Babe Ruths Batting Statistics and Einsteins Work Function

1. Summary
An analysis of the game-by-game batting logs for Babe Ruths 1927 season (when he set the single season home run record) shows an interesting movement of the AB and Hits data along a series of parallels with the general equation y = hx + c. Here x is the number of At Bats (AB) and y is the number of Hits (H). The game-by-game batting logs reveal scores of (0, 0), (1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), and (4, 4) and also scores of (1, 0), (2, 1), (3, 2), (4, 3) and even (6, 5), and so on. Thus, the slope h = 1, the theoretical ideal batting average, and the intercept c = 0, -1, -2, etc. indicating the number of missed hits for each game. When the data is aggregated, on a monthly basis, the same linear law holds but the slope h < 1 and the intercept c can be either positive or negative, depending on the player. For Babe Ruth, the intercept c is negative (c < 0). For fellow Yankee Lou Gehrig, in the same 1927 season, the intercept c is positive (c > 0). Thus, for Ruth, the batting average BA = y/x = h + (c/x) increases with increasing AB. The theoretical maximum BA that a batter can achieve (if c < 0) is equal to the slope h of the AB-Hits graph when we consider monthly aggregated data for a season (or data over many seasons). Babe Ruths batting statistics also serves to illustrate the significance of the nonzero c in many other complex problems of interest to us. The nonzero c is like the work function conceived by Einstein, in 1905, to explain the photoelectric effect. In Einsteins law, the nonzero intercept tells us something about difficulty of producing an electron when light shines on the surface of a metal. Einsteins law also suggests a movement along parallels, for experiments with different metals. The nonzero c in baseball batting statistics is related to the missing hits, or the difficulty of producing a hit, or a home run (if y is taken as home runs). A similar work function applies to many other complex problems where large masses of (x, y) observations are being
Page | 1

made on a daily, monthly, quarterly, and annual basis. Some examples are financial data (profits and revenues of companies) or other performance related data (airline quality ratings), or fatality data (deaths due to traffic accident, guns, cancer, etc.).

2. Introduction
Everyone knows about Einstein and his famous equation E = mc2, even baseball fans. And, everyone knows about Babe Ruth, the legendary New York Yankee, even physicists who study Einsteins theory of relativity or Plancks quantum physics. Although we associate the theory of relativity, and E = mc2, published in 1905, with Einstein, it was Einsteins application of Plancks idea of an elementary energy quantum , to radiation in the form of light, that fetched him the Nobel Prize; see Refs. [1-9]. The work function W = ( K), or K = ( W), where K is the maximum kinetic energy of the electron produced when a stream of photons (particles of light) with energy strike the surface of a metal to eject an electron from within the metal surface; see also the discussion in Appendix 1. Okay, what has all this got to do with Babe Ruths batting average?

3. Babe Ruths game-by-game batting logs

Take a look at the graph that I have prepared in Figure 1 using Babe Ruth game-by-game batting logs for the 1927 season (see also Table 1), the season where Babe Ruth set the record of 60 home runs in a single season which held for 34 years, until it was broken by Roger Maris with a 61 in the 1961 season. Babe Ruth played a total of 151 games in this season (click here for the batting log and stats), between April 12, 1927 and October 1, 1927. In two of these games (on July 13 and July 26, 1927), Babe Ruth had the PERFECT single game batting average of BA = H/AB = 4/4 = 1. Also, in three games that same season (on July 4, July 29, and September 30, 1927), Babe Ruth scored (3, 3) for the perfect, single game, batting average of BA = H/AB = 3/3 = 1. This was also repeated on August 21, 1927 with a (1, 1) score for BA = H/AB = 1/1 = 1.

Page | 2

Table 1: Babe Ruths Batting Stats from the 1927 season

Data for individual months Cumulative at end of month Month At Bats Hits BA = At Bats Hits BA AB/H =AB/H April-27 51 17 0.333 51 17 0.333 May-27 106 37 0.349 157 54 0.344 June-27 76 29 0.382 233 83 0.356 July-27 111 47 0.423 344 130 0.378 Aug-27 90 23 0.256 434 153 0.353 Sep-27 103 39 0.379 537 192 0.358 Oct-27 3 0 540 192 0.356 Games played: April (15), May (28), June (23), July (31), August (26), September (27) and October (1). Total games equal 151.
6

Babe Ruth, 1927 Single season HR record (4, 4) (3, 3)

Number of Hits, y

(1, 1)
1

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 1: Babe Ruths game-by-game batting stats for the 1927 season when he set the single season record of 60 home runs (click here for 1927 batting logs)

Page | 3

In the game on July 9, 1927, Babe Ruths score was an almost PERFECT (6, 5) for a BA = H/AB = 5/6 = 0.833. In 6 At Bats, he missed only one Hit. There are many such games with one missed Hit (5, 4) and (4, 3) and (3, 2) and (2, 1) and also (1, 0). Then there are games with 2 missed hits, (5, 3), (4, 2) and so on. What we see here is a movement along a series of parallel lines with the general equation y = hx + c where the slope h equals the batting BA, now being considered on a game-by-game basis, and the intercept c is related to the number of missed hits. The general equation describing Babe Ruths batting performance is y = hx + c where h = BA = H/AB = 1 and the nonzero intercept c = 0, -1, -2 and so on depending on the number of missed hits. At this level of the game-by-game statistics, the BA = y/x = 1 + (c/x) and c = 0, -1, -2, etc.
8 7

Babe Ruth, 1927 y = hx + c = h(x x0)

y=x

Number of Hits, y

6 5

(4, 4)
4

y=x-2 (3, 3)

3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

(1, 1)

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 2: Babe Ruths game-by-game batting statistic for the 1927 season. The data falls on a series of parallels with the general equation y = hx + c with the slope h = H/AB = 1 and the intercept c = 0, -1, -2, and so on, with increasing missed hits in each game (click here for game-by-game batting logs).

