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Demanda Agregada
y Oferta Agregada
Sesin 2
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
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Demanda Agregada
En una economa cerrada, la demanda agregada,
DA puede definirse como la cantidad total de
bienes y servicios que demandan los residentes
internos a un nivel determinado de precios de
mercado.
DA C I G
Donde:
C: Consumo
I: Inversin
G: Gasto de gobierno
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
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P1
P0
Y1
Poltica Macroeconmica
Y0
MAGP 03
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DA
Donde:
X: exportaciones
M: importaciones
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
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Oferta Agregada
La oferta agregada es el monto total del producto
que escogen proveer las firmas y las familias dado
el patrn de salarios y precios de la economa.
La funcin de produccin
Donde:
Y K , L, T
K: Capital
L: Trabajo
T: Tecnologa
MAGP 03
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Incremento del stock de capital
Y(K1>K0)
PML
PML(K1>K0)
K
Y(K0)
PML(K0)
L
La Funcin de
Produccin
Poltica Macroeconmica
L
Productividad Marginal
del Trabajo
MAGP 03
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W L
COSTO
Poltica Macroeconmica
P Y
UNIDAD
EXTRA
DE PRODUCTO
W
P
Y
L
MAGP 03
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Tenemos la demanda por trabajo
w, PML
Empresas contratan hasta que:
(W/P)A=wA
(W/P)B=wB
PML=LD
LA
Poltica Macroeconmica
W
P
W
P
Y
L
dY
dL
LB
MAGP 03
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L w, K , T
OA OA LD w, K T , K , T
OA OA w, K , T
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
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Oferta de Trabajo
Decisin entre TRABAJO y OCIO:
UL UL C , L
menor utilidad
LS
La curva de oferta de
trabajo
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
esan
2013
Var.porcentual
Ene-13 /
Ene.
Feb.
Mar.
Abr.
May.
Jun.
Jul.
Ago.
Set.
Oct.
Nov.
Dic.
Ene.
Ene-12
PEA
4 810
4 810
4 886
4 766
4 775
4 749
4 909
4 728
4 846
4 815
4 861
4 840
4 761
-1.0
PEA OCUPADA
Por edad
14 a 24 aos
25 a 44 aos
45 a ms aos
Por categora ocupacional
Independiente
Dependiente
Trabajador no remunerado
Por tamao de empresa
De 1 a 10 trabajadores
De 11 a 50 trabajadores
De 51 y ms
4 367
4 433
4 449
4 414
4 522
4 454
4 561
4 412
4 553
4 527
4 584
4 589
4 403
0.8
981
2 270
1 116
1 045
2 323
1 065
966
2 388
1 095
924
2 359
1 131
1 028
2 437
1 057
954
2 396
1 103
1 003
2 416
1 142
942
2 399
1 071
993
2 449
1 111
988
2 430
1 108
1 003
2 454
1 127
1 059
2 446
1 083
954
2 361
1 088
-2.7
4.0
-2.5
1 453
2 664
251
1 415
2 795
224
1 473
2 786
190
1 507
2 718
189
1 441
2 856
224
1 401
2 854
198
1 467
2 928
166
1 381
2 827
203
1 453
2 906
194
1 494
2 859
173
1 496
2 903
185
1 405
3 000
184
1 403
2 749
251
-3.4
3.2
0.1
2 688
470
1 209
2 673
443
1 318
2 605
450
1 394
2 722
450
1 242
2 701
533
1 288
2 602
442
1 410
2 741
478
1 342
2 596
506
1 310
2 690
489
1 374
2 721
504
1 302
2 734
490
1 359
2 710
546
1 332
2 655
424
1 325
-1.2
-9.9
9.6
2 645
1 722
2 635
1 798
2 777
1 672
2 447
1 967
2 543
1 979
2 705
1 749
2 637
1 924
2 548
1 864
2 649
1 904
2 694
1 832
2 800
1 785
2 848
1 741
2 536
1 867
-4.1
8.4
9.2
7.8
8.9
7.4
5.3
6.2
7.1
6.7
6.0
6.0
5.7
5.2
7.5
7.2
11.5
5.4
10.6
7.8
10.4
5.6
9.6
4.3
6.5
5.2
7.5
5.4
9.2
5.6
8.0
4.7
7.7
4.5
7.8
5.0
6.6
3.6
7.1
5.9
9.5
16.3
7.9
4.9
16.1
5.4
3.8
17.5
6.5
5.6
13.2
6.8
3.4
10.8
3.7
3.1
12.8
4.1
4.7
13.6
6.1
2.9
12.9
5.4
3.6
12.6
4.2
3.6
12.3
4.6
2.8
13.1
3.5
3.2
10.5
4.0
2.3
17.2
5.0
3.2
63.2
1,408
64.1
1,357
64.2
1,421
63.6
1,350
65.1
1,292
64.0
1,418
65.4
1,382
63.2
1,400
65.1
1,397
64.6
1,391
65.4
1,437
65.3
1,384
62.6
1,418
Poltica Macroeconmica
Fuente: BCRP, Nota Semanal Cuadro 73, Marzo 2013
MAGP 03
0.7
esan
Ago.
