BAYES OR BUST? BAYESIAN CONFIRMATION WT ey JOHN EARMANBayes or Bust? A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confirmation Theory John Earman A Bradford Book The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England© 1992 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. This book was set in Times Roman by Asco Trade Typesetting Ltd., Hong Kong, and was printed and bound in the United States of America. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Earman, John. Bayes or bust? : a critical examination of Bayesian confirmation theory / John Earman. Pp. cm. “A Bradford book.” Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-262-05046-3 1. Science—Philosophy. 2. Science—Methodology. 3. Bayesian statistical decision theory. I. Title. QI175.E23 1992 502.8—dc20 91-35623 CIP For Peter Hempel, teacher extraordinaire, And Grover Maxwell, a gentleman who left his mark on an ungentlemanly world