Page | 4

The nonzero intercept c can thus be thought of as a work function for Babe Ruth. It tells us something about the difficulty of producing hits, or home runs and is analogous to the work function conceived by Einstein to explain the cut-off frequency observed in the photoelectric experiments. When the elementary energy < W, the work function, no electrons are produced. The work function of a metal tells us something about the difficulty of producing an electron when the photon, with energy , strikes the metal. Only a portion of this energy is transferred to the electron and appears as K. The remainder must be given up to do the work needed to overcome the forces binding the electron to the metal; see Appendix 1.
5

Number of Hits, y

Babe Ruth, 1935 y = hx + c = h(x x0)

(4, 4) y=x-1

y=x
2

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 3: Babe Ruths game-by-game batting statistic for his final 1935 season with only 72 At Bats and 13 Hits. Babe Ruth only played in April (25, 6) and May (47, 7). Although the BA = H/AB = 13/72 = 0.180 is very low (for May BA = 0.149 and for April BA = 0.24), the pattern here is the same as for the 1927 season (click here for game-by-game batting log for 1935). Notice that the batting logs include the data point (0, 0) for the game on April 29, 1935 vs. Phillies.
Page | 5

A similar diagram can also be prepared for Ruths final 1935 season, see Figure 3. We see the same movement along parallels. This is illustrated here since the batting stats for this final season are often ignored since Ruth played only for the months of April and May and so had a very low BA.

4. AB-Hits Diagrams for Babe Ruths batting stats

Further analysis of the game-by-game data for the 1927 season (see the monthly tally in Table 1) and his batting average for the games of the 1927 World Series, using the AB-Hits diagrams is illustrated in Figures 4 and 5.
250

200

Number of Hits, y

Babe Ruth, 1927 y = hx + c = h(x x0) BA = y/x = h + (c/x) = 0.362 (0.992/x)

150

100

50

0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 4a: The game-by-game data for Babe Ruths 1927 season can be aggregated on a monthly basis and the data can be analyzed in two different ways indicated in Table 1, and illustrated here using the AB-Hits diagram. The total for each month is prepared and analyzed separately giving the BA for each month. Alternatively, the cumulative batting average can be calculated by maintaining a running total for each month. April plus May, then April plus May plus June, and so on. The
Page | 6

cumulative monthly total is plotted here and reveals a nearly PERFECT linear relation of the type y = hx + c. The numerical values of the slope h and intercept c can be determined using linear regression analysis (method of least squares, see Refs.[10,11]). Thus, y = 0.362x 0.992 = 0.362(x 2.744), with a linear regression co-efficient r2 = 0.997. Hence, the BA = y/x = 0.362 (0.992/x) increases as the number of At Bats x increases. The negative intercept c (or positive intercept x0 = - c/h = 2.744) leads to the perception that the more Babe Ruth bats, the better his batting average. The maximum value of the BA is the slope h of this graph. Hence, BA is less than 0.362 for the 1927 season as a whole.

60

50

Number of Hits, y

40

Babe Ruth, 1927 y = hx + c = h(x x0) BA = y/x = h + (c/x) = 0.431 (6.587/x)

30

20

10

0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 4b: Babe Ruths monthly batting statistics for the 1927 season, the year of the 60 Home Runs record. Here we consider the individual monthly data. A nice linear relation is again observed, with the best-fit equation y = 0.431x 6.587 = 0.431 (x 15.279), with a linear regression co-efficient r2 = 0.782 . The October 1927 data point (3, 0) was excluded from the regression analysis. The negative intercept c = - 6.587
Page | 7

means that the BA = y/x = 0.431 (6.587/x) increases as the number of AB increases. The theoretical maximum value of the BA is the slope h = 0.431. For the 1927 season, Ruths BA = 0.356, with the October 1927 data and BA = 0.358 if it is excluded.

16

Babe Ruth World Series 1927 Number of Hits, y

12

y=x-2

y = 0.75x
8

y = 0.4x
4

0 0 4 8 12 16 20

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 5: Babe Ruths 1927 World Series Batting Average. The game by game scores were (4, 3) then (3, 0) followed by (4, 1) and (4, 2). The cumulative results are (4, 3), (7, 3), (11, 4) and (15, 6). Thus, the BA = H/AB decreased from a high value of BA = 0.75, dashed line with the highest slope, to its final value of BA = 0.4 at the end of the four games of this series (click here for game-by-game logs). The cumulative data however follows the more general law y = hx + c where the slope h and intercept c can be fixed by considering any two points, or using linear regression analysis. For that matter, such diagrams can be prepared for any baseball player. In other words, the law y = hx + c is a universal law associated with baseball
Page | 8

batting statistics. I have performed the same analysis before for other leading players like Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds while they were setting their records (which have since become tainted and taken on an asterisk * because of the doping scandals associated with these players but this should not distract us from our main discussion). The slope h is the limiting value of the batting average (BA) and the intercept c is related to the difficulty of producing a hit which obviously depends on a number of complex factors associated with the game the pitcher, the pitching speed, the stadium, the wind speed, and even Babe Ruths own mental alertness and focus.

