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Welcome to the Pulse Q4 2012 edition for Ambient. We hope you find it useful.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments at EU.Marketing@SymphonyIRI.com

SymphonyIRI
Ambient

Pulse

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

About the Report


This Ambient report is one of 10 super category reports designed to show high-level comparison and analysis for retail markets across major countries in Europe. This report contains data gathered from around Europe. This market was split into the following categories: Shelf Stable Vegetables, Shelf Stable Fruits, Shelf Stable Meat, Shelf Stable Fish, Sweet & Savoury Biscuits, Crisps & Snacks, Long Life Milk & Dairy Products, Bread/Baked Products, Baking Ingredients, Sweet Spreads & Sauces, Savoury Spreads, Dry Soups, Wet Soups, Rice, Pasta & Noodles, Shelf Stable Ready Meals, Shelf Stable Desserts, Sugar & Sweeteners, Seasoning, Condiments, Sauces/Mixes, Oil/Vinegar, Dried Fruits and Dried Beans & Vegetables. The report highlights key metrics such as total sales figures, market trends, category shares, winners and losers for Europe and for individual countries. The data has been sourced from SymphonyIRI Group retail databases and Eurostat the statistical branch of administration for the European Commission. The countries included in the report are: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the UK. The market channels used for each country in this report are as follows:

Country UK ES DE NL IT FR

Channels used Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Drugstores and Impulse Outlets Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Hard Discounters, Drugstores and includes the Canary Islands Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Hard Discounters and Drugstores Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Hard Discounters and Drugstores Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Small Self Service, Hard Discounters and Drugstores Hypermarkets and Supermarkets

For analytical purposes the data sourced from available retail databases has been consolidated to provide consistent results. However, for some countries it has not been possible to source data pertaining to certain categories. When this has occurred it has been documented in the Notes section found at the end of the report.

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

In the Radar

As the economic outlook is not improving, inflation is driving shoppers into cheaper alternatives. In the ambient categories promotions are getting more important and Own Label is winning market share.
Ronald Laureijsen Business Insights Director, SymphonyIRI Group Contact: ronald.laureijsen@SymphonyIRI.com Tel : +31 418 570931

Economic figures influencing consumer behavior


Average 12 Months Inflation Rate

Population in Millions

Unemployment (%)

GDP in Millions ()

January 2011 France

January 2012

Dec 2011

Dec 2012

Dec. 2011

Average 2012

2011 (Estimate)

2012 (Estimate) 2,029,877

65.0

65.3

9.7

10.2

+2.3

+2.2

1,987,699

Germany

81.7

81.8

5.9

5.5

+2.5

+2.1

2,567,000

2,643,900

Italy Netherlands

60.6 16.6

60.8 16.7

8.4 4.4

10.7 5.3

+2.9 +2.5

+3.3 +2.8

1,586,209 607,435

1,565,916 601,086

Spain United Kingdom

46.1

46.1

21.6

25.0

+3.1

+2.4

1,074,940

1,048,490

62.4

62.9

8.4

8.0

+4.4

+2.8

1,747,315

1,898,520

Source Eurostats, December 2012

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Global Trends
Value sales and growth and decline in the last year
Value Sales in Millions ()

+3.3% +3.4%

Total EU DE UK

97,986 23,556 21,130* 18,377 17,822 12,784 4,317

+1.5%

IT FR ES NL

+2.8%

*based on an exchange rate of 1.150 to the pound


Positive Trend Static Trend

+3.4% +1.8%

Negative Trend

TOTAL EUROPE +2.6%

Value sales for the last six quarters


Millions 30,000

25,000 4,462 20,000 4,299 6,054 5,579 15,000 4,897 1,104 3,176 4,605 1,080 3,191 4,502 1,071 3,179 4,361 1,021 3,130 4,909 1,145 3,283 4,453 4,554 4,439 4,375

France Germany

5,894

6,252 5,784 5,625

Italy Netherlands Spain UK

4,313 10,000 1,005 3,029 5,000 4,960 0


2-Oct-11

5,379

5,429

5,113

5,081

5,507

1-Jan-12

2-Apr-12

1-Jul-12

1-Oct-12

30-Dec-12

Period Ending

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Europe
Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year
16,000 14,000
Millions Euros

