CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

1.

Set up a 95% and 99% confidence interval estimates for the given examples: a. X = 85, = 8, and n = 64 b. X = 125, = 24, and n = 36 A manufacturer of computer paper has a production process that operates continuously throughout an entire production shift. The paper is expected to have a mean length of 11 inches and the standard deviation of the length is known to be 0,02 inch. At periodic intervals, samples are selected to determine whether the mean paper length is still equal to 11 inches or whether something has gone wrong in the production process to change the length of the paper produced. If such a situation has occurred, corrective action is needed. Suppose a random sample of 100 sheets is selected, and the mean paper length is found to be 10,998 inches. Set up a 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean paper length. The quality control manager at a light bulb factory needs to estimate the mean life of a large shipment of light bulbs. The process standard deviation is known to be 100 hours. A random sample of 64 light bulbs indicated a sample mean life of 350 hours. a. Set up a 95% confidence interval estimate of the true population mean life of light bulbs in this shipment. b. Do you think that the manufacturer has the right to state that the light bulbs last an average of 400 hours? Explain. c. Explain why an observed value of 320 hours for a single light bulb is not unusual, even thought it is outside the confidence interval you calculated. d. Suppose that the process standard deviation changed to 80 hours. What would be your answers in (a) to (b)? The operations manager for a large newspaper wants to determine the proportion of newspapers printed that have a nonconforming attribute, such as excessive rub-off, improper page setup, missing pages, and duplicate pages. The operations manager determines that a random sample of 200 newspapers should be selected for analysis. Suppose that, of this sample of 200, thirty-five contain some type of nonconformance. If the operations manger wants to have 90% confidence of estimating the true population proportion, set up the confidence interval estimate. A survey conducted by Readers Digest Testing honesty around the world that studied honesty around the world reported that of 1100 wallets containing up to $50 in local currency and a name and phone number that were lost, 484 were not returned. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all wallets that would be returned if lost. Suppose that a sample of 100 sales invoices is selected from the population of sales invoices during the month and the sample mean of the 100 sales invoices is $110,27 with a sample standard deviation of $28,95. If the company requires 95% confidence, the critical value from the t distribution is 1,9842. Calculate the confidence interval for this case. If X = 50, S = 15, n = 16, and assuming that the population is normally distributed, set up a 99% confidence interval estimate of the population mean . A stationery store wants to estimate the mean retail value of greeting cards that is has in its inventory. A random sample of 20 greeting cards indicates an average value of $1,67 and a standard deviation of $0,32. Assuming a normal distribution, set up a 95% confidence interval estimate of the mean value of all greeting cards in stores inventory.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7. 8.

10. A UK study of factors affecting the outcome of pregnancy among 1513 women reported that the overall incidence of preterm births was 7.5%, S=0.68%, 95% CI 6.1 to 8.8% (Peacock et al.1995). What is meant by 95% CI 6.1 to 8.8%? How would the confidence interval change if 90% limits were used? How would the confidence interval change if 99% limits were used?} Another study conducted at about the same time in Denmark and including 51851 women, reported that the overall incidence of preterm birth was 4.5% (95% CI 4.3 to 4.7%). iv. Explain why this 95% confidence interval is narrower than that reported in the UK study. 11. In a study of bone density and falls in older women, 118 volunteers were randomized to receive either calcium supplements plus a program of exercise classes or to calcium alone for two years. Twelve subjects dropped out from the calcium group and 14 from the calcium group taking exercise, leaving 92 subjects who completed the two year project. The percentage change in bone mineral content and bone mineral density in two years was calculated for each individual. The authors reported that for the ultradistal forearm the change in bone mineral content was 2.6 (95% confidence interval 0.6 to 4.6) in the calcium only group and 1.14 (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 3.1) in the calcium group taking exercise (McMurdo et al. 1997). What do the confidence intervals for the change in bone mineral content mean? To what population do they refer? 12. Use the given degree of confidence and sample data to construct a confidence interval for the population proportion. a) Of 346 items tested, 12 are found to be defective. Construct a 98% confidence interval for the percentage of all such items that are defective. b) Of 81 adults selected randomly from one town, 64 have health insurance. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the percentage of all adults in the town who have health insurance. c) A study involves 634 randomly selected deaths, with 29 of them caused by accidents. Construct a 98% confidence interval for the percentage of all deaths that are caused by accidents. 13. Construct the requested confidence interval from the supplied information. a) Thirty randomly selected students took the calculus final. If the sample mean was 82 and the standard deviation was 12.2, construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean score of all students. b) Among a sample of 65 students selected at random from one college, the mean number of siblings is 1.3 with a standard deviation of 1.1. Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean number of siblings for all students at this college. c) How much fat do reduced fat cookies typically have? You take a random sample of 51 reduced-fat cookies and test them in a lab, finding a mean fat content of 3.2 grams and a standard deviation of 1.1 grams of fat. Create a 99% confidence interval for the mean grams of fat. 14. Determine the margin of error in estimating the population parameter. How tall is your average statistics classmate? To determine this, you measure the height of a random sample of 15 of your 100 fellow students, finding a 95% confidence interval for the mean height of 167.25 to 169.75 cm with s. 15. Construct the indicated confidence interval for the difference between the two population means. Assume that the assumptions and conditions for inference have been met. a) The table below gives information concerning the gasoline mileage for random samples of trucks of two different types. Find a 95% confidence interval for the difference in the means mX - mY. Brand X Brand Y Number of Trucks 50 50 i. ii. iii.

Mean mileage Standard Deviation

20.1 2.3

24.3 1.8

b) A researcher was interested in comparing the heights of women in two different countries. Independent random samples of 9 women from country A and 9 women from country B yielded the following heights (in inches). Country A Country B 64.1 65.3 66.4 60.2 61.7 61.7 62.0 65.8 67.3 61.0 64.9 64.6 64.7 60.0 68.0 65.4 63.6 59.0 Determine a 90% confidence interval for the difference in mean, between the mean height of women in country A and the mean height of women in country B. c) A researcher was interested in comparing the number of hours of television watched each day by two-year-olds and three-year-olds. A random sample of 18 two-year-olds and 18 three-year-olds yielded the follow data. 2-year-olds 3-year-olds 0.5 1.5 2.0 3.0 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 0 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 1.0 0 0 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.0 0.5 0 3. 0 1.0 1.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 Find a 90% confidence interval for the difference in mean between the mean number of hours for two-year-olds and the mean number of hours for three-year-olds.