250 200

Number of Hits, y

150 100

50
0 -50 -100 0 100 200 300

y = hx + c = h(x x0) BA = y/x = h + (c/x) = 0.525 (84.53/x)

400

500

600

700

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 6: Babe Ruths batting statistics with the New York Yankees (1920-1935). Except for his final season (72 AB and 13 Hits), the AB varied between a minimum of 359, in the 1925 season, to a maximum of 540, in the 1921 and 1927 seasons. The 1927 season was Babe
Page | 9

Ruths record year when he hit 60 Home Runs. The best-fit line has the equation y = 0.525x 84.53 = 0.525 (x 161.14) = h(x x0) which leads to the conclusion of increasing BA = y/x with increase AB. The negative intercept c leads to the high rate of increase of hits with AB and also led to Babe Ruths legendary status. The more he batted, the better was his batting average (click here for the raw data used to prepare this plot). An exactly similar analysis can be carried out for Home Runs (HR) versus AB; see Appendix 2 which also provides a comparison with fellow Yankee teammate Lou Gehrigs performance in the 1927 season. The series of parallels observed when we consider the game-by-game data is replaced by the more general y = hx + c, when we start aggregating the data and consider the monthly BA, or go a step further and start aggregating the data for each season to consider the career BA. The career stats for Babe Ruth have been plotted in Figures 6 and 7. The family of parallels, with a slope h = 1, revealed by the game-by-game stats is now replaced by a line slope h < 1. The BA = y/x = h + (c/x) increases if c < 0 (as for Babe Ruth). It could also decrease with increasing At Bats if c > 0. This is the situation with Ruths fellow Yankee Lou Gehrig, in the same 1927 season, as shown in Appendix 2. In Figure 6 we consider Babe Ruths batting statistics during his entire time with the New York Yankees. This reveals a nice linear relation y = hx + c = 0.525x 84.53 with a regression coefficient r2 = 0.9005. Again, during this entire careers, because of the negative intercept c = - 84.53, Babe Ruths BA = y/x = 0.525 (84.53/x) was increasing as the number of At Bats x increased. This again led to the perception of an increasing BA with increasing AB and may also have been the reason for Babe Ruths legendary status. The more he batted, the better he seemed to be getting as far as the BA was concerned. (For Lou Gehrig, just the opposite was true, at least in the 1927 season. His BA started at 0.400 for April 1927, improved to 0.413 by the end of May 1927 and then deteriorated in the following months.) But, look again at the x-y graphs. The number of hits H always increased at the same fixed rate h = y/x = 0.525. If the AB increased by a fixed amount x,
Page | 10

the hits increased by the same fixed amount y = hx. This can be ascertained by considering the several (x, y) pairs such as (406, 128) for 1922 and (457, 156) for 1932. The AB increased by (457 406) = 51 and the Hits increased b (156 128) = 28 for a rate h = y/x = 28/51 = 0.549. The slope h of the graph is the rate at which hits increase as the at bats increase. Many other (x, y) pairs that fall on the linear regression yield similar rates. The same is also true for the (x, y) pairs that seem to fall on a parallel line either above or below the regression line deduced here. Babe Ruths career batting stats, including his time with the Boston Red Sox, is illustrated in Figure 7. With increasing AB, the data merges with the best-fit line deduced for his Yankee years.
250 200

Number of Hits, y

150 100 50 0 -50 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

y = hx + c = h(x x0) BA = y/x = h + (c/x) = 0.525 (84.53/x)

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 7: Babe Ruths complete batting statistics including the early Boston Red Sox years (1914-1919). The solid red dots here are the data for these six years. Notice how, with increasing AB, Ruths Red Sox years merge with his Yankee years. Indeed, the data
Page | 11

point for 1919 (AB = 432 and H = 139) falls smack on the regression line deduced for the New York Yankee years (1920-1935). The data for 1918 (AB = 317, H = 95) falls close to the Yankee regression line. Thus, it is clear that the slope of the xy graph (AB-H graph) also has a fundamental significance and can be compared to the fixed slope encountered in the tax problem (the marginal tax rate, taxes increase at a fixed rate with increasing taxable income, see discussion in companion article on the Airline Quality Rating, Ref. [12]). 1927 Season, Babe Ruth, Game by game Batting logs http://www.baseballalmanac.com/players/hittinglogs.php?p=ruthba01&y=1927

1935 Season, Babe Ruth, Game by game Batting logs http://www.baseballalmanac.com/players/hittinglogs.php?p=ruthba01&y=1935 This was Ruths final season. He played only in April and May.