13,965 11,651 8,805 7,638 6,912 5,178 4,579 4,056 3,968.97 3,754.88

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

Top 10
Bread/Baked Products Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Shelf Stable Vegetables Oil/Vinegar Cereals Crisps and Snacks Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Shelf Stable Fish Pasta and Noodles Sweet Spreads and Sauces

Key Trends
Bread/Baked Products Crisps and Snacks Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Shelf Stable Vegetables Shelf Stable Fish Oil/Vinegar Pasta and Noodles Cereals Sweet Spreads and Sauces Sauces/Mixes Baking Ingredients Condiments Shelf Stable Ready Meals Wet Soups Seasoning 14.3% 11.9% 9.0% 7.8% 7.1% 5.3% 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 3.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3%

The spend per capita on the Ambient categories is in the UK 35% higher than in France. Across Europe the growth of Ambient was 2,6% over the whole year 2012. Spain, the Netherlands and UK were the countries where growth was more than 3%. Germany and UK staid behind with a growth of 1,5 and 1,8%. In almost all countries price inflation was the biggest driver for growth. The volume growth was rather flat. Raw materials, like sugar, wheat, fish, milk etc. are getting more expensive. Other drivers for growth are more promotions (Spain excluded) and the continuing trend of more home cooking / cooking from scratch. Also the weather conditions (too cold, too wet) had impact on the sales development of some categories. In all countries (except France) own label is benefitting from the economic outlook..

Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Europe

Top 5 Winners: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


Millions

Top 5 Losers: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


600
-20 -15 -10 -5 Millions 0

0
Crisps and Snacks Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Bread/Baked Products Sweet Spreads and Sauces

100

200

300

400

500

494.5 258.1 244.0 207.6 203.0

-1.8 -10.0 -18.2

Oil/Vinegar

Shelf Stable Meat

Shelf Stable Fish

Long Life Milk & Dairy Products

Top 5 Categories Evolution


Value Sales () and % Change vs. Yr Ago

Category Insights Crisps and Snacks is the top-winner. In all countries this category shows growth. Is in one country the growth in nature crisps, in the other its nuts that is driving the growth. More promotion and price raises are also contributing to the sales growth in this category. Bread and baked products is in most countries a fast growing category. In Germany this category is in decline Shelf stable fish is still in the top 5 due to price raises. The price raise (of sugar) is also an important reason for the growth of sweet spreads and sauces. Categories in decline across Europe that shows a decline European sales are shelf stable meat and oil&vinegar. Also shelf stable fruit is losing sales in 3 countries. The biggest decline is in longlife milk, due to the German market.

13,964.77 11,651.12

Millions

8,805.18 7,637.58 6,911.64

1.8

4.4

3.0

-0.2

1.8

Bread/Baked Crisps and Products Snacks

Sweet and Savoury Biscuits

Long Life Shelf Stable Milk & Dairy Vegetables Products

Total Sales

% vs. YA

Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

France

3,000 2,500 2,000


Millions Euros

Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year


2,486 2,041 1,588.41 1,368

1,500 1,000 500 0

1,266 907 843 795 759.59 746.92

Top 10
Bread/Baked Products Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Shelf Stable Vegetables Shelf Stable Fish Oil/Vinegar Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Crisps and Snacks Baking Ingredients Sweet Spreads and Sauces Shelf Stable Ready Meals

Bread/Baked Products Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Crisps and Snacks Shelf Stable Vegetables Baking Ingredients Shelf Stable Fish Sweet Spreads and Sauces Oil/Vinegar Shelf Stable Ready Meals Pasta and Noodles Sauces/Mixes Cereals Shelf Stable Fruit Sugar and Sweeteners Condiments

14.0% 11.5% 8.9% 7.7% 7.1% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 2.6% 2.5%

Key Trends Ambient shows a higher dynamism then the total FMCG in 2012 : +0.5% in units for Ambient vs +0.2% for FMCG (+2.9% in value vs +2.5% for FMCG) Promotion has played a major role in growth this year : promotion represents 10.5% of the ambient turnover in 2012 (+0.3pts vs 2011). For the total FMCG the boost of promotion has been ever bigger (+0.5pts @12.3%). National Brands show better unit trend than Private Label, as they are less affected by inflation (price +1.5% for national brand vs +3.9% for Private Label) and that they develop their offer. Private label thus lose 0.2pt of unit market share @ 44.3%... but win 0.4pt in value @34.9%

