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Compositionofoutput(accounting) AggregateDemand Equilibrium ilib i ParadoxofThrift
31TheCompositionofGDP
Y C + I +G+ X IM
Table 3-1
The Composition of U.S. GDP, 2006 Billions of dollars GDP (Y) 1 2 Consumption (C) Investment (I) N Nonresidential id ti l Residential 3 4 Government spending (G) Net exports Exports (X) Imports (IM) 5 Inventory investment 49
Source: Survey of Current Business, April 2007, Table 1-1-5. 3 of32
Percent of GDP 100 0 100.0 70.0 16.3 1 396 1,396 767 10 5 10.5 5.8 19.0 5.8 1,466 2,229 0 11.0 16.8
2,528 763
31TheCompositionofGDP
Consumption(C)referstothegoodsandservices purchasedbyconsumers. Investment(I),sometimescalledfixedinvestment,is thepurchaseofcapitalgoods goods.Itisthesumof nonresidentialinvestment andresidential investment. GovernmentSpending p g(G) referstothep purchasesof goodsandservicesbythefederal,state,andlocal governments.Itdoesnotincludegovernment transfers,norinterestpaymentsonthegovernment 4 of32 debt.
31TheCompositionofGDP
Imports(IM) arethepurchasesofforeign goodsandservicesbyconsumers,business firms,andtheU.S.government. Exports(X) arethepurchasesofU.S.goods andservicesbyforeigners foreigners.
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31TheCompositionofGDP
Net exports (X IM) is the difference between exports and imports, also called the trade balance. Exports = imports trade balance
Exports > imports trade surplus E Exports t < imports i t trade t d deficit d fi it
Inventory investment is the difference between production and sales.
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32TheDemandforGoods
We now move from accounting to modeling. The total (or aggregate) aggregate ) demand for goods is written as:
Z C + I + G + X IM
Where C, Wh C I I, G G, X X, IM are now all ll planned l d amounts of expenditures. To determine Z, some simplifications must be made:
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32TheDemandforGoods
Assume that all firms produce the same good, which can then be used by consumers for consumption, by firms for investment, or by the government. Assume that firms are willing to supply any amount of the good at a given price, P, and demand in that market market. Assume that the economy is closed, then both exports and imports are zero. Under the assumption that the economy is closed, X = IM = 0, then:
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Z C+ I + G
32TheDemandforGoods
Consumption (C)
Disposable income income, (YD), ) is the income that remains once consumers have paid taxes and received transfers from the government. g
C = C(YD )
(+ )
The function C(YD) is called the consumption function. It is a behavioral equation, that is, is it captures the behavior of consumers.
C = c0 + c1YD
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32TheDemandforGoods
Consumption (C)
This function has two parameters, c0 and c1: c1 is called the (marginal) propensity to consume, or the effect of an additional dollar of disposable income on consumption. c0 is the intercept of the consumption function. Disposable income is given by:
YD Y T
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32TheDemandforGoods
Consumption (C)
Fi Figure 3-1 Consumption and Disposable Income Consumption increases with disposable income but less than one for one.
C = C(YD ) YD Y T C = c0 + c1 (Y T )
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32TheDemandforGoods
Investment (I )
Variables that depend p on other variables within the model are called endogenous. Variables that are not explain within the model are called exogenous. g Investment here is taken as given, or treated as an exogenous variable:
I = b0
Government spending, G, together with taxes, T, describes fiscal policythe choice of t taxes and d spending di b by th the government. t
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32TheDemandforGoods
Textbook assumes both G and T are also exogenous. In the derivation, I take only G as exogenous , with T partly exogenous Governments do not behave with the same regularity as consumers or firms. Macroeconomists M i t must t think thi k about b t the th implications of alternative spending and tax decisions of the government government.
G = GO0
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T = t 0 + t1Y
33TheDeterminationofEquilibrium Output
Assuming Assuming that exports and imports are both zero, the demand for goods is the sum of consumption, investment, and government spending:
Z C + I +G
Then:
33TheDeterminationofEquilibrium Output
Equilibrium in the goods market requires that production, d ti Y, be b equal lt to th the d demand df for goods, d Z:
Y= Z
The equilibrium condition is that that, production, production Y, be equal to demand. Demand, Z, in turn depends p on income, Y, which itself is equal q to production. . Then:
33TheDeterminationofEquilibrium Output
Macroeconomists always use these th three tools: t l 1. Algebra to make sure that the logic is correct 2. Graphs to build the intuition 3. Words to explain the results
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Using Algebra
33TheDeterminationofEquilibrium p Output
Rewrite the equilibrium equation:
Y0 = 0
0
45
Slope = c1(1-t1)
Y0
The Effects of an Increase in A t Autonomous Spending on Output Set An increase in autonomous spending has a more than one- for-one effect on equilibrium output.
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Y0 = 0
1 = [1 c1 (1 t1 )]
0 c0 c1 (t 0 ) + b0 + GOo
Y =
Y = [a 0 c1 t 0 + b0 + GO]
Y = GO
33TheDeterminationofEquilibrium O t t Output
Using Words
To summarize: An increase in demand leads to an increase in production d ti and d a corresponding di i increase i in income. The end result is an increase in output that is larger than the initial shift in demand, by a factor equal to the multiplier. To estimate the value of the multiplier, p , and more generally, to estimate behavioral equations and their parameters, economists use econometricsa set of statistical methods used in economics. 25 of32
34InvestmentEqualsSaving:An AlternativeWayofThinking
S YD C Y T C
Y C + I +G
Y T C I + G T
S I + G T
I S + (T G )
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3-4 Investment Equals Saving: An Alternative Way of Thinking about Goods-Market Equilibrium
I = S + (T G )
The equation above states that equilibrium in the goods d market k t requires i th that t investment i t t equals l savingthe sum of private plus public saving. This equilibrium condition for the goods market is called the IS relation. What firms want to invest must be equal to what people and the government want to save save.
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Consumption and saving decisions are one and the same. S= YTC
InvestmentEqualsSaving:An AlternativeWayofThinking
S = Y T c0 c1 (Y T ) S = c0 + (1 c1 )(Y T )
The term (1c1) is called the propensity to save. In equilibrium I = c0 + (1 c1 )(Y T ) + (T G ) Rearranging terms, we get the same result as before: 1
Y=
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1 c1
[c0 + I + G c1T ]
S Y C = Y (c0 + c1Y ) S = Y c0 c1 Y = c0 + (1 c1 )Y
Y = c 0
1 = [1 c1 ]
v S = c0 +(1c1)c0
S = c0 + c0 = 0
35IstheGovernmentOmnipotent? AWarning W i
Changing government spending or taxes is not always easy. The responses p of consumption, p , investment, , imports, etc, are hard to assess with much certainty. Anticipations are likely to matter. Achieving a given level of output can come with unpleasant side effects. Budget deficits and public debt may have adverse implications in the long run.
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