5. Brief Discussion and Conclusions

The present discussion of Babe Ruths batting average and home run record was actually prompted by a recent discussion of the significance of the Airline Quality Ratings, especially the On-Time (OT) arrival statistics, see further details in Ref. [12]. Like the BA in baseball, the OT arrivals used in assessing airline performance is also a simple y/x ratio where x is the number of flights and y the number of On-time arrivals. The ratio y/x is, however, not the same as the rate of change, dy/dx, or y/x, the slope of the x-y graph. The graph may be linear or nonlinear. The term rate (such as the unemployment rate, or the gun death rate, or traffic fatality rate, etc.) is often used for a simple y/x ratio (which is equal to the slope of the ray joining any point on the graph back to the origin) which is then confused with the true rate of change. Nowhere is this more evident than in the quarterly ritual known as the earnings game, see Ref. [13]. As we learn from elementary calculus, the slope of the x-y graph, or the derivative of the dy/dx, is the true measure of the rate of change. It is this slope which tells us about the future position of a system, where it is a moving vehicle, a body which is being heated or cooled, or a company moving in profits-revenues space.
Page | 12

As the quarterly earnings reporting season begins, Wall Street analysts try to predict a companys earnings (this is called the earnings estimate) using an analysis of the two simple y/x ratios: the profit margin and the earnings per share. If the company can beat the estimates of these experts, it is often rewarded in the market place with an increase in the stock price (or price per share). If not, the companys stock price takes a hit. In the present economic climate, companies are trying to guide the experts towards a lower earnings estimate. This is called managing the earnings game. The recent analysis about this wall of worry in Ref. [13] is one of the most candid admissions of this game that I have seen. However, a more rigorous and scientific approach to such earnings estimates is possible, if we understand the difference between the simple y/x ratio and the true measure of the rate of change, the slope of the x-y graph, or dy/dx, or y/x, see also discussion in Ref. [14]. Recall that the profit margin is the ratio of profits y to the revenues x of a company. The earnings per share (EPS) is the ratio of earnings (another name for profits) and the number of outstanding shares. The profit margin does not tell us anything about the rate of increase of profits with increasing revenues. Does anyone use the ratio y/x to discuss taxes? If x is the taxable income and y is the tax owed, the ratio y/x is simple the fraction (or percentage) of income that one pays as taxes. It does not tell us anything about the rate at which taxes increase with increasing taxable income. In the tax problem (today, April 15, 2013, is the tax filing deadline in the USA for majority of taxpayers), this rate is called the marginal tax rate. The US tax code, is actually a series of straight lines, with the general equation y = mx + c with the slope m and intercept c having a constant and fixed value for a certain income range (called the tax bracket), see Table 2. When taxable income increases by a fixed amount x, the tax owed always goes up by the same fixed amount y. The ratio m = y/x, the marginal tax rate, is a constant. The ratio y/x, the percent of income paid as taxes, keeps going up as incomes increase. Only for the lowest tax bracket /x = m = marginal tax rate.

Page | 13

Table 2: The US 2012 Tax Rate Schedule Converted into the Tax Equation
Taxable Of income (x) But not Tax owed (y) amount Tax equation is over over Is over $0 $8700 10% $0 y = 0.10x $8700 $35,350 $870 + 15% $8700 y = 0.15x -435 35,350 85,650 $4867.5 + 25% $35,350 y = 0.25x 3,970 85,650 178,650 $17,442.50+28% $85,650 y = 0.28x 6,539.5 178,650 388,350 $43,482.5+33% $178,650 y = 0.33x 15, 472 388,350 No limit $112,683.5+35% $388,350 y = 0.38x 23,239 For the 15% bracket, y = 0.15x 435 = 0.15(x 2900) = 870 + 0.15(x 8700) For the highest 35% bracket, y = 0.38x 23,239 = 112,683.5 + (x 388,350) Likewise, as discussed in several related articles, Ref. [15], the observations on various companies suggests that when revenues increase by a fixed amount x, the profits always go up by the same fixed amount y and the slope h = y/x is a constant. I have proposed this slope as a new measure of profitability of a company and called it the MPR (articles listed in Ref. [15]), the marginal profit rate, just like the marginal tax rate. The present discussion of baseball statistics is aimed at showing how the simple linear law y = hx + c emerges when we carefully analyze our (x, y) observations on many complex problems of interest to us, such as airline performance, a batters performance, or a companys performance, or the effectiveness of a drug, or effectiveness of various policies, etc. The nonzero intercept c that is often deduced, as we see here for Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrigs batting statistics (see also Appendix 2), can be compared to Einsteins work function in the photoelectric law. The photoelectric law, K = W = hf W = h(f f0), implies that the K-f graph is a series of parallels with the same fixed slope h but with an intercept W, or a cut-off frequency f0 = W/h, which depends on the nature of the metal upon which light shines to produce the electrons (see also Appendix 1). We see the same movement along a series of parallels when we consider the baseball
Page | 14

batting statistics in the most fundamental manner by appealing to the gameby-game batting logs instead of various aggregated averages for a month, or a season, or an entire career. As discussed by Millikan ( who received the Nobel Prize for his experiments with lithium and sodium, that led to a confirmation of Einsteins ideas about the quantum nature of light, see Refs. [4,6]), the work function tells us something about the difficulty of producing an electron and getting it out of the metal. A similar work function describes the batting statistics, as discussed here. An exactly similar movement along parallels is also observed when we analyze the profits-revenues data for companies like Microsoft, Kia Motor Company, and even the new General Motors (see references cited). This movement can be understood in terms of the generalized work function c. Baseball statistics, as discussed here, is the simplest (and least controversial?) way to understand this generalization. The billionaires net worth problem and the Airline Quality Ratings problem, provided other examples where one can appreciate how the simple y/x ratio is affected by the size effect, the magnitude of the denominator x. In conclusion, the use of simple y/x ratios, especially when one is interested in determining the rates of change is fundamentally flawed and can lead to bewildering and controversial conclusions prompting mindless debates such as: The unemployment rate is going down but the number of unemployed is going up? (Wall Street Journal, June 2000, Ohio unemployment statistics). Or, traffic fatality rates are decreasing but the number of traffic accidents just keeps on rising and there is carnage on the highways (happened in the USA in the 1960s before the Highway Safety Act was enacted in 1966; see article discussing Traffic Fatalities and Unemployment Statistics under Ref. [15]). The y/x ratio can also bias quality and performance ratings in favor of either small or large x, via the size effect and the nonzero c, because y/x = h + (c/x). The Babe Ruth versus Lou Gehrig home run race in the 1927 season, discussed here briefly, can be readily understood by appealing to the slopes of the graph, or the true rate of change.

