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PaulBaiocchi,Moderator
ETFAnalyst,IndexUniverse
TomDorsey,Presenter
President &Founding Member Dorsey,Wright&Associates
ETFsAcrossEveryMajorAssetClassNowWhat?
ForAdvisorUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
WIKIPEDIA
SpidersDebut1993anditsofftotheraces OptionsonXAUIndexesbegantradingin1983.
ETFWorldCirca2000:30ETFs
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ForAdvisorUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
12+years (sofar)
ForBroker/AdvisorUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
ForAdvisorUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
AGamePlanBasedonSupplyandDemand
Weallunderstandthebasic forcesofsupplyand demand. Thesameforcesthataffect pricesinthesupermarket alsoaffectpricesinthestock market. Stocks,sectors,andasset classesmoveinandoutof favorjustlikeproduceinthe supermarket.
For Broker / Advisor Use Only. Not For Use With The Public.
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For Broker / Advisor Use Only. Not For Use With The Public.
Double Bottom
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For Broker / Advisor Use Only. Not For Use With The Public.
QuizQuestion:WhosinControl?
Knowing nothing about this security. Does the chart suggest demand, or supply, is controlling the price movement? What would you do?
ForBroker/AdvisorUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
ForBroker/AdvisorUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
For Broker / Advisor Use Only. Not For Use With The Public.
RelativeStrengthBasics: StockRS
Thisrelativestrengthchartis onaPoint&FigureBuySignal andinacolumnofXs AAPLhaspositivelongterm andshorttermRSversusthe broadmarket. Ithasbeenonabuysignal sinceMarch10th,2004
(to11/7/11)
AAPL=+2788.22% SPXEWI=+38.36%
ForFinancialProfessionalUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
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DWAHEAL: + 62.31 %
DWAHEAL: + 123.91%
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SML gave buy signal versus SPX on 2/18/2000 to suggest Small Cap Stocks should outperform Large Cap stocks. Since 2/18/2000 SML: + 100.65% SPX: - 6.31%
Buy Signal = Favors Small Caps Sell Signal = Favors Large Caps
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ForFinancialProfessionalUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
Ingredients For ?
Curry Shrimp BlackPepper Butter Croutons Celery Lettuce TomatoSauce HeavyCream Squash Oysters LemonJuice Flour Turkey Almonds Lobster Sausage Onions WhiteSugar GratedCarrots ChoppedPecans Tomatoes Basil RedPepper Nutmeg GarlicSalt GroundBeef Eggplant Yeast Salmon PorkShank Cauliflower Eggs Ginger Steak Salt Cinnamon Cheese Asparagus Chicken Mushrooms Rice Beets Parsley Milk Chives Apples Pineapple Honey FetaCheese Eggs BakingSoda VanillaExtract BakingPowder Capers DryMustard Cabbage SnapPeas Vinegar Bacon SweetPotato LasagnaNoodles Potatoes Spinach MintLeaf CornSyrup WasabiPowder VegetableOil
Directionsfor CarrotCake
1. 2. 3. 4. Preheatovento350degreesF(175degreesC).Greaseandfloura9x13inchpan. Inalargebowl,beattogethereggs,oil,whitesugarand2teaspoonsvanilla.Mixin flour,bakingsoda,bakingpowder,saltandcinnamon.Stirincarrots.Foldinpecans. Pourintopreparedpan. Bakeinthepreheatedovenfor40to50minutes,oruntilatoothpickinsertedintothe centerofthecakecomesoutclean.Letcoolinpanfor10minutes,thenturnoutontoa wirerackandcoolcompletely. ToMakeFrosting:Inamediumbowl,combinebutter,creamcheese,confectioners' sugarand1teaspoonvanilla.Beatuntilthemixtureissmoothandcreamy.Stirin choppedpecans.Frostthecooledcake.
Example: FirstTrustFocus5Model
All Sector Funds from First Trust (25 ETFs)
RS Screening Sieve
(Top 5 Rank on a Relative Strength Matrix)
BestRanking
CurrentPDPAllocations
Source:www.invescopowershares.com
ForFinancialProfessionalUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
AseamlesstransactionthroughtheuseofTechnology:ThisistheFuture!
