Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Empire State Manufacturing Index declined to 3.1-mark in April. India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 5.96 percent in March US TIC Long-Term Purchases declined by $17.8 billion in February. Indian gold imports declined by almost 24 percent in the first quarter Asian markets are trading lower on the back of expectations that slower growth in China will curb the global economic growth. US Empire State Manufacturing Index declined by 6.1 points to 3.1-mark in April as against a rise of 9.2-level in March. Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Purchases declined by $17.8 billion in February from rise of $25.7 billion a month ago. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index fell by 2 points to 42-mark in April as compared to 44-level in March. India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 5.96 percent in March from previous rise of 6.84 percent in February. WPI fuel price index fell to 10.18 percent in last month as against a rise of 10.5 percent in February. WPI food price index dropped to 8.73 percent in March as compared to rise of 11.4 percent a month ago. WPI manufacturing inflation decreased to 4.07 percent in March with respect to 4.51 percent in February. The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from US also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a negative note which also acted as a positive factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 82.545 and closed at 82.51 on Monday. The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from importers and banks. Additionally, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of positive whole prices index (WPI) data along with upbeat domestic market sentiments. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.79 and closed at 54.54 against dollar on Monday. For the month of April 2013, FII intflows totaled at Rs.51.20 crores ($9.98 th million) as on 15 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood th at Rs.55,673.50 crores ($10,320.10 million) till 15 April 2013. Indian gold imports declined by almost 24 percent in the first quarter of 2013. India imported 200 tonnes of gold.
$/Euro (Spot) 1.3034 -0.6 0.2 0.6 -0.3

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.54 Prev day -0.1

as on 15 April, 2013 w-o-w 0.1 m-o-m -0.9 y-o-y -5.5

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.51

0.1

-0.4

0.3

3.8

5568.4

0.7

0.5

-4.6

6.5

SENSEX

18357.8

0.6

-0.4

-4.8

0.4

DJIA

14599.2

-1.8

-0.1

1.0

13.6

S&P

1552.4

-2.3

-0.7

-0.5

13.3

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. However, favorable economic data from Euro zone cushioned sharp decline in the currency. European Trade Balance was at a surplus of 12 billion Euros in February as against a surplus of 9 billion Euros a month ago. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.302 and closed at 1.3034 against dollar on Monday. UKs Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) increased by 2.1 percent in April as against a rise of 1.7 percent in March. Japans Revised Industrial Production increased by 0.6 percent in February as against a decline of 0.1 percent a month ago.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices declined by 8.5 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of strength in DX coupled with weak global market sentiments. Further, Worries among the investors that central banks from Europe may sell gold added downside pressure. Additionally, weak economic data from china exerted downside pressure. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1336.04/oz and closed at $1352.8/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on negative note in the yesterday trading session and closed at Rs.25634/10 gms after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 25450/10 gms on Monday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1352.8 26400.0 Prev. day -8.5 -8.2 as on 15 April, 2013 WoW -14.0 -10.1 MoM -15.7 -10.6 YoY -18.4 -7.9

1395.0

-9.2

-11.4

-13.0

-16.3

$/oz

1360.6

-9.4

-14.2

-15.6

-18.0

Rs /10 gms

25634.0

-9.0

-13.2

-13.2

-10.3

Silver
Taking cues from decline in spot gold prices along with downside in the base metals pack, Spot silver prices fell by 12.6 percent in the yesterdays trading session. Further strength in the dollar index coupled with weak global market sentiments added downside pressure. Additionally, weak economic data from china and US acted as a negative factor. The white metal prices touched an intra-day low of $22.54 /oz and closed at $22.58/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices decreased by 10.2 percent taking cues from spot silver prices and closed at Rs. 44378/kg after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 43522/kg on Monday. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 22.6 47100.0 Prev day -12.6 -10.1

Source: Reuters

as on 15 April, 2013 WoW -17.1 -10.2 MoM -21.7 -14.0 YoY -28.2 -17.5

$/oz $/ oz

2354.0 2335.5

-14.1 -11.3

-13.7 -13.9

-18.3 -19.0

-27.3 -25.6

Rs / kg

44378.0

-10.2

-13.3

-18.3

-20.5

Source: Reuters

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative side on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, worries among the investors that other European nations may have to sell their gold holdings may exert downside pressure. Additionally, weak economic data from China and US in the yesterdays trading session may also add downside pressure. Expectation of weak economic data from Europe may act as a negative factor. In the Indian markets sharp fall in the prices may be cushioned on the back of depreciation in the Indian rupee. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for April 16, 2013 Support 1321/1300 25200/24800 22.17/21.92 43500/43000 Resistance 1353/1363 25800/26000 22.84/23.09 44800/45300

