Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th

century and its projected continuation. Since the early 20th century, Earth's mean surface temperature has [2] increased by about 0.8 C (1.4 F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain that it is primarily caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as the burning of fossil [3][4][5][6] fuels and deforestation. These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all major [7][A] industrialized nations. Climate model projections were summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 C (2 to 5.2 F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 [8] to 6.4 C (4.3 to 11.5 F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with [9][10] differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations. Future warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe. The effects of an increase in global temperature include a rise in sea levels and a change in the amount and pattern [12] of precipitation, as well a probable expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include a more frequent occurrence of extreme-weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall, ocean acidification and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes. Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and theloss of [13][14] habitat from inundation.
[11]

his figure is a simplified, schematic representation of the flows of energy between space, the atmosphere, and the Earth's surface, and shows how these flows combine to trap heat near the surface and create 2 the greenhouse effect. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m ) and derived from Kiehl & Trenberth (1997). The sun is responsible for virtually all energy that reaches the Earth's surface. Direct overhead sunlight at the top 2 of the atmosphere provides 1366 W/m ; however, geometric effects and reflective surfaces limit the light which is 2 absorbed at the typical location to an annual average of ~235 W/m . If this were the total heat received at the surface, then, neglecting changes in albedo, the Earth's surface would be expected to have an

average temperature of -18 C (Lashof 1989). Instead, the Earth's atmosphere recycles heat coming from the 2 surface and delivers an additional 324 W/m , which results in an average surface temperature of roughly +14 C [1]. Of the surface heat captured by the atmosphere, more than 75% can be attributed to the action of greenhouse gases that absorb thermal radiation emitted by the Earth's surface. The atmosphere in turn transfers the energy it receives both into space (38%) and back to the Earth's surface (62%), where the amount transferred in each direction depends on the thermal and density structure of the atmosphere. This process by which energy is recycled in the atmosphere to warm the Earth's surface is known as the greenhouse effect and is an essential piece of Earth's climate. Under stable conditions, the total amount of energy entering the system from solar radiation will exactly balance the amount being radiated into space, thus allowing the Earth to maintain a constant average temperature over time. However, recent measurements 2 indicate that the Earth is presently absorbing 0.85 0.15 W/m more than it emits into space (Hansen et al. 2005). An overwhelming majority of climate scientists believe that this asymmetry in the flow of energy has been significantly increased by human emissions of greenhouse gases

he greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back towards the surface and the lower atmosphere, it results in an elevation of the average surface temperature above what it [1][2] would be in the absence of the gases. Solar radiation at the frequencies of visible light largely passes through the atmosphere to warm the planetary surface, which then emits this energy at the lower frequencies of infrared thermal radiation. Infrared radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gases, which in turn re-radiate much of the energy to the surface and lower atmosphere. The mechanism is named after the effect of solar radiation passing through glass and warming a greenhouse, but the way it retains heat is fundamentally different as a greenhouse works by reducing airflow, [2][3][4] isolating the warm air inside the structure so that heat is not lost by convection. If an ideal thermally conductive blackbody was the same distance from the Sun as the Earth is, it would have a [5] [6] temperature of about 5.3 C. However, since the Earth reflects about 30% of the incoming sunlight, this idealized planet's effective temperature (the temperature of a blackbody that would emit the same amount of [7][8] radiation) would be about 18 C. The surface temperature of this hypothetical planet is 33 C below Earth's [9] actual surface temperature of approximately 14 C. The mechanism that produces this difference between the actual surface temperature and the effective temperature is due to the atmosphere and is known as the [10] greenhouse effect. Earths natural greenhouse effect makes life as we know it possible. However, human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests, have intensified the natural greenhouse effect, causing global warming

Greenhouse gases
By their percentage contribution to the greenhouse effect on Earth the four major gases are:
[21][22]

water vapor, 3670% carbon dioxide, 926% methane, 49% ozone, 37%

The major non-gas contributor to the Earth's greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and thus have an effect on radiative properties of the atmosphere.

Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions, or in the distribution of weather around the average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change is caused by factors that include oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), variations in solar radiationreceived by Earth, plate tectonics and volcanic eruptions, and human-induced alterations of the natural world; these latter effects are currently causingglobal warming, and "climate change" is often used to describe human-specific impacts. Scientists actively work to understand past and future climate by using observations and theoretical models. Borehole temperature profiles, ice cores, floral and faunal records, glacial and periglacial processes, stable isotope and other sediment analyses, and sea level records serve to provide a climate record that spans the geologic past. More recent data are provided by the instrumental record. Physically based general circulation modelsare often used in theoretical approaches to match past climate data, make future projections, and link causes and effects in climate change.