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ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 261,149 (19,357) 0.6 1,438/1047 140,551 1 19,906 6,024 TCS.BO TCS@IN
`1,459 `1,585
12 months
For 4QFY2013, TCS reported in-line set of results with a strong volume growth of 4.4% qoq. What came as a disappointment was the quantum of fall in the operating margin. It fell by ~70bp qoq against our expectation of a fall of ~40bp. But what is a big positive is the Managements bullish commentary, coupled with the annual wage hike announcement, continued hiring guidance, and the fact that the Management expects FY2014 to be better than FY2013. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 4QFY2013, TCS posted a revenue of US$3,040mn, up 3.1% qoq. In INR terms, the revenue came in at `16,430cr, up 2.2% qoq. A large part of the revenue growth during the quarter was driven by India; and within India, by sale of equipment and software licenses. TCS EBITDA and EBIT margins declined by 60bp and 73bp qoq to 28.4% and 26.5%, respectively, impacted by a one-time lawsuit settlement of ~US$30mn and a ~`100cr impact due to exchange rate fluctuation. The PAT came in at `3,552cr, up 1.1% qoq, aided by other income of `419cr. Outlook and valuation: The Management indicated that it expects CY2013 to be better than CY2012 in terms of IT spending, with clients seeming to be having a better handle on the kind of projects they would want to execute as clients are aware of the challenging macro environment and have made plans to spend on IT considering all these challenges. TCS is pursuing a higher number of large deals (in terms of cumulative size), vs this time last year. It cited a healthy deal pipeline with outlook on growth fairly broad-based. For FY2014, the Management has given a gross hiring target of 45,000 headcounts and has already given campus offers to ~25,000 candidates. The company also announced an ~7% wage hike at offshore, a 4-6% hike in other developing economies, and 2-4% hike in the developed economies. Over FY2013-15, we expect TCS revenue to post a 14.5% (USD terms) and 14.0% (INR terms) CAGR. On the EBITDA and PAT fronts, we expect the company to post a 12.5% and 11.2% CAGR over FY2013-15, respectively. We value TCS at 18x FY2015E EPS of `88.0 with a target price of `1,585 and maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2011 37,324 24.3 8,715 26.8 30.0 44.5 32.8 11.2 34.3 32.0 7.5 24.9 FY2012 48,891 31.0 10,636 22.0 29.5 54.3 26.9 8.8 32.7 32.8 5.6 19.1 FY2013E 62,988 28.8 13,942 31.1 28.7 71.2 20.5 7.0 34.0 32.7 4.3 14.9 FY2014E 71,833 14.0 15,369 10.2 28.4 78.5 18.6 5.6 30.2 30.2 3.7 13.2 FY2015E 81,893 14.0 17,228 12.1 27.9 88.0 16.6 4.6 27.9 28.2 3.2 11.5
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 74.0 6.5 15.0 4.6
3m 6.6 2.8
Ankita Somani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 16,430 8,577 7,853 3,193 4,660 302 4,358 419 4,777 1,142 3,635 38 3,597 18.4 47.8 28.4 26.5 21.3
3QFY13 16,070 8,453 7,617 2,963 4,654 273 4,381 213 4,594 1,003 3,592 40 3,552 18.1 47.4 29.0 27.3 21.8
% chg (qoq) 2.2 1.5 3.1 7.8 0.1 10.4 (0.5) 4.0 13.9 1.2 (4.5) 1.3 1.3 40bp (60)bp (73)bp (46)bp
4QFY12 13,259 6,924 6,336 2,424 3,912 240 3,672 108 3,780 817 2,962 30 2,932 15.0 47.8 29.5 27.7 21.9
% chg (yoy) 23.9 23.9 23.9 31.7 19.1 25.7 18.7 26.4 39.7 22.7 27.9 22.7 22.7 1bp (114)bp (117)bp (59)bp
FY2013 62,988 33,253 29,736 11,648 18,088 1,079 17,009 1,118 18,126 4,034 14,092 149 13,942 71.2 47.2 28.7 27.0 21.7
FY2012 48,891 25,877 23,014 8,599 14,415 904 13,511 404 13,915 3,169 10,747 111 10,636 54.3 47.1 29.5 27.6 21.6
% chg (yoy) 28.8 28.5 29.2 35.5 25.5 19.4 25.9 30.3 27.3 31.1 34.6 31.1 31.1 14bp (77)bp (63)bp 17bp
A consistent performer
For 4QFY2013, TCS reported in-line set of results with USD revenue growing by 3.1% qoq to US$3,040mn. In constant currency (CC) terms, revenue grew 4.0% qoq, aided by a robust volume growth of 4.4% qoq. Excluding sale of equipment and software licenses, growth in volumes was 3.4% qoq, in line with our estimates. In INR terms, the revenue came in at `16,430cr, up 2.2% qoq. A large part of the revenue growth during the quarter was driven by India; and within India, from the sale of equipment and software licenses. India contributed 47% to incremental revenues during the quarter. TCS closed 11 large deals during 4QFY2013. These deals span industry segments as well as geographies.
