Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| March 26, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| March 26, 2013 Market Highlights (% change)
as on March 25, 2013 Prev. day -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -2.5 1.5 0.2 1.7 1.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.5 0.0 WoW -3.5 -3.2 0.0 0.0 -1.8 0.5 2.7 -0.1 1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.9 0.4 MoM -3.8 -3.4 3.9 4.3 -1.2 -1.6 2.1 8.5 2.4 -0.7 -0.5 -2.7 -0.2 YoY 8.7 2.1 10.5 11.1 -5.1 -0.1 -12.3 25.3 -11.3 -2.3 -12.0 -8.9 0.3

Highlights
US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.6 percent in yesterday s trade. BBA Mortgage Approvals was at 30,500 in the month of February. The Euro declined by 1 percent in yesterdays trading session. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of the concerns that Cyprus banks restructuring plan may be used as a model for the other European nation which can endanger bondholders and depositors.
NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA

Last 5633.9 18681.4 14447.75 1551.7 15644.4 1977.7 58497.8 12546.5 94.81 1604.60 2878.50 7632.00 102.09

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.6 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the later part of the day which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, concerns over the safety of financial asset of Cyprus, after nations tax plan on the bank deposit also supported an upside in the currency. Further, US equities also ended on a negative note which acted as a favorable factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 83.11 and closed at 83.0 on Monday.

NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of upbeat global market sentiments after Cyprus bailout deal coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of more foreign inflows after ease in investor rules in debt market also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of uncertainty in the countrys political structure on account of expectations of Samajwadi Party (SP) may withdraw its support from the government along with weakness in the domestic markets. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day high of 54.05 and closed at 54.29 against dollar on Monday. For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7,750.70 crores ($1,421.91 million) as on 25th March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.54,248.80 crores ($10,056.50 million) till 22 March 2013. Outlook

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 83.00 54.29 54.10 54.10 Prev. day 0.6 0.1 -0.48 -0.49

as on March 25, 2013 WoW 0.5 -0.4 -0.33 -0.34 MoM 1.5 -0.6 0.39 0.40 YoY 4.5 -5.7 5.54 5.55

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, expectations that Samajwadi Party (SP) may withdraw its support from the UPA government will exert further downside pressure on the currency.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for March 26, 2013 Support 54.45/54.30 Resistance 54.75/54.90

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| March 26, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of the worries over safety of financial asset in Cyprus increased as nation bailout plan to tax bank depositors. Further weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX added downside pressure. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2829 and closed at 1.2851 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate as the worries over safety of financial asset in Cyprus increased. Further, investors are worried that the Cyprus bank restructuring may be used as a model for other European nations. Additionally, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX will add downside pressure. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 70.70/70.50 71.20/71.50 valid for March 26, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2851 69.84 70.5 70.5 Prev. day -1.0 0.9 0.06 0.06

as on March 25, 2013 WoW -0.8 0.4 0.27 0.26 MoM -1.6 1.9 -1.43 -1.43 YoY -3.2 4.56 4.56

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.37 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, unfavorable economic data from UK added downside pressure. British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals was at 30,500 in February as against a rise of 32,000 in January. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5141 and closed at 1.5173 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note in todays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. However, expectation of favorable realized sales data from the country may cushion sharp decline in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 26, 2013 Support 82.80/82.60 Resistance 83.10/83.30

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5173 82.225 82.47 Prev. day -0.37 -0.654 -0.22

as on March 25, 2013

WoW 0.5 0.72 0.47

MoM 0.1 0.65 1.02

YoY -4.4 1.52 1.87

82.46

-0.21

0.46

0.98

1.85

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| March 26, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) was at 0.1 percent in February as against a decline of 0.2 percent in January. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 93.53 and closed at 94.15 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, favorable corporate price index data will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 26, 2013 Support 57.50/57.30 Resistance 57.90/58.10
Source: Telequote

as on March 25, 2013 Last 94.15 0.5764 57.14 57.12 Prev day -0.4 0.24 -0.36 -0.40 WoW -1.1 1.64 -0.05 -0.12 MoM 2.6 -1.15 -0.54 -0.62 YoY 14.4 -7.06 -7.50 -7.54

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on March 26, 2013

Indicator CBI Realized Sales Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence New Home Sales Country UK US US US US US Time (IST) 4:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 12 0.7% 3.8% 7.9% 69.3 426K Previous 8 2.3% -4.9% 6.8% 69.6 437K Impact Medium High Medium Medium High High

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