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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report


Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Highlights
US Empire State Manufacturing Index declined to 3.1-mark in April. India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 5.96 percent in March US TIC Long-Term Purchases declined by $17.8 billion in February. Asian markets are trading lower on the back of expectations that slower growth in China will curb the global economic growth. US Empire State Manufacturing Index declined by 6.1 points to 3.1-mark in April as against a rise of 9.2-level in March. Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Purchases declined by $17.8 billion in February from rise of $25.7 billion a month ago. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index fell by 2 points to 42-mark in April as compared to 44-level in March. India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 5.96 percent in March from previous rise of 6.84 percent in February. WPI fuel price index fell to 10.18 percent in last month as against a rise of 10.5 percent in February. WPI food price index dropped to 8.73 percent in March as compared to rise of 11.4 percent a month ago. WPI manufacturing inflation decreased to 4.07 percent in March with respect to 4.51 percent in February.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5568.4 18357.8 14599.2 1552.4 15629.0 1920.5 58497.8 13275.7 88.71 1360.60 2335.50 7280.75 102.09 Prev. day 0.7 0.6 -1.8 -2.3 -1.0 -0.2 0.2 -1.6 -2.8 -9.4 -11.3 -2.0 0.0

as on April 15, 2013 WoW 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.7 2.5 0.1 6.2 -0.1 -5.0 -14.2 -13.9 -2.6 0.7 MoM -4.6 -4.8 1.0 -0.5 -1.9 -2.9 3.8 7.6 -5.4 -15.6 -19.0 -7.2 0.4 YoY 6.5 0.4 13.6 13.3 8.8 -1.3 -5.6 37.7 -13.7 -18.0 -25.6 -9.1 -0.1

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from US also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a negative note which also acted as a positive factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 82.545 and closed at 82.51 on Monday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.51 54.54 54.70 54.71 Prev. day 0.1 -0.1 0.03 0.04 WoW -0.4 0.1 -0.12 -0.10

as on April 15, 2013 MoM 0.3 -0.9 0.93 0.95 YoY 3.8 -5.5 6.19 6.20

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from importers and banks. Additionally, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of positive whole prices index (WPI) data along with upbeat domestic market sentiments. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.79 and closed at 54.54 against dollar on Monday. For the month of April 2013, FII intflows totaled at Rs.51.20 crores th ($9.98 million) as on 15 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.55,673.50 crores ($10,320.10 million) till 15 April 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned as a result of WPI data coming on a positive note in yesterdays trade.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for April 16, 2013 Support 54.50/54.30 Resistance 54.85/54.98

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Currencies Daily Report


Tuesday| April 16, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. However, favorable economic data from Euro zone cushioned sharp decline in the currency. European Trade Balance was at a surplus of 12 billion Euros in February as against a surplus of 9 billion Euros a month ago. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.302 and closed at 1.3034 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further expectation of negative economic data from Europe may add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.20/71.00 71.70/71.95 valid for April 16, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3034 71.10 71.5 71.5 Prev. day -0.6 0.6 0.15 0.15

as on April 15, 2013 WoW 0.2 -0.2 0.21 0.19 MoM 0.6 -1.4 1.25 0.98 YoY -0.3 -5.3 5.40 5.40

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.38 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments. Further strength in the DX added downside pressure on the currency. However, rise in the Rightmove HPI data prevented sharp depreciation in the sterling pound. UKs Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) increased by 2.1 percent in April as against a rise of 1.7 percent in March. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5268 and closed at 1.5283 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Further, strength in DX may exert downside pressure on the currency. Investors will keep an eye on inflation data from country. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 16, 2013 Support 83.60/83.30 Resistance 84.10/84.40

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5283 83.439 83.81 Prev. day -0.38 -0.430 -0.25

as on April 15, 2013

WoW 0.2 0.20 0.04

MoM 1.2 2.19 2.02

YoY -3.6 2.16 2.11

83.81

-0.25

0.03

2.03

2.12

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report


Tuesday| April 16, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 1.7 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, positive industrial production data also supported an upside in the currency. Japans Revised Industrial Production increased by 0.6 percent in February as against a decline of 0.1 percent a month ago. The Yen touched an intraday high of 96.34 and closed at 96.75 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 16, 2013 Support 55.70/55.40 Resistance 56.40/56.70

JPY (% change)
Last 96.75 0.5635 55.99 55.99 Prev day -1.7 1.53 1.52 1.51

as on April 15, 2013 WoW -2.6 2.59 0.76 0.76 MoM 1.6 -0.63 -0.83 -0.83 YoY 19.6 -11.54 -11.89 -11.90

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on April 16, 2013


Indicator CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y German ZEW Economic Sentiment CPI y/y Core CPI y/y ZEW Economic Sentiment BOE Inflation Letter Building Permits Core CPI m/m CPI m/m Housing Starts ECB President Draghi Speaks Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Country UK UK UK Europe Europe Europe Europe UK US US US US Europe US US US Time (IST) 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 2.8% -0.3% 3.3% 41.5 1.7% 1.4% 31.5 0.94M 0.2% 0.0% 0.93M 78.4% 0.3% Previous 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 48.5 1.7% 1.3% 33.4 0.94M 0.2% 0.7% 0.92M 79.6% 0.7% Impact High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium

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