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NSP IP 4 American Grand Strategy after the Cold War Kennan Sweepstakes: _____ Enlargement Nothing has had

staying power that containment had. George HW Bush / Scowcroft Reluctant, hesitant, careful re Soviet Union but events start happening - Tiannenman, East Europe elections, Berlin Wall, ... - methodical response - Chicken Kiev speech: slow down, it will get out of control, "freedom is not the same thing as independence" - does not want American triumphalism to overshadow successes - Fukuyama (policy planning and NSC) - Capitalism and liberal Democracy have won (End of History) - Rolodex President (stresses multilateralism) Existing theories coming out Cold War are not useful. Mearsheimer - why we will miss the Cold War and multi polarity will return to Europe (once the pacifier is taken away...it went happen immediately) So...Grand Strategy needs to adapatible, not designed to foretell. What's the threat? Bush administration: everything is possible Pg 26 economy and moral core, Culture wars, self-indulgence Buchanan - isolationism, fortress America Neocons - take advantage of unipolarity Clausewitz - war is about the peace that follows; but one during Cold War talked about this... Pg 71 Kissinger - everyone has a vision but don't understand the starting point (why Kennan was different - sources of _____ conduct) Scowcroft "the world could be a better place, but don't get carried away" (retrospective) What would he have done with second term? DPG draft - Wolfowitz: keep peer rivals down (primacy) pg 45 - access to resources, prevent nuclear arms race (Globocop), discourage industrial rivals from challenging political and economic order; Defense between promised land (Eagleburger) and crusader state (Wolfowitz, Khalilzad) Somalia had very limited goals up front - get in, deliver good, get out (Bush); Supremacy vs Primacy?

Clinton Administration Economy, not foreign policy; agreed with Bush policies; avoided it; Warren Christopher--smart but not dynamic ("almost life-like"); - very few meetings; Contract Republicans - 10 Planks - only one foreign policy; 1992 Congress not interested either; What core themes emerge from Clinton White House? Few resources to get domestic support to do anything foreign; Mandelbaum (pg 115)--you're wasting your time on social work--Bosnia, Haiti, ... Clinton response: choices between catastrophic and meerly unpalatable; domestics prosperity is priority; sees these issues as undermining global markets; we shouldn't look at great powers as security threat; it's Kaplan and ideas of security threats to globalization--core to Clinton's foreign policy; What happens when you poke China--seminal event; 1953 nuclear threat - Mao gets nukes; two carriers in sea, China pursues conventional parity (blue navy); NATO expansion - way to let them join the End of History club; stabilize East (pg 122); Bosnia but not Rwanda - Second order effects: UN gets involved internal to a state (not between states as intended), NATO becomes cover story, US involvement required to salvage--significantly affects next decade; Rwanda lesson - R2P, this is what happens when you don't get involved early; --------Neocons and Bush Jr Democrats who gave up on democrats; anti-Communist; don't fit in realist or liberalist school; internationalists; Krystol "liberals who had been mugged by reality"; put force of US behind it--liberal ends, realist means; Criticism of US foreign policy: too much nation building Recognize terrorism threat but not how to follow through Clark's: Plan Dilenda - Latin for Carthago Dilenda est - Carthage must be destroyed Rid the world of evil? Battle Hymn of the Republic 2002 NSS Threat: crossroads of high technology and radicalism (WMD and terrorists) and tyrannical states that support them; Problem: no face for enemy, groundwork for preemption; war against a tactic? Could you call it a war on Islam? Can it be an ideological war? Pope Urban II Clermont speech: domestic agenda for power increase; go get Jerusalem....it has to be intentionally vague to allow building US power; *** intentionally left open ended because... Iraq - democracy as a demonstration to region;

Cheney and Rumsfeld are not neocons (never liberals); Bush jr and Rice are not. Feith, Khalilzad, Wolfowitz, ....); 9/11 allows the neocons perspective to be realized...in position to influence Bush; NSS 02 explicitly tells you threat, where we want to go, and what it looks like when we get there; liberalism; building institutions; not intended as unilateralist document; global ends with lots of international support; Rumsfeld - quick action in Iraq; not our responsibility what happens after we take out Hussein; created massive contradictions for consumers Back door arrival to unilateralism when international support doesn't materialize; Fukuyama - Wolfowitz is a Leninist; world will go toward liberalism and we can speed it up (vs Marxist...it will happen gradually, let it happen) NSS 2010 - lot of talk about tough decisions but no specifics about what those decisions and priorities will be; the arctic nation???

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