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

France

Top 5 Winners: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


0
Bread/Baked Products

Top 5 Losers: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


Millions
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0

20

40

60

80

Millions 100 120

96.4 66.6 62.9 37.0 36.5

Crisps and Snacks

-0.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7

Oil/Vinegar

Sw eet Spreads and Sauces

Shelf Stable Meat

Shelf Stable Vegetables Sw eet and Savoury Biscuits

Sugar and Sw eeteners

Shelf Stable Desserts

Top 5 Categories Evolution

Category Insights Good results in 2012 for categories that are dependent on weather conditions (compotes, jam, Cursed pieces of bread & cooking aids) Hand made trend also shows good results (pastry aids, herb & spices)

2,486 2,041

Millions

1,588 1,368 1,266

Bread / Baked products also show good dynamism Strong level of inflation on Shelf Stable Fish (+4.7), Shelf Stable Vegetable (3.99) and Aperitive Snacks (3.62)
3.0

4.0

0.2
Long Life Milk & Dairy Products

2.4
Sweet and Savoury Biscuits

5.1

Bread/Baked Products

Crisps and Snacks

Shelf Stable Vegetables

Total Sales

% vs. YA

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Germany

Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year


3,500 3,000 2,500
Millions Euros

3,040 2,576 1,784

2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

1,738

1,559

1,387

1,148

1,061 1,003.60 1,000.72

Top 10
Bread/Baked Products Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Condiments Baking Ingredients Crisps and Snacks Shelf Stable Vegetables Sweet Spreads and Sauces Seasoning Oil/Vinegar

Bread/Baked Products Crisps and Snacks Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Shelf Stable Vegetables Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Sweet Spreads and Sauces Condiments Seasoning Baking Ingredients Oil/Vinegar Shelf Stable Fish Sauces/Mixes Wet Soups Pasta and Noodles Cereals Shelf Stable Fruit

12.9% 10.9% 7.6% 7.4% 6.6% 5.9% 4.9% 4.5% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 2.6%

Key Trends Ambient registers an increase of +1,7% in value vs year ago and a decline in volume sales of -2,8%. Promotional sales show a doubledigit growth of +12,3% in value. 9,5% of total value sales derive from promotions. Hypermarket still is the most important channel for Ambient with a value share of 49,2%. It grows by 3,7% in value. Baked Products still are the most important segment in Ambient Irrespective of the decline in consumption of its major category Bread.

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Germany

Top 5 Winners: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


0
Crisps and Snacks

Top 5 Losers: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


Millions
-140.0 -120.0 -100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0

50

100

Millions 150

128.2 56.1 53.9 52.1 51.0


-123.3 -22.9 -28.8

-4.5 -8.5

Rice

Seasoning

Bread/Baked Products

Baking Ingredients Sw eet Spreads and Sauces Shelf Stable Fish

Shelf Stable Ready Meals

Wet Soups

Long Life Milk & Dairy Products

Top 5 Categories Evolution


Value Sales () and % Change vs. Yr Ago
3,040

Category Insights Baked Products slightly decline as the sales increases of all other categories cannot compensate the losses of Bread. Salty Snacks and Nuts & Raisins which together hold around 90% value share are driving the positive growth of Crisps and Snacks.

2,576

Millions

1,784

1,738 1,559

The decline of UHT Milk drives the overall loss of Long Life Milk & Dairy Products. In Shelf Stable Vegetables only canned vegetables and canned cucumbers are showing positive value growth .

5.2 -0.3 0.6 2.0

Bread/Baked Crisps and Products Snacks

Long Life Shelf Stable Milk & Dairy Vegetables Products % vs. YA

Sweet and Savoury Biscuits

More than half of the sales of Sweet and Savoury Biscuits derive from Discounters, which register a significant growth driven by promotions.