5.3
5.0 4.4
(%)
3.3 3.0
4.6
3.3 3.1
4.40
2.23
1 0 (1) (2) (3) Volume Offshore effort shift Currency impact Total revenue growth (0.41) (1.77)
Broad-based growth
TCS performance during the quarter was backed by healthy demand seen across almost all its industry segments. The companys anchor industry segment banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) grew the fastest amongst all the industry segments by posting a 4.3% qoq growth in revenues. The segment witnessed incremental revenues by ~60% during the quarter. The company expects BFSI to grow at least in line with the companys average in FY2014. IT spending in the BFSI industry is seen to be coming from work related to compliance, risk monitoring and digitization. Each of the industry segments such as manufacturing, retail & distribution, energy & utilities, and media & entertainment, posted 3%+ kind of dollar revenue growth qoq. The Management indicated that telecom, which has been challenged since the last two years, is expected to perform better in FY2014, which is in contradiction to the commentary given by the Managements of other IT companies, peer to TCS.
% chg (qoq) 4.3 3.1 0.9 1.1 3.1 (2.6) 3.1 3.1 1.3
% chg (yoy) 18.3 23.5 6.8 10.5 23.1 5.5 14.8 9.6 9.1
Service line wise, three service areas led TCS growth during 4QFY2014 IMS (6.6% qoq growth), enterprise services (5.9% qoq growth) and assurance services (4.5% qoq). Each of these verticals has now been strong over the past four quarters for TCS and have collectively accounted for 64% of the incremental revenue, during the quarter. The revenue from the companys anchor service line application development and maintenance (ADM) grew by 3.1% qoq. The Management indicated that the deal pipeline is robust for services such as infrastructure management, consulting, enterprise services, and products.
% chg (qoq) 3.1 5.9 4.5 0.9 6.6 (0.1) (7.9) (0.2)
% chg (yoy) 9.6 17.1 22.7 14.8 33.6 31.8 (26.4) 19.8
Geography wise, growth was largely led by India, the revenue from which grew by 19.4% qoq. Revenue from UK declined by 1.0% qoq, on quarterly volatility in Diligenta, and depreciation of GBP. Revenue from developed geographies such as US and Continental Europe grew by 2.1% and 6.5% qoq, respectively.
2QFY13
80.6
81.3
81.6
81.7
82.1
78 76 74 72 70 4QFY12 1QFY13 Including trainees 2QFY13 3QFY13 Excluding trainees 4QFY13 71.3 72.8 72.3 72.1 72.2
For 4QFY2013, the utilization level excluding trainees improved by 38bp qoq to 82.1%; while including trainees, it remained almost flat qoq at 72.2%.
Margins decline
TCS EBITDA and EBIT margins declined by 60bp and 73bp qoq to 28.4% and 26.5% respectively, impacted by an one-time lawsuit settlement of ~US$30mn and a `100cr impact due to exchange rate fluctuation. The break-up of movement in EBIT margin is: 1) exchange rates: -64bp, 2) productivity gains: +94bp, 3) US settlement: -98bp and 4) increase in SG&A costs: -5bp.
29.5
29.1 28.4
29.0 28.4
(%)
27.7
27.5 26.8
27.3 26.5
2QFY13
4QFY13
(bp)
0 (50)
(73)
US Settlement
Productivity shift
SG&A efficiency
Total impact
Client metrics
The client pyramid during the quarter witnessed a qualitative improvement, with client additions seen in some of the revenue brackets. During the quarter, TCS added one client in the US$50-100mn revenue bracket and 10 in the US$10mn-20mn revenue bracket. It added 52 new accounts in 4QFY2013, taking the total active client base to 1,065.
277 75 71 56 29 14 1,037 42
Over FY2013-15, we expect TCS revenue to post a 14.5% (in USD terms) and 14.0% (in INR terms) CAGR. On the EBITDA and PAT fronts, we expect the company to post a 12.5% and 11.2% CAGR over FY2013-15, respectively. At the current market price of `1,459, the stock is trading at 18.6x FY2014E and 16.6x FY2015E EPS of `78.5 and `88.0, respectively. We value TCS at 18x FY2015E EPS of `88.0 with a target price of `1,585 and maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.
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1,200 900 600 300 0 Apr-07 Dec-07 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Price 25x 21x 16x 11x 6x
Company background
TCS is Asia's largest IT services provider and is amongst the top 10 technology firms in the world. The company has a global footprint with an employee base of over 2.7lakh professionals, offering services to more than 1,050 clients across various industry segments. The company has one of the widest portfolios of services offerings, spanning across the entire IT service value chain from traditional application development and maintenance to consulting and package implementation to products and platforms.
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11
12
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio(x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios(x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 7.2 80 7.6 86 32.0 41.1 34.3 32.8 43.3 32.7 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.3 34.8 0.8 1.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 33.0 44.5 48.2 23.4 130 54.3 59.0 20.0 166 32.8 30.3 11.2 1.6 7.5 24.9 8.5 26.9 24.7 8.8 1.4 5.6 19.1 6.7 20.5 19.0 7.0 1.3 4.3 14.9 5.2 71.2 76.8 19.0 209 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.2 1.3 34.4 32.7 46.3 34.0 7.7 82 7.9 83 8.0 83 30.2 41.6 30.2 28.2 39.5 27.9 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.3 30.5 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.2 28.3 78.5 84.7 19.0 260 88.0 95.1 19.0 315 18.6 17.2 5.6 1.3 3.7 13.2 4.2 16.6 15.3 4.6 1.3 3.2 11.5 3.5 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
TCS No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
14