Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 25, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedbac k is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 25, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 1.4 percent in March. German Ifo Business Climate dropped to 104.4-mark in April. US Durable Goods Orders fell by 5.7 percent in the last month. UKs BBA Mortgage Approvals gained to 31.2K-mark in prior month. Asian markets are trading on a positive note on the back of expectations of stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan in its policy meeting which will be held tomorrow. US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 1.4 percent in March as against a fall of 0.7 percent in February. Durable Goods Orders dropped by 5.7 percent in last month from rise of 5.6 percent in February. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, US equities also traded on a mixed note which also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of unfavorable core durable and durable goods orders data from the US. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.965 and closed at 83.03 on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.2 percent On Tuesday. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from crude oil and gold importers. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of expectations that countrys economy will grow by 6.4 percent in the current fiscal year as per the Economic Review report of the government. Weakness in the DX also prevented further fall in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.42 and closed at 54.30 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.2,450.10 crores rd ($453.69 million) as on 23 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital rd inflows stood at Rs.58,072.40 crores ($10,763.80 million) till 23 April 2013. UKs British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals gained to 31.2K-mark in March as against a rise of 30.6K in February. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realized Sales was at -1-mark in the month of April.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot)** 54.25 Prev day 0.1

as on 24 April, 2013 w-o-w -0.1 m-o-m 0.3 y-o-y -3.1

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3014

0.1

-0.1

1.8

-1.4

Dollar Index NIFTY**

83.03

-0.2

0.3

0.0

4.5

5836.9

0.0

2.6

3.3

12.2

SENSEX**

19179.4

0.0

2.3

2.4

4.9

DJIA

14676.3

-0.3

0.4

1.0

12.9

S&P

1578.8

0.0

1.7

1.4

15.1

Source: Reuters

** Indian Markets were closed on the occasion of Mahavir Jayanti

The Euro appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. However, unfavorable economic data from Euro zone capped sharp gains in the currency. Further, expectation of interest rates cut by ECB kept Euro under pressure. German Ifo Business Climate declined by 2.3 points to 104.4mark in April as against a rise of 106.7-level in March. Italian Retail Sales fell by 0.2 percent in February from earlier decline of 0.4 percent a month ago. Belgium National Bank of Belgium (NBB) Business Climate was at -14.7-mark in April with respect to fall of 15-level in March. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3034 and closed at 1.3014 against dollar on Wednesday. Japans Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) declined by 0.2 percent in the month of March.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 25, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased by 1.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments. Further, expectation of rise in physical demand after the biggest drop supported prices. Additionally, rise in central bank purchases acted as a positive factor for the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1432.9/oz and closed at $1430.8/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on positive note in the yesterday trading session tracking spot gold prices and closed at Rs.26388/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 26485/10 gms on Wednesday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1430.8 26350.0 Prev. day 1.3 0.0 as on 24 April, 2013 WoW 3.9 3.1 MoM -10.8 YoY -12.8 -8.7

1428.5

1.5

2.6

-10.9

-13.4

$/oz

1423.4

1.1

2.3

-10.7

-13.4

Silver
Taking cues from rise in spot gold prices along with the upside in the base metals pack, Spot silver prices rose by 0.8 percent in the yesterdays trading session. Further, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX supported prices to trade on positive note. However, unfavourable economic data from US and Euro zone capped sharp gains in the prices. The white metal prices touched an intra-day high of $23.33 /oz and closed at $23.09/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices increased by 0.2 percent taking cues from spot silver prices and closed at Rs. 42892/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 43365/kg on Wednesday.

Rs /10 gms

26388.0

0.9

2.8

-10.9

-8.6

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 23.1 45130.0 Prev day 0.8 -0.1

as on 24 April, 2013 WoW -0.8 -0.5 MoM -19.4 YoY -25.0 -20.7

$/oz $/ oz

2291.0 2282.9

-0.4 0.1

-1.7 -2.0

-19.1 -20.1

-25.8 -25.7

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, expectation of favourable economic data from UK may support prices. However, expectation of decline in initial Jobless Claims data from US may cap sharp upside in the prices. Further, Spanish unemployment rate is expected to increase which may keep prices under pressure. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may support prices to trade in green. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for April 25, 2013 Support 1428/1418 26240/26050 23.00/22.85 42500/42200 Resistance 1444/1451 26540/26660 23.40/23.70 43300/43700

