-investment-grade (high yield or junk) bonds are more at risk of default and are subject to liquidity risk. Asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities are also subject to prepayment risk. Senior loans are typically lower rated (more at risk of default) and may be illiquid investments (which may not have a ready market). A portion of a municipal bond funds distributions may be taxable and may increase taxes for investors subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Capital gains distributions are taxable as capital gains. Investing in the commodity markets involves potentially higher volatility and greater risk of loss of principal than traditional equity or debt securities. Commodity-linked investments are considered speculative and have substantial risks, including the risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value. Investing in a limited number of sectors, such as gold, oil and real estate, can increase volatility and exposure to issues affecting that sector. Investments in securities of real estate and small-cap companies may be especially volatile. Because they do not have an active trading market, shares of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) may be illiquid. The lack of an active trading market may make it difficult to value or sell shares of REITs promptly at an acceptable price. Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss.
Before investing in any of the Oppenheimer funds, investors should carefully consider a funds investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses contain this and other information about the funds, and may be obtained by asking your financial advisor, visiting oppenheimerfunds.com or calling 1.800.CALL OPP (225.5677). Read prospectuses and summary prospectuses carefully before investing.
Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. Two World Financial Center, 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008 2012 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved.
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