Set.
2011
Oct.
Nov.
Dic.
Ene.
Feb.
Mar.
Abr.
2012
102.51
103.61
99.18
107.26
106.79
94.17
103.87
95.64
93.63
97.46
108.24
68.05
105.06
85.32
99.16
91.44
111.91
84.47
103.12
103.52
118.14
113.80
103.28
97.79
100.87
100.49
115.71
104.64
110.08
99.81
99.26
99.90
103.78
104.11
102.69
103.48
106.74
105.60
104.90
95.93
93.11
101.23
98.99
81.31
105.68
81.81
94.30
103.68
112.84
96.60
102.91
80.77
120.37
107.73
117.92
98.95
107.87
107.26
117.67
105.60
109.35
97.23
102.06
102.64
105.23
105.24
105.06
104.84
107.68
110.08
108.03
95.84
95.98
104.69
104.15
85.83
101.14
82.08
102.97
105.49
113.56
102.89
103.47
108.46
113.64
112.30
114.70
99.15
103.49
116.75
120.26
102.51
111.86
104.27
106.29
102.90
105.80
106.02
105.01
108.46
107.65
110.42
110.27
97.12
96.55
105.27
104.66
82.15
102.60
82.08
103.94
105.65
112.35
100.71
104.28
109.12
102.93
109.48
115.58
99.99
94.38
119.18
120.52
107.03
107.71
105.26
109.21
102.47
106.86
106.91
106.56
107.78
108.44
109.54
110.49
98.09
93.11
108.23
113.83
74.93
106.45
84.51
106.48
105.30
114.69
109.51
104.12
109.79
108.59
108.78
115.66
100.64
100.59
120.09
120.05
107.31
106.80
105.46
109.90
102.47
101.62
102.95
97.66
100.81
103.46
88.25
103.13
93.68
91.38
100.68
106.21
65.57
99.34
67.77
96.33
76.95
107.59
104.76
101.34
63.83
102.61
96.69
91.69
97.86
84.90
85.90
113.09
98.61
103.08
101.24
101.82
92.81
100.55
102.37
95.13
91.55
102.51
79.85
101.25
91.27
89.27
97.97
103.07
60.64
99.29
67.77
94.40
82.62
98.97
95.81
101.50
74.97
100.23
92.10
91.07
97.05
84.79
90.28
109.87
99.35
101.72
99.61
99.14
89.01
101.81
104.21
94.74
67.61
103.89
85.70
104.16
94.26
91.47
101.02
104.56
61.14
98.82
69.36
90.62
90.80
102.47
76.97
101.21
89.96
96.33
91.36
88.49
93.86
84.41
97.43
115.32
106.73
103.60
99.82
102.38
91.95
103.90
105.83
97.71
77.14
107.63
109.18
109.87
94.26
94.48
104.51
109.37
63.46
102.03
77.14
95.74
107.36
106.65
75.46
101.81
91.81
98.34
101.31
87.46
95.86
86.19
109.49
116.12
108.86
102.02
104.30
105.09
100.35
Poltica Macroeconmica
Fuente: BCRP, Nota Semanal Cuadro 72, Marzo 2013
May.
105.39
107.05
99.93
101.00
108.42
113.42
113.93
92.59
95.08
106.15
109.28
67.46
107.33
73.94
104.69
110.82
109.97
76.14
102.66
108.11
99.63
100.64
88.30
98.99
98.88
122.27
111.92
109.27
102.42
109.26
107.83
102.18
Jun.
