Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Existing Home Sales declined to 4.92 million in the last month. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5-mark in April. European Consumer Confidence was at -22-level in March. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of decline in Chinas manufacturing data which indicates a slowdown in the global economic growth. US Existing Home Sales declined to 4.92 million in March as against a rise of 4.95 million in February. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.1 points to 50.5-mark in April as against a rise of 51.6-level in March. The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and declined marginally in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, US equities also traded on an upbeat note which also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of unfavorable existing home sales data from the US. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.735 and closed at 82.82 on Monday. The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from crude oil and gold importers. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of domestic equities trading on an upbeat note along with expectations of cut in the key rates by the central banks in the rd monetary policy to be announced on 3 May 2013. Weakness in the DX also prevented further fall in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.24 and closed at 54.20 against dollar on Monday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1,628.80 crores nd ($302.06 million) as on 22 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital nd inflows stood at Rs.57,251.10 crores ($10,612.10 million) till 22 April 2013.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.2 Prev day -0.5

as on 22 April, 2013 w-o-w 0.6 m-o-m 0.2 y-o-y -3.9

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3066

0.1

0.2

1.7

-1.2

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.82

0.0

0.4

0.4

4.2

5834.4

0.9

4.8

3.6

10.3

SENSEX

19169.8

0.8

4.4

2.6

4.8

DJIA

14567.2

0.1

-0.2

0.8

11.8

S&P

1562.5

0.5

0.7

0.4

12.6

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, decline in borrowing cost for Italy and Spain supported an upside in the currency. European Consumer Confidence was at -22-level in March from earlier fall of 24-mark in February. The Euro touched an intraday high of 1.3093 and closed at 1.3066 against dollar on Monday.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased by 1.5 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments. Further, expectation of rise in physical demand after the biggest drop supported prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1438.6/oz and closed at $1425.1/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on positive note in the yesterday trading session on the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.26363/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 265452/10 gms on Monday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1425.1 26429.0 Prev. day 1.5 2.2 as on 22 April, 2013 WoW 5.4 0.1 MoM -11.2 -10.6 YoY -13.2 -7.5

1424.5

1.4

2.1

-10.9

-13.2

$/oz

1421.0

2.1

4.4

-11.4

-13.4

Silver
Taking cues from rise in spot gold prices along with weakness in DX, Spot silver prices rose by 0.9 percent in the yesterdays trading session. Further, optimistic global market sentiments supported prices to trade on positive note. However, unfavourable economic data from US capped sharp gains in the prices. The white metal prices touched an intra-day high of $23.68 /oz and closed at $23.4/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices increased by 1.8 percent taking cues from spot silver prices and closed at Rs. 43687/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 44070/kg on Monday.

Rs /10 gms

26363.0

2.2

2.8

-10.9

-8.0

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 23.4 46120.0 Prev day 0.9 0.7

as on 22 April, 2013 WoW 3.5 -2.1 MoM -18.8 -15.6 YoY -26.1 -19.4

$/oz $/ oz

2360.0 2332.0

-0.3 0.0

0.3 -1.3

-17.7 -18.6

-25.8 -23.6

Rs / kg

43687.0

1.8

-1.6

-19.4

-22.6

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, unfavourable economic data from US and China may add downside pressure on the prices. However, expectation of positive economic data from euro zone may cushion sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp downside in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for April 23, 2013 Support 1419/1409 26240/26050 23.10/22.85 43300/42900 Resistance 1436/1445 26540/26720 23.50/23.70 44000/44400

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

International Commodities
Energy
Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
as on 22 April, 2013 WoW 0.1 -0.2 0.1 MoM -6.1 -7.2 -6.4 YoY -14.3 -15.4 -13.9

Crude Oil
Crude Oil Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 88.8 100.2 88.8