Total Sales

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

10

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Italy

Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year


2,500
2,033

2,000
Millions Euros

1,935.76 1,721 1,637 1,635 1,426 1,417 1,350 826.62

1,500 1,000 500 0

736.70

Top 10
Crisps and Snacks Pasta and Noodles Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Baking Ingredients Bread/Baked Products Shelf Stable Vegetables Oil/Vinegar Shelf Stable Fish Sweet Spreads and Sauces

Crisps and Snacks Bread/Baked Products Pasta and Noodles Shelf Stable Vegetables Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Oil/Vinegar Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Shelf Stable Fish Baking Ingredients Sweet Spreads and Sauces Dried Fruits Sugar and Sweeteners Cereals Rice Seasoning Sauces/Mixes

11.1% 10.5% 9.4% 8.9% 8.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.3% 4.5% 4.0% 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.4%

Key Trends
Ambient in 2012 has been stable in volume performancein value showed an increase near +2%. The reasons are: strong increased raw materials in big markets ( Tuna, Milk, tomato) The economic crisis bring to change the shopper behaviour : more rational approach to spending (no stocking, more visit Discounters, pay attention to promotion, more low price, home made trend). The performance of Christmas and Easter Cakes (in Bread/ Baked Products) was not outstanding: prices increased and promotional pressure was stable. Major Companies have reduced their adverting investment by more than 25% PL : +3% volume +7% value. PL is the best performer

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

11

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Italy

Top 5 Winners: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


0
Baking Ingredients Sw eet and Savoury Biscuits Sw eet Spreads and Sauces

Top 5 Losers: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


Millions
-25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0

20

40

60

Millions 80

57.8 52.9 49.4 39.9 34.4


-19.6 -6.7

-2.4 -3.6 -4.0

Shelf Stable Fruit

Dry Soups

Cereals

Shelf Stable Fish

Shelf Stable Meat

Shelf Stable Vegetables

Oil/Vinegar

Top 5 Categories Evolution


Value Sales () and % Change vs. Yr Ago

2,033

1,936 1,721 1,637 1,635

Category Insights The home made behaviour is confirmed, with the increase of Baking Ingredients (flours, prepared of dessert) Shelf Stable Fish continues to rise both for increase raw materials and is a cheap substitute of meat. One of most positive market (both in volume and value) is sweet spreads and sauces : Nutella is the Queen ..One of the main products of Ferrero Company, More Advertising during the 2012

Millions

0.2

1.5

0.2

2.1

1.4

Crisps and Snacks

Bread/Baked Products

Pasta and Noodles

Shelf Stable Long Life Milk Vegetables & Dairy Products

Total Sales

% vs. YA

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

12

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Netherlands

Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year


700 600
Millions Euros

662

650

500 400 300 200 100 0


389 331 316 310 305 167.58 149.33

140.79

Top 10
Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Sauces/Mixes Shelf Stable Vegetables Sweet Spreads and Sauces Shelf Stable Meat Crisps and Snacks Bread/Baked Products Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Wet Soups Seasoning

Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Crisps and Snacks Sauces/Mixes Bread/Baked Products Shelf Stable Vegetables Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Sweet Spreads and Sauces Wet Soups Shelf Stable Meat Seasoning Cereals Shelf Stable Ready Meals Pasta and Noodles Oil/Vinegar Baking Ingredients Dry Soups

15.3% 15.1% 9.0% 7.7% 7.3% 7.2% 7.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.3% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7%

Key Trends Total FMCG grew 2.1% over the year 2012, more driven by price increases than by more consumption or more volume. Within the Ambient category there was a growth of 3.7% in Euro sales, while volume only grew by 0.6% following a similar pattern as total FMCG but with stronger price increases. Private Label continued its growth, growing by 5.2% in 2012, increasing their share of Ambient from 34.2% to 34.6%. In volume the PL share rose from 39.7% to 40.8% Promotion pressure within Ambient went from 15.2% in 2011 to 16.3% in 2012, the biggest growth of promo pressure was among National Brands where the pressure went up from 17.1 to 18.3%.