Page | 15

Appendix 1
The Work function and Einsteins Photoelectric law

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.kcvs.ca/site/images/photoelectric.gif&imgrefurl=http: //www.kcvs.ca/site/projects/physics.html&h=143&w=197&sz=6&tbnid=OaTLQpzeZFQLbM:&tbnh=90&tbn w=124&zoom=1&usg=__2Q7bzy57s2Jiin_Jl4DxoEcaiig=&docid=ZuuYk0TGPmMYM&sa=X&ei=UmVqUbC5KtOt0AGZsIH4Cw&ved=0CD4Q9QEwAw&dur=225

In his famous 1905 paper on the nature of light radiation, see Refs. [1-4], Einstein first showed that visible light can be thought of as a stream of particles (now called photons), each having Plancks elementary energy . Hence, when light shines on the surface of a metal, like lithium (used in the lithium-ion batteries of the modern era) or sodium (common salt is sodium chloride), it produces electrons. Modern photocells work on this principle. Some work must be done to overcome the forces that bind the electron to the metal. Hence, Einstein said that the maximum energy of the electron K = W where W is the work function, the energy that must be given up to produce the electron. Since = hf where h is a universal constant, called the Planck constant, and f is the frequency of light, this means that K = hf W = h(f f0) where f0 = W/h is the minimum frequency, or the cut-off frequency, below which no electrons are produced.
Page | 16

This can be rewritten as y = hx + c = h(x x0) where x is the frequency and y the maximum kinetic energy of the electron and x0 = -c/h is the intercept made on the x-axis (horizontal axis). The K-f graph is thus a straight line with a slope h and an intercept f0 on the frequency axis (plotted on the x-axis). Experiments with different metals will yield a series of parallels with a slope h and various values of the intercept f0 = W/h which depend on the work function of the metal, which is a measure of the difficulty of producing the electron, as mentioned by Millikan in his Nobel lecture, Ref. [4].

Courtesy: http://coraifeartaigh.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/planck_photoelectric_1.gif http://panda.unm.edu/Courses/Fields/Phys491/Notes/PhotoelectricEffect.pdf

The photoelectric effect was first discovered, in the form of a curious spark, by Heinrich Hertz, during the course of his experiments aimed at producing radio waves, or electromagnetic waves in the laboratory. These investigations engaged the attention of physicists in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Phillip Lenard, Hertzs assistant, followed up on the curious spark and discovered the cut-off frequency. Lenard received the Nobel Prize in 1905, Ref. [5], the same year that Einstein conceived the photoelectric law K = W = hf W = h(f f0). Einsteins explanation for Lenards cut-off frequency f0 = W/h is based on the quantum nature of light. Although the focus has always been on the universal constant, the Planck constant, given by
Page | 17

the slope h, the nonzero intercept, of cut-off frequency, is also of great fundamental importance to understand many problems outside physics.

Appendix 2 The AB-Hits Diagram and the Comparison of Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrigs 1927 seasons
The baseball statistic, known as the batting average, can be traced to the batting average that was used in cricket to measure the skill of a batsman, see Ref. [16]. In baseball, the BA is defined as the ratio of the number of hits (H) to the number of At Bats (AB). Thus, BA = H/AB. A season batting average of 0.300 is considered to be excellent and 0.400 is truly exceptional and has been rarely accomplished [16]. The BA, which is a fraction, is usually quoted to three decimal places but often read as a whole number in the thousands. Babe Ruths baseball career spanned the years 1914-1935 and his single season Home Run record of 60 stood for 34 years, see Ref. [17-19]. His career Home record of 714 also stood for a long time, until 1974, when it was surpassed by Hank Aaron, see Ref. [18]. Ruth had a career BA of 0.342 (or 342) with career AB = 8399 and H = 2873. In the 1920s, Babe dominated the game and broke all records. He combined a high BA with rate hitting power. In 1920, he bested his own home run record of 29, set the previous year, with 54 home runs and then bettered it in 1927 with 60 home runs in a single season. In this article, we have discussed Babe Ruths BA using the AB-Hits x-y diagrams. However, the main purpose here is NOT a discussion of Babe Ruths record, or baseball statistics, but to use the insights gained as a basis to discuss other more complex problems (from economics, finance, business, and a variety of social, political, environmental, and cultural areas) where we compile huge volumes of x and y data on a daily, monthly, quarterly, and annual basis. As discussed in the companion article on Airline Quality Rating, see Ref. [12], in all such problems, as also with the baseball statistics, we observe a simple linear relation of the type y = hx + c relating the variables
Page | 18

x and y of interest to us. In the baseball statistics of interest to us, x is the number of At Bats and y the number of Hits. Consider the following batting stats for three years, 1925, 1927, and 1932. We see an unmistakable trend here. As the number of AB increase, lets call this x, the number of hits also increase, lets call this y. Thus, we can prepare a x-y diagram as illustrated in Figure 8.
300