Nymex crude oil prices increased by 0.9 percent taking cues from approval by the Group of 20 meetings members for Japans stimu lus measures program which led to expectations of rise in demand for the fuel. Additionally, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the oil prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $89.13/bbl and closed at $88.76/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 1.8 percent as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4,834/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.4,853/bbl on Monday. API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to th rise by 1.6 million barrels for the week ending on 19 April 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 0.5 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to shoot up by 0.4 million barrels for the same week. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, decline in Chinas manufacturing data indicated a slow economic growth in the worlds second largest crude consuming nation which will add downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of expectations of favorable manufacturing data from the Euro Zone. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude May13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for April 23, 2013 Support 87.90/87.20 4780/4740 Resistance 89.60/90.10 4870/4900

WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (May 13)

Prev. day 0.9 0.1 0.9

$/bbl

100.4

0.7

0.0

-7.2

-15.5

Rs/bbl

4834.0

1.8

-0.2

-6.3

-11.1
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (April 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.251 231 Prev. day -3.2 -2.4

as on 22 April, 2013

WoW 3.25 1.81

MoM 7.98 8.04

YoY 114.59 125.15

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a mixed note on the back of mixed LME inventories coupled with weakness in DX. Optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp decline in the prices. However, unfavourable existing home sales data from US kept prices under pressure. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported prices to trade on the positive note. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) $/tonne 1893.0 0.6 0.9 -2.0 -8.9 Rs/kg 375.0 0.1 -5.3 -10.1 -11.7 $/tonne Last 6926.0 Prev. day -0.6 as on 22 April, 2013 WoW -4.9 MoM -11.7 YoY -15.3

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack decreased by 0.6 percent on the back of weak economic data from US. Further, rise in worries over global economic growth kept prices under pressure. However, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX cushioned sharp downside in the prices. Further, decline in LME inventories by 0.2 percent also prevented sharp fall in the prices. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $6815/tonne and closed at $6926/tonne yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices ended on positive note and closed at Rs. 375/kg on Monday after touching an intra-day high of Rs 375.8 kg. Depreciation in the Indian rupee supported prices to trade in green. Outlook

MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)

Rs /kg

101.4

0.7

0.2

-2.2

-5.1

$/tonne

15301.0

0.8

-2.7

-9.8

-14.4

Rs /kg

827.2

1.2

-3.3

-10.1

-11.0

$/tonne

2006.0

-0.6

-1.7

-8.2

-5.3

Rs /kg

108.1

0.0

-2.3

-8.2

-1.7

$/tonne

1880.3

0.1

0.5

-3.3

-7.1

Rs /kg

100.3

0.4

-0.5

-3.9

-4.4

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 22nd April 613,075 5,176,850 173,976 1,104,775 259,850 19th April 614,350 5,186,075 172,296 1,110,650 259,850 Actual Change -1,275 -9,225 1,680 -5,875 0 (%) Change -0.2 -0.2 1.0 -0.5 0.0
Source: Reuters

In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note as the weak economic data from US and China has increased the worries among the investors that the demand for the base metals may decline. Further, rise in worries over global economic growth coupled with rise in LME inventories may keep the prices under pressure. Additionally, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX may add downside pressure on the prices. However, expectation of positive economic data from Euro zone may prevent sharp decline in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian rupee may cushion sharp fall in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for April 23, 2013 Support 371/367 99.5/98.5 107/106 100.3/99.3 820/812 Resistance 378/381 101.3/102.1 109/110 102.3/103.3 835/845

Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator MPC Member Tucker Speaks HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Public Sector Net Borrowing Spanish HPI q/q CBI Industrial Order Expectations Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales Country UK China Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe UK Europe UK US US Time (IST) 12:00am 7:15am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm Tentative 3:30pm 6:30pm 7:30pm Actual 50.5 Forecast 51.4 44.2 42.3 49.0 51.1 46.8 46.7 13.9B -14 54.3 419K Previous 51.6 44.0 41.3 49.0 50.9 46.8 46.4 4.4B -2.2% -15 54.6 411K Impact Medium High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High

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