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GS IP # Globalization and China Country that has understood dealing with neighbors for 1000s of years.

What factors have shape China's views on globalization and security? - internal security: history of chaos, PAP is military expenditure...300k personnel for borders - 14 neighboring countries: invading/raiding barbarians - Middle Kingdom narrative - Century of humiliation contradiction: - internal divisions: not monolithic; - size geographically and population: - Great Wall as symbol: isolate and engage - Confucianism world view...family focus and Mandate of Heaven to take case of people...not about me...about us -- no family without state...no individual without family - before 221 BC...China is a bunch of small states, 90% Han -- western and southern are minorities...but huge majority relative to region -- cultural connections to neighboring regions -- isolated provinces due to geography -- wheat vs rice - geogrpahy is fragile...lack for arable land, water shortages, drought, famine, flood -- drives need for order...water management; avoid chaos *** you have to deconstruct western mythology Damage to environment caused by intense agriculture...and then industrialization...impact on water table falling; - 5000 years of irrigation.... Michael Lampton ...paper on limits of Chinese growth due to water shortages Internal struggles that have shaped China? - warring states period...brings China together (language, religion, education) -- Qing Dynasty - invasion and internal dislocation (dynastic replacement) -- Mongols: absorbed...Ming Dynasty arrives after internal revolts - 1911: Rpublican period - External invasion from far neighbors (western, European, Japanese) -- message: it's unavoidable...globalization... -- Chinese response: weakness exposes us to illegitimate hegemon; internal strength is solution Short list of Chinese accomplishments: - gunpowder, noodles, maritime navigation, printing, paper, silk, metallurgy, magnetism, mathematics, astronomy, ...short stories, construction/engineering, medicine, - point: superior civilization...class structure...makes China ripe for Globalization If you are China, how do you approach it today in a world of rivals? - look at the lead barbarian..who is setting the pace - long view of determinants: short histories force short views

- calculus that strength and vulnerability lies in prosperity -- need to transform to counter the barbarians -- fallen behind and must catch up - tributary system: foreign policy approach...number one kingdom, peripherals could operate independent with mutually beneficial trade but nothing that detracted from China; concentric circles...importance defined by value of tribute...kowtow Self interest is a natural law... - difference for China: don't go out of your way to enforce/push self-interest - US is willing to violate sovereignty (including use of sanctions) Summary: historical narrative of global engagement from China's perspective; vulnerable because of who we are; globalization provides both risk and opportunity; like US--civil war, revolution, ...; - 1949-1980: under Mao, behaves more like Qing...consolidating central power, build Party, realize the dialectic, don't trust outsiders; --------------Rising China talk...declinist perspective... - Assumptions -- globalization is about diffusion of power -- zero-sum game: China rise correlates to US decline -- linear thinking...modeling is easy (cycles are harder...calculus approach) -- hegemonic burdens cause decline -- variables contributing to national power assessment are limited (GDP) *** you have to index statistics...per capita for example -- static vs dynamic: counternarrative--change over time in context matters Maritime boundaries - US perspective: international law on maritime boundaries applies (3,12,100,200) - China persepective: our tradition goes back longer than your laws -- 1. Thousand year history of using islands and tributes from islands; records to prove...so UNCLOS is only 50 years old; recently learned how to use existing law to support their claims -- 2. US colluding with Japan to do China in; two slaps: Japan invasions and US not supporting return of Senkaku -- Globalization doesn't change this -- oh by the way, it's the outer line of defense that barbarians used to invade China: fundamental security issue - regional nations perspectives: energy? resources?

Critique the variables--competition proposed by all measure and statistical indicators - western eyes approach: liberalism, equality, balanced equations, predictive analysis without context - it's not inevitable... - concern that US will screw it up...so no harm seems to be better approach - cherry picking occurs...who's statistics are "correct"? Answer: none. What happens in 30 years?

- US has opportunity now to shape China behavior - optimize window...declinist pushes you away Summary: Japan is an exclamation mark for China; sovereignty vs intl norms...balance is changing for China as they learn to deal; on statistics...matter but to a point: quality of training, quality of schools, what do you do with them, what resources do they have? ---------------China in 70s-80s: hard pressed to predict they would adapt in the vein they have - doesn't matter which color the cat is as long as it catches mice (Deng) - social order, adaptation of technology, role of Party Information Age--outing of corruption expands; Numbers don't portray reality; Hong Kong: no indication of relations to China; illegal immigration has potentially swung the other direction (trying to get out); the model for Taiwan that China wants.. - China has always lacked centralization...and understands that it works - indication that future model is likely to allow autonomy (two systems, one world) A2AD is a much better problem that HADR Chinese in Africa - more pushback recently - attack on perceived imperialism - Chinese bring what they need to run their operations whereas Us teaches (nuance) -- possible justification: national interest... lot of people need a lot of jobs - the cheek of a westerner claiming moral behavior... - US/West are in Africa 10-20x more than China - aid can be perceived as neo-colonialist...we need to acknowledge this Larger point: no one method; liberal democracy is not the only solution... - China is experimenting - may find an alternative to liberal democracy - western moral stance doesn't hold up given reality Neo-realist approach....national interest is paramount... Call to pull together African nations because individually they don't have the national power to protect and pursue national interests Danger of lumping geographically "African" nations a African...eg Egypt. Civil Society Organizations - wholly owned by the Party in China - pluralism is not on the menu in China like it is in Africa -- this counts the narrative of Africa uniting -- South Africa and Nigeria are competing for power absent Libya -- tribal and European divisions Summary: China and globalization

- history matters: - national interests matter - everyone has divisions internally that create complications - good and bad (bright and dark side) - threats and opportunities - continuity and changing entity - mutual interaction, not static and geographical Tip of the iceberg: globalization matters...we need to keep up. The reading will always be incomplete; need to strip away preconceptions...statistical models are useful but only to a point....look at history and context and how it changes...how is China reacting to its own successes/failures?