NSP IP #5 The Future of Power, Nye How do we think about the instruments of power and the role they

can play in developing and implementing a grand strategy. What is power? - does not like perceived power (pg 4) Power defined as resources - pg 10 - does not talk to how you use it or to whom you are applying it; Power defined as behavioral resources (pg 10) - looks like Pape's force->targets>mechanism->change model (FS 6408) Nye - what is it we want to measure? Relational definition of power - pg 14 - the ability to produce outcomes; not just resources you have; strategy appears to be incorporated into the definition; Latent capability vs latent power? Problem with relational definition - you can't measure the outcome in advance; cause and effect lines difficult to draw; how do you develop and prioritize the means; risk of circularity: why did he get what he wanted? He was powerful. Why is he powerful? Because he got what he wanted. Tautological. Why do me care about measuring it? Nye: material vs ideation - take into account non material Net assessment - far more sophisticated than Nye portrays; he adds that it's more than power conversion process...there's a whole field of power that isn't considered (intangible) Liberal realism? Trying to challenge realist model (neoclassical) of hard power relationship? Once he does that, then he can provide a different description of the world and draw different theoretical outcomes of how we want to behave; idea of transformation then becomes different because there are three chess boards, not one: - military power - economic power - transnational relations - outside government control; non-state actors, bankers, terrorists, hackers Smart power has an evaluative tool built into it...so it is circular; doesn't work. It's about synchronization - becomes synonymous with strategy; not terribly useful because it doesn't tell you how to go about it;

Soft power is a better option because it forces you to choose...you could choose hard power instead; Are smart power and off-shore balancing able to coexist in a strategy? No-smart power involves engagement--alliances, institutions, and networks (pg 234) Hard power is coercion: sticks and carrots; zero-sum approach; Soft power is co-opting without coercing; based on positive sum world; getting people to want what you not them to want; (pg 91) The ability to have soft power is underpinned at some point by hard power (related in production); Thucydides - fear (stick), honor (soft power), interest (carrot); Nye: co-optation is, in the long term, cheaper End of soft power is getting what you want to create an enabling environment for the policies you want; Pg 21: Hard to soft continuum: HARD.Command->coerce threat pay sanction frame persuade attract<- Co-opt.SOFT Three...or six?...sources of soft power: - Attractiveness of US culture: Kennan idea in X; McDonalds; (book: Cultural Cold War) -- problem of impact - could be positive or negative or both over time; -- (pg 92) - benignity (how it relates), competence (product of effects), and charisma (relationship to ideals and values) -- to significant measure, the government does not control it but can take advantage of it -- Agenda-Setting: - Persuasion: - Ideology: - Policy: **if you try to use it, it will likely fail; Is soft power available to others? Nye says authoritarian attempts at soft power are fundamentally flawed because of the value of liberalism; Paradoxical and potentially diminishing effects of soft power; Soft power application: fragile, two-way, long-term, less recognizable, Our adversaries and enemies (and allies) think we're extremely good at this: culture, military, economic, information, diplomacy...it's apparent in their responses; nth order effects thinking is necessary, but the problem is that you can't know what those effects will be;

Nye - attempts to centrally control are counterproductive; instead, get the overall structure correct, be true to your interests and values, and let it work; we need decentralized responses to individual contexts;

Smart Power Strategy: military lead, public goods, common goods, promote open international economy and commons (sea, space, Internet), mediate to mitigate escalation, don't crusade, develop international rules and institutions (pg 234). Is the march of liberty irreversible? If so, then the effort to sell/market ourselves is unnecessary; we just need to make ourselves better and stay true to our values.