The National and Provincial Assemblies have completed their tenures and caretake rs have assumed controls to see

through Pakistan till the next transition. Despi te a week in office, the cabinets are incomplete. As the realities of the onerou s challenges dawn on them so will the late inductions into the cabinets. It is also important to take cognizance of the international and regional dynami cs on the outcome of these elections. Though to ordinary voters, it may appear t o be just another election, Pakistan s political parties need to carry out a quick appraisal and comprehend external factors that may affect the ultimate outcome in this mother of all elections. Though the caretakers are exclusively required to conduct credible elections and hand over power to the elected government, Pakistan s peculiar circumstances warr ant immediate action on three counts to arrest the rot. If not, any new governme nt particularly parties thriving on anti US rhetoric will default on its electio n promises. As the budgetary year closes, Pakistan s debt trap is the biggest source of concer n. So far no economic team has been selected to prepare the frame work of negoti ations with IMF and the draft of the Budget 2013-14. This factor alone would put the new elected government in a weak bargaining position. Endemic institutional corruption continues to run beyond the scrutiny of the ele ction candidates. In order to forestall the NAB inquiries into the PSO affairs w here annual corruption runs into trillions, an effort is at hand to palm off Cha irman PSO Sohail Wajahat Siddiqui to the federal cabinet. His position as minist er will prevent NAB from investigating into the mega scandal during the course o f the election campaign. Control of violence particularly in Karachi has been left to the directives of t he Supreme Court. Punjab once again became the ugly scene of communal violence a t Gujranwala. Balochistan is already on a boil. The methods of scrutiny through Articles 62 and 63 have opened a Pandora s Box of contradictions in Pakistan s politic body. In case Ayaz Amir s disqualification is n ot overturned in appeals, it will set a precedence to deny space to the moderate and educated elements that tend to see Pakistan in light of the Lahore Resoluti on rather than the Ideology of Pakistan imposed by military dictators. It appear s that some segments of this confused and inconsistent scrutiny will impact on s ocial harmony in Pakistan and political aspirants of the future will be reluctan t to debate questions that pertain to the difference between Jinnah Ka Pakistan and Dictators ka Pakistan. In contrast those involved in planning, abetting and promoting violence have gone scot free. The fake degree cases being handled inco nsistently by session judges will also result in a high rate of convictions. It appears that in this game fiercely contested by President Asif Ali Zardari, J udiciary, Election Commission of Pakistan and the establishment, the die has bee n cast and the familiar narrative of regime change has morphed to a new methodol ogy. Odds now are against the President and his NRO allies. The high attrition o f mainstream politicians presents two scenarios. First, the parties may still go ahead by trusting reins in the hand of second an d third tier leadership. Secondly, the casualties may force some parties to boyc ott the elections. The rider clause is that all disqualified candidates will be automatically debarred from holding party positions under the Political Parties Act and lose it forever. This may lead these parties into agitation and lawlessn ess on the streets that may run berserk. The logical outcomes thence are electio ns on schedule or extension in the caretakers morphing into a technocrat interim government for a fixed period under orders of the Supreme Court of Pakistan.

Alternatively, if elections go as scheduled, Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf with a maj or part of its top leadership intact could turn out to be the most winnable grou p to contest and lead a future coalition. However, its lack of homework in Sindh , Southern Punjab and Balochistan may deprive it of a ruling majority. The scrut iny of ex President Musharraf would decide his role in any future political disp ensation. With his papers rejected in Kasur, he faces an uncertain future and an uphill task with far reaching consequences. Deprived of presidential immunity, the scrutiny would ultimately disqualify President Asif Ali Zardari as a candida te with Faryal Talpur remaining the obvious choice. In this backdrop, the caretakers backed by the presidency, seem in no hurry to c ommence a stabilization process against terrorism. This means prolonging and fan ning discontent and fractures, depriving the next government to take a head star t on the three critical issues mentioned above. The biggest fear is that if ther e are no settled elections in Pakistan, downturn would continue and plunge Pakis tan into chaos and a fierce internal conflict with an overhang of US led withdra wal from Afghanistan. To overcome this scary scenario, the interim option would present itself as the most logical in a carefully crafted but dangerous situatio n. In case the above scenario is possible, the flurry of recent diplomacy between L ondon, Dubai, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bonn and Ankara indicates awareness to the fa llouts of the contemplated exit from Afghanistan on Pakistan. In this context, p robabilities lead to possibilities. Otherwise what explanation could one offer o n the return of ex President Musharraf and the silence of PMLN and PPPP on the d evelopment? It appears that within Obama s new political direction, USA wants to g ive Pakistan a chance to bring prosperity and peace within and the region. Howev er, the complexity of a government that lacks capacity, a wait and see establish ment, self serving politicians and an expected split mandate may lack the combin ed will to put Pakistan on that elusive road. Since the arguments in this article are based on an overhang, nothing would be c omplete without factorizing Afghanistan. President Hamid Karzai is running towar ds the end of his two term tenure in 2014. Given the traditional and primordial Afghan tendencies, he will be tempted to shift his focus to the lower trajectori es of rhetoric and tirades against Pakistan. One of the effects of such a U turn in Afghan politics will be their traditional propensity to ignore all suggestio ns and do things the Afghan way. This would put Pakistan-Afghan relations on a d ownward trend till such time a new President is chosen. Though expediency would demand a return of a Pashtun face, there remains a strong possibility of men lik e Abdullah Abdullah return to power, lest a similar electoral drama is also enac ted across the Durand Line. To continue exerting pressure on Pakistan and Afghan istan with weak coalitions, the dreaded AFPAK variant could melt further convert ing both sides of the line in one unstable geographical zone to the determent of Pakistan s interests. It appears that there are some elements who wish the Pakist an Army to undertake fight to the finish strategy. This school feels that such a fierce and prolonged engagement would serve the ends of the Memo Strategy and c ause the demise of a military led establishment. It is in the overhang of such international and regional environments that Pakis tan is passing through the electoral process that could take many twist and turn s in the days to come. Yet all political parties are focused on electoral issues rather than what lies in wait for them. Though constitutionalist would wish tha t the democratic process should continue, the anathema lies in the very transpar ent term of free, fair and credible elections. The process of qualifications und er the constitution would invalid many old and familiar horses with the possibil ity of violent reactions. To get over this hill and continue with the evolution of democratic norms should be the concern of all political leaders. Once in powe r, they can debate and bring changes to Articles 62 and 63 that give sweeping po wers to the election commission. It is also in the interests of Pakistanis acros

s all divides to continue the debate between the Lahore Resolution and Ideology of Pakistan in line with the dynamics of Pakistan Movement. The key to restoring democratic stability is therefore in the hands of those who are most likely to be penalized under the qualification clauses. Que Sera Sera! What will be, will be!