GS #3.

Democratization in ME and Sub-Saharan Africa State Capacity and Democracy Tilly - inverse relationship - easier to mobilize; but not always true But capacity in response to what? Will of people or will of state? Mobilization could refer to military, economic resources, food, industry.... Positioning in the axis is relative to the state's maximum capacity, not a comparative measure between states. For a comparative analysis, you would need to normalize variables of population, GDP, resources,.... Capacity: distribute and redistribute...the state ability to fill in for normal processes...government control of markets and industry... Consider that numbers are skewed because of free-riding on external support (exogenous factors) as from the U.S. Egypt subsidizes bread...distorts the market but also undergirds internal stability. The U.S. doesn't need to subsidize bread because it does not have to buy peace...democracy provides stability. Tilly also refers to positive attitudes toward democratization. Are Islam and Democracy compatible? When Muslims say they want more democracy, do they mean more Islam? Freedom House definition of "free, parly free, not free" - primarily elections plus some other variables... The Map of Freedom: interesting of Africa, percentage of population living in free countries is 30% (subsaharan) ..of northern Africa, 60% The Gini Index - connection between democracy and inequality: inequality should be buffered from the political process as democracy increases... - index is composite between population and value...percentages equal is best case... - in reality, 75% may only control 30% of wealth - the Gini Index is the area between the line of equality and actual distribution - Sweden has lowest...US is .45 - Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen... .38 to .41 - no apparent relationship with freedom index... - is this insulated from the political process and is there a relationship? Summary: we're trying to clarify Tilly's arguments so we can apply them. We begin to realize they are incomplete and not entirely accurate. So, look at the relationships and apply to some countries. It's useful to say that as states mature in democratization, they make alter state capacity...it may increase but then go down as they develop alternate distribution means. What's missing...democratization assumes more robust economic development.. Tilly doesn't tell us how this works. We should assume a democracy will have a growing economy...which will reduce state capacity (taxation, rewards, and punishments rather than state underpinned).

Tilly doesn't address Religion and democracy....be careful to assume democratization is a means of empowering relgious values...Lindberg rejects the cultural piece/context. We assume that mature democracies adopt income taxes to redistribute wealth...increasing equality and decreasing the Gini Index. Think U.S. in 1890s--Rockafellers, Carnegies...Southern Pacific Railroad...the New Deal was arguably a democratic response to concentration of wealth (allow democracy to survive, thwart ground up revolution)...Roosevelt said in the late 1930s that Huey Long was the most dangerous man in America. Unfettered democracy allowing for more freedom allows freedom to rise to power; ------------Africa Challenge the basic assumptions Lindberg makes. Argument: liberalization doesnt lead to elections, but elections that occur in three consecutive events equal bumps in Freedom House index.. Very limited argument challenge...narrow focus. Defines democracy as rule by the people for the people....a process for accountability. He doesn't address how it starts? Decolonization. Why not Liberia? Failed experiment. Slaves who were told not to participate in equality...ethnically diverse mix... Lindberg doesn't address what kind of elections...are they popular vote? Are they competitive? Does more parties equate to competition? No assessment of national unity. But does this go more to how you define the nationstate...where you draw the borders? We neglect that in Africa, national unity is a problem. What then is the explanation for rise in liberalization over time? - outside intervention changed in 80s...narrative changed...support for liberal values rather than power players - globalization: individuals monitoring elections and reporting corruption through cell phones in rural areas....more accountability Look at judiciary scores...as civil liberties increase, a more routinized judicial system should develop. Mali Coup...variety of reasons...purple to anarchy and chaos. You need to neutralize sources of undemocratic power when you democratize (e.g. Military) ---------------Democracy and Terrorism Social movement theory: journey toward violence starts when structure does not allow resolution of grievances. - democracy locks out certain groups Democracy theoretically allows this structure. Who becomes a terrorist?

- popular belief is the uneducated, poor, disadvantaged... - what if terrorist groups want something so different than the existing that violence is the only method? - there are people who eschew democracy...it is fundamentally counter to what they want (ex. al Qaeda) Dalacoura - activism comes from grievance; terrorism is a method of activism; Terrorism as tactic, strategy, and/or logic Simple assumption of US policy: terrorism is more likely to grow in autocratic countries. The opposite view is that terrorism works best in democracies...that the people will respond to fear. Al Qaeda: - the "Far enemy" vs "near enemy" - traditional Islamist is to go after near enemy to purify yourself first, then go far....this is what put Bn Laden in trouble - Caliphate...return to greatness of yesteryear ...but run by the Turks? - they will pick a Sunni...divide will continue with Shi'a GIA in Algeria: - FIS was urban, upper class, anti military...power through elections - GIA was fringe, rural, dispossessed - Dalacoura underplays these aspects - being outcast not necessarily equated to wealth/status (Bin Laden was Saudi) Government repression closes doors and teaches response; Why would democracy not solve repression problems? - God issues guidance and calls for consultation - as a democracy, sticking with Koranic values would work...depending on your interpretation and focus on sovereignty...of Caliph, e.g For US policy, democracy doesn't stop terrorism...but it's better than any other option we have available short of force.