April 12, 2013

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com! ValuEngine.com.

VALUATION WATCH: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks now make up 61% of our universe and 24% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued--12 out of 16 by double digits . MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

Week Open
14565.25 3207.15 925.93 1553.26

Thurs Close
14865.1 3300.16 947.05 1593.37

Change
299.85 93.01 21.12 40.11

% Change
2.06% 2.90% 2.28% 2.58%

YTD
13.44% 9.29% 11.50% 11.72%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 38.93% 61.07% 15.48% 24.27%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
0.67% 0.35% -0.21% -0.03% -0.29% 0.32% 0.31% 0.91% 0.20% 0.12% 0.35% 0.60% -0.25% 0.80% 0.17% 0.66%

MTD
1.84% 0.92% 0.78% -1.11% -0.90% -0.75% 0.79% 0.63% 0.84% -0.81% 0.36% 0.67% -0.46% 2.64% -1.29% 1.64%

YTD
12.95% 7.86% 5.73% 10.98% 9.60% 13.76% 15.51% 11.29% 13.14% 13.13% 12.61% 5.83% 7.24% 20.42% 18.38% 8.39%

Valuation
12.06% overvalued 6.17% overvalued 5.29% undervalued 11.31% overvalued 11.85% overvalued 18.69% overvalued 8.27% overvalued 18.08% overvalued 16.34% overvalued 11.02% overvalued 9.62% overvalued 4.56% overvalued 5.50% overvalued 16.11% overvalued 20.00% overvalued 11.17% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
10.53% 6.76% -26.57% 13.84% 2.27% 30.98% 12.35% 11.87% 15.66% 7.08% 13.35% 9.21% -7.05% 20.37% 10.63% 9.12%

P/E Ratio
15.28 18.36 19.63 21.12 25.52 24.19 23.03 20.4 17.81 18.12 22.88 15.3 24.81 21.08 20.88 18.32

Sector TalkIndustrial Products

Below, we present the latest data on leading Consumer Discretionary Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Industrial Products Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
MCP SLT ACCO JOY HDSN

Name
MOLYCORP INC STERLITE INDUST ACCO BRANDS CP JOY GLOBAL INC HUDSON TECHNOLO

Mkt Price
5.77 6.54 6.62 54.84 3.77

Valuation(%)
300 N/A -14.82 0.99 -4.76

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-81.79 -20.44 -43.37 -25.38 30

Top-Five Industrial Products Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
MCP SLT ACCO JOY HDSN

Name
MOLYCORP INC STERLITE INDUST ACCO BRANDS CP JOY GLOBAL INC HUDSON TECHNOLO

Mkt Price
5.77 6.54 6.62 54.84 3.77

Valuation(%)
300 N/A -14.82 0.99 -4.76

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-81.79 -20.44 -43.37 -25.38 30

Top-Five Industrial Products Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
VCI CNH DE HDSN CAT

Name
VALASSIS COMMS CNH GLOBAL NV DEERE & CO HUDSON TECHNOLO CATERPILLAR INC

Mkt Price
28 42.23 87.58 3.77 85.7

Valuation(%)
-14.85 -22.67 0.89 -4.76 -10.55

Last 12-M Retn(%)

26.01 6.86 12.93 30 -15.77

Top-Five Industrial Products Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
MCP FES APOG AIN NPO

Name
MOLYCORP INC FORBES ENERGY APOGEE ENTRPRS ALBANY INTL A ENPRO INDUS INC

Mkt Price
5.77 3.96 25.94 29.92 49.25

Valuation(%)
300 152.98 57.57 55.35 54.68

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-81.79 -21.74 88.79 32.62 23.53

Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know, ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and creation tools. If you are reading this you should sign up for ValuEngine's award-winning To Sign Up for a stock valuation and forecast FREE TRIAL, service Please Click HERE NO OBLIGATION, 30 DAY FREE TRIAL!

Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Detailed Stock Valuation Reports--this report is normally $25.00 This week's free download is our report on BIOGEN IDEC Pharmaceuticals Corporation (BIIB). Biogen Idec Inc. (Biogen Idec) is a global biotechnology company. The Company discovers, develops, manufactures and markets therapies for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, hemophilia and autoimmune disorders. The Companys products include AVONEX, TYSABRI, FAMPYRA, FUMADERM and RITUXAN. In September 2011, the Company acquired from the Dompe Group the noncontrolling interests in its joint venture sales affiliates in Italy and Switzerland. In April 2013, Elan Corporation, plc closed the TYSABRI (natalizumab) Collaboration Transaction with Biogen Idec. Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Biogen IDEC HERE. (LINK IS WORKING/NEW LINK SYSTEM DIRECT DOWNLOAD)

What's Hot--Valuation (Again)

The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 8000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges. The model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries. Whenever we see levels in overvaluation levels in excess of @ 60% for the overall universe and/or 27.5% for the overvalued by 20% or more categories, we issue a valuation watch. After a slight respite and a week of levels under 60%, the recent market leg up has once again driven overvaluation levels above the 60% threshold. So, as of Wednesday's close, we have once again issued a valuation watch. We will probably see much fluctuation moving forward as the market keeps pushing all-time highs. Again, we think it is a good time to book some profits and hedge against a move to the downside. Subscribers Get FULL ACCESS to our Market and Sector Overviews The chart below tracks the valuation metrics from January 1, 2013 until today.

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.793) Weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.833, 1.981, 2.035, 2.476 and 3.063 with daily and semiannual risky levels at 1.722 and 1.413. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold ($1560.2) Daily and weekly value levels are $1533.6 and $1506.6 and annual, semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1599.9, $1719.2, $1723.4, $1808.3 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($93.46) Daily, weekly and quarterly value levels are $91.27, $91.50 and $79.66 with monthly and annual risky levels at $98.93 and $115.23. The Euro (1.3100) Semiannual, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.2797, 1.2738, 1.2489 and 1.2169 with daily, annual and monthly risky levels at 1.3141, 1.3257 and 1.3668. Major Indices Daily DOW (14,865) Semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,323, 14,286, 13,755 and 12,696 with daily and weekly pivots at 14,806 and 14,719. Set new all time intra-day high and closing highs at 14,887.51 and 14,865.14 on April 11, 2013. S&P 500 (1593.4) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1448.7 and 1348.3 with daily, monthly, semiannual and weekly pivots at 1580.8, 1565.8, 1566.9 and 1570.5, and the new all time high at 1597.35 set on April 11, 2013.

NASDAQ (3300) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 3263, 3106 and 2806 with weekly and monthly pivots at 3237 and 3289, and semiannual risky level at 3583. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2859) Daily, weekly and annual value levels are 2834 and 2784 and 2463 with quarterly and monthly pivots at 2819 and 2839. Dow Transports (6165) Annual and quarterly value levels are 5469 and 5324 with annual, monthly, semiannual and daily pivots at 5925, 5960, 5955 and 6019, and weekly risky level at 6267. The all time intra-day high is 6291.65 on March 19, 2013 and an all time closing high at 6281.24 on March 14, 2013. Russell 2000 (947.05) Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 928.55, 860.25, 809.54 and 807.82 with weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at 951.53, 958.79 and 965.51. Set a new all time intra-day high at 954.00 on March 15, 2013. The SOX (435.63) Daily, monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 425.76, 419.96, 357.61 and 338.03 with a weekly pivot at 431.33. My semiannual risky level is 520.17 with the July 2007 high at 549.39.

Stock of the Day

One of the more popular features of Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing for investors is his stock of the day. In every issue, Suttmeier highlights one stock and provides VE data as well as his own proprietary technical data. Here is today's stock of the day from Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing Newsletter. Goldman Sachs (GS) ($149.07) Goldman Sachs is a global investment banking and securities firm, providing a full range of investing, advisory and financing services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base, which includes corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high net worth individuals.

Analysis Goldman Sachs has a Hold rating with fair value at $125.29, which makes the stock 19.3% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year price target is $153.24. The daily chart for GS shows rising momentum with the stock between its 21-day and 50- day simple moving averages at $147.76 and $150.22, and below the 200-day simple moving average at $124.04. My weekly value level is $148.08 with a monthly risky level at $161.11.

With Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing, you get daily analysis of US Treasury Yields, Gold, Crude Oil, and Currency Exchange Rates--Dollar, Yen, Pound, and Euro--as well as key technical indicators for the major equity averages.

Click HERE to Sign Up for Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing!

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We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE

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