DAILY I FOREX REPORT

3RD APRIL 2013

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HEADLINES

USD to Consolidate Further Ahead of NFPs- AUD to Face RBA Euro, Pound At Risk As Soft PMIs Set The Stage For ECB And BOE

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.2880 tgs 1.2900/1.2920 sl 1.2850

Australian Dollar Higher As RBA Hold Rates, Less Dovish

THE TAKEAWAY: Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing revised slightly higher to 46.8 -> Markit says manufacturing dragging on the economy -> Euro doesnt rise with improved release The Euro-zone Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing in March was revised slightly higher according to a final release by Markit. However, the PMI is still down from an 11-month high set in January, and the PMI has continued to indicate a declining manufacturing sector since July of 2011. The PMI for Manufacturing was revised to 46.8 from a previous estimate of 46.6, but is down from 47.9 in February. The German PMI for manufacturing declined back below the 50.0 neutral level in March, but the final estimate was revised 0.1 higher to 49.0. The France manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 44.0, and the Italy index disappointed expectations today at 44.5 for March, setting a 7-month low. Manufacturing production contracted at the fastest pace year to date, as companies saw decreases in new business inflows, according to Markit. New export orders resumed a decline in March on lower demand from intra-Euro-zone trade. Job losses were reported in the sector for the fourteenth straight month. +91 9752199966

SELL USDJPY BELOW 92.55 tgt 92.35/92.15 SL 92.85

SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5180 Tgt 1.5160/1.5140 SL 1.5200

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2848 HIGH: 1.2878 LOW: 1.2825 CLOSE: 1.2848

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND : BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>-.0005(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 48(BULLISH SIGNAL)

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 93.18 HIGH: 93.35 LOW: 92.57 CLOSE: 93.24

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => -0.07( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>50(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLYGBPUSD GBPUSD CHART HOURLY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5221 HIGH: 1.5258 LOW: 1.5181 CLOSE: 1.5193

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 40(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8440 HIGH: 0.8459 LOW: 0.8425 CLOSE: 0.8452

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>55(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.7280 HIGH: 82.8000 LOW: 82.4930 CLOSE: 82.0910

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date
Sun Mar 31

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

23:50

JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (1Q) JPY Tankan NonManufacturing Outlook (1Q) JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q) JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (1Q) JPY Tankan NonManufacturing Index (1Q) JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB) CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAR) CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAR) CNY Leading Index (FEB) JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR) USD Markit US PMI Final (MAR) USD ISM Manufacturing (MAR) USD Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB) USD ISM Prices Paid (MAR) AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR) AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAR) GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR) JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAR) NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAR)

High

-1

-10

23:50

High

11

23:50

Medium

-2.0%

5.0%

6.8%

23:50

Medium

-8

-7

-12

23:50

Medium

23:50
Mon Apr 1

Low

1.42%

1.34%

01:00

High

50.9

51.2

50.1

01:45

Medium

51.6

51.6

50.4

04:39

Low

100.23

100.50

05:00

Low

-15.6%

-12.2%

12:58

Low

54.6

55.0

54.9

14:00

High

51.3

54.0

54.2

14:00

Medium

1.2%

1.0%

-2.1%

14:00

Medium

54.5

60.0

61.5

22:30

Medium

44.4

45.6

23:00

Low

1.3%

0.3%

23:01

Low

20

13

23:50
Tue Apr 2

Low

19.8%

15.0%

00:00

Low

7.4%

1.1%

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (FEB) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (APR 2) AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAR) AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (MAR) CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (MAR) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F) EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB P) GBP Mortgage Approvals (FEB) GBP Net Consumer Credit (FEB) GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR) GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (FEB) GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB) GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (FEB) EUR ECB's Kranjec Presents Slovenia Economy Outlook, Banks EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR P)

Medium

-0.7%

-0.2%

0.1%

03:30

High

3.00%

3.00%

3.00%

05:30

Low

-7.5%

-6.5%

05:30

Low

87.9

87.9

07:30

Medium

48.3

50.4

50.8

07:45

Low

44.5

45.3

45.8

07:50

Low

44.0

43.9

43.9

07:55

Medium

49.0

48.9

48.9

08:00

Medium

46.8

46.6

46.6

08:00

Medium

11.6%

11.8%

11.7%

08:30

Medium

51.7K

53.7K

54.2K

08:30

Medium

0.6B

0.4B

0.5B

08:30

Medium

0.9B

0.4B

0.3B

08:30

Medium

48.3

48.7

47.9

08:30

Low

3.1%

5.0%

5.8%

08:30

Low

-0.5%

0.9%

08:30

Low

0.5%

-0.8%

09:00

Medium

12.0%

12.0%

12.0%

10:00

Low

12:00

High

1.7%

1.8%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR P) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR P) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR P) USD ISM New York (MAR) USD Factory Orders (FEB) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (APR) (APR) EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Washington DC USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in North Dakota USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks in Alabama USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAR) USD Total Vehicle Sales (MAR) GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR) USD Fed's Evans, Lacker Speak on Monetary Policy in Richmond AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAR) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