250

Number of Hits, y

200

1927 (540, 192) y/x = 0.356

150

100

50

1925 (359, 104) y/x = 0.290

0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 8: Babe Ruth batting average (BA) for the years 1925 and 1927 equals the slope of the ray joining the individual (x, y) pair on this diagram back to the origin (0, 0). The steeper the slope the higher is the BA. The slope of the ray, the straight line joining the individual data point back to the origin, is the BA = y/x. The higher the slope, the higher is the BA. This is indicated by the two dashed lines joining the origin to the (x, y) pairs for 1925 and 1927. The (x, y) pair for 1932 falls between these two rays since the AB was lower for 1932 and corresponding the number of Hits y was also lower.

Page | 19

Notice also that the three data points seem to fall on another straight line which does NOT pass through the origin. This is illustrated in Figure 9.

Table 3: Babe Ruths batting stats for selected years

Year AB, x Hits, y 1925 359 104 1932 457 156 1927 540 192 Babe Ruth set the single season 60 home run record in 1927.
300

BA = y/x 0.290 0.341 0.356

250

Number of Hits, y

y = hx + c = h(x x0) BA = y/x = h + (c/x) = 0.486 (70.54/x)

200

150

100

50

0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 9: Babe Ruth batting average (BA) for the years 1925 and 1927 equals the slope of the ray joining the individual (x, y) pair on this diagram back to the origin (0, 0). The steeper the slope the higher is the BA. The significance of the nonzero intercept c, in particular, will be clarified using Babe Ruth, game by game batting logs for the 1927 and 1935 seasons, Refs. [20,21]. This nonzero intercept is analogous to the work function conceived by Einstein in his 1905 paper. With a nonzero c, the ratio y/x = h + (c/x) can
Page | 20

either increase or decrease as x increases, depending on the numerical values of h and c, which can be either positive or negative. This is discussed further in this appendix by comparing the batting performance of Babe Ruth and his fellow Yankee Lou Gehrig. An increasing or decreasing y/x ratio will obviously affect our perceptions regarding the performance of the system (here the baseball batter) being analyzed. The slope h and the intercept c of a straight line can be determined using the data for the years 1927 and 1925, the two points that are furthest apart. Slope h = (y2 y1) /(x2 x1) Intercept c = y1 hx1 = y2 hx2 ..(1) ..(2)

The slope h = 88/181 = 0.486 and the intercept c = -70.54. Hence, y = 0.486x 70.6=54 = 0.486(x 145) where x0 = -c/h = 145.1 is the intercept made on the horizontal, or x- axis, the value of x when y goes to zero. The 1932 data falls slightly above the line. Babe Ruth had 156 hits instead of the 152 hits predicted by interpolation of the data. What is the significance of this slope h and the intercept c or x0 = - c/h?

Table 4: Lou Gehrigs Batting Stats from 1927 season

Data for individual months Cumulative at end of month Month At Bats Hits BA = At Bats Hits BA AB/H =AB/H April-27 55 22 0.400 55 22 0.400 May-27 112 47 0.420 167 69 0.413 June-27 103 36 0.350 270 105 0.389 July-27 116 45 0.388 386 150 0.389 Aug-27 91 32 0.352 477 182 0.382 Sep-27 103 35 0.340 580 217 0.374 Oct-27 4 1 0.250 584 218 0.373 Games played: April (15), May (28), (same as Ruth), June (27 vs 23 for Ruth), July (31), August (26), September (27) and October (1). Total games equals 147.

Page | 21

To answer this let us consider the batting performance of Babe Ruth with Lou Gehrig in the same 1927 season, when there was friendly competition between these two team-mates for the home run record. Then, mysteriously, Gehrigs performance dwindled and he dropped out of the race.
300

250

Number of Hits, y

y = hx + c = h(x x0) BA = y/x = h + (c/x) = 0.370 + (4.683/x)

200

150

100

50

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 10: Lou Gehrigs batting average (BA) for the 1927 season reveals a nice linear relation, as for Babe Ruth (monthly cumulative values). The best-fit line y = 0.370x + 4.683 compared to y = 0.361x 0.992 for Babe Ruth. The positive intercept means Gehrig started the season with a higher BA but it deteriorated as the season progressed (perhaps, leading to a negative perception). Ruth, on the other hand, improved his BA as the season progressed (negative intercept c). A similar pattern is also observed when we compare the home record (HR) of these two Yankees.

