Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 5

April 17, 2013

Equity Market Review

Kevin Lane Email:

Phone: 1-212-661-2022 klane@fusioninvest.com

Market Outlook
The depth of the recent sell-off, coupled with the horrific and cowardly Boston Marathon bombing, seems to have shaken the confidence of the bulls a bit. The next few days will be important in regards to near term direction. We do not want to see yesterdays lows violated as it will suggest, at least temporarily, buying power is exhausted. In our opinion, especially with the historically weaker month of May rapidly approaching, the market needs to rebound and recapture lost ground very soon otherwise, the long awaited correction may be at hand. Anecdotal sentiment, which had the pendulum stuck on skeptical for most of this rally, seems to have taken a bit of a swing back to the complacency of late. We even note the title of our last market note, Teflon Market as first hand evidence on the subtle comfort the upward market action has given us all. Market breadth, which has improved, has started to deteriorate again, and now looks more like a bump form short covering than a continuation of the durable and strong breadth seen earlier in the advance. We still believe any setbacks on a trend break will be shallow (5% - 10%), however depending on your personal investing/trading style, time horizon and risk tolerance a mild correction to one, maybe deep to another. Clearly, day and swing traders live in a different world than professional PMs and longer-term investors. That said below we will look at various key levels and indicators to look at how the current picture sets up.

Fusion Analytics Research Partners LLC 2013 All Rights Reserved

April 17, 2013

Equity Market Review

S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Daily Chart


The S&P 500 is still holding above trend (red band), a support zone in the 1,540 1,530 area (green band) and its 50 day moving average (blue line). Mondays sell off was followed by a bounce back Tuesday, however the jury is still out as to whether it was enough. A move below yesterdays low would intact since Dec 12. The linezone in the sand however between corralling this Newviolate high the in uptren S&P d 500 and new support in the 1,540 -1,530 area. recent pullback and a further correction is the aforementioned support zone.

Fusion Analytics Research Partners LLC 2013 All Rights Reserved

April 17, 2013

Equity Market Review

All U.S. Exchanges New Highs-New Lows Index - Daily Chart

The strong surge back up in new highs, just a few days back, has rapidly deteriorated back below the zero line (red circle). This surge and collapse illustrates fast money and short covering at work, and makes us suspect the quality of the aforementioned S&P 500 trend and support levels.

Fusion Analytics Research Partners LLC 2013 All Rights Reserved

April 17, 2013

Equity Market Review

S&P 500 (SPX) vs. S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPW) - Daily Chart

When the 21 day moving average (green line) of the SPX/SPW is below the 50 day (purple line) and both are trending down markets typically do well as it suggest more stocks are participating in the move, as opposed to a narrow swath of heavily weighted components. While these conditions presently exist, this ratio could see a reversion soon.

Fusion Analytics Research Partners LLC 2013 All Rights Reserved

April 17, 2013

Equity Market Review

Important Disclosures

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. All market prices, data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Fusion Holdings LLC, its subsidiaries and affiliates. This transmission may contain information that is privileged, confidential, legally privileged, and/or exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the information contained herein (including any reliance thereon) is STRICTLY PROHIBITED. Although this transmission and any attachments are believed to be free of any virus or other defect that might affect any computer system into which it is received and opened, it is the responsibility of the recipient to ensure that it is virus free and no responsibility is accepted by Fusion Holdings LLC., its subsidiaries and affiliates, as applicable, for any loss or damage arising in any way from its use. If you received this transmission in error, please immediately contact the sender and destroy the material in its entirety, whether in electronic or hard copy format.

Fusion Analytics Research Partners LLC (FARP) is not registered as an investment adviser with the SEC or any state securities agency. Rather, FARP relies upon the publishers exclusion from the definition of investment adviser as provided under Section 202(a)(11) of the Inve stment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. The site content and services offered thereon are bona fide publications of general and regular circulation offering impersonalized investment-related information to users and/or prospective users (e.g., not tailored to the specific investment needs of current and/or prospective users). To the extent any of the content published as part of the site or services offered thereon may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Past Performance is not guarantee of future performance. This is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell a security, the information herein is presented for informational purposes only. Podesta & Co., an SEC registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, is located at 208 S. LaSalle St. , Chicago, IL 60604 (tel: 312-899- 0133). Podesta & Co. does not make a market in the shares of, nor provide investment banking services to, the subject of this report.

Fusion Analytics Research Partners LLC 2013 All Rights Reserved