High

1.3%

1.5%

12:00

Medium

0.3%

0.8%

12:00

Medium

0.4%

0.6%

13:45

Low

58.8

14:00

Medium

2.9%

-2.0%

14:00

Low

45.5

42.2

15:20

Low

17:00

Low

17:30

Low

21:00

Low

12.04M

11.99M

21:00

Low

15.30M

15.33M

23:01

Low

1.10%

23:30

Low

Wed Apr 3

00:00

Medium

4.2%

Low

1.1%

1.9%

Low

0.2%

0.5%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (FEB) CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (MAR) CNY HSBC Services PMI (MAR) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-1000M

-1057M

01:00

Medium

54.5

01:45

Medium

52.1

08:30

Medium

48.0

46.8

09:00

Medium

1.6%

1.8%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 29) USD ADP Employment Change (MAR) USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (MAR) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 29) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 29) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 29) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 29) USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Los Angeles USD Fed's Bullard to Introduce Lecture in St. Louis AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (MAR) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29) JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (APR 4)

Low

7.7%

12:15

Medium

200K

198K

14:00

Medium

55.6

56

14:30

Low

439K

14:30

Low

2250K

3256K

14:30

Low

-750K

-4513K

14:30

Low

-1000K

-1596K

19:30

Low

21:00

Low

22:30

Medium

48.5

23:50

Low

-975.2B

23:50

Low

-267.6B

23:50

Low

-490.5B

23:50
Thu Apr 4

Low

-640.2B

High

0.10%

0.10%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (FEB) AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (FEB) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Medium

14.3%

9.9%

00:30

Medium

0.3%

0.9%

00:30

Low

2.5%

-2.4%

07:45

Low

43.5

43.6

07:50

Low

41.9

41.9

07:55

Medium

51.6

51.6

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (APR) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (APR 4) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR) USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (APR) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 4) EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 4) USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 30) USD Continuing Claims (MAR 23) USD Fed's Evans, Lockhart Speak on Monetary Policy in Ohio USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 29) USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Oklahoma USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in Washington JPY Official Reserve Assets (MAR) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

46.5

46.5

08:00

Medium

46.5

46.5

08:30

Medium

51.5

51.8

08:30

Low

-$1333M

09:00

Medium

1.4%

1.9%

09:00

Low

0.2%

0.6%

11:00

High

375B

375B

11:00

High

0.50%

0.50%

11:30

Low

7.0%

11:30

Low

47.1

11:45

High

0.75%

0.75%

11:45

Medium

0.00%

0.00%

12:30

Medium

353K

357K

12:30

Low

3065K

3050K

12:45

Low

14:30

Low

-95

16:30

Low

21:00

Low

23:50
Fri Apr 5

Low

$1258.8B

Low

7.9%

05:00

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for April (Table)

Medium

05:00

JPY Leading Index (FEB P) JPY Coincident Index (FEB P) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAR) EUR Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (FEB) CAD Net Change in Employment (MAR) CAD Unemployment Rate (MAR) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (MAR) USD Unemployment Rate (MAR) CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAR) USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (MoM) (MAR) USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (YoY) (MAR) USD Change in Household Employment (MAR) USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAR) USD Trade Balance (FEB) USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAR) USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAR) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (FEB) CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

97.3

95

05:00

Low

91.9

91.6

07:00

Low

427.0B

430.0B

08:00

Medium

3.7%

09:00

High

-1.2%

-1.3%

09:00

Medium

-0.4%

1.2%

10:00

Medium

-1.5%

-2.5%

10:00

Low

1.1%

-2.5%

12:30

High

5.0K

50.7K

12:30

High

7.0%

7.0%

12:30

High

199K

236K

12:30

High

7.7%

7.7%

12:30

Medium

33.6

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

Medium

2.0%

2.1%

12:30

Medium

170

12:30

Medium

203K

246K

12:30

Medium

-$44.6B

-$44.4B

12:30

Medium

-15K

12:30

Medium

14.3%

12:30

Low

0.10B

-0.24B

12:30

Low

17.2

12:30

CAD Participation Rate (MAR)

Low

66.7

66.7

12:30

USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAR) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (MAR) USD Consumer Credit (FEB)

Low

34.5

34.5

12:30

Low

10K

14K

14:00

Medium

52.2

51.1

19:00

Medium

$15.000B

$16.151B

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