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

13

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Netherlands

Top 5 Winners: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


0
Crisps and Snacks

10

20

30

Millions 40

Top 5 Losers: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


Millions
-16.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0

34.7 33.2 17.3 13.0 10.7


-15.1 -0.7 -0.8 -1.4
Shelf Stable Desserts

Sw eet Spreads and Sauces

Bread/Baked Products

Dried Beans and Vegetables

Sauces/Mixes

Dry Soups

Long Life Milk & Dairy Products

Sw eet and Savoury Biscuits

Top 5 Categories Evolution


662.49

Value Sales () and % Change vs. Yr Ago


649.74

Millions

388.82 331.03 315.69

5.6 3.4 -2.2


Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Crisps and Snacks

5.5 1.8

Sauces/Mixes Bread/Baked Products

Shelf Stable Vegetables

Total Sales

% vs. YA

Category Insights In general it can be said that due to the economic turmoil/crisis the Dutch consumer spends more time eating at home, the Horeca being badly hit but certain categories within supermarkets profit from this, e.g. Sauces & mixes, Bread and baked products. The biggest driver for the value growth is price increases. Crisps and snacks continued growth from the previous quarters, similar as mentioned in the general part mostly driven by price increase, the volume increase was little over 1%. Sauces also grew based on price increases as the volume grew only 0.8%. The sauces and mixes are profiting from people cooking more at home, even more through the price increase. Despite increased promotional pressure in the Sweet and Savoury biscuits category it did not stop the decline both in volume and value

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

14

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Spain

Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year


2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
1,786 1,701.49 1,363 1,343 1,147 860 839 477 433.71

Millions Euros

352.63

Top 10
Bread/Baked Products Shelf Stable Fish Oil/Vinegar Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Shelf Stable Fruit Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Crisps and Snacks Shelf Stable Vegetables Condiments Cereals

Bread/Baked Products Long Life Milk & Dairy Products Shelf Stable Fish Crisps and Snacks Oil/Vinegar Shelf Stable Vegetables Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Condiments Shelf Stable Fruit Cereals Shelf Stable Desserts Pasta and Noodles Sweet Spreads and Sauces Wet Soups Sugar and Sweeteners Rice

14.0% 13.3% 10.7% 10.5% 9.0% 6.7% 6.6% 3.7% 3.4% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8%

Key Trends Ambient is showing a good performance. Growth is given mainly by Private Labels. Only Private Labels are gaining market share. Consumption is flat, price is driving value. On the other hand, promotions are slightly declining in most categories, due to mix sales (brands vs PL).

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

15

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

Spain

Top 5 Winners: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


0
Long Life Milk & Dairy Products

20

40

60

Millions 80

Top 5 Losers: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


Millions
-4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 Shelf Stable Ready Meals

70.5 60.9 58.4 50.0 42.9


-3.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5

-0.2

Bread/Baked Products

Sauces/Mixes

Shelf Stable Fish

Shelf Stable Meat

Crisps and Snacks Sw eet and Savoury Biscuits

Shelf Stable Fruit

Cereals

Top 5 Categories Evolution


Value Sales () and % Change vs. Yr Ago
1,786.19 1,701.49

Category Insights Long life milk and dairy products are increasing value due to increased raw materials prices. Crisps and Snacks are one of the few categories increased their promotional activity.
1,147.17

1,362.94

1,342.88

Millions

Bread and Baked products are growing due to new product development. PL is driving shelf stable fish categories.

3.5

4.3

4.5

3.9 0.9

Bread/Baked Products

Long Life Milk & Dairy Products

Shelf Stable Fish

Crisps and Snacks

Oil/Vinegar

Total Sales

% vs. YA

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

16

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

United Kingdom

Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year


5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
4,385 3,681 2,740 1,703

Millions Euros

1,356

1,096

965

639

581.24

579.05

Top 10
Bread/Baked Products Cereals Shelf Stable Ready Meals Wet Soups Crisps and Snacks Sauces/Mixes Shelf Stable Desserts Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Shelf Stable Vegetables Shelf Stable Fish

Key Trends
Bread/Baked Products Crisps and Snacks Sweet and Savoury Biscuits Cereals Sauces/Mixes Shelf Stable Vegetables Shelf Stable Ready Meals Shelf Stable Desserts Shelf Stable Fish Wet Soups Rice Baking Ingredients Condiments Pasta and Noodles Shelf Stable Meat Dried Fruits 20.8% 17.4% 13.0% 8.1% 6.4% 5.2% 4.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3%

Christmas sales were underwhelming in the UK in 2012, though online sales showed strong growth. The UK economy shrank by 0.3% in the last three months of 2012, further fuelling fears that the economy could re-enter recession. Cautious shoppers continue to shop for bargains and use the internet to check prices on-line. Inflation is evident across most ambient food categories. In particular we see price increases within canned goods and wheat based products such as home baking. There are some price decreases in own label within some categories e.g. desserts, hot snacks, which will increasingly drive shoppers towards own label alternatives. Retailers are promoting more to counter the effects of inflation, giving more focus to expandable categories. Commodity categories e.g. rice and condiments are given less focus. Easy Eating and canned soups are benefiting from increased promotional focus. Soups are appealing to shoppers in cold weather.