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

International Commodities
Energy
Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
as on 15 April, 2013 WoW -4.9 -3.7 -5.0 MoM -5.3 -8.4 -5.4 YoY -13.7 -17.0 -13.7

Crude Oil
Crude Oil Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 88.8 100.5 88.7

Nymex crude oil prices declined around 2.8 percent yesterday taking cues from slow Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in China which led to expectations of decline in demand for the fuel. Further, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments also acted as negative factor for the oil prices. Strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the crude prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $87.20/bbl and closed at $88.71/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices fell by percent and closed at Rs 4844./bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.4792/bbl on Monday. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to th rise by 1.4 million barrels for the week ending on 12 April 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to decline by 0.8 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to fall by 0.3 million barrels for the same week. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, forecast for rise in US crude oil inventories from API will exert downside pressure on the prices. Further, expectations of unfavorable economic data from US and Euro Zone will act as a negative factor for the oil prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will cushion sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude April 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for April 16, 2013 Support 85.50/84.90 4770/4740 Resistance 87.80/88.70 4900/4950

WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (April 13)

Prev. day -2.7 -1.2 -2.8

$/bbl

100.4

-2.6

-4.1

-8.3

-17.6

Rs/bbl

4844.0

-2.8

-4.9

-4.2

-8.8
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (April 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.117 226.9 Prev. day -3.4 -1.9

as on 15 April, 2013

WoW 1.06 1.98

MoM 6.60 8.72

YoY 106.68 120.08

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The Base metal pack traded on the negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with the Strength in DX. Further, Chinas GDP grew at a slower pace at 7.7 percent in the first quarter of 2013 increased the worries over decline in base metal demand. Additionally, decline i n Chinas Industrial production; fall in Chinas Fixed Asset Investment along with the unfavourable economic data from US added downside pressure. In the Indian markets sharp decline in the prices was cushioned on the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel (3 month) $/tonne 15720.0 -0.9 -2.6 -5.5 -14.2 Rs /kg 101.1 0.8 -1.4 -2.0 -4.4 $/tonne 1876.0 1.1 -0.8 -3.1 -9.4 Rs/kg 396.1 -2.1 -2.9 -4.0 -4.3 $/tonne Last 7280.8 Prev. day -2.0 as on 15 April, 2013 WoW -2.6 MoM -7.2 YoY -9.1

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack decreased by 2.0 on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further weak economic data from china and US increased the worries that the demand for copper may go down. Additionally, LME inventories increased by 3 percent to 611,175 also added downside pressure. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $7085/tonne and closed at $7280.8/tonne yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices ended on negative note and closed at Rs. 396.1/kg on Monday after touching an intra-day low of Rs 386.6 kg. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, weak economic data from China and US in the yesterdays trading session may also add downside pressure. Additionally, expectation of unfavourable economic data from Europe and US will act as a negative factor. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp downside in the prices. Technical Outlook
MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for April 16, 2013 Support 388/383 99.5/98.5 109.5/108.5 100/99 845/835 Resistance 398/401 101.5/102.5 111.5/112.5 102/103 865/875

MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)

Rs /kg

855.0

-1.2

-3.0

-4.7

-9.5

$/tonne

2041.5

-0.1

-1.0

-6.2

-1.1

Rs /kg

110.7

-0.3

-1.3

-5.6

3.8

$/tonne

1870.3

0.0

-1.3

-2.6

-6.1

Rs /kg

100.8

-0.1

-1.9

-1.8

-2.1

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 15th April 611,175 5,192,325 168,762 1,131,475 259,025 12th April 593,650 5,194,750 169,386 1,136,050 259,375 Actual Change 17,525 -2,425 -624 -4,575 -350 (%) Change 3.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 16, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y German ZEW Economic Sentiment CPI y/y Core CPI y/y ZEW Economic Sentiment BOE Inflation Letter Building Permits Core CPI m/m CPI m/m Housing Starts ECB President Draghi Speaks Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Country UK UK UK Europe Europe Europe Europe UK US US US US Europe US US US Time (IST) 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 2.8% -0.3% 3.3% 41.5 1.7% 1.4% 31.5 0.94M 0.2% 0.0% 0.93M 78.4% 0.3% Previous 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 48.5 1.7% 1.3% 33.4 0.94M 0.2% 0.7% 0.92M 79.6% 0.7% Impact High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium

www.angelcommodities.com