Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 10

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

Financial Indicators

March 28, 1989

ChM 1

The Yield Curve

Spread Between30-year T-Bond Yield and Federal Funds Rate'

1957

T

1961

1965

1969

Selected Yield Curves

r

-

-I-

-

, ,'*.

.*

.

--.

-. ----

T

P

T

1973

March23,1989

----_ ----

1977

P

Percantage Polnts

1

6

Percentage Polnts

10

9.6

9.6

9.4

ChU2

Experimental Price Index for 21 Commodities(Week1y)

ALL COMMODITIES

index. i88ciai.i~

-

 

-

180

-

 

-

180

-

 

-

140

ALLCOMMODITIES EX. FOOD and CRUDE OIL

-

-

-

-

I

I

I

I

I

I

1982

1983

1984

1985

1956

1987

Index. i086 ai-iw

- 180

-

180

-

-

-

140

120

100

80

~i~iirir~iiJ

1088

Chat 3

Stock Prices and the Exchange Value of the Dollar

Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index

I

L

0-10 Index

lo68

1oi

1972

T

1974

D

1976

1978

T

lB80

P

1

P

W82

1984

I

1982

1984

Index Level

-400

"

1988

1988

Index Level

 

160

140

120

100

60

60

1088

1088

Char( 4 Short-Term Real Interest Rates 10 5 + - 0 5 I 1 I
Char( 4
Short-Term Real Interest Rates
10
5
+
- 0
5
I 1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
10
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1-year T-Bill Minus 1-year Inflation Expectations (Michigan)
Percent
10
5
+
- 0
11977 1978
1979
lB80
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
o:
-
-
10
-
T-
+
- 0

hurS

xnflation Lrp.ct.tionr

(Hoey Survey)

Survey

Next

rirst

Second

10-year

Date

12 months

5 years

5 years

averwe

-----------a~~al

rare, percent-------------------

1986: Q3

3.5

4.8

5.5

5.1

 

Q4

3.6

4.1

5.5

5.1

I901: January

3.8

4.9

5.4

5.1

 

Umrch

4.0

5.2

5.8

5.5

UY

4.1

5.3

5.4

5.3

June

4.6

5.2

5.3

5.3

August

4.9

5.4

5.1

5.5

September

4.1

5.3

5.6

5.4

Nwanber

4.1

5.0

5.3

5.1

1988 :

January

4.5

5.2

5.5

5.3

Umrch

4.3

5.0

5.3

5.2

April

4.1

5.1

5.0

5.1

June

5.1

5.1

4.9

5.0

August

5.3

5.1

4.8

4.9

October

4.9

4.1

4.9

4.8

November

4.8

4.6

4.1

4.1

December

5.0

4.6

4.6

4.6

19E9:

Februarv

5.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

 

LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST RATE

10-year Treasury bondyield less 10-year 'rageInflationexpectation (Hoey survey).

 

Percent

-

e

I

1978

I

I

1980

I

I

1982

I

I

1984

I

I

1986

-

11111111111111111

1gee

+-DawIummfnont*.*dyn***umwtn~lnldon~n.

Chrt S

Nominal and Real Corporate Bond Rates

Percent

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

I

I

I

1

I

Change in inflation-4.327 - 0.775(real rate)

T-statistics

(5.2)

(-5.5)

I

02 -3

0

1

4

'i 2 -.747, Durbin-Watson -2.32, Standard Error -0.81

M2

c

T

r T

1964 1969

1864

1988

Chw 8

Growth of M2 and M3

T

I

II

T

L1

1

1

1874

1

1

Perwnt ch.nge horn Four OuMen Earller

- 18

1

1970

PwceM Change from Four OuMen Earller

T

P

T

1974

1879

118

Chart 9

Inflation Indicator Based on M2

Chart 9 Inflation Indicator Based on M2 r _- 1959 - Current price level (P) --

r

_-

1959

-Current price level (P)

---Long-run

given current M2 (P.)

equilibriumprice level

I Inflation'

1964

1969

//

Lu

J

u11:

ONP Implicit deflator over the previous four quarters.

/.- .'

11111

Ratio scale

150

100

50

Percent

1

12