Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| April 25, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| April 25, 2013

Highlights
US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 1.4 percent in March. German Ifo Business Climate dropped to 104.4-mark in April. US Durable Goods Orders fell by 5.7 percent in the last month. UKs BBA Mortgage Approvals gained to 31.2K-mark in prior month. Asian markets are trading on a positive note on the back of expectations of stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan in its policy meeting which will be held tomorrow. US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 1.4 percent in March as against a fall of 0.7 percent in February. Durable Goods Orders dropped by 5.7 percent in last month from rise of 5.6 percent in February.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY** SENSEX** DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5836.9 19179.4 14676.3 1578.8 16563.4 1935.3 58497.8 13843.5 91.43 1423.40 2282.90 6999.00 102.09 Prev. day 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 2.3 2.5 1.1 0.1 2.7 0.0

as on April 24, 2013 WoW 2.6 2.4 0.4 1.7 7.7 0.6 10.6 -0.1 5.5 2.3 -2.0 -0.6 0.0 MoM 3.3 2.4 1.0 1.4 7.9 -2.9 3.8 15.3 -5.3 -10.7 -20.1 -10.8 #N/A YoY 12.2 4.9 12.9 15.1 16.7 -1.6 -5.3 46.2 -11.7 -13.4 -25.7 -13.8 0.7

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, US equities also traded on a mixed note which also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of unfavorable core durable and durable goods orders data from the US. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.965 and closed at 83.03 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters ** Indian Markets were closed on the occasion of Mahavir Jayanti

US Dollar (% change)

as on April 24, 2013 Last Prev. day -0.2 -0.2 0.49 0.48 WoW 0.3 -0.6 0.22 0.24 MoM 0.0 0.1 0.03 0.02 YoY 4.5 -3.5 2.61 2.62

Dollar/INR
Dollar Index

83.03 54.30 54.37 54.38

The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.2 percent On Tuesday. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from crude oil and gold importers. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of expectations that countrys economy will grow by 6.4 percent in the current fiscal year as per the Economic Review report of the government. Weakness in the DX also prevented further fall in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.42 and closed at 54.30 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.2,450.10 crores rd ($453.69 million) as on 23 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital rd inflows stood at Rs.58,072.40 crores ($10,763.80 million) till 23 April 2013. Outlook

US $ / INR (Spot) ** US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) ** US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) **

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of dollar demand from oil and gold importers. However, sharp downside will be cushioned as a result of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX.
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for April 25, 2013 Support 54.20/54.05 Resistance 54.50/54.65

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| April 25, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. However, unfavorable economic data from Euro zone capped sharp gains in the currency. Further, expectation of interest rates cut by ECB kept Euro under pressure. German Ifo Business Climate declined by 2.3 points to 104.4-mark in April as against a rise of 106.7-level in March. Italian Retail Sales fell by 0.2 percent in February from earlier decline of 0.4 percent a month ago. Belgium National Bank of Belgium (NBB) Business Climate was at -14.7mark in April with respect to fall of 15-level in March. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3034 and closed at 1.3014 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. However, expectation of rise in Spanish unemployment rate may cap sharp gains in the currency or even reversal. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 70.40/70.15 70.75/70.90 valid for April 25, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) ** Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) ** Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) ** 1.3014 70.60 70.7 70.7 Prev. day 0.1 0.2 0.12 0.11

as on April 23, 2013 WoW -0.1 0.6 -0.64 -0.66 MoM 1.8 -0.1 0.31 0.28 YoY -1.4 1.62 1.59

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5267 82.819 82.93 Prev. day 0.20 0.037 0.59

as on April 23, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX supported the currency to trade in green. However, negative CBI realized sales from the country capped sharp gains in the sterling pound. UKs British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals gained to 31.2K-mark in March as against a rise of 30.6K in February. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realized Sales was at -1-mark in the month of April. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5287 and closed at 1.5267 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, countrys GDP is expected to grow by 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2013, which may support currency to trade in green. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for April 25, 2013 Support 82.50/82.20 Resistance 83.00/83.25 GBP / INR (Spot)** GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE)** GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX)**

WoW 0.2 -0.43 -0.11

MoM 0.9 0.06 0.34

YoY -5.4 -2.13 -2.61

82.94

0.59

-0.11

0.37

-2.60

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| April 25, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen marginally depreciated in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, decline in corporate services price index also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Japans Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) declined by 0.2 percent in the month of March. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 99.76 and closed at 99.47 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, expectations of stimulus measures from central bank of the country will also exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for April 25, 2013 Support 54.80/54.40 Resistance 55.40/55.60

JPY (% change)
Last 99.47 0.5455 55.13 55.10 Prev day 0.0 -0.05 1.53 1.46

as on April 23, 2013 WoW 1.4 -1.64 -0.68 -0.72 MoM 5.3 -5.13 -3.88 -3.92 YoY 22.3 -15.75 -15.50 -15.54

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) ** JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) ** JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) **

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on April 25, 2013

Indicator Italian Bank Holiday Spanish Unemployment Rate Prelim GDP q/q Unemployment Claims Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Country Europe Europe UK US US Time (IST) All Day 12:30pm 2:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 26.5% 0.1% 352K Previous 26.0% -0.3% 352K Impact Medium High High Medium

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