Data for the United Kingdom does not include Northern Ireland Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

17

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Ambient SymphonyIRI Pulse Q4 2012

United Kingdom

Top 5 Winners: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


0
Crisps and Snacks Sw eet and Savoury Biscuits

50

100

150

Millions 200 250

Top 5 Losers: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago ()


Millions -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0

210.0 109.8 67.3 49.4


-8.0 -3.2 -0.1
Shelf Stable Fruit

Cereals

-0.1

Sugar and Sw eeteners

Bread/Baked Products

Long Life Milk & Dairy Products

Shelf Stable Meat

Wet Soups

35.9

Top 5 Categories Evolution


Value Sales () and % Change vs. Yr Ago
4,385.05

Category Insights
Year to date, ambient food is growing +3.4% but volume sales are in decline -0.1%. The impact of price increases is affecting growth. Similar trends are seen in frozen food. Hot snacks and home-baking continue to show strong performance, tapping into convenience and scratch-cooking trends. Sauces and other bakery also show strong growth, fuelled by both inflation and innovation. Canned categories e.g. veg, canned meat and fish are generally underperforming, as they are impacted by the effects of inflation. Private Label is growing share in many categories particularly within wheat-based categories e.g. cake and cereal, where inflation is driving shoppers into cheaper alternatives. Rice inflation is also impacted by climate change, and subsequently sees an increase in own label share.

3,681.40

2,739.53

Millions

1,702.55 1,355.58

6.0 112

4.2

4.1 1.5

Bread/Baked Products

Crisps and Snacks

Sweet and Savoury Biscuits

Cereals

Sauces/Mixes

Total Sales

% vs. YA

Data for the United Kingdom does not include Northern Ireland Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 30 Dec, 12

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Final Notes
Notes on Category Definitions for Countries Due to the diverse products found in individual countries across this market it was necessary to consolidate the available data into the categories in this report. In some cases it wasnt always possible to align products across all six countries hence the need to highlight any anomalies in the report. Those exceptions are listed below: Shelf Stable Fruits The UK data in this report only includes mincemeat for this category Sweet & Savoury Biscuits The UK data in this report only includes biscuits and does not include crackers or wafers for this category Bread / Baked Products The Netherlands data in this report only includes shelf stable bread and no other baked goods Sweet Spreads & Sauces The German and Netherlands data in this report both include peanut butter and other nut spreads and the other countries do not Savoury Spreads The France data in this report does not include this category Dry Soups The Italy data in this report also includes some risotto and pasta products Sugar & Sweeteners The UK data in this report does not include sugar whereas the other countries do

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Resources
To gain insight into opportunities across specific categories, segments, channels or retailers, contact your SymphonyIRI client service representative regarding custom analyses leveraging the following resources: InfoScan Census is a syndicated retail tracking service that enables manufacturers and retailers to acquire industry insights used to make better business decisions. InfoScan Census utilises the data that SymphonyIRI Group collects from grocery, drug, and mass merchandise retailers to provide the most comprehensive and accurate syndicated data offering in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector. With access to accurate, granular detail by category, geography, measure, and time period, clients have the tools needed to develop marketing and sales strategies based on product performance, distribution, and promotion responsiveness. All data about Ambient comes from InfoScan Census. SymphonyIRI Consulting provides strategic insights and advice leveraging a variety of data sources, predictive analytics, enabling technologies, and business analyses to help FMCG manufacturers and retailers address significant sales and marketing issues effectively.

Contact: SymphonyIRI Group, EU.Marketing@SymphonyIRI.com, Tel: +33 1 30 06 23 62

About SymphonyIRI Group SymphonyIRI group, formerly named Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), is the global leader in innovative solutions and services for driving revenue and profit growth in FMCG, retail and healthcare companies. SymphonyIRI offers two families of solutions: core IRI solutions for market measurement and symphony advantage solutions for enabling new growth opportunities in marketing, sales, shopper marketing and category management. SymphonyIRI solutions uniquely combine content, analytics and technology to deliver maximum impact. SymphonyIRI helps companies create, plan and execute forward-looking, shopper-centric strategies across every level of the organisation. For more information, visit www.SymphonyIRI.eu

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