REPLACINGONECOUNTRYWITHANOTHER
ForFinancialProfessionalUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
Large Losers
Most Trades
Large Winners
ForAdvisorUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
BuildingaBusinessAndaBrand
RinseWash Rebalance
MeanVariance Optimization
Source:wealthfront.com
StrategicAllocationReportCard
Question: Whatwasthecumulativereturnof thisStrategicAllocationApproach since12/31/1999withannual rebalancing? (Forperspective,MoneyMarket gained30.4%duringthistime.) A. B. C. D. +0%,orless +30% +60% +150%,ormore
December 31, 1999 - December 31, 2011 December 31, 1999 - December 31, 2011 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2000 - 2011 2000 - 2011
Money Int'l Money Int'l Commod. Market Commod. Equities Commod. Market Commod. Equities 14.39% 3.33% 18.42% 40.83% 14.39% 3.33% 18.42% 40.83% Money Fixed Foreign US Money Fixed Foreign US Market Income Currency Equities Market Income Currency Equities 5.91% 1.81% 9.75% 27.37% 5.91% 1.81% 9.75% 27.37% Fixed Foreign Fixed Strategic Fixed Foreign Fixed Strategic Income Currency Income Allocation Income Currency Income Allocation 4.18% -5.33% 2.37% 24.24% 4.18% -5.33% 2.37% 24.24% Money Money DWA6040 DWA6040 Market DWA6040 DWA6040 DWA6040 Market DWA6040 -4.07% -6.82% 1.58% 15.26% -4.07% -6.82% 1.58% 15.26% Strategic Strategic Strategic Foreign Strategic Strategic Strategic Foreign
Int'l Int'l Commod. Equities Commod. Commod. Equities Commod. 21.44% 26.65% 17.24% 21.44% 26.65% 17.24% Int'l US Int'l Int'l US Int'l Commod. Equities Equities Equities Commod. Equities Equities Equities 12.47% 16.62% 13.34% 12.63% 12.47% 16.62% 13.34% 12.63% Strategic Strategic Strategic Foreign Strategic Strategic Strategic Foreign Allocation Allocation Allocation Currency Allocation Allocation Allocation Currency 11.10% 7.30% 12.93% 7.62% 11.10% 7.30% 12.93% 7.62% US US Strategic US US Strategic Equities Equities Commod. Allocation Equities Equities Commod. Allocation 9.84% 3.65% 9.19% 6.25% 9.84% 3.65% 9.19% 6.25% Foreign Money Money Foreign Money Money Market Market 3.01% 3.01% DWA6040 DWA6040 7.79% 7.79% Foreign Foreign Currency Currency 6.93% 6.93% Money Money Market Market 4.74% 4.74% Fixed Fixed Income Income -0.70% -0.70% DWA6040 DWA6040 3.61% 3.61% US US Equities Equities 3.47% 3.47% Fixed Fixed Income Income 2.74% 2.74% Market Market 4.36% 4.36%
Fixed Fixed Income Income 2.05% 2.05% Money Money Market Market 1.33% 1.33% Foreign Foreign Currency Currency -10.06% -10.06% DWA6040 DWA6040 -23.01% -23.01%
Int'l Int'l Equities Equities 33.79% 33.79% US US Equities Equities 23.89% 23.89% Strategic Strategic Allocation Allocation 22.14% 22.14% Commod. Commod. 20.07% 20.07%
Commod. Commod. 25.19% 25.19% US US Equities Equities 14.18% 14.18% Strategic Strategic Allocation Allocation 10.36% 10.36% DWA6040 DWA6040 8.92% 8.92% Int'l Int'l Equities Equities 8.69% 8.69% Foreign Foreign Currency Currency 5.86% 5.86% Fixed Fixed Income Income 2.14% 2.14% Money Money Market Market 0.16% 0.16%
Fixed Fixed Income Income 4.07% 4.07% DWA6040 DWA6040 0.62% 0.62% Money Money Market Market 0.05% 0.05% US US Equities Equities -0.14% -0.14% Foreign Foreign Currency Currency -1.63% -1.63% Strategic Strategic Allocation Allocation -4.67% -4.67%
Commod. Commod. 117.43% 117.43% Strategic Strategic Allocation Allocation 30.54% 30.54% Money Money Market Market 30.40% 30.40% Foreign Foreign Currency Currency 27.97% 27.97% Fixed Fixed Income Income 15.91% 15.91% Int'l Int'l Equities Equities 12.96% 12.96%
Allocation Allocation Allocation AllocationAllocation Allocation Currency Currency Currency Currency -4.58% -4.58% Foreign Foreign -8.70% -8.70% US US -7.72% -7.72% 14.93% 14.93% 6.27% 6.27%
Commod. Commod. -27.05% -27.05% Strategic Strategic Allocation Allocation -28.89% -28.89% USUS Equities Equities -37.81% -37.81% Int'l Int'l Equities Equities -43.48% -43.48%
DWA6040 DWA6040 14.37% 14.37% Foreign Foreign Currency Currency 8.93% 8.93% Money Money Market Market 0.21% 0.21% Fixed Fixed Income Income -0.48% -0.48%
Currency Currency Equities Equities DWA6040 DWA6040 Commod. Commod. DWA6040 DWA6040 DWA6040 DWA6040 -6.65% -6.65% US US -11.77% -11.77% -13.13% -13.13% Int'l Int'l 11.32% 11.32% Money Money Market Market 0.98% 0.98% Fixed Fixed Income Income -0.67% -0.67% 5.32% 5.32% Money Money Market Market 1.40% 1.40% Fixed Fixed Income Income -0.39% -0.39% -1.96% -1.96% Fixed Fixed Income Income -2.04% -2.04% Foreign Foreign Currency Currency -7.99% -7.99%