Rs / kg

42892.0

0.2

-1.7

-20.7

-23.0

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 25, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices gained by 2.5 percent yesterday taking cues from less than expected rise in US crude oil inventories coupled with sharp fall in the gasoline inventories. Further, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments also supported an upside in oil prices. Weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the crude prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $91.72/bbl and closed at $91.40/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices traded on a flat note and closed at Rs.4,847/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.4970/bbl on Wednesday. EIA Inventories Data. As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories increased less than expectations by 0.9 million barrels to 388.60 million th barrels for the week ending on 19 April 2013. Gasoline stocks fell by 3.9 million barrels to 217.80 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles rose by 0.1 million barrels to 115.30 million barrels for the last week. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (May 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 91.1 101.9 91.4 Prev. day 2.1 1.5 2.5 WoW 5.1 3.9 5.5 as on 24 April, 2013 MoM -5.7 -7.1 -5.3 YoY -11.7 -13.5 -11.7

$/bbl

101.7

1.4

4.1

-7.3

-13.9

Rs/bbl

4847.0

0.0

3.1

-7.9

-11.3
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (April 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.168 227.3 Prev. day -1.5 -2.3

as on 24 April, 2013

WoW -0.86 -0.31

MoM 5.87 6.31

YoY 110.72 117.51

Source: Reuters

Natural Gas
EIA Inventories Forecast US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories and US natural gas inventory are expected to increase by 33 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending on 19th April 2013 Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of less than expected rise in US crude oil inventories which led to expectations of rise in demand for the fuel. Additionally, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the prices. Further, forecast for rise in the UKs GDP data will act as a positive factor for the crude prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will also support an upside in crude oil prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude May13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for April 25, 2013 Support 90.90/89.80 4920/4860 Resistance 92.40/93.25 5000/5045

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 25, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a positive note on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, decline in LME inventories also supported prices to trade positive. However, weak economic data from US and Euro zone has increased the worries among the investors that the demand for the base metals may decline which capped sharp gains in the prices. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) $/tonne 1907.0 1.1 0.8 -0.8 -8.3 Rs/kg 378.6 2.4 -0.7 -9.3 -11.3 $/tonne Last 6999.0 Prev. day 2.7 as on 24 April, 2013 WoW -0.6 MoM -10.8 YoY -13.8

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack increased by 2.7 percent on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, decline in LME inventories by 0.2 percent supported prices to trade in green. However, unfavourable economic data from US and Euro zone capped sharp gains in the prices. The red metal touched an intraday high of $7053/tonne and closed at $6999/tonne yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices ended on positive note and closed at Rs. 378.6/kg on Wednesday after touching an intra-day high of Rs 380.3 kg. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note as the weak economic data from US and Euro zone has increased the worries among the investors that the demand for the base metals may decline. Further, rise in worries over global economic growth coupled with rise in LME inventories may add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, expectation of rise in Spanish unemployment rate may keep prices under pressure. However, optimistic global market sentiments, weakness in DX along with expectation of favourable economic data from UK may cushion sharp decline in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian rupee may cushion sharp fall in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for April 25, 2013 Support 376/372 101/100.2 109.5/108.8 101.4/100.8 817/809 Resistance 381/384 103/104 111/112 102.8/103.5 832/840

MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)

Rs /kg

102.1

0.5

0.4

-1.0

-5.3

$/tonne

15250.0

0.9

-1.0

-9.7

-12.8

Rs /kg

825.0

0.8

-1.0

-10.0

-10.4

$/tonne

2044.3

1.8

1.3

-4.2

-1.5

Rs /kg

110.2

1.7

1.4

-4.0

1.1

$/tonne

1915.0

2.2

2.2

-0.1

-4.2

Rs /kg

102.2

2.0

2.0

-0.4

-2.4

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 24th April 620,375 5,167,075 175,860 1,092,550 258,800 23rd April 621,600 5,176,200 174,546 1,098,600 258,825 Actual Change -1,225 -9,125 1,314 -6,050 -25 (%) Change -0.2 -0.18 0.8 -0.6 0.0
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 25, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Spanish Unemployment Rate Prelim GDP q/q Unemployment Claims Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Country Europe UK US US Time (IST) 12:30pm 2:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 26.5% 0.1% 352K Previous 26.0% -0.3% 352K Impact Medium High High Medium

www.angelcommodities.com