106.58
108.15
101.38
106.38
109.93
113.68
115.12
93.43
98.86
105.70
110.61
68.60
108.93
74.21
106.65
111.34
112.89
81.35
103.60
106.53
105.54
96.49
91.78
100.88
95.55
127.93
112.86
109.41
103.30
110.30
107.20
103.61
Jul. 3/
107.10
108.52
102.35
106.28
110.65
114.62
113.43
95.84
100.67
107.10
111.28
68.19
110.76
76.39
106.79
113.29
115.22
85.83
103.93
112.81
100.90
100.76
96.77
100.59
95.85
130.37
114.39
109.89
102.87
109.53
105.88
103.39
Ago.
3/
106.94
108.19
102.67
106.09
111.67
104.47
112.63
97.43
103.68
106.29
107.41
70.45
109.94
73.97
105.63
102.08
113.65
86.15
103.24
113.34
102.16
105.40
106.12
100.34
96.31
114.66
131.04
104.96
102.19
109.50
105.01
104.20
Var.porcentual
Ago-12/ Ene-ago 12/
Ago-11 Ene-ago 11
4.3
4.4
3.5
-1.1
4.6
10.9
8.4
1.9
10.7
9.1
-0.8
3.5
4.6
-13.3
6.5
11.6
1.6
2.0
0.1
9.5
-13.5
-7.4
2.8
2.6
-4.5
14.1
13.2
0.3
-7.2
9.7
5.8
4.3
MAGP 03
3.9
4.2
3.0
5.7
3.8
5.3
9.2
-0.7
1.6
5.2
2.7
-9.7
4.6
-13.7
5.3
9.2
3.7
6.0
1.0
6.0
-11.4
0.7
1.4
-0.4
-2.8
11.4
2.2
4.4
-2.5
8.2
7.2
2.1
esan
Y
Yf
Y(K0,L)
P
OA
(iii)
L
w=(W/P)
LS
Yf
wf
(ii)
MAGP 03
esan
Como funciona?
Al subir P , un exceso de demanda en el mercado
laboral, como los salarios son flexibles, el salario
nominal subir en el mismo monto que el nivel de
precio, de esta manera el salario real no se vera alterado
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
esan
OAu
OAf
Yu
w
wu
LS
Yu
Yf
wf
LD
LD
Poltica Macroeconmica
Lf
LS
L
u
MAGP 03
esan
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
esan
OA OA w, K , T
W
salario fijo
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
esan
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
esan
Y
P
Pf
P1
Yf
Y1
L1
Lf
U1
OA
Y1 Yf
LS
wf=(W/P)f
w1=(W/P)1
LD
L1
Poltica Macroeconmica
Lf
L
MAGP 03
esan
Si la funcin de produccin es Y
aL , donde:
Si (W/P)>a
Si (W/P)<a
MAGP 03
esan
OA
P1
P0
DA1
DA0
Y
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
esan
Caso Keynesiano
D => aumento del producto y empleo a la vez aumento de
precios
P
OA
P1
P0
DA1
DA0
Y
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
esan
Caso Keynesiano extremo
P0
OA
DA1
DA0
Y
Poltica Macroeconmica
MAGP 03
esan
Avance Tecnolgico
P
OA0
OA1
OA0
OA1
Y
Caso Clsico
Poltica Macroeconmica
Y
Caso Keynesiano
MAGP 03
esan
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
118.7 117.1 118.0 117.5 117.0 117.5 117.8 119.2 119.9 122.4 127.1 120.4 122.8
105.4 102.3 101.9 101.8 100.7
99.6
96.4
94.1
91.3
93.3
99.8
96.4
97.1
71.4
10.4
23.6
23.5
19.0
4.4
0.1
70.4
10.8
21.1
21.7
16.9