Page | 22

Table 5: Babe Ruth versus Lou Gehrig HR (1927 season)

Home HRA At Bats Home HRA Runs (HR) = HR/AB Runs (HR) =HR/AB April-27 51 4 0.078 55 4 0.073 May-27 157 16 0.102 167 12 0.072 June-27 233 25 0.107 270 25 0.093 July-27 344 34 0.099 386 35 0.091 Aug-27 434 43 0.099 477 41 0.086 Sep-27 537 60 0.112 580 46 0.079 Oct-27 540 60 0.111 584 47 0.080 Gehrig had more AB than Babe Ruth, even at HR = 4 and HR = 25. Month At Bats

60

Number of Homers, y

50

y = hx + c = h(x x0) HRA = y/x = h + (c/x) = 0.082 + (0.504/x)

40

30

20

10

0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 11: The evolution of Lou Gehrigs Home Runs (homers) record in the 1927 season. A simple linear relation is again observed, as with Hits versus AB. The best-fit line has the equation y = 0.082x + 0.504 with r2 = 0.9839. The ratio HRA y/x = HR/AB is referred to here as the home run average. Sinc e the intercept c
Page | 23

= 0.504 > 0, the HRA decreases as the number of AB increases. In other words, Lou Gehrigs batting performance is deteriorating. Notice also that Gehrig had more AB than Babe Ruth when both team-mates had 4 and 25 home runs each.
70 60

Number of Homers, y

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 0

y = hx + c = h(x x0) HRA = y/x = h + (c/x) = 0.112 - (2.24/x)

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 12: The evolution of Babe Ruths single season Home Runs (homers) record in the 1927 season. A simple linear relation is again observed, as with Hits versus AB. The ratio HRA = HR/AB is referred to here as the home run average. Since the intercept c < 0, the HRA increases as the number of AB increases. In other words, Babe Ruth seems to be getting better the more he bats. Beyond the perception of improving, or deteriorating, performance created by the negative or positive intercept c, a more detailed examination of the rate of increase of home runs, as measured by the slopes of the individual line segments, reveals a clear advantage for Babe Ruth, see Figures 13 and 14.

Page | 24

65 60 55

Number of Homers, y

50 45

(434, 43)

40
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

(233, 25)

(51, 4)

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 13: The slopes of the individual line segments joining the monthly batting stats for Babe Ruth. The slope of the line segments joining the cumulative monthly data, see Figures 13 and 14, is a measure of the rate of increase of home runs as the number of AB increase. This slope is like the instantaneous speed, or velocity, of a moving vehicle, v = s/t and differs from the ratio s/t, which is a measure of the average speed of the vehicle since the trip began, with s being the total distance (or space) covered in the total time t. The higher the instantaneous speed v the greater will be the additional distance s covered in the additional time t. The same applies for the slope h = y/x of the HR versus AB graph as opposed to the ratio y/x. The difference in the slopes of the individual line segments observed for Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig (see Figure 14) shows that Gehrigs performance had already started deteriorating at HR = 25.

Page | 25

50 45

(477, 41)

Number of Homers, y

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

(270, 25)

(55, 4)

Number of At Bats, x
Figure 14: The slopes of the individual line segments joining the monthly batting stats for Lou Gehrig. These slopes, much more than the familiar y/x ratios, tell us why Babe Ruth overtook fellow Yankee Lou Gehrig in the 1927 season. Both Gehrig and Ruth had 103 AB in September 1927 but Ruth scored an additional 17 home runs whereas Gehrig only scored an additional 5 home runs. However, the seeds for this dramatic difference were laid when both team-mates were at HR = 25 at the end of June 1927. The slopes of the two AB-HR graphs started diverging as the season continued in July.

Page | 26

Reference List
1. On a heuristic point of view about the creation and conversion of light, by A. Einstein, 1905, Einsteins original paper which showed light can be viewed as particles with fixed energy quanta,
http://www.ffn.ub.es/luisnavarro/nuevo_maletin/Einstein_1905_heuristic.pdf

2. On a heuristic point of view concerning the production and transformation of light, Paper 5, in Einsteins Miraculous Year: Five Papers that changed the face of physics, Princeton Univ. Press (1998). http://press.princeton.edu/einstein/materials/light_quanta.pdf 3. Einsteins Quanta, Entropy, and the Photoelectric Effect, by Dwight E. Neuenschwander, Excellent discussion about how Einstein arrives at his conception of light quanta from the property called entropy possessed by radiation in the form light,
http://www.sigmapisigma.org/radiations/2004/elegant_connections_f04.pdf

4. The electron and light quant from experimental point of view, May 23, 1924, Nobel Lecture, by Robert Millikan, see Figure 4 on page 63, for experiments with sodium. The straight line graph for photoelectric experiments confirms Einsteins law. The slope of the graph gives the universal Planck constant h, one of the fundamental constants of nature. http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1923/millika n-lecture.pdf 5. On Cathode Rays, Nobel Lecture, May 28, 1906, by Philip Lenard, http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1905/lenardlecture.pdf 6. Focus: Centennial Focus, Millikans Measurement of the Planck constant, April 22, 1999, by Gerald Holton, http://physics.aps.org/story/v3/st23 7. The Photoelectric Effect, by M. Brandl, Project PhysNet, http://www.ifsc.usp.br/~lavfis/BancoApostilasImagens/ApEfFotoeletrico /The%20Photoelectric%20Effect%20-%20m213.pdf 8. The Millikan experiment to verify the Photoelectric relationship, http://tap.iop.org/atoms/quantum/502/file_47016.pdf