Equities Commod. Commod. Equities Equities Equities -8.03% -8.03% Int'l Int'l -17.18% -14.95% -14.95% -17.18% Int'l Int'l US US
Commod. Commod. -9.20% -9.20% Int'l Int'l Equities Equities -16.07% -16.07%
Equities Equities Equities Equities Equities Equities -15.31% -19.73% -22.53% -15.31% -19.73% -22.53% Legend: Legend:
Money Market Money Market Fixed Income Fixed Income Foreign Currency Foreign Currency Commodity Commodity International Equities International Equities US Equities US Equities
Tactical Allocation Inventory Tactical Allocation Inventory DWA Money Market (MNYMKT) DWA Money Market (MNYMKT) Vanguard Total Bond Fund (BND) Vanguard Total Bond Fund (BND) DWA Foreign Currency Index (DWAFXI) DWA Greenhaven Foreign Currency Index (DWAFXI) Commodity Fund (GCC) Greenhaven Commodity Fund (GCC) SPDR MSCI ACWIsm ex-US ETF (CWI) SPDRiShares MSCI ACWIsm ex-US ETF (CWI) S&P 1500 Index (ISI) iShares S&P 1500 Index (ISI)
Strategic Allocation Inventory Strategic Allocation Inventory Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)* Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)* Vanguard MSCI EAFE ETF (VEA) Vanguard MSCI EAFE ETF (VEA) Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ)* Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ)* iPath Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index ETN (DJP) iPath Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index ETN (DJP) Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Weighting Weighting 26.70% 26.70% 19.40% 19.40% 10.40% 10.40% 7.30% 7.30% 6.20% 6.20% 30.00% 30.00%
DWA 6040 Index (DWA6040) represents a daily rebalanced index of 60% S&P 500 Index (SPX) and 40% Vanguard Total Bond Index (BND) DWA 6040 Index (DWA6040) represents a daily rebalanced index of 60% S&P 500 Index (SPX) and 40% Vanguard Total Bond Index (BND) * Prior to 2002, EUSA was substituted for VTI for hypothetical returns, and IYR was substituted for VNQ * Prior to 2002, EUSA was substituted for VTI for hypothetical returns, and IYR was substituted for VNQ
The majority of the trades in the iShares International Model were marginal versus the benchmark. However, notice the big winners to the right. Perhaps more importantly, the portfolio did not experience any big losers.
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ForFinancialProfessionalUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
Have a Vision
ForFinancialProfessionalUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
All through your lives I've told you to DARE TO DREAM. Imagination is another term for dreaming. It's also called vision. You know well, vision is what carried my company 25 years thus far. Imagine what you might do in this world. Think of your wildest dreams, and then make them happen. Mitch you have shifted gears giving up a great position at one of the most prestigious hotels in the world to follow your dream of culinary arts. As I write this you are getting ready to head to the subway for a grueling day in the kitchen with your instructors. But by fitting this piece into your dream puzzle the picture of your future becomes a little more clear and within reach. Thomas you have found your passion in the Billiards Industry. How will you change the world and your industry now that you clearly know your direction? Samantha you are slowly but surely beginning to focus on exactly what your passion is. You will shortly find a way to get someone to pay for you to live your passion of travel. To this day I imagine, dream, and think of what can be. Its never left me since I was a kid. I surround myself with people like Watson, Tammy, Sue, Jay, and the rest of the DWA crew. They keep me thinking, and imagining. Surround yourselves with these kinds of people. We live in the jungle of entrepreneurship, which means you must have vision, imagination and drive to do something special or you will end up on someone's dinner plate. Oh and keep the "F" word active in your vocabulary, FUN. Dad
TheHolevs.TheDrill
VS.
ForFinancialProfessionalUseOnly.NotForUseWithThePublic.
PaulBaiocchi,Moderator
ETFAnalyst,IndexUniverse
TomDorsey,Presenter
President &Founding Member Dorsey,Wright&Associates