4.8
-0.6
71.2
10.6
20.2
20.2
16.3
4.0
0.0
72.3
10.7
18.8
18.6
15.5
3.1
0.2
72.1
10.1
18.4
17.6
14.8
2.8
0.8
70.9
10.3
18.4
17.8
15.0
2.8
0.6
68.4
10.0
17.9
17.9
15.1
2.8
0.0
66.1
10.1
17.9
18.4
15.5
2.9
-0.5
61.8
9.5
20.0
19.5
16.4
3.1
0.6
61.5
9.0
22.8
21.5
18.2
3.4
1.3
64.0
9.0
26.9
25.9
21.5
4.3
1.0
65.4
10.3
20.7
22.9
17.7
5.2
-2.1
61.9
10.2
25.0
25.1
19.2
5.9
-0.1
13.3
14.8
16.0
15.8
16.4
17.8
21.5
25.1
28.5
29.1
27.3
24.0
25.7
118.7 117.1 118.0 117.5 117.0 117.5 117.8 119.2 119.9 122.4 127.1 120.4 122.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
18.7
17.1
18.0
17.5
17.0
Poltica Macroeconmica
Fuente: BCRP, Cuadros Anuales Histricos, Cuadro 4
17.5
17.8
19.2
19.9
22.4
27.1
20.4
MAGP 03
22.8
esan
Per:
Oferta y Demanda Agregada (Crecimiento %)
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-0.2
-1.8
3.1
0.6
4.6
4.1
5.6
7.4
8.6
10.9
11.6
-2.8
11.2
1. Demanda Interna
-0.9
-3.1
2.3
-0.4
4.1
3.7
3.8
5.8
10.3
11.8
12.3
-2.8
12.8
-0.9
2.5
-2.3
-1.5
-2.4
2.4
-0.4
3.5
-13.6
-10.6
-15.2
10.3
3.7
3.1
-2.7
-4.9
-1.7
-15.8
1.5
-0.8
-7.1
-8.2
-4.7
-22.4
4.9
0.0
2.9
-0.5
0.2
-4.1
3.4
4.0
4.7
5.9
6.3
3.9
3.6
4.6
4.3
7.8
8.1
6.1
4.6
8.5
9.2
12.3
12.0
13.8
6.4
7.6
26.5
20.2
20.1
20.7
8.3
4.5
25.8
22.6
23.3
18.9
8.7
2.1
25.8
27.1
25.9
33.6
2.4
16.5
-20.6
-9.2
-15.1
21.2
6.0
10.6
34.8
23.2
22.1
27.3
5.6
7.6
8.0
6.8
7.5
6.2
15.2
15.2
0.8
6.9
8.2
-3.2
2.5
-0.2
-1.8
3.1
0.6
4.6
4.1
5.6
7.4
8.6
10.9
11.6
-2.8
11.2
-0.7
0.9
3.0
0.2
5.0
4.0
5.0
6.8
7.7
8.9
9.8
0.9
8.8
2.3
-15.2
3.8
2.9
2.3
4.2
9.6
10.9
13.1
21.4
20.1
-18.6
23.8
a. Consumo privado
b. Consumo pblico
c. Inversin bruta interna
Inversin bruta fija
- Privada
- Pblica
2. Exportaciones
OFERTA GLOBAL (3+4)
3. Producto Bruto Interno
4. Importaciones
Poltica Macroeconmica
Fuente: BCRP, Cuadros Anuales Histricos, Cuadro 5
MAGP 03
esan
Per:
Oferta y Demanda Agregada (Crecimiento %)
I
2010
II
III
IV AO
2011
II
III
IV AO
I. Demanda interna
a. Consumo privado
b. Consumo pblico
c. Inversin bruta interna
Inversin bruta fija
i. Privada
ii. Pblica
8.7
5.4
14.1
17.2
12.7
11.5
19.9
14.4
5.8
12.5
45.1
29.5
24.5
51.2
15.5
6.2
9.1
46.4
27.5
28.6
23.5
13.6
6.5
5.9
36.0
23.2
24.2
20.9
13.1
6.0
10.0
36.3
23.2
22.1
27.3
II. Exportaciones 2/
-0.8
-1.2
5.5
1.4
1.3
4.2 14.1
9.5
7.4
8.8 19.4
Menos:
III. Importaciones 2/
3.9
5.5
9.8 10.2
6.1 15.2
9.9 10.4
6.7
5.5
6.9
6.4
5.9
IV. PBI
6.2 10.0
9.6
9.2
8.8
IV AO
2012
III
II
8.8
Poltica Macroeconmica
Fuente: BCRP, Nota Semanal Cuadro 82, Marzo 2013
6.9
6.0
-0.6
1.1
6.8
1.2
MAGP 03
4.8
6.3