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Technical terms
Fortunately, we experienced an extremely wet spring and early summer, allowing us to lift the restrictions in June. It is now easy to suggest that there was never a serious risk to supply. However, studies of past weather conditions show this was not case. Analysis of historical rainfall patterns shows there was a probability of just three per cent that we would receive the heavy rainfall we did 165 per cent of the average for the April-to-October period. But it would have been just as probable three per cent again that we received 60 per cent or less of average rainfall during those six months.
Abstraction is the removal of water from any source, either permanently or temporarily. Resilience refers to the ability of our systems to maintain supplies under extreme circumstances, such as extended droughts.
2010
2011
2012
Figure 5 Thames catchment rainfall January 2010 to December 2012 Looking ahead, without intervention, we believe the current level of resilience is not sufficient for the future. Drought in our region has the potential to cause significant environmental damage due to our reliance upon environmentally sensitive water sources, such as chalk streams in the Kennet Valley. Londons water supply system was not designed to cope with weather conditions outside those previously experienced and projections suggest the climate is changing, with extended droughts increasingly frequent. In addition, as the following sections will show, population growth is forecast to continue and put additional pressure on resources.