Page | 27

9. Photoelectric Effect, http://physics.tutorvista.com/modernphysics/photoelectric-effect.html 10. Legendre, On Least Squares, English Translation of the original paper http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/legendre.pdf 11. Line of Best-Fit, Least Squares Method, see worked example given http://hotmath.com/hotmath_help/topics/line-of-best-fit.html The formula for h used in this example is an actually approximate one and was used, before the advent of modern computers, since it only involves the determination of x2 and xy and the sum of all the values of x, y, x2 and xy. The exact formula, is given below, with xm and ym denoting the mean or average values of x and y in the data set, and ym = hxm + c since the best-fit line always passes through the point (xm , ym). h = (x xm)(y ym)/ (x xm)2 Determine the deviations of the individual x and y values from the mean, or average, (x xm) and (y ym). Determine the product (x xm)(y ym) and their sum. This gives the numerator in the expression for h. Determine the square (x xm)2 and the sum. This gives the denominator in the expression for h. This also fixes the intercept c via ym = hxm = c . Then, using the regression equation, determine the predicted value yb on the best-fit line and the vertical deviation (y yb) and the squares (y- yb)2. The sum of these squares is a minimum. This can be checked by assigning other values for h (using any two points) and allowing the graph to pivot around (xm, ym). The regression coefficient r2 = 1 - { (y- yb)2 / (y- ym)2 } is a measure of the strength of the correlation between x and y (or y/x versus x). For a perfect correlation, when all points lie exactly on the graph, r2 =+1.000. 12. Airline Quality Report: Analysis of On-Time Percentages, To be Published April xx, 2013 . 13. Analysis: US companies add to wall of worry then may smash it, Reuters, April 14, 2013, http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-ucompanies-add-wall-210419663.html?l=1 S&P 500 earnings were expected to
increase just 1.5 percent for the first quarter when earnings season began and the latest estimate Page | 28

stands at 1.1 percent. But investors and strategists say that earnings will more than likely look substantially better when the season comes to a close. "The companies are doing a very good job of guiding the analysts lower to pave the way for what I call 'manufactured earnings surprises,'" said Nick Raich, chief executive of The Earnings Scout, an independent research firm specializing in earnings trends, in Cleveland, Ohio. "That's the way the earnings game is played."

14. The Difference between a Ratio y/x and the Rate dy/dx or y/x, to be To be Published April xx, 2013. 15. Bibliography, Articles on Extension of Plancks Ideas and Einsteins Ideas beyond physics, Compiled on April 16, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/136492067/Bibliography-Articles-on-theExtension-of-Planck-s-Ideas-and-Einstein-s-Ideas-on-Energy-Quantum-totopics-Outside-Physics-by-V-Laxmanan 16. Batting Average, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_average 17. Babe Ruth makes Home Run Record (1927) : 20th Century History, http://history1900s.about.com/od/1920s/qt/baberuthhomerun.htm 18. Babe Ruth, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babe_Ruth 19. Babe Ruth, Official Home Page, http://www.baberuth.com/ 20. Babe Ruth 1927 Game by Game Batting logs, http://www.baseballalmanac.com/players/hittinglogs.php?p=ruthba01&y=1927 21. Babe Ruth 1935 Game by Game Batting logs, http://www.baseballalmanac.com/players/hittinglogs.php?p=ruthba01&y=1935

Page | 29

About the author V. Laxmanan, Sc. D.

The author obtained his Bachelors degree (B. E.) in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Poona and his Masters degree (M. E.), also in Mechanical Engineering, from the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, followed by a Masters (S. M.) and Doctoral (Sc. D.) degrees in Materials Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA. He then spent his entire professional career at leading US research institutions (MIT, Allied Chemical Corporate R & D, now part of Honeywell, NASA, Case Western Reserve University (CWRU), and General Motors Research and Development Center in Warren, MI). He holds four patents in materials processing, has co-authored two books and published several scientific papers in leading peer-reviewed international journals. His expertise includes developing simple mathematical models to explain the behavior of complex systems. While at NASA and CWRU, he was responsible for developing material processing experiments to be performed aboard the space shuttle and developed a simple mathematical model to explain the growth Christmas-tree, or snowflake, like structures (called dendrites) widely observed in many types of liquid-to-solid phase transformations (e.g., freezing of all commercial metals and alloys, freezing of water, and, yes, production of snowflakes!). This led to a simple model to explain the growth of dendritic structures in both the groundbased experiments and in the space shuttle experiments. More recently, he has been interested in the analysis of the large volumes of data from financial and economic systems and has developed what may be called the Quantum Business Model (QBM). This extends (to financial and economic systems) the mathematical arguments used by Max Planck to develop quantum physics using the analogy Energy = Money, i.e., energy in physics is like money in economics. Einstein applied Plancks ideas to describe the photoelectric effect (by treating light as being composed of particles called photons, each with the fixed quantum of energy conceived by Planck). The mathematical law deduced by Planck, referred to here as the generalized power-exponential law, might
Page | 30

actually have many applications far beyond blackbody radiation studies where it was first conceived. Einsteins photoelectric law is a simple linear law and was deduced from Plancks non-linear law for describing blackbody radiation. It appears that financial and economic systems can be modeled using a similar approach. Finance, business, economics and management sciences now essentially seem to operate like astronomy and physics before the advent of Kepler and Newton. Finally, during my professional career, I also twice had the opportunity and great honor to make presentations to two Nobel laureates: first at NASA to Prof. Robert Schrieffer (1972 Physics Nobel Prize), who was the Chairman of the Schrieffer Committee appointed to review NASAs space flight experiments (following the loss of the space shuttle Challenger on January 28, 1986) and second at GM Research Labs to Prof. Robert Solow (1987 Nobel Prize in economics), who was Chairman of Corporate Research Review Committee, appointed by GM corporate management.

Cover page of AirTran 2000 Annual Report

Can you see that plane flying above the tall tree tops that make a nearly perfect circle? It requires a great deal of imagination to see and